SOUND OFF: MEDIA PREDICTS AUBURN TO WIN 2015 SEC CHAMPIONSHIP

[Scott Marshall]

the Auburn Tigers were picked by media in attendance of SEC Media Days to capture the 2015 SEC Championship. Auburn received 96 SEC Championship votes, while the Alabama Crimson Tide was close behind with 80. The Georgia Bulldogs were third with 28 votes. The Hogs were picked to finish 6th in SEC and 4th in West. I predict 4th or 5th in SEC and 3rd in West. WHAT DO YOU THINK?

See full story here: http://www.nwahomepage.com/fulltextsports/d/story/media-predicts-auburn-to-win-2015-sec-championship/34657/yHJyq-F4BUGl8x2nN7TP6Q

[Hollywood_HOGan45]

A little higher than I thought they would have us.

I thought they would have aTm and/or Ole Miss in front of us.

[Biggus Piggus]

Media must have settled on Auburn because:

1. Alabama's quarterback situation is questionable.
2. Auburn has Bama, Georgia, Ole Miss, Mississippi State at home.
3. Everyone must be skeptical of Texas A&M after the way the Aggies flopped around last year.

The Arkansas game is great-big-huge-ginormous for TAM in 2015. Look at the Aggies' SEC schedule -- Arkansas at Arlington, Mississippi State (home), off, Alabama (home), at Ole Miss, South Carolina (home), Auburn (home), pushover game, at Vanderbilt, at LSU.

Wouldn't you be ecstatic if Arkansas had a similar schedule? If the Aggies could open SEC play 1-0, they would be set up for a chance to take command of the West race.

[Sportster365]

I don't understand how they saw LSU finishing 3rd over Arkansas.

[Big Papa Satan]

I don't understand how they saw LSU finishing 3rd over Arkansas.

Most likely due to where the game will be played.

[Biggus Piggus]

the Auburn Tigers were picked by media in attendance of SEC Media Days to capture the 2015 SEC Championship. Auburn received 96 SEC Championship votes, while the Alabama Crimson Tide was close behind with 80. The Georgia Bulldogs were third with 28 votes. The Hogs were picked to finish 6th in SEC and 4th in West. I predict 4th or 5th in SEC and 3rd in West. WHAT DO YOU THINK?

See full story here: http://www.nwahomepage.com/fulltextsports/d/story/media-predicts-auburn-to-win-2015-sec-championship/34657/yHJyq-F4BUGl8x2nN7TP6Q

Understand the way they assemble these predictions. It's a simplified but illogical approach. They ask the media to rank SEC teams from 1-14. Almost nobody does this by predicting the outcomes of games and coming up with projected SEC records. They just wing it, gut-feel it.

This process naturally overrates "name" teams, because a substantial % of the assembled media know nothing about most of the SEC. Those are the guys who can't imagine a team like Arkansas being better than middle of the pack.

A lot of college football teams would finish behind Auburn, Alabama and LSU, of course. The West is tough.

[navyhog24]

I don't understand how they saw LSU finishing 3rd over Arkansas.

LSU's QB problems along with them trying to replace Chavis, especially with Kevin Steele, will have them finishing towards the bottom of the division. Auburn is so over-hyped right now. Muschamp is not the end-all-be-all defensive coordinator that people make him out to be.

[go hogues]

Auburn is probably the most complete team on paper. Everyone else in the league has a glaring weakness in one form or another. They are a pretty safe pick this season, IMO

[hawg1221]

SEC Media picks have only been accurate 5 times since 1992, when picking who wins the conference. And I also thought they would have voted Texas A&M and Ole Miss ahead of us, so I'm surprised there.

[Atlhogfan1]

For the Hogs, I can't get past the schedule.  Only SECW team with back to back conference road games twice this season and who they are against plus the A&M game in Dallas leading into the first back to back SEC road games.  That is a lot to overcome.  Depth also comes into play in this conference.  It is why I didn't believe the OM and MSU hype last October.  In year 3 of this rebuild, I have a hard time believing we have the depth to get through this schedule better than 4-5 SEC wins if that.  And the last time we lost this many impactful players off of the defense was after the 2011 season.  I'll have to look at all of the schedules in more detail to do a guess.

Muschamp's presence is playing a role in AU's prediction.

LSU is going to be a tough out this season.

A&M's schedule is nice and Sumlin and his recruiting at some point will live up to the hype. 

I'm guessing OM will look strong again for a while this season until they hit that final 4 game SEC stretch. 

[bigdaddyhawg]

Media must have settled on Auburn because:

1. Alabama's quarterback situation is questionable.
2. Auburn has Bama, Georgia, Ole Miss, Mississippi State at home.
3. Everyone must be skeptical of Texas A&M after the way the Aggies flopped around last year.

The Arkansas game is great-big-huge-ginormous for TAM in 2015. Look at the Aggies' SEC schedule -- Arkansas at Arlington, Mississippi State (home), off, Alabama (home), at Ole Miss, South Carolina (home), Auburn (home), pushover game, at Vanderbilt, at LSU.

Wouldn't you be ecstatic if Arkansas had a similar schedule? If the Aggies could open SEC play 1-0, they would be set up for a chance to take command of the West race.

I agree our game with them will be a key game for both teams.

But I think they are a paper tiger.  I think we were the better team last fall, we just didn't understand it yet, and they were very lucky.

I think we'll dominate them this fall, and I don't care who their next over-rated QB is, or what his idiotic trademark name will be.

If we don't, I'll be sleeping through the season, thankfully.

[bigdaddyhawg]

the Auburn Tigers were picked by media in attendance of SEC Media Days to capture the 2015 SEC Championship. Auburn received 96 SEC Championship votes, while the Alabama Crimson Tide was close behind with 80. The Georgia Bulldogs were third with 28 votes. The Hogs were picked to finish 6th in SEC and 4th in West. I predict 4th or 5th in SEC and 3rd in West. WHAT DO YOU THINK?

See full story here: http://www.nwahomepage.com/fulltextsports/d/story/media-predicts-auburn-to-win-2015-sec-championship/34657/yHJyq-F4BUGl8x2nN7TP6Q

Man alive, the media surely does LOVE them some Gus Bus, and now that the greatest DC ever to walk a sideline is teamed with them, I'm shocked they didn't get every vote!!

[Atlhogfan1]

I agree our game with them will be a key game for both teams.

But I think they are a paper tiger.  I think we were the better team last fall, we just didn't understand it yet, and they were very lucky.

I think we'll dominate them this fall, and I don't care who their next over-rated QB is, or what his idiotic trademark name will be.

If we don't, I'll be sleeping through the season, thankfully.

A&M and Ole Miss have a mindset they must change.  They are soft, female, finesse teams except OM's defense.  It comes from their head coaches and the philosophies.  Both teams could have nice records and rankings heading into what has been an annual pillowfight in late October. 

[HogFanatic]

Honestly I am more worried about Auburn than I am Alabama.
And I am far more worried about Tennessee than I am LSU.

I saw a publication yesterday that picked the Hogs to lose to both Alabama and LSU but still win 10 games. Nonsense if you ask me. LSU should be a win, and Alabama will be a toss.

Auburn is going to be very tough though. Their quarterback runs that offense really well. We should remember well. They brought him in against us last year and he threw like 3 touchdowns. Looked VERY sharp.

[bigdaddyhawg]

A&M and Ole Miss have a mindset they must change.  They are soft, female, finesse teams except OM's defense.  It comes from their head coaches and the philosophies.  Both teams could have nice records and rankings heading into what has been an annual pillowfight in late October. 

I agree.  Those 7 on 7 offenses lead to soft teams.  Look at Oklahoma over the last few years.  They are as soft as a bag of marshmallows.

[Steef]

Gonna beat em like a yard dog.

[PonderinHog]

Gonna beat em like a yard dog.

Kill them!

[Biggus Piggus]

A&M and Ole Miss have a mindset they must change.  They are soft, female, finesse teams except OM's defense.  It comes from their head coaches and the philosophies.  Both teams could have nice records and rankings heading into what has been an annual pillowfight in late October. 

I wish our team could be as "soft" as the females in my family. One daughter in black belt training. She is 14. The older one does crossfit routines that would leave me dead.

[razorbacker3]

Shows how smart they are. They pick auburn 2nd in the west , but winning the SEC... How does that work?

[sowmonella]

Question.. What is the make up of the media? Does each SEC school have the same number of homer voters? I'm not saying anyone would vote for the school they primarily cover. Just curious how the voting panel is made up.

Thanks for your kind and informative responses. Sow :razorback:

[navyhog24]

Honestly I am more worried about Auburn than I am Alabama.
And I am far more worried about Tennessee than I am LSU.

I saw a publication yesterday that picked the Hogs to lose to both Alabama and LSU but still win 10 games. Nonsense if you ask me. LSU should be a win, and Alabama will be a toss.

Auburn is going to be very tough though. Their quarterback runs that offense really well. We should remember well. They brought him in against us last year and he threw like 3 touchdowns. Looked VERY sharp.

That was the first game of the game of the season. Our defense wasn't what it was at the end of the season.

[HogFanatic]

That was the first game of the game of the season. Our defense wasn't what it was at the end of the season.

I understand your point.
But what I'm saying is that he is a very capable QB from what I saw.
I think Auburn is poised to be pretty tough. They're one of the few teams out there returning a good QB.

Luckily we are among that group of teams returning an experienced and proven QB. Bodes well for us.

Just saying that I am more worried about Auburn than Alabama at this point. Maybe that speaks to the point of naming Auburn the preseason favorites for the SEC Championship, maybe it doesn't.

[go hogues]

Shows how smart they are. They pick auburn 2nd in the west , but winning the SEC... How does that work?

Can't bite the hand that feeds them (in this case, the state of Alabama) gotta put Bama up front somehow

[Atlhogfan1]

The Hogs did a pretty good job defensively against AU and Johnson in their last 3 possessions of the first half.  Playing a Gus offense is about playing assignments and being disciplined.  I think the Hogs' defense would have looked much different against AU later in the season.  The positives about this season is we get a week off before the game and AU will have been tested and we should have an idea of what Gus is doing offensively with Johnson at qb by that point in the season. 

[Hogwild]

Nonsense if you ask me. LSU should be a win, and Alabama will be a toss.

It is hard to win in those two stadiums.

Aside from LSU, Bama has only lost twice this decade at home. Both times it was against Heisman trophy QBs.

Aside from Bama, LSU has only lost once this decade in Tiger Stadium.

[HiggiePiggy]

I worry more about Alabama more because it is on the road.   How we do against Tennessee will either make me feel better about going into Alabama or make me feel worse about it.   Both Alabama and auburn are going to be tough.  I feel better about a game at home though more than on the road.   

[bigdaddyhawg]

It is hard to win in those two stadiums.

Aside from LSU, Bama has only lost twice this decade at home. Both times it was against Heisman trophy QBs.

Aside from Bama, LSU has only lost once this decade in Tiger Stadium.

I worry more about Alabama more because it is on the road.   How we do against Tennessee will either make me feel better about going into Alabama or make me feel worse about it.   Both Alabama and auburn are going to be tough.  I feel better about a game at home though more than on the road.   

Truth is every SEC game is tough, and every SEC road venue is tough.

Now, some are tougher that others ... 

[Oklahawg]

I would like to see a grid of wins/losses in all conference games (that could be then translated into a prediction).

UA may lose in Baton Rouge but we've shown repeatedly that we can hang with the Tigers in BR and I see no reason to think that changes this year.

Being at Bama after playing at Tennessee and traveling to Arlington is a rough gauntlet. Somehow come out of that 3-0 and those blingy shoes will be on every Playoff radar in the country.

[Atlhogfan1]

I would like to see a grid of wins/losses in all conference games (that could be then translated into a prediction).

UA may lose in Baton Rouge but we've shown repeatedly that we can hang with the Tigers in BR and I see no reason to think that changes this year.

Being at Bama after playing at Tennessee and traveling to Arlington is a rough gauntlet. Somehow come out of that 3-0 and those blingy shoes will be on every Playoff radar in the country.

That is what you have to do especially in the SECW so you can try and determine tie breakers as I don't see any team going unbeaten. 

[duckman]

You lost me at media predicts.....

[Biggus Piggus]

Shows how smart they are. They pick auburn 2nd in the west , but winning the SEC... How does that work?

A guy who submitted a ballot said the ballot asked them to rank SEC teams 1-14. Somebody takes the ballots and deconstructs them into East and West division rankings.

They take the numbers of first-place votes to proclaim the media's choice of SEC champion. Auburn got more first-place votes than Alabama did but fewer total points in the top-to-bottom ranking.

It is a methodology problem. There's no way they should claim Auburn's the top pick when they got fewer total points.

[GoHogs1091]

Muschamp is not the end-all-be-all defensive coordinator that people make him out to be.

It is really not known how much Muschamp learned from Nick Saban when Muschamp worked with Saban (in regards to learning defensive concepts from Saban).  Saban would be an excellent person to learn from because Saban worked with and learned from Bill Belichick, Gary Gibbs, and George Perles.  George Perles had previously been a defensive Coach for the "steel curtain" Defense of the Pittsburgh Steelers.  Gary Gibbs is probably a top 3 of all-time collegiate defensive Coach (we saw that first hand in the 1987 Orange Bowl when Hatfield was our Head Coach).

Muschamp probably did learn some defensive concepts from Saban, but was it enough to help Muschamp overcome his deficiencies as a defensive Coach that could be very problematic for him this go-around as the DC in the SEC.

One aspect that is not in question, and that is the ultimate litmus test for Muschamp and Chavis will be how will they do coordinating a Defense on a team who utilizes a fast paced/high tempo Offense.  Are Muschamp and Chavis a high enough of a level of a defensive mind to overcome the potential problems that can occur to a Defense when the Defense's own team's Offense is not on the field for a large amount of time?

[Biggus Piggus]

It is really not known how much Muschamp learned from Nick Saban when Muschamp worked with Saban (in regards to learning defensive concepts from Saban).  Saban would be an excellent person to learn from because Saban worked with and learned from Bill Belichick, Gary Gibbs, and George Perles.  George Perles had previously been a defensive Coach for the "steel curtain" Defense of the Pittsburgh Steelers.  Gary Gibbs is probably a top 3 of all-time collegiate defensive Coach (we saw that first hand in the 1987 Orange Bowl when Hatfield was our Head Coach).

Muschamp probably did learn some defensive concepts from Saban, but was it enough to help Muschamp overcome his deficiencies as a defensive Coach that could be very problematic for him this go-around as the DC in the SEC.

One aspect that is not in question, and that is the ultimate litmus test for Muschamp and Chavis will be how will they do coordinating a Defense on a team who utilizes a fast paced/high tempo Offense.  Are Muschamp and Chavis a high enough of a level of a defensive mind to overcome the potential problems that can occur to a Defense when the Defense's own team's Offense is not on the field for a large amount of time?

Excuse me, but where in this whole thing do you tie Muschamp to Brent Venables? I missed it somehow.

[870hogfan]

Wasn't Auburn overhyped last year too?

[Pig in the Pokey]

A little higher than I thought they would have us.

I thought they would have aTm and/or Ole Miss in front of us.

3 voted us champion.

[hawginbigd1]

IMO if you picked Auburn to win it, you are doing it right. Ton of returning talent, upgraded coaching, top notch recruiting class with instant starters, and a very dynamic passing QB. Easily in preseason should be the favorite! Why I am on record months ago that JJ will be SEC offensive player of the year, and when they come to town it will decide the west.

[Cinco de Hogo]

Right now going into the season, Awbarn has the only QB in the SEC that I would project as a future NFLer.  Dobbs may be but I somehow doubt it.  Add the GusMusBus top ten recruiting classes and it's just a safe pick. 

These guy aren't going out on a limb or thinking outside the box.

[Inhogswetrust]

SEC Media picks have only been accurate 5 times since 1992, when picking who wins the conference. And I also thought they would have voted Texas A&M and Ole Miss ahead of us, so I'm surprised there.

Bingo! When the media starts to do a better job with predictions only then will I pay attention to them for that.

[870hogfan]

IMO if you picked Auburn to win it, you are doing it right. Ton of returning talent, upgraded coaching, top notch recruiting class with instant starters, and a very dynamic passing QB. Easily in preseason should be the favorite! Why I am on record months ago that JJ will be SEC offensive player of the year, and when they come to town it will decide the west.

They will go home unhappy too.

[Theolesnort]

Isn't the media vote at the SEC meetings for the champion pretty much the kiss of death?

[Biggus Piggus]

Right now going into the season, Awbarn has the only QB in the SEC that I would project as a future NFLer.  Dobbs may be but I somehow doubt it.  Add the GusMusBus top ten recruiting classes and it's just a safe pick. 

These guy aren't going out on a limb or thinking outside the box.

Uh, Dak Prescott.

[hawginbigd1]

They will go home unhappy too.

+1 WPS  :razorback:

[duckman]

Isn't the media vote at the SEC meetings for the champion pretty much the kiss of death?

It's the equivalent of being on the cover of SI.

[Cinco de Hogo]

Uh, Dak Prescott.

Like I said.

But it is only my opinion.

[wupigsuey]

Which means AU will not win the sec

[Biggus Piggus]

Like I said.

But it is only my opinion.

Dak Prescott = first-team all-SEC quarterback, 3,400 passing yards and 27 TD passes, scored 15 TDs by himself.

Jeremy Johnson = 828 career passing yards. Started one half of one game. Ever. Now a junior.

[Hoggish1]

Nonsense.

Somebody explain how Allbarn is picked to win the SEC and not win the West.

[Biggus Piggus]

The curiosity to me: Last season, Malzahn had every chance to promote Johnson to starting QB, build his offense around this kid for the next three seasons. Johnson played the first half of the Arkansas game and threw for 200 yards, huge number. Then Malzahn felt compelled to rely the rest of the season -- beginning with the second half of the Arkansas game -- on a future rookie free agent NFL defensive back wannabe. Nick Marshall's ability to run the read option was more important, in Malzahn's mind, than Johnson's ability to run and throw.

Auburn fans told us all last offseason that Malzahn was going to TRANSFORM Marshall's ability as a run-pass dual threat. He was going to "Cam" his ass! And Marshall was a very inconsistent passer.

Now we are to believe that Auburn is just fine living without Marshall's mastery of the read option. Johnson is a perfect fit! Maybe Malzahn really can change his stripes after spending a whole offseason working his offense around Johnson. It is going to be interesting to see what he comes up with.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

The curiosity to me: Last season, Malzahn had every chance to promote Johnson to starting QB, build his offense around this kid for the next three seasons. Johnson played the first half of the Arkansas game and threw for 200 yards, huge number. Then Malzahn felt compelled to rely the rest of the season -- beginning with the second half of the Arkansas game -- on a future rookie free agent NFL defensive back wannabe. Nick Marshall's ability to run the read option was more important, in Malzahn's mind, than Johnson's ability to run and throw.

Auburn fans told us all last offseason that Malzahn was going to TRANSFORM Marshall's ability as a run-pass dual threat. He was going to "Cam" his ass! And Marshall was a very inconsistent passer.

Now we are to believe that Auburn is just fine living without Marshall's mastery of the read option. Johnson is a perfect fit! Maybe Malzahn really can change his stripes after spending a whole offseason working his offense around Johnson. It is going to be interesting to see what he comes up with.

Without delving into the depths of analysis I will simply support what you say by saying that it is a long, hard, tough grind to win the SEC West and a road that is beset with many significant obstacles. It has to be earned, not handed to you by the media.

[NuttinItUp]

A guy who submitted a ballot said the ballot asked them to rank SEC teams 1-14. Somebody takes the ballots and deconstructs them into East and West division rankings.

They take the numbers of first-place votes to proclaim the media's choice of SEC champion. Auburn got more first-place votes than Alabama did but fewer total points in the top-to-bottom ranking.

It is a methodology problem. There's no way they should claim Auburn's the top pick when they got fewer total points.

Thanks for explaining. They should change the methodology, to be sure.