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ADP says -697,000 private jobs

Started by Biggus Piggus, March 04, 2009, 08:32:12 am

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Biggus Piggus

That's pretty close to my estimate of -700K.  They put more work into it than I did.

A couple of days before we get February job data, here's something I left out of the January discussion.

One alternative way to look at unemployment...

Every month the Labor Department discloses a number of people who are not counted in the work force but say they want a job.

Remember, all these numbers are estimates based on sampling surveys, and the government every so often trues up the estimates by revising annual benchmark data.  Every month is an estimated change from the previous month, which eventually ties back to an estimated change off a benchmark level (which is based on Census Bureau surveys that are much more comprehensive).

If you include the people who aren't counted in the work force but still want a job, the unemployment rate in January was 11.8% compared with 8.4% in January 2008.

That is an increase of 340 basis points, compared with the year-over-year rise of 270 basis points in headline unemployment.

To me, that suggests January headline unemployment was understated by 70 bp, which would have made it 8.3%--and put March into the 9's.
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SpareRib

I'll fish 'til the money's gone ... then I'll fish for food!<br /><br />My heritage - Dutch/Polish/German on one side, English/Welsh on the other.  I'm a mutt, not a show dog.  Proud to be an American!

 

SpareRib

Here's March estimated -

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Job-losses-arent-letting-up/story.aspx?guid=%7B1B804FB2%2D494E%2D485C%2D9AF8%2D5BB09A6E3B1E%7D&dist=hplatest
I'll fish 'til the money's gone ... then I'll fish for food!<br /><br />My heritage - Dutch/Polish/German on one side, English/Welsh on the other.  I'm a mutt, not a show dog.  Proud to be an American!