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I really want to know who comes up with this crap

Started by Biggus Piggus, November 05, 2008, 07:21:59 pm

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Biggus Piggus

November 05, 2008, 07:21:59 pm Last Edit: November 05, 2008, 07:33:51 pm by Biggus Piggus
news report said economists' consensus for October jobs report was -100K, ADP forecast came in at almost -160K.

Who the hell would believe a forecast of -100K after the mid-September onset of chaos?  I'm surprised ADP came in so low.
[CENSORED]!

Eddie Piggard

November 05, 2008, 07:31:58 pm #1
I HAVE NO CLUE WHAT YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT OR WHY I AM YELLING!
Pray for Obama. Psalms 109:8
 

Masshog

November 05, 2008, 08:22:50 pm #2
We bet every month on the over/under.... consensus at -100k I am completely down for the under (losses greater than 100k).  Eddie, you are either yelling out of frustration, or because the Valium wore off. 
My feets hurt.

Eddie Piggard

November 05, 2008, 08:25:30 pm #3
Quote from: Masshog on November 05, 2008, 08:22:50 pm
We bet every month on the over/under.... consensus at -100k I am completely down for the under (losses greater than 100k).  Eddie, you are either yelling out of frustration, or because the Valium wore off. 
ding ding......I knew I forgot something......what was it?
Pray for Obama. Psalms 109:8

Masshog

November 05, 2008, 08:47:06 pm #4
I'm guessing it was the Valium.  Im a good good guesser.  ;)
My feets hurt.

BlackKnightHogFan

November 05, 2008, 10:07:21 pm #5
ADP has been way off all year.
Upon the fields of friendly strife are sown the seeds that upon other fields; on other days, will bear the fruits of victory.  -Douglas MacArthur

Member #:  9524

SultanofSwine

November 06, 2008, 08:00:13 am #6
BP, my guess would be some one with an agenda to keep the pie in the sky. What I havent figured out is if they think we cant handle the reality of our situation or if they just dont have a freakin clue.

HOGSCALD

November 06, 2008, 10:08:24 am #7
Quote from: SultanofSwine on November 06, 2008, 08:00:13 am
BP, my guess would be some one with an agenda to keep the pie in the sky. What I havent figured out is if they think we cant handle the reality of our situation or if they just dont have a freakin clue.

Are you guys referring to ADP the payroll processor.  If so, we tried them on our payroll (5 locations / 3 states).  They got things unbelievably fouled up and we threw them out with vengeance.  Later, months after we dumped them, they hit our payroll accounts with the payroll from a big company in KC (yes, we should have changed accounts - live & learn).  Fortunately both us and the other company were B of A accounts and B of A straightened things out quickly.  Again, if that is who is being referred to I wouldn't trust anything those guys said.  If not, forget everything but the first sentence.
You give 100 percent in the first half of the game, and if that isn't enough, in the second half you give what's left.
--  Yogi Berra

McKdaddy

November 06, 2008, 11:58:26 am #8
Quote from: BlackKnightHogFan on November 05, 2008, 10:07:21 pm
ADP has been way off all year.

A Dumb Projection . . . at least that's what my mentors always told me.
Don't buy upgrades, ride up grades.

"You are everything that is wrong with this place . . . Ban me"

"CPI, ex-food and energy, is only good for an anorexic pedestrian"--Art Cashin

Ash

November 06, 2008, 12:44:16 pm #9
Most numbers are developed by economists... economics is a science that is full of pitfalls. You start with an easy simple model and it quickly becomes unmanageable as you add variables. As a result they can get general trends right pretty often but actual numbers not so much.

Oh, and did you know there are no one-armed economists? That's because then they couldn't say "On the other hand."
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