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OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)

Started by WILL CLINTON, August 28, 2011, 09:41:36 pm

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onebadrubi


widespreadsooie

Lines (sides) of interest for the coming weekend:

ECU +20 @ FL
MS St +3.5 vs LSU
AR St. +10.5 vs MIZ
GT -28 vs Tulane
UGA -19.5 @ Vandy
ND -11.5 @ UVA
SMU -4.5 vs No TX
Hogs -21 vs TOL

 

SPAL


SPAL

I've made it a rule never to play the hogs, even when the line looks ridiculously easy like -21. I'm sticking to my rules this year. I've been burned too many times

jkstock04

Upon a closer look...Toledo returns a lot of starters from last year. Have a senior qb and are coming off a 9 win season. Looks like they put up a lot of points.

The -21 makes more sense now. I still think it's a hot looking bet...but not bet your entire bankroll type of bet like the Southern Cal/AR State game was this past weekend.
Thanks for the F Shack. 

Love,

Dirty Mike and the Boys

jkstock04

Quote from: sir-pigs-a-lot on September 07, 2015, 10:36:31 pm
I've made it a rule never to play the hogs, even when the line looks ridiculously easy like -21. I'm sticking to my rules this year. I've been burned too many times
Hogs were one of the hottest teams ATS in college football last year.
Thanks for the F Shack. 

Love,

Dirty Mike and the Boys

onebadrubi

Quote from: jkstock04 on September 07, 2015, 10:44:03 pm
Hogs were one of the hottest teams ATS in college football last year.

That's Bielema's Mo.  He always has been good ATS.  He will make some hog gamblers money in his time here

SPAL

Quote from: jkstock04 on September 07, 2015, 10:44:03 pm
Hogs were one of the hottest teams ATS in college football last year.

I've been doing this longer than 1 season.

DadVader1

Quote from: sir-pigs-a-lot on September 07, 2015, 05:08:52 pm
Everybody is on va tech. From past experience, when everybody is going the same way, it has always gone the other way.

Va tech is 1-5 ats in the last 6 at home.

I'm going Ohio state -14 small

Good call on the Hogville Curse!

That dropped me to 2-3 for -0.5 units for opening weekend. 

husker71

I have never bet on/against the hogs(since I moved here and became a fan) and never will   Bad Karma in my book    if I ever need to cash a bet that bad I will stop betting   and I have been betting for about 48 years

hogsanity

People ask me what I do in winter when there is no baseball.  I will tell you what I do. I stare out the window, and I wait for spring.

"Anything goes wrong, anything at all, your fault, my fault, nobodies fault, I'm going to blow your head off."  John Wayne in BIG JAKE

Hawgndaaz

Quote from: husker71 on September 08, 2015, 09:02:26 am
I have never bet on/against the hogs(since I moved here and became a fan) and never will   Bad Karma in my book    if I ever need to cash a bet that bad I will stop betting   and I have been betting for about 48 years

Betting for the hogs with BB has been good the past few years.

Didn't post anything but went 2-2 this weekend with zero research. Dumb.

widespreadsooie

My philosophy on betting on/against the Hogs is it's the team I know most about. I wouldn't play them for action but when I do play them it's because I have a pretty spot on hunch that turns a profit many times before it will not.  In my opinion, you aren't doing it right if you aren't betting on/against the team you know most about. If you happen to be a fan of that team, it's important to stay objective or the entire point is moot. Now with that being said, I will not normally bet against us unless we're talking 52-0 Bama.

 

Hawgndaaz

I bet against the hogs vs bama in 2008 and 2012. Pretty much the only time I can remember.

onebadrubi

Off of memory alone I think I went 4-2 on the hogs last year. 

Auburn L
TTech W
NIu     W
UGA    L
Bama    W 
And Texas W

Before last year I would have never touched Arkansas football.  Bielema will cover more than he doesn't.  I think we were 9-3 last year ATS or something?

Supermark101

Why is Missouri at Ark St. only at -10 1/2 with a money line of -427? Even @ASU, it seems like stealing money.

onebadrubi

I think it's an unsure line.  You have an sec team that defense is questionable going into a upper scale high school stadium to play someone that just got steam rolled by a top 25 team.  Mizzou should cover this easily but I think the Mizzou team on the road might be sleeping and hence the low line, I guess?  I think it actually opened at liek -13 or -12 and has been bet down to -10.5, which is even more confusing. 

If it's sitting at -10.5 come friday or saturday, I'll probably take a flyer.

Just put in big on Arkansas -21 -120. 

onebadrubi

Quote from: Surfing8 on September 08, 2015, 04:58:34 pm
I think we snuck up on a lot of the betting public last year, and some of the game-time lines we had reflected that.

Unfortunately for betting purposes I think we're more of a known commodity this year.  Regardless of our W/L record, I don't think we'll have as good of an ATS record.

Well, you will also have to factor in we go to Bama and they look just as good as ever, so the betting public will probably push that line up if it's not already a double digit.  We go to Ole Miss and for whatever reason the world loves them right now, so they will have a 4-7 point swing for being home team over last year.  The same things can be said for tenner as well, so I think we will see just as good of "chances" but then again, it all comes down to play on the field anyways. 

DadVader1

September 09, 2015, 04:37:35 pm #8468 Last Edit: September 10, 2015, 09:02:51 am by DadVader1
I'm playing way too many games this weekend but am keeping it at 1/2 unit each while I experiment a bit more.  On the first five picks, I'm tailing a guy who went 9-1 ATS last week.  The next six picks are spreadsheet picks based on a few system combinations that did well last week.

Tail picks
Georgia -19.5
A&M -30
OK pk
Ark -22
MO -10.5

Spreadsheet picks
Syr -4.5
Ga Tech -28.5
VA +12.5
MD -7.5
Rutg -2
N. Mex -3.5

Added one more tail pick for 1/2 unit:
FL -21

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

No Bell, Bryant, or Pouncey for Steelers tonight.

I'm probably stupid, but Steelers +7 / 1 unit.  Also Steelers 100.00 to Win 250.00
Let's make some waves.

onebadrubi

Quote from: Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson on September 10, 2015, 11:57:00 am
No Bell, Bryant, or Pouncey for Steelers tonight.

I'm probably stupid, but Steelers +7 / 1 unit.  Also Steelers 100.00 to Win 250.00

I can't help but think about last years thursday night football catastrophes.  Home teams or favorites covered every game I believe BIG. 

I think the real line should be around -10 but then everyone would be on the steelers and the line makers don't want that. 

I am think about parlaying Patriots ML and Cubs Ml tonight.

Sanctified Swine

4-1 on my big five plays of the week last week

my big 5 this week..

Rutgers -3.5 over wash st.
Utah  - 12 over Utah St.
UCONN -7 over Army
New Mexico - 3.5 over Tulsa
UTSA +17 over Kansas St.

hogsanity

Quote from: onebadrubi on September 10, 2015, 12:09:32 pm
I can't help but think about last years thursday night football catastrophes.  Home teams or favorites covered every game I believe BIG. 

I think the real line should be around -10 but then everyone would be on the steelers and the line makers don't want that. 

I am think about parlaying Patriots ML and Cubs Ml tonight.

looks like weather could be a factor tonight. Heavy rains and lightning possible. Chance is 70%+
People ask me what I do in winter when there is no baseball.  I will tell you what I do. I stare out the window, and I wait for spring.

"Anything goes wrong, anything at all, your fault, my fault, nobodies fault, I'm going to blow your head off."  John Wayne in BIG JAKE

yraciv


 

dffhogs

Quote from: hogsanity on September 10, 2015, 04:16:40 pm
looks like weather could be a factor tonight. Heavy rains and lightning possible. Chance is 70%+
Was liking the over at 51 until I saw the weather. Still may take it.

jkstock04

Taking La Tech, 5 units.

Think there is a bit of overreaction to the Vandy game.
Thanks for the F Shack. 

Love,

Dirty Mike and the Boys

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

Quote from: dffhogs on September 10, 2015, 04:22:57 pm
Was liking the over at 51 until I saw the weather. Still may take it.

I generally favor the over more in a sloppy weather game
Let's make some waves.

mckinneyhog5

Quote from: jkstock04 on September 10, 2015, 04:50:57 pm
Taking La Tech, 5 units.

Think there is a bit of overreaction to the Vandy game.
WKU opened at -3.... Now LAtech is -2 1/2.  Going with WKU at home in a shoot out.  Also taking the over at 63.
Quote from: mckinneyhog5 on April 07, 2019, 10:29:55 pmGuys, we have hired the BEST coach that we could have hired. Musselman is gonna rock it here like we haven't seen since the early 90's. Just sit back and watch it unfold! We WILL be a nationally recognized program again soon.

dffhogs


WILL CLINTON

September 10, 2015, 06:07:59 pm #8479 Last Edit: September 10, 2015, 07:21:23 pm by WILL CLINTON
For the weekend.

Minnesota -5 (moved down from -7 for me)  1 unit
Rutgers -3.5 (moved up from -2 against me)  1 unit
OU -1 (it's moved up to -2 so I'm glad I got on it early this week)   2 units

I'm also leaning Clemson, but it's moved from -17 to -19.5 in the past 2 days so I'm not too sure. I'll probably lay a 1/2 unit on it at the least. All favs, but hey, that's the way it goes sometimes.
There is no sacred ground for the conquered.

SPAL


DadVader1

It's still way too early to know how they'll do this season, but the power ranking systems got off to a very good start with at least 10 of them hitting at or above 60% ats.  I'm sure that number will shrink dramatically, but hopefully it's a good sign for the season. 

ChicoHog

I like ND-11.5
UTSA +17.5
SMU-4.5
Mich st-4

Anyone touching the SCarolina/UK game or Vandy/UGA game?  I like UGA as Vandy is still horrible on offense.  Not sure about UK/SC.

widespreadsooie

Quote from: DadVader1 on September 10, 2015, 08:54:31 pm
It's still way too early to know how they'll do this season, but the power ranking systems got off to a very good start with at least 10 of them hitting at or above 60% ats.  I'm sure that number will shrink dramatically, but hopefully it's a good sign for the season. 

Vader, glad to see the sheets coming out hot. Always tend to like it's picks and look forward to em.

widespreadsooie

Quote from: ChicoHog on September 10, 2015, 09:13:06 pm
I like ND-11.5
UTSA +17.5
SMU-4.5
Mich st-4

Anyone touching the SCarolina/UK game or Vandy/UGA game?  I like UGA as Vandy is still horrible on offense.  Not sure about UK/SC.

That SC/UK line is in no man's land. Who knows.

Fort Dweller

Quote from: Fatty McGee on June 03, 2012, 09:43:59 pmRabid gay rampage?  That's quite a phrase.  I picture rundown neighborhoods being gentrified by angry, fit, childless, and well dressed mobs.
Quote from: sharpd1 on September 23, 2012, 08:33:21 pmSome of the people posting on here aren't good at brain stuff.
Quote from: PonderinHog on June 26, 2013, 11:15:49 pm
What if he chews a Poptart into the shape of two men holding hands - or worse?
Quote from: PharmacistHog on February 19, 2015, 10:09:07 am
Did you really click on the "report to moderator" button.  And not only that but do it on yourself? 

onebadrubi

Quote from: Fort Dweller on September 10, 2015, 10:06:34 pm
Hammered this line

Me too, *** push.  I should have bought a .5!!!

Someone asked, yes I'm all over the UGA line

SPAL


The Hogfather

Quote from: sir-pigs-a-lot on September 10, 2015, 11:49:53 pm
Garbage push

That was so bad!  Not only because there were only 2 seconds left, but also because of the way it happened.  DB was in the perfect position to intercept it or at least tip it away and he somehow missed it completely.

Hawgndaaz

Hogs -21 1 unit
Georgia -20.5 2 units
TAMU -30 1 unit

See a pattern here?

Why is Clemson only -19 at home against App St?

widespreadsooie

Quote from: Hawgndaaz on September 11, 2015, 03:45:08 pm
Hogs -21 1 unit
Georgia -20.5 2 units
TAMU -30 1 unit

See a pattern here?

Why is Clemson only -19 at home against App St?

App St. has 7 straight W's dating back to last season, that may have something to do with it but I agree, the line sticks out as low.

SPAL


widespreadsooie

Saturday plays:

Co St +5
SMU -5.5
UTEP +20
Ms St +4
UGA -21

5-6 YTD

jkstock04

Quote from: mckinneyhog5 on September 10, 2015, 05:18:01 pm
WKU opened at -3.... Now LAtech is -2 1/2.  Going with WKU at home in a shoot out.  Also taking the over at 63.
Hell of a call on that one...Hopefully i can make some better picks this weekend.

Have not bet yet but so far think I'm going:

ND -12; 5*
Mizzou -10.5; 5*
Nevada +11.5; 4*
Cincinnati -6.5; 4*
Hogs -21; 3*

Also like Georgia and Ole Miss to cover but prob will not bet. Heard on the radio today the hottest bet in Vegas coming in today on college football was OU over Tennessee. Lopsided action on OU. That will be a very interesting game. I hate Bob Stoops so I'll be rooting for the Vols in that one.
Thanks for the F Shack. 

Love,

Dirty Mike and the Boys

hogsanity

Quote from: jkstock04 on September 12, 2015, 12:16:35 am
Hell of a call on that one...Hopefully i can make some better picks this weekend.

Have not bet yet but so far think I'm going:

ND -12; 5*
Mizzou -10.5; 5*
Nevada +11.5; 4*
Cincinnati -6.5; 4*
Hogs -21; 3*

Also like Georgia and Ole Miss to cover but prob will not bet. Heard on the radio today the hottest bet in Vegas coming in today on college football was OU over Tennessee. Lopsided action on OU. That will be a very interesting game. I hate Bob Stoops so I'll be rooting for the Vols in that one.

got mizzu clemson hogs ga tomorrow. Had Miami -18 tonight and also had them over 37. So good start to the weekend.
People ask me what I do in winter when there is no baseball.  I will tell you what I do. I stare out the window, and I wait for spring.

"Anything goes wrong, anything at all, your fault, my fault, nobodies fault, I'm going to blow your head off."  John Wayne in BIG JAKE

jkstock04

Quote from: hogsanity on September 12, 2015, 12:28:34 am
got mizzu clemson hogs ga tomorrow. Had Miami -18 tonight and also had them over 37. So good start to the weekend.
I had Miami tonight as well bet them heavy. Was cussing them in 1st half something awful...then they came out in 2nd half and dominated.

What is your take on the Clemson/App St by chance? That's the only morning game looks to me worth betting...but Clemson -19 looks like one of those too good to be true...trap bets to me. Any insight?
Thanks for the F Shack. 

Love,

Dirty Mike and the Boys

SPAL


widespreadsooie

Added TN +2

Us UGA backers are against some smart money. Line just nosedived to 18.

WILL CLINTON

I decided against my Clemson play, so only the 3 picks this weekend.
There is no sacred ground for the conquered.

MuskogeeHogFan

I wouldn't be surprised to see Oklahoma beat Tennessee by 7 to 10 points.
Go Hogs Go!