What realistic career QB stats can Brandon Allen break this year?

[MJ2]

Since this is his 3rd year coming up and assuming he stays healthy, we may see his name in the books for a while.

[hoggusamoungus]

Since this is his 3rd year coming up and assuming he stays healthy, we may see his name in the books for a while.

Most criticized QB on Hogville?

[Theolesnort]

Be the first QB to win 12 games in one season. And more if he can. LOL

[presidenthog]

Be the first QB to win 12 games in one season. And more if he can. LOL

He would probably still have haters if he did this.

[factchecker]

In terms of Arkansas Razorback career passing records, B.A. can rank high in a few statistical categories.

Passing TDs

Currently sitting at the #6 position with 34 career touchdown passes. He only needs 19 td's to pass Tyler Wilson for the #4 position.

If B.A. throws for 20 td's again he will pass Matt Jones for the #3 spot.  He needs 24 to take the #2 spot from Clint Stoener.  If he has a career year, and throws for 29 td's he will overtake the #1 spot from Ryan Mallett.

Passing Yards

Brandon does not rank high on total career passing yard but a good year could move him up.  B.A. currently sits at the #11 position with 4023 all time passing yards.  If he throws for at least 2000 yards he will quickly propel himself to the #4 all time passing yardage position behind Wilson, Mallett, and Stoener (in respective order).   It would take pretty much a 4000 yard season to get the #1 spot, so..... probably not gonna happen.

Overall, Brandon could move his name up considerably with a great year.  However, the ultimate goal is to improve his overall SEC win total. In order to do so he needs to improve his 52.5 overall completion percentage. In conclusion, it would be nice for Brandon to be the first Razorback quarterback with a SEC championship.  :razorback:

Also for those who want to know - Brandon has thrown 18 career interceptions.  It's hard to get the INT ranking because so many on the list threw 0 due to the lack of attempts (e.g. Tretola).

citation: http://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/schools/arkansas/passing.html

[Rison Razor Hog]

In terms of Arkansas Razorback career passing records, B.A. can rank high in a few statistical categories.

...

Also for those who want to know - Brandon has thrown 18 career interceptions.  It's hard to get the INT ranking because so many on the list threw 0 due to the lack of attempts (e.g. Tretola).

citation: http://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/schools/arkansas/passing.html

The way to solve that is to rank the ones with a minimum of say 250 or 300 attempts. That way you get at the starters and major backups while avoiding the "Tretola" situation.

[HappyHogFan]

As a JR for my XBox Hogs, he just finished the season last night with his third consecutive national title, 22,549 passing yards, 108 touchdowns, and a career record of 40-2.

Does that count?

And he REFUSED to come back for his 5th year, I tried EVERYTHING.

[factchecker]

The way to solve that is to rank the ones with a minimum of say 250 or 300 attempts. That way you get at the starters and major backups while avoiding the "Tretola" situation.

I wish the site I am using had a stat limiter where I could place certain qualifiers to rank.  However, I reranked them based on pass attempts and then compared their career interceptions.   

Brandon Allen has attempted 646 passes in his career (#7 overall).  Because of this I chose 400 as the minimum attempt #.  Surprisingly out of all career passers who attempted at least 400 passes B.A. ranks..... #1 with the fewest interceptions thrown, 18 interceptions.

With that being said, Ryan Mallett only threw 19 interceptions with 814 attempts and a completion percentage of 60.3   Now, to get a better picture, one would need to compute the interceptions to attempt ratio.

For example:
B.A. has attempted 646 passes, 18 which resulted in interceptions.  Brandon averages one interception per 35.88 or 36 attempts.

Mallett attempted 814 passes, 19 which resulted in interceptions.  Mallett averaged one interception per 42.8 or 43 attempts. Pretty awesome!

Tyler Wilson: 948 attempts, 26 interceptions = one interception per 37 attempts.

Clint Stoerner: 1023 attempts, 37 interceptions = one interception per 28 attempts.

Casey Dick:  850 attempts, 34 interceptions = one interception per 25 attempts.

Matt Jones:  755 attempts, 30 interceptions = one interception per 25 attempts.

So the interception to attempt ratio ranking would be:

1. Mallett
2. Wilson
3. B.A.
4. Stoerner
5. Dick and Jones

[Rison Razor Hog]

I wish the site I am using had a stat limiter where I could place certain qualifiers to rank.  However, I reranked them based on pass attempts and then compared their career interceptions.   

...

1. Mallett
2. Wilson
3. B.A.
4. Stoerner
5. Dick and Jones

Good info. It's really amazing how great Mallett was. Considering some of the peanut gallery critiques, B. A. isn't doing too badly, either!

WPS GHG

[factchecker]

now for the money stat:
TD to INT Ratio

Brandon Allen has 34 touchdown passes in his career (#6 overall).  Because of this I chose 30 as the minimum touchdown passes.  Once again, I am surprised. Out of all career passers who completed at least 30 touchdown passes, B.A. ranks #1 with the fewest interceptions thrown, 18 interceptions.  However, Mallett only has 19 interceptions to his 62 touchdowns thrown. WOW!

Overall TD to INT Ratio

Mallett: 62 td 19 int = 3.26 tds per interception

Wilson: 52 td 26 int = 2 tds per interception

B.A.: 34 td 18 int =  1.88 tds per interception

Jones: 53 td 30 int = 1.76 tds per interception

Dick: 47 td 34 int = 1.38 tds per interception

Lunney: 33 td 28 int = 1.17 tds per interception

[aar0n]

Pretty impressive and eye opening to see how high BA actually is on some of these lists.  And before anyone pipes in and says "Mallet and Wilson only played 2 years!"  Well, so has BA.  While he may not be a world-beater, we are very very fortunate to have him.  I can assure you there are much MUCH MUCH worse out there, we've had plenty. 

[factchecker]

With all of these stats- there is one factor missing:

The GAMER stat. No, not the XBOX, Nintendo stat.  The gamer stat simply can't be measured.  It is the ability to be clutch in high pressure situations. The whole ice water in veins cliche.  Despite all of the stats, I would never put Matt Jones behind B.A. or maybe even Tyler Wilson.  That guy had the play maker gene.  Miracle on Markham, 7OT at Ole Miss etc. etc.

Ryan Mallett, on the other hand, was a gamer and overall quarterback package.  Mallett will probably go down as the best TRUE quarterback in Razorback history.

Brandon Allen is improving.  He has to raise that completion %.  He also has to become clutch when needed.  He needs at least one Casey Dick Miracle on Markham II moment.  I believe that is the reason he gets so much "hate".  He doesn't have that endearing moment to the general fans.  Stat geeks, like me will appreciate his stats.  If he wants to be respected he has to be the general of a highly successful team.  Can he do it?

I think he can.

[presidenthog]

So what we are getting at is b.a. has a chance to really cement himself in the conversation with stoener and wilson. He could ,albeit a small chance, pass mallett for most tds all time and if he was to accomplish that I don't see how he wouldn't have a huge chance to be the first of any of them to win it all.

[Boarcephus]

Mallett attempted 814 passes, 19 which resulted in interceptions.  Mallett averaged one interception per 90.4 or 90 attempts.  Big difference!

My math doesn't come up with that.  814 passes with 19 interceptions comes on to a pick every 43 passes and not 90

[factchecker]

My math doesn't come up with that.  814 passes with 19 interceptions comes on to a pick every 43 passes and not 90

How in the world did I do that?  Thank you... I probably have some other misplaced decimals or whatever.  Feel free to check my math.

[Boarcephus]

How in the world did I do that?  Thank you... I probably have some other misplaced decimals or whatever.  Feel free to check my math.

  No biggie.  I read your post and thought, "Wow!" and then, wait a minute, that's not right.

[presidenthog]

How in the world did I do that?  Thank you... I probably have some other misplaced decimals or whatever.  Feel free to check my math.

You sir are a great poster please keep us updated with all things factual so we can keep some of the hate at bay.

[DeltaBoy]

BA should set some records. He has not had the talent around him.

[factchecker]

You sir are a great poster please keep us updated with all things factual so we can keep some of the hate at bay.

I'm just killing time till the UTEP game. I've already been watching film on UTEP, Toledo and Tech. It's hard to get a read on UTEP and Tech seeing that they are starting relatively new QB's. Mahomes played substantial minutes late in the season for Tech but none against us.  Toledo has a dangerous running game and are efficient with the no huddle read option- quick pass game.  However, they are losing their ENTIRE starting offensive line. 

We should start the season 3-0.  If I had to rank the danger level of each game. It would be:

1. Tech- Mahomes, in my opinion, is much better than Webb.  They will also be looking for payback.  We still are too big and strong up front offensively and defensively.  I don't know how they can stop our run game. If they slip up and lose to one of the weaker opponents before us, it could be an UGLY game.

2. Toledo-  Trap game personified.  After what should be a blowout win over UTEP, our guys will be very confident.  They might also be looking forward to Tech or AnM.  I don't believe our coaches will let them do this.  We also have struggled in Little Rock recently.  Ever since the ULM  debacle.  We have only won one game against FCS Stamford 31-21.  If we are dialed in and pissed off, I think we could win this game by 21 plus.

3.  UTEP-  They have a really good running back Aaron Jones and a physically talented defensive end Roy Robertson-Harris (6'7" 255 lbs.).  However, they are replacing a quarterback and lack the overall talent and size to pose a threat. 

Fun Fact: former Razorback Kelvin Fisher Jr. is now playing for UTEP

BONUS:
UTM is our annual FCS opponent.  They are not Nicholls State so I don't expect a 70 point game.  However, I do expect a huge win for the Hogs.  It should be fun watching the student section seeing that it is Halloween night.  Funny enough, UTM will be dressed up like Auburn for Halloween.  Seriously, the SkyHawks wear the exact same uniforms as Auburn http://www.uni-watch.com/2007/12/11/%E2%80%99hawks-copycats-of-tigers/.
We also play UTM and Auburn back to back.

[factchecker]

Sorry for the off-topic tangent. Also, just in case someone infers that I am criticizing WMS b/c our recent poor play, I'm not. I'm not going to get into the great stadium debate.  The Hogs could play in Russia and I'm booking a flight, depending on finances at the time.  :razorback:

[Tusks]

I think he will throw for over 2,700 yards with 26 TD's and 4 INT's.

IMO if EVERYTHING clicked right you might see him throw for 3,000 yards and 30 TD.

30 TD w/under 5 INT would be stellar.

[secfan30]

In terms of Arkansas Razorback career passing records, B.A. can rank high in a few statistical categories.

Passing TDs

Currently sitting at the #6 position with 34 career touchdown passes. He only needs 19 td's to pass Tyler Wilson for the #4 position.

If B.A. throws for 20 td's again he will pass Matt Jones for the #3 spot.  He needs 24 to take the #2 spot from Clint Stoener.  If he has a career year, and throws for 29 td's he will overtake the #1 spot from Ryan Mallett.

Passing Yards

Brandon does not rank high on total career passing yard but a good year could move him up.  B.A. currently sits at the #11 position with 4023 all time passing yards.  If he throws for at least 2000 yards he will quickly propel himself to the #4 all time passing yardage position behind Wilson, Mallett, and Stoener (in respective order).   It would take pretty much a 4000 yard season to get the #1 spot, so..... probably not gonna happen.

Overall, Brandon could move his name up considerably with a great year.  However, the ultimate goal is to improve his overall SEC win total. In order to do so he needs to improve his 52.5 overall completion percentage. In conclusion, it would be nice for Brandon to be the first Razorback quarterback with a SEC championship.  :razorback:

Also for those who want to know - Brandon has thrown 18 career interceptions.  It's hard to get the INT ranking because so many on the list threw 0 due to the lack of attempts (e.g. Tretola).

citation: http://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/schools/arkansas/passing.html

So in reality he could easily be in the top 4 of TD's and Yards; yet this poor guy gets blasted more than any QB I can remember. I mean even Peanut Adams had a ton of fans.

[stan the man]

One reason he gets criticized is because the media makes him out to be so great and he can't live up to all of that. For example how many times did he deliberately throw out of bounds last year. More than I can ever remember from any QB. On Pig Trail last nite Bo and Mike were really bragging him up. I hope he can live up to that because if so we will definitely have a good year

[Lake City Hog]

So you take it out on BA because the media praises him? Please tell me that you are kidding! FEEBLE!!!!!

People on this board are constantly praising a 2nd or 3rd teamer and questioning why they aren't starting. I have read some of the most ridiculous notions as to why BA is the starter, read just how many games that HE has cost us and how much better off we will be when he is gone. But, that post might just top them all.

It takes an entire team(including coaches) to win games and an entire team to lose games. Go back to year 1 and you will find more than 1 game where BB had a big negative impact on the outcome. Go back to last year and you can find a game or so where another player and/or the OC had a major negative impact on the game results. But in most instances BA caught the grief!

[HappyHogFan]

So in reality he could easily be in the top 4 of TD's and Yards; yet this poor guy gets blasted more than any QB I can remember. I mean even Peanut Adams had a ton of fans.

I guess you don't remember Mustain and Dick then, those poor kids both got hammered beyond all comprehension out of petty stupidity by a bunch of darned adults

[31to6]

Since this is his 3rd year coming up and assuming he stays healthy, we may see his name in the books for a while.

He could end up holding the Arkansas record for SEC Championships.

[trphog]

I am going to make the prediction that BA is going to complete over 60% of his passes this year. If he does that and stays healthy over the course of the year, I am betting someone takes a late round flier on him in the late rounds of the 2016 NFL draft. They are going to see a kid who doesn't turn the ball over, doesn't need to be taught a pro system or how to take a snap from under center. Also, a good sized kid with all of the intangibles. Not necessarily a stats prediction but my prediction for him non-the-less.

[hoghiker]

Not a rhetorical question. Has a U of A QB ever went from solid to great from his junior to senior year? Bull, Kirkland? I remember them but not sure how it went season to season. Calcagni maybe?

[tampahog]

Given that Brandon is a senior and our backups don't have much game experience, I think it's important that coach give the second teamer whomever that may be as many reps as possible.  if we want 2016 to be special, we need to go in with at least some relevant experience at the QB position.  CBB has a balancing act this year in that he wants win and pad Brandons stats but long term he really needs to settle on who his quarterback will be for next year this fall so he can gain relevant game experience.  Would love to see our #2 get 4 to 6 quarters of quality game experience and not just running the clock out

[lefty08]

Given that Brandon is a senior and our backups don't have much game experience, I think it's important that coach give the second teamer whomever that may be as many reps as possible.  if we want 2016 to be special, we need to go in with at least some relevant experience at the QB position.  CBB has a balancing act this year in that he wants win and pad Brandons stats but long term he really needs to settle on who his quarterback will be for next year this fall so he can gain relevant game experience.  Would love to see our #2 get 4 to 6 quarters of quality game experience and not just running the clock out

Doubtful that happens, and it isn't about padding stats. Its about having big enough leads in 5 or 6 games to allow that. I don't see that happening

[tampahog]

Doubtful that happens, and it isn't about padding stats. Its about having big enough leads in 5 or 6 games to allow that. I don't see that happening

Agree I don't think padding stats is a high priority of CBB but if he'd like to claim an all SEC QB as part of his recruiting arsenal much like he does with linemen and running backs to the NFL, this could be a year that gives him that opportunity if the numbers are there (along with some signature wins orchestrated by BA).  Given that, he may still have to make a choice on stats vs. future experience.

[lefty08]

I don't think coaches see it that way, the good coaches at least. He will worry about next year, next year

[Dugann]

NOT bad company that I think he will end up with.... not bad at all

[bennyl08]

Let's assume BA goes 210/350 for 60% accuracy, 2500 yards, and 20 td's to 10 int's (last year was 190/339, 2285, 20:5, so the above is a pretty reasonable guess.

For hogs with min 100 attempts, he currently ranks 14th in accuracy. With the above stat line, he would jump to 10. For min 200 attempts, he go from 11 to 7th, and for min 300 attempts, he'd jump to 5th.

As mentioned, he's currently 11th in yards, and simply repeating last year would jump him to fourth (actually only needs 1834 yards). However, there's over a 1500 difference between 4th and third. Expecting 3400 yards from BA is a bit much given what we do.

Simply repeating his stat line from before would jump BA from 6th all time to third in passing td's. 24 td's which isn't out of the question would bump him to second all time. However, if he can get 29 which is within the realm of reasonable possibility especially if a few more of those rb carries become passes to the rb's, then he would be in sole possession of first. Looking at attempts/td, Mallett is first with an incredible 1 td every 13.1 pass attempts. BA is currently 7th at 19 even. IF BA tosses 350 passes and gets 20 td's next season, it drops to 18.44, but he stays the same. If he tosses 25 tds on 350 passes, he drops to 16.9 and jumps up to third behind mallett and jones (14.2). Even if he throws 29 td's and moves into first all time td's, he'd still be at 15.8 and in third.

BA currently ranks 10th in fewest career INT's for qb's with min. 100 attempts. Increase that to 200, and he easily ranks first. Now, if we use the above stat line (just because 20:5 is hard to duplicate), he ties at 6th (greater than 200 attempts). If we repeat the stats of last year, he is in second. If we look at att/int, he's currently in third. Repeating last years stats puts him in second (Mallet is at 1 int for every 42.84 passes, Allen would be at 42.82...) while using the above stat line would keep him in third.

BA is currently 7th in completions and the above stat line would only bump him to second (remaining 44 completions short of tying Wilson). He would have to complete less than 189 passes to not at least tie for second (last year hit on 190) and 152 to tie for third.

BA is also currently 7th in attempts. The above stat line also puts him in second place but now would be 27 attempts shy of Stoerner. He needs 302 attempts to tie 2nd with wilson (attempted 339 last year) and 220 to tie for third.

[Großer Kriegschwein]

Let's assume BA goes 210/350 for 60% accuracy, 2500 yards, and 20 td's to 10 int's (last year was 190/339, 2285, 20:5, so the above is a pretty reasonable guess.

For hogs with min 100 attempts, he currently ranks 14th in accuracy. With the above stat line, he would jump to 10. For min 200 attempts, he go from 11 to 7th, and for min 300 attempts, he'd jump to 5th.

As mentioned, he's currently 11th in yards, and simply repeating last year would jump him to fourth (actually only needs 1834 yards). However, there's over a 1500 difference between 4th and third. Expecting 3400 yards from BA is a bit much given what we do.

Simply repeating his stat line from before would jump BA from 6th all time to third in passing td's. 24 td's which isn't out of the question would bump him to second all time. However, if he can get 29 which is within the realm of reasonable possibility especially if a few more of those rb carries become passes to the rb's, then he would be in sole possession of first. Looking at attempts/td, Mallett is first with an incredible 1 td every 13.1 pass attempts. BA is currently 7th at 19 even. IF BA tosses 350 passes and gets 20 td's next season, it drops to 18.44, but he stays the same. If he tosses 25 tds on 350 passes, he drops to 16.9 and jumps up to third behind mallett and jones (14.2). Even if he throws 29 td's and moves into first all time td's, he'd still be at 15.8 and in third.

BA currently ranks 10th in fewest career INT's for qb's with min. 100 attempts. Increase that to 200, and he easily ranks first. Now, if we use the above stat line (just because 20:5 is hard to duplicate), he ties at 6th (greater than 200 attempts). If we repeat the stats of last year, he is in second. If we look at att/int, he's currently in third. Repeating last years stats puts him in second (Mallet is at 1 int for every 42.84 passes, Allen would be at 42.82...) while using the above stat line would keep him in third.

BA is currently 7th in completions and the above stat line would only bump him to second (remaining 44 completions short of tying Wilson). He would have to complete less than 189 passes to not at least tie for second (last year hit on 190) and 152 to tie for third.

BA is also currently 7th in attempts. The above stat line also puts him in second place but now would be 27 attempts shy of Stoerner. He needs 302 attempts to tie 2nd with wilson (attempted 339 last year) and 220 to tie for third.

I say 225/340 for 2400 yards and 26 TDs/8 INTs all because Enos will put him in a position to complete passes.

I don't even need to mention what effect BAs play will have on the running game. JW will be at 1300/15, AC at 1250/15, KW at 700/8.

WPS

[bennyl08]

I say 225/340 for 2400 yards and 26 TDs/8 INTs all because Enos will put him in a position to complete passes.

I don't even need to mention what effect BAs play will have on the running game. JW will be at 1300/15, AC at 1250/15, KW at 700/8.

WPS

I basically just decided to force it at 60% and then chose simple numbers close to what we ran last year and wanted to play it ultra conservative on the td/int. Also, I think his yards improve a bit more than that. I think we will have a few more big yard passing plays this year than previously. This could hurt our TOP a bit, but I think it becomes a wash with rushing yards. A few more quick strike drives early on could lead to more rushing in the second half of games, as well as just a more honest defense. Overall, I think our yards per game improves some, but I really think our ppg goes up by 10 or so, possibly more depending on how our defense does.

{soapbox, feel free to ignore}
Though, I'm not a fan of running a prevent offense. You play like you are down 14 points until there is 5 minutes left and you are up 21 or if you are up by 42 in general. Obviously using you want to lean ground game when you have a lead a bit more than otherwise, but not to the point where you risk punting just to shave off a few extra seconds up by 14 in the third sort of thing. Going 3 and out with 3 incomplete passes is just as bad in that situation as well, if not worse. Just a fan of keeping the foot on the gas. Going for a play action pass on third and second type of thing. Also, I think you should also play lights out with the second string offense. It does the backup qb no good to hand off a few times late in the fourth. If you are up enough that you put the backups in, let them play. Tell them, they have 2 minutes to go score a td or else we lose. You do risk a bit more injury than just running out the clock with the backups, but it gives them some real live experience rather than just running the clock.