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OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)

Started by WILL CLINTON, August 28, 2011, 09:41:36 pm

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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

Quote from: mckinneyhog5 on December 22, 2013, 03:07:37 pm
Haven't played football in over a year but since I have been unable to bet horse racing here in Texas I looked at my betting account and noticed I had 40 bucks in it.

Here are my Plays for today

Jags +4 1/2 straight for 40.00

New England +1
Green Bay -1
Seattle - 8 1/2
Detroit - 9 1/2

$20 Four team parlay.


I don't ever go for the live racing here.  No clue why they run that six month schedule during the blazing heat.  I never do well with the horses running here either.

I do go up however and spend the day eating, drinking beer, and playing Aqueduct and Belmont.  By far my two favorite tracks to play.
Let's make some waves.

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

To be fair to everyone.  I am a bit of a Notre Dame fan so I might be pushed toward betting them with that huge line because of it, but I still think they cover.

Don't let proximity fool you.  Yankees Stadium should still seem like a home game for the Irish.
Let's make some waves.

 

Hooch

1-3 for bowl season ugh!

Going

ND/Rutgers under 54
Kansas St./Michigan under 54
Louisville -4.5
Cici +2.5

DadVader1

I think ND lost both its offensive and defensive coordinators to the coaching carousel.  Those are the types of added variables that usually lead me to sit out a game.

WILL CLINTON

Well, followed up my 4-8 start with a 6-8 yesterday. Im starting to think I should fade my own picks.

Good news for Jeff and everyone else on the same ones he is, I'm on the opposite on NC and Miami so its almost a guaranteed cash for y'all. The only thing keeping from me taking Michigan is the new freshman starting QB, so you all should be good on that one also.

NC -3  1*
Miami +6  1*
There is no sacred ground for the conquered.

WILL CLINTON

I also figured you people on ND needed some help, so I went ahead and put down the following.

Rutgers ML +300  1*
Rutgers +6.5  1*
over 43.5  1*
There is no sacred ground for the conquered.

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

Barring a defensive score Irish likely don't cover.  Shame too cause should be up 20 plus at this point. Very sloppy against a horrible Rutgers team.
Let's make some waves.

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

Well there's the int. now need them to rip off a long TD run.
Let's make some waves.

WILL CLINTON

Quote from: Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson on December 28, 2013, 02:15:44 pm
Barring a defensive score Irish likely don't cover.  Shame too cause should be up 20 plus at this point. Very sloppy against a horrible Rutgers team.

You didn't calculate the effect my bet had on Rutgers. As soon as I got confirmation, Rutgers was doomed.
There is no sacred ground for the conquered.

yraciv

Playing Michigan +7 and Louisville -5.5 today.

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

Quote from: WILL CLINTON on December 28, 2013, 01:57:18 pm
I also figured you people on ND needed some help, so I went ahead and put down the following.

Rutgers ML +300  1*
Rutgers +6.5  1*
over 43.5  1*



Dude that's rough!
Let's make some waves.

WILL CLINTON

Quote from: Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson on December 28, 2013, 02:44:32 pm

Dude that's rough!

And I didn't even help yall since the line was ND -14. We all lost.

Except for that over.
There is no sacred ground for the conquered.

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

Quote from: WILL CLINTON on December 28, 2013, 02:59:12 pm
And I didn't even help yall since the line was ND -14. We all lost.

Except for that over.


Lol I know.  At least the Heels are looking good early.
Let's make some waves.

 

WILL CLINTON

Quote from: Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson on December 28, 2013, 03:04:04 pm
Lol I know.  At least the Heels are looking good early.

Give them time. I have no doubt they will collapse since I bet on them.
There is no sacred ground for the conquered.

jkstock04

I have been looking for a reason to throw some units at Louisville over Miami like y'all are saying, came close to pulling the trigger, at first glance it sounds good but at closer glance it looks a little weird.

I did watch Miami get dismantled by Duke (& lost $ on it)...but other than that I'm not seeing the appeal here. Louisville has been awful ATS...this is in Florida.

Miami ATS ain't much better, but I think they have played a much tougher schedule, as most would agree Louisville's schedule is a joke...and they haven't exactly blown a lot of teams out this year. Their last 3 games against weak opponents have been decided by 7 points.

I'm not saying it's a bad bet, I was just curious to the thinking behind it.
Thanks for the F Shack. 

Love,

Dirty Mike and the Boys

WILL CLINTON

Just to be sure that all of you win your Cincy bets, I just added this:

NC -17.5  1*

Your welcome.
There is no sacred ground for the conquered.

jkstock04

Quote from: WILL CLINTON on December 28, 2013, 03:30:09 pm
Just to be sure that all of you win your Cincy bets, I just added this:

NC -17.5  1*

Your welcome.
May very well be a good bet. This looks like a mismatch to me talent wise across the board. What did u get that at +300 or something?
Thanks for the F Shack. 

Love,

Dirty Mike and the Boys

WILL CLINTON

In case anyone was on the over, I just bet:

NC v Cincy u62.5  1*

so your over should hit by about the middle of the 3rd qtr.
There is no sacred ground for the conquered.

WILL CLINTON

Quote from: jkstock04 on December 28, 2013, 03:32:22 pm
May very well be a good bet. This looks like a mismatch to me talent wise across the board. What did u get that at +300 or something?

Nah, after they went up 23-3, 17.5 was the in-game line sportsbook was offering. It was -110 like normal.
There is no sacred ground for the conquered.

jkstock04

Quote from: WILL CLINTON on December 28, 2013, 03:51:07 pm
Nah, after they went up 23-3, 17.5 was the in-game line sportsbook was offering. It was -110 like normal.

I have never bet an in game line so wasn't sure how that worked. I do bet 2nd half lines though. Right now Heels -.5 looks pretty enticing.
Thanks for the F Shack. 

Love,

Dirty Mike and the Boys

WILL CLINTON

Quote from: jkstock04 on December 28, 2013, 03:59:38 pm
I have never bet an in game line so wasn't sure how that worked. I do bet 2nd half lines though. Right now Heels -.5 looks pretty enticing.


I can only speak for sportsbook, but all my in-game bets are just like any other bet as far as the juice. Sometimes they fluctuate when one side is really getting hammered. Earlier one of the best I made was -130, but that is the highest I've ever paid.

I just added

2h UNC +.5  1*

There is no sacred ground for the conquered.

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

Let's make some waves.

WILL CLINTON

Holy Jeezus. Just went 4-0 on one game. Which means I will lose my next 12 or so.

I might stay away from Mich v Ks St until the 2nd qtr or so. I have no read on this game, but I still lean Mich. Which bodes well for you Jeff.
There is no sacred ground for the conquered.

WILL CLINTON

I'm thinking that this Louisville and Miami game is going to be one of the best games this bowl season.

I'm also adding

Miami v Louisville o60.5  1*

I was too slow on the trigger and the game kicked off before I could confirm. I'm sure there will be an in game line shortly that I'll jump on.
There is no sacred ground for the conquered.

 

WILL CLINTON

December 28, 2013, 07:44:17 pm #6124 Last Edit: December 28, 2013, 08:52:13 pm by WILL CLINTON
Added:

2h Louisville -4  1*
Louisville -27.5  1*
Louisville -27  1*
under 51.5 1*


There is no sacred ground for the conquered.

WILL CLINTON

Ehhh...2-2-1 in the last game...better than 0-5.

Michigan +7  1*
Michigan v Kansas St o52.5  1*
There is no sacred ground for the conquered.

WILL CLINTON

Hedging

Kansas St -17.5  2*
2h Kansas St -3  1*
2h KSU v Mich o24.5  1*
There is no sacred ground for the conquered.

WILL CLINTON

Anyone want to throw a guess out there why Michigan went for 2 there?

I hate to be a conspiracy theorist, but the final in-game line was 17.5, the 2h line was KSU -3 (it finished at 2). Coincidence?

Looks like I was seeing into the future with this
Quote from: WILL CLINTON on December 28, 2013, 09:19:35 pm
Ehhh...2-2-1 in the last game...better than 0-5.

Went 0-5 in the KSU v Mich game to finish 7-9-1 today for a bowl season record of 17-25-1. Absolutely atrocious.

I'm seriously embarrassed, not because of the number of bets I'm betting, but for my percentage and losses, and I hope you all are fading me so you can make some doe this bowl season.



There is no sacred ground for the conquered.

MuskogeeHogFan

I think the Duke-Texas A&M game may end up being more interesting than the point spread would indicate. This morning the line is A&M -12 with the total at 74-1/2.

Duke has scored one point for every 12.9 yards of offense while A&M has allowed one point for every 14.9 yards of total offense allowed.

A&M has scored one point for every 12.3 yards of total offense while Duke has allowed one point for every 16.5 yards of total offense allowed.

Average number of fumbles lost to fumbles recovered for each team are about even.

Duke will likely rush for more yards than A&M (nearly 200 to 180).

A&M should pass for around 300 compared to Duke's 240-250.

Both teams will likely throw 1 INT.

Neither team should have a problem scoring once in the RZ unless that is where their INT comes.

The biggest area of separation comes when you look at scoring offense vs. scoring defense.
Duke averages 31.6 pts per game while A&M allows 30.9 per game.
Dukes averages allowing 24.7 point per game while A&M averages scoring 43.6 points per game.

My head keeps telling me that A&M -12 is the pick, but the numbers I have ran make this look a lot closer like A&M 35 Duke 31.

What are you guys seeing?
Go Hogs Go!

McKdaddy

No scientific data here, Musk:

My Ag in-laws think the Ags won't be as focused for this game as they should be. Sumlin may not allow that to happen, of course. But this season has been a big disappointment from where the Ags began the season ranked and their expectations. This bowl is a disappointment and Duke is an opponent whereby teams look at the name on the jersey instead of the collection of work in 2013 (ie  overlooked).

I like DU +13.5
Don't buy upgrades, ride up grades.

"You are everything that is wrong with this place . . . Ban me"

"CPI, ex-food and energy, is only good for an anorexic pedestrian"--Art Cashin

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

Quote from: WILL CLINTON on December 29, 2013, 12:31:16 am
Anyone want to throw a guess out there why Michigan went for 2 there?

I hate to be a conspiracy theorist, but the final in-game line was 17.5, the 2h line was KSU -3 (it finished at 2). Coincidence?

Looks like I was seeing into the future with this
Went 0-5 in the KSU v Mich game to finish 7-9-1 today for a bowl season record of 17-25-1. Absolutely atrocious.

I'm seriously embarrassed, not because of the number of bets I'm betting, but for my percentage and losses, and I hope you all are fading me so you can make some doe this bowl season.





I love a good gambling conspiracy theory as much as the next guy, but not when it comes to in game betting. 
Let's make some waves.

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

Well went 2-2 yesterday, bit the good kind of 2-2

Lost a 3 unit game and a 2 unit game while hitting two dime plays.
Let's make some waves.

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

Packers -2 / 3 units

Steelers -6.5 / dime play. Bought half point here.

Skins +3.5 / 3 units

Jets +7 3 units

Pats -7 / dime play
Let's make some waves.

MuskogeeHogFan

Quote from: McKdaddy on December 29, 2013, 07:59:25 am
No scientific data here, Musk:

My Ag in-laws think the Ags won't be as focused for this game as they should be. Sumlin may not allow that to happen, of course. But this season has been a big disappointment from where the Ags began the season ranked and their expectations. This bowl is a disappointment and Duke is an opponent whereby teams look at the name on the jersey instead of the collection of work in 2013 (ie  overlooked).

I like DU +13.5

And all of that may very well be enough reason for A&M to underachieve/underperform in this game.
Go Hogs Go!

Hooch

Man I love the Vikings today. Started -3 now at +1 they have actually been playing well and the Lions are doing their usual collapse.  I think the Vikings win by 7-10.

I am going 5 units on it.

Hawgndaaz

Steelers up to 9.5 glad I got on it early jeff.

Hawgndaaz

Quote from: Hooch on December 29, 2013, 11:15:30 am
Man I love the Vikings today. Started -3 now at +1 they have actually been playing well and the Lions are doing their usual collapse.  I think the Vikings win by 7-10.

I am going 5 units on it.
Peterson is doubtful. Foot and groin issues.

Hooch


McKdaddy

Quote from: Hawgndaaz on December 29, 2013, 11:15:58 am
Steelers up to 9.5 glad I got on it early jeff.

I got Jeff's picks except Pitt, who had jumped to the 9.5-10 range on my books by 11:45 when I started placing his picks.

Adding SF +3, 1u
Don't buy upgrades, ride up grades.

"You are everything that is wrong with this place . . . Ban me"

"CPI, ex-food and energy, is only good for an anorexic pedestrian"--Art Cashin

WILL CLINTON

Quote from: Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson on December 29, 2013, 09:27:43 am
I love a good gambling conspiracy theory as much as the next guy, but not when it comes to in game betting. 

I was half joking. I hate it when things like that happen. I'd rather lose by 20 than lose by a point or less with something suspicious happening. Even though I "know" nothing hokey happened, it's hard not to think about it.

There is no sacred ground for the conquered.

Hooch

Late Games

Pats  -7  1 unit
Denver -10 2 units
Seattle/Rams   over 41 2 units

WILL CLINTON

49'ers +3 
Pats -7.5
Broncos -11
Chiefs +14
Eagles -7
Packers -3
There is no sacred ground for the conquered.

Hooch

Nice NFL day 3-1 up 6 units. 

Adding Eagles -7 for 3 units. 

WILL CLINTON

Great, I can go 5-0 picking NFL games but can't get to .500 in college.

Wow.
There is no sacred ground for the conquered.

Spikes

Great job guys!!! Let's finish tonight off with a bang!!
You only have one life, so you better enjoy it!

Hawgndaaz

Jeff made me some good money this weekend... hate that a stupid missed fg keeps pitt out of the playoffs though.

StuartDavin

Quote from: Hawgndaaz on December 29, 2013, 07:18:55 pm
Jeff made me some good money this weekend... hate that a stupid missed fg keeps pitt out of the playoffs though.

Not sure i've ever posted in this thread, but I have to second this. Between his plays yesterday and his two dime plays today, I have about two car payments in my pocket. Very nice little run.

Spikes

Jeff is the man, esp his dime plays!!! Oh those dime plays!!! $$$
You only have one life, so you better enjoy it!

Hooch

Not playing it but the Eagles -3 would be my 2nd half play. 

WILL CLINTON

Quote from: WILL CLINTON on December 29, 2013, 06:54:52 pm
Great, I can go 5-0 picking NFL games but can't get to .500 in college.

Wow.

5-1. I don't even know what to say.
There is no sacred ground for the conquered.