Offer Sheet Ratings

[Oklahawg]

A healthy PM exchange with PaintBallHog produced this. I thought I might share it with the board in the anticipation it produces healthy discussion. It is kind of a "down" period (especially for football recruiting; and, RD is on vacation) so this may help tide us over.

The popular opinion on the board has created some sort of "rank/order" for the timing of the offer. It deserves to be formalized:

6* - offer occurs prior to player's JR year
5* - offer occurs prior to the player's JR year (final) spring drills/evals
4* - offer occurs summer camp/combines/7-7 prior to player's SR year
3* - offer occurs once senior season has started for the player
2* - offer occurs after the senior season has ended
1* - offer occurs after the bowl-season dead period

You get a Willie Sykes with big-time offers who gets an offer almost on signing day. That blows things out of the water, obviously. When we've talked about "late developing" talent that is reflected in the 2-3* ratings. (This is the cousin of the 2-3* "coached up" or "developmental" talent.) This is the late-developing offer where we suddenly get in on a player. Maybe we didn't know they were interested. Maybe they decommitted. Maybe a coaching change opens a door late. 1-3* offers are not bad, in this scheme, but typically can only occur because your 4-6* offers don't pan out. And, most schools do not have their 100+, 200+, 300+ "offers" pan out. You only get 25 LOIs.

The strongest assessment of a staff's value of a recruit is the targeting of talent as a SO or JR, combined with an offer before everyone else finds them while doing spring evals when the recruit is finishing their JR year. Baron Browning for this staff might be an example. Kody Walker by Petrino.  The early offers indicates a strong level of comfort in the skills of the recruit on the part of the staff. No questions to be answered by transcripts, police blotters, or game film as a senior.

[jackflash]

I think one of the things we over look in recruiting is. Not all kids are going to play early. If he doesn't play is he going to stick around until it his time.

[Peter Porker]

A couple of thing....when i think "offer sheet" I'm thinking which other schools have offered. Also, this is a flawed way of thinking because many kids do not attend camp and that's where a majority of your early offers occur. Sometimes an athlete doesn't express interest in a program until their senior year when the program happens to catch their eye.

[jgphillips3]

That's definitely an interesting way to look at it.  Maybe grades like A+, A, B+, B, C+ & C and would be better to use so as not to confuse with ability stars.

[nwahogfan1]

A lot of the kids that get offers early is because they matured early and there is not much left on the upside.  Texas used to get very high scores in recruiting because they signed a lot of them.  But these kids did not get significantly better and the Longhorns went to average.

Lets find those kids with good grades and character who have great upsides to them. They may not have lots of stars now beside their name but will get better and stay out of trouble.  They want to get better and have room to grow..

The trouble is identifying those kids with huge upsides and want to get better..  Easy to see the 5 star kids now. 

[pigroots]

A lot of the kids that get offers early is because they matured early and there is not much left on the upside.  Texas used to get very high scores in recruiting because they signed a lot of them.  But these kids did not get significantly better and the Longhorns went to average.

Lets find those kids with good grades and character who have great upsides to them. They may have lots of stars beside their name but they want to get better and have room to grow..

Exactly +1

[ZERO]

Interesting idea, Okla. The other users have added some credible comments, as well.

So what would you call a JUCO player like Dominique Reed? Does he still fall under the 1* category? This is not like a challenge to your system or something, I understand that no one is calling Reed a 1* from a standpoint of practicality. I'm just wondering if you keep him a 1* to be consistent with your ratings, or if there is maybe another way to rate really good JUCO players

[Oklahawg]

Interesting idea, Okla. The other users have added some credible comments, as well.

So what would you call a JUCO player like Dominique Reed? Does he still fall under the 1* category? This is not like a challenge to your system or something, I understand that no one is calling Reed a 1* from a standpoint of practicality. I'm just wondering if you keep him a 1* to be consistent with your ratings, or if there is maybe another way to rate really good JUCO players

Yup, a 'low traffic' discussion thread!

Not sure how JUCOs fit, honestly. So much of JUCO recruiting is about filling an immediate need, not the long-term development mentioned above.

There is always a lot of chatter in the winter months about how early UA offered, whether a recruit is "Plan B", etc. This is a way of helping ID that. And, explaining "offer sheet", it helps track our competitors:
   * do recruits commit to 5-6* offers more frequently than 3-4* offers?
   * how successful are other schools at identifying talent early and landing those recruits?
   * if UA beats the pack with an earlier offer, does it help us fend off late suitors (a common assumption)?

Letter grades might be better. Or new labels.

[Bubba's Bruisers]

I guess I'm not seeing the significance of this particular ranking.  How is it any more legit than any other ranking?  Or rating.

[Oklahawg]

I guess I'm not seeing the significance of this particular ranking.  How is it any more legit than any other ranking?  Or rating.

Do we ID elite prospects early? Does UA offering create a trend of others offering? What is our "hit" rate with "early/elite" offers? Who has similar or better "hit" rates?

A possible analogy: if we score 3X more often on drives we start with "run right, pass left" then that is useful data. It is marginally indicative of something (might be worthwhile, might not) but certainly gives us something to break down.

[navyhog24]

Exactly +1

A great example of that would be Jalin Barnett. He never improved through his senor year and programs had stopped recruiting him.