Gafford proved why he's a first rounder

[The_Iceman]

Think about this. If Gafford leaves, and Garland doesn't come play again, we would have had over the last 4 years come out of Arkansas:

-5 star Monk
-4 star Allen
-4 star Curry
-4 star Gafford
-4 star Garland

And we would have a combined 1 season of those 5 players at the University of Arkansas. What a missed opportunity combined with bad luck.

[Hawg Red]

It is not a risk or at least not ask big of one as coming back and playing another year where you are limited in practice time ( they do have to go to class, etc, limited in what they learn compared to what they will be doing in the NBA, risk of injury, as opposed to getting drafted in the teens and getting paid to go learn how to play NBA basketball.

Again, we can all rationalize why he should come back, but it is selfishness on our part because it makes the Hogs better.

That's something I don't think fans consider when they give the old, tired, clichéd "stay in school and develop" line. You know, it is possible to get paid millions of dollars to develop as a basketball player. NBA players don't get better or develop during the NBA season. They do it in the offseason, just like they do in college. Except for professionals, they can hire high-end trainers and personal coaches and devote as many hours as their are in the day if they want. Their agent can set them up with other clients who play in the NBA and they can work out all summer against some of the best players in the world. At Arkansas, Gafford is going to be practicing against players no taller than 6'8. That's just the reality of the situation if he comes back. In the pro ranks, he's likely to have access to a real PG as well. What a huge thing for a big man (just ask Moses Kingsley).

[Rome26]

There is not very much precedence for players with mid first draft grades coming back to school and improving their draft stock into that top 5 range. The point about the amount of big men is valid, though. It's still a huge risk. I will respect him either way and hope he doesn't get hurt or improves enough to impress NBA people enough to actually move that fair up because it's really, really hard to do. It's not as simple as looking at positions and assuming, due to a lack of projected competition, that he will move up. Especially with the de-emphasis in the NBA on positions and big men in general.

This is where we differ.  I think it's a bigger risk to come out this year in a draft that's loaded with big men projected to go in front of you. IMO, Gafford ceiling is about 17th and his floor is about 26th in this year's draft. I will say he falls some where in the middle at 21. In next years draft, I can see his ceiling being as high as number 5 (depending on how much he improves) and a floor of 15. So lets say he's picked at 10 in next year's draft. Over the life of a rookie contract, he would come out much better staying another year and being a top 10 pick than coming out this year and going 21.

[Kevin]

I wish you some of you would understand:
the nba does not draft bigs on results, they draft on potential. Gafford has what they want.

somebody needs to cma that he is gone, so he is not surprised, like he was with portis.

[hawginbigd1]

The last 2 games Gafford has shown how good he is when the opponent doesn't have a strong post player, bet he don't get 16 and 8 Saturday. Not a diss, just facts, when opponent is strong inside he disappears because he hasn't developed his game facing the basket, and isn't strong enough to play with his back to the basket. He will provide some defense because of his length and athleticism, the guards will have to carry us to win Saturday.

[The_Iceman]

I wish you some of you would understand:
the nba does not draft bigs on results, they draft on potential. Gafford has what they want.

somebody needs to cma that he is gone, so he is not surprised, like he was with portis.

Does anyone have any guesses on potential grad transfer big men out there?

Jucos?
http://www.jucorecruiting.com/2018top100rankings

[simon the squealot]

The guaranteed 1st round money for 3 years will be hard to turn down. He needs weight and strength and greater shooting range, but I assume he will develop while making well over $1 mill per year. What is his family's situation? What are their thoughts?

[The_Iceman]

The guaranteed 1st round money for 3 years will be hard to turn down. He needs weight and strength and greater shooting range, but I assume he will develop while making well over $1 mill per year. What is his family's situation? What are their thoughts?

It really is hard to turn down. But I'm not too sure about his NBA projection right now. He is shorter and thinner than many of the big Centers in the NBA. And he doesn't have Portis's skills to move to the PF spot. Look at guys like Drummond, Jordan, Rudy Gobert, Whiteside, etc. I'm just not sure Gafford matches up to them in terms of size.

[SemperHawg]

Below is a rookie pay scale breakdown based on where they were picked in the draft last year.


https://basketball.realgm.com/nba/info/rookie_scale

Most of the projections you are seeing right now have him anywhere from 16 to 25.  That would still be well over a million a year for 3 years.

As Kevin said above, the NBA drafts bigs on potential and Gafford has buckets of that. 

[daprospecta]

Below is a rookie pay scale breakdown based on where they were picked in the draft last year.


https://basketball.realgm.com/nba/info/rookie_scale

Most of the projections you are seeing right now have him anywhere from 16 to 25.  That would still be well over a million a year for 3 years.

As Kevin said above, the NBA drafts bigs on potential and Gafford has buckets of that. 

Potential, yes but you have to be great at other things. Tony Wroten comes to mind.  He couldn't shoot but he could score and drive and create. NBA execs saw the potential. If they could elevate his shooting %, he'd be lethal.  Gafford simply isn't big enough/consistent right now to be a 1st round lock. I'm sure he can impress a team and maybe slide into the first round but why take the risk?  Get an insurance plan on yourself next year and lock yourself into the 1st round.

[SemperHawg]

Potential, yes but you have to be great at other things. Tony Wroten comes to mind.  He couldn't shoot but he could score and drive and create. NBA execs saw the potential. If they could elevate his shooting %, he'd be lethal.  Gafford simply isn't big enough/consistent right now to be a 1st round lock. I'm sure he can impress a team and maybe slide into the first round but why take the risk?  Get an insurance plan on yourself next year and lock yourself into the 1st round.

This is a fair assessment, I would argue that it is easier for you to make this observation not having to stare down the barrel of missing out on that money.  What if Gafford comes back, doesn't get injured, and the fact that we have almost no offense coming back besides him causes him to draw double teams and just get nicked up all year.  There are many outside factors that could cause his draft stock to fall outside of injury. 

If its my kid and he's got better than average shot to land in the first round (and from everything I read that is accurate as of right now) I advise him to take it.

[The_Iceman]

Below is a rookie pay scale breakdown based on where they were picked in the draft last year.


https://basketball.realgm.com/nba/info/rookie_scale

Most of the projections you are seeing right now have him anywhere from 16 to 25.  That would still be well over a million a year for 3 years.

As Kevin said above, the NBA drafts bigs on potential and Gafford has buckets of that. 

Gafford is projected #7 in the 2019 draft. If he came back and was All-SEC and even an All American, he could get into the Top 5.

The #7 pick is guaranteed over $11 million in his first 3 years. Big difference than outside the lottery.

[SemperHawg]

Gafford is projected #7 in the 2019 draft. If he came back and was All-SEC and even an All American, he could get into the Top 5.

The #7 pick is guaranteed over $11 million in his first 3 years. Big difference than outside the lottery.

As I pointed out above, there is no guarantee that he comes back and does that well.  He would be the VAST majority of our returning offense and without any production out of the 4 spot (which I don't see coming by next year)  and replacing Macon and Barford, Gafford is set to see double and triple teams all year next year if he comes back.   Realistically this will most likely be a worse team with less help than the one he is currently playing on.  If he comes back next year he might as well stay 3 and play with Justice Hill and that class.

[hogsanity]

Gafford is projected #7 in the 2019 draft. If he came back and was All-SEC and even an All American, he could get into the Top 5.

The #7 pick is guaranteed over $11 million in his first 3 years. Big difference than outside the lottery.

Projected there as of now. Suppose he comes back and has a bad season? Or gets hurt? Or other bigs and other players come along that teams just want/need more and he ends up back around 15-20?

[3of5-2]

He should go, he will get better development in the NBA or D-league or G-league or USA-league, heck even in the LGBT-league than he will under MA.

[The_Iceman]

Projected there as of now. Suppose he comes back and has a bad season? Or gets hurt? Or other bigs and other players come along that teams just want/need more and he ends up back around 15-20?

That's another factor as well. If he is smart with his money, he could get drafted #20 and bust out of the league in 3 years and still be in solid financial position.

[The_Iceman]

As I pointed out above, there is no guarantee that he comes back and does that well.  He would be the VAST majority of our returning offense and without any production out of the 4 spot (which I don't see coming by next year)  and replacing Macon and Barford, Gafford is set to see double and triple teams all year next year if he comes back.   Realistically this will most likely be a worse team with less help than the one he is currently playing on.  If he comes back next year he might as well stay 3 and play with Justice Hill and that class.

He will have a lot more help at the 4 spot next year than this year. Reggie Chaney, Gabe Osabuohien, Adrio Bailey will be our 4s next year. Ethan Henderson will likely back him up at the 5, but could play next to him. Darious Hall will also be established more at the 3 spot.

I do agree that we will be hurting without Macon and Barford.

[elksnort]

Again, we can all rationalize why he should come back, but it is selfishness on our part because it makes the Hogs better. -Hogsanity.

Well, I will just go ahead an admit it. I am for whatever makes the Razorbacks better. I can be as selfish as you (anyone, not necessarily Hogsanity) think I am. I have rooted for the Razorbacks in football and basketball for over 40 years. I hope the individuals do well, but not more than me or my family.

Professional sports, especially basketball is becoming less interesting each year for me. Last season, I watched 0 minutes of the NBA.
Anyway, just my honest opinion. I would like to see Gafford come back one more year. I think in terms of his sports life, winning at Arkansas would probably mean more to him than anything he will do in the NBA. But of course, it is his life and he should do what he wants. 

[razorback1829]

He will have a lot more help at the 4 spot next year than this year. Reggie Chaney, Gabe Osabuohien, Adrio Bailey will be our 4s next year. Ethan Henderson will likely back him up at the 5, but could play next to him. Darious Hall will also be established more at the 3 spot.

I do agree that we will be hurting without Macon and Barford.

We're definitely gonna take our lumps regardless next season. Young team that will have no seasoninng... gonna take a while to gel.. but man they will be fun to watch regardless!

[hogsanity]

Again, we can all rationalize why he should come back, but it is selfishness on our part because it makes the Hogs better. -Hogsanity.

Well, I will just go ahead an admit it. I am for whatever makes the Razorbacks better. I can be as selfish as you (anyone, not necessarily Hogsanity) think I am. I have rooted for the Razorbacks in football and basketball for over 40 years. I hope the individuals do well, but not more than me or my family.

Professional sports, especially basketball is becoming less interesting each year for me. Last season, I watched 0 minutes of the NBA.
Anyway, just my honest opinion. I would like to see Gafford come back one more year. I think in terms of his sports life, winning at Arkansas would probably mean more to him than anything he will do in the NBA. But of course, it is his life and he should do what he wants. 

I respect that post, because it is honest.

[The_Iceman]

We're definitely gonna take our lumps regardless next season. Young team that will have no seasoninng... gonna take a while to gel.. but man they will be fun to watch regardless!

We could make the NCAA Tournament next year if everything came together: Gafford stays, Garland returns, Freshmen step up, returners improve.

But that is a lot to ask for. Most likely it will be am NIT year next year because Gafford and Garland are longshots on their own.

[TNhawgfan]

Think about this. If Gafford leaves, and Garland doesn't come play again, we would have had over the last 4 years come out of Arkansas:

-5 star Monk
-4 star Allen
-4 star Curry
-4 star Gafford
-4 star Garland

And we would have a combined 1 season of those 5 players at the University of Arkansas. What a missed opportunity combined with bad luck.

I don't know who would bring the ball down the court, and if anyone would ever pass, but that would be one heck of a team

[FineAsSwine]

I don't know who would bring the ball down the court, and if anyone would ever pass, but that would be one heck of a team

Lol. You sho rite! 

[99toLife]

Again, we can all rationalize why he should come back, but it is selfishness on our part because it makes the Hogs better. -Hogsanity.

Well, I will just go ahead an admit it. I am for whatever makes the Razorbacks better. I can be as selfish as you (anyone, not necessarily Hogsanity) think I am. I have rooted for the Razorbacks in football and basketball for over 40 years. I hope the individuals do well, but not more than me or my family.

Professional sports, especially basketball is becoming less interesting each year for me. Last season, I watched 0 minutes of the NBA.
Anyway, just my honest opinion. I would like to see Gafford come back one more year. I think in terms of his sports life, winning at Arkansas would probably mean more to him than anything he will do in the NBA. But of course, it is his life and he should do what he wants.

Good honest post.. and I agree, it's his life and he should take any opportunity he can and should do what is best for him in the long run.. If he is mid level 1st round..I say go and prosper. 

[The_Iceman]

I don't know who would bring the ball down the court, and if anyone would ever pass, but that would be one heck of a team

No chance they would have ever all been on the court together, but if they have:

PG: Garland
SG: Monk
SG: Allen
PF: Curry
C: Gafford

[Soooie21]

Man, I hope he goes, rather see him sit on an NBA bench than start for the Hogs. that would be awesome....I sure do miss the day, when they players went after their senior year..

[daprospecta]

Man, I hope he goes, rather see him sit on an NBA bench than start for the Hogs. that would be awesome....I sure do miss the day, when they players went after their senior year..

I want him to go. I know how it is being a collegiate athlete.  If he can go 1st round, GO! He seems to be a good kid and he is from Arkansas.  I would truly hate him going early and slipping to the second round and going the G-league route. 

[Paul]

If he were my kid & could go the mid 1st round I would tell him to go, hire a reputable money manager & never look back...unless he wants to finish his degree & learn to manage his own money

[Soooie21]

I want him to go. I know how it is being a collegiate athlete.  If he can go 1st round, GO! He seems to be a good kid and he is from Arkansas.  I would truly hate him going early and slipping to the second round and going the G-league route. 

I get it..I would go if I was in his shoes...but it is hard to build a good college team, when you get a stud and he leaves after 1 year...unless you are Duke,NC, Kentucky,,etc...

[Dudeman]

Ill be shocked and delighted if he comes back for another year.

[aloha_kid]

Lottery picks show up every night and are consistent scorers. Gafford is a heck of a player but he is not ready for the physical part of the NBA. Lot of things he needs to work on for sure needs to put on a little more weight and get in the weight room .

This.  He is not ready for the NBA right now.  He's a good player but hasn't developed his game yet.  He's extremely athletic but fouls too much.  Averaging 21 minutes a game he averages 3.5 fouls.  I think it would be a wise move to stick around.

[hogsanity]

This.  He is not ready for the NBA right now.  He's a good player but hasn't developed his game yet.  He's extremely athletic but fouls too much.  Averaging 21 minutes a game he averages 3.5 fouls.  I think it would be a wise move to stick around.

Well, as has been pointed out, it is not so much about the athlete being ready as is it about a NBA team being ready to draft the athlete AND PAY THEM to have the rights to their potential.

[SemperHawg]

Well, as has been pointed out, it is not so much about the athlete being ready as is it about a NBA team being ready to draft the athlete AND PAY THEM to have the rights to their potential.

Again, a concept some on here just do not grasp. I couldn't agree more that he isn't ready.  I also think any NBA team out there is going to like the chances of him getting ready faster in their own system and facilities, where he is no longer a student athlete but instead a professional basketball player who now has endless time and resources to dedicate to his craft.

But hey, I wants what best for the Razorbacks not him, so I'll keep proclaiming he should stay for his own good! (sarcasm)

[hogsanity]

Again, a concept some on here just do not grasp. I couldn't agree more that he isn't ready.  I also think any NBA team out there is going to like the chances of him getting ready faster in their own system and facilities, where he is no longer a student athlete but instead a professional basketball player who now has endless time and resources to dedicate to his craft.

But hey, I wants what best for the Razorbacks not him, so I'll keep proclaiming he should stay for his own good! (sarcasm)

Someone pointed out he is playing 21.5 mins a game. Is he likely to get better doing that again next year or by going to the NBA, maybe playing in their summer league, being at their training facility 12+ hrs a day EVERYDAY, etc?

Now, he may become a much better COLLEGE player by staying another year, but does that translate to being a better NBA player?

[Hawg Red]

I'm reading up on upcoming NFL draft prospects and I've seen a few times now in this article the writer mention a player that could have been a solid first/second-round draft pick last year but came back to school and had their game "nitpicked" by scouts and their draft stock dropped. To me, this is the biggest reason why a player shouldn't get cute to come back if they have a good projection because the odds are much greater that you will do more damage to your stock than you will increased it enough to really move the needle. The dropoff in big man competition from this draft to next year's draft (projected) has my attention. But I just can't shake how much this move of coming back in the face of a mid-first round grade does not seem to work out a year later. Then again (my mind twists and turns a lot), I'm of the belief that fit matters above all else (within reason) and there is no way to project that. Takes my back to my baseline thoughts of I will support DG either way, but it's probably best to go now (if the projection holds) even though I do think he would benefit from another year (just don't think it was necessarily raise his stock and he's then putting himself in greater risk). Hopefully this discussion just intensifies because Gafford dominates the A&M bigs on Saturday in a Hog victory.

[texas tush hog]

This.  He is not ready for the NBA right now.  He's a good player but hasn't developed his game yet.  He's extremely athletic but fouls too much.  Averaging 21 minutes a game he averages 3.5 fouls.  I think it would be a wise move to stick around.

And I think he and his family know that.

[hogsanity]

And I think he and his family know that.

And they also know if he is drafted around 17 he gets a mill a year to go learn on the job.

[SemperHawg]

I'm reading up on upcoming NFL draft prospects and I've seen a few times now in this article the writer mention a player that could have been a solid first/second-round draft pick last year but came back to school and had their game "nitpicked" by scouts and their draft stock dropped. To me, this is the biggest reason why a player shouldn't get cute to come back if they have a good projection because the odds are much greater that you will do more damage to your stock than you will increased it enough to really move the needle. The dropoff in big man competition from this draft to next year's draft (projected) has my attention. But I just can't shake how much this move of coming back in the face of a mid-first round grade does not seem to work out a year later. Then again (my mind twists and turns a lot), I'm of the belief that fit matters above all else (within reason) and there is no way to project that. Takes my back to my baseline thoughts of I will support DG either way, but it's probably best to go now (if the projection holds) even though I do think he would benefit from another year (just don't think it was necessarily raise his stock and he's then putting himself in greater risk). Hopefully this discussion just intensifies because Gafford dominates the A&M bigs on Saturday in a Hog victory.

Tyler Wilson

[Grizzlyfan]

The fact that we are having a conversation about Daniel Gafford being drafted to the NBA in the top 20 tells you how diluted the college game has become.  too many years of too many one and done.

[The_Iceman]

Dream Scenario:

Gafford comes back. Develops a mid range jump shot. Gets his FT% up to 75%. Averages 18-20 ppg, 8-10 rebs, 3+ blks. Is SEC player of the year, 1st team All American. Leads the team to a Sweet 16. And is a Top 5 pick in next year's draft.

[Hawg Red]

And they also know if he is drafted around 17 he gets a mill a year to go learn on the job.

Try 2.5 million at the 17th pick.

[99toLife]

Try 2.5 million at the 17th pick.

is that total  for a two year contract?  not sure

[Hawg Red]

is that total  for a two year contract?  not sure

Year 1, my man. That's for just the first year.

[99toLife]

Year 1, my man. That's for just the first year.

Thanks I know the lottery guys get a 4 year contract and it drops in years after that but couldn't remember the values..

I would say go in a heart beat if that's where he is projected...

[texas tush hog]

Year 1, my man. That's for just the first year.

Not true: 1st year $1,779,200.00 2nd year $2,111,900.00 as 17th pick.

              1st year $3,841,000.00 2nd year $4,559,100.00 as 5th pick

             Do your homework


            https://basketball.realgm.com/nba/info/rookie_scale
             

[BatesvilleHOG]

Gafford will come back. Demarcus Cousins and Joel Embid would shame him off the floor

[Hawg Red]

Do your homework   

I did, blood. I'd suggest you do yours better.

http://www.spotrac.com/nba/milwaukee-bucks/cap/

D.J. Wilson was the 17th pick in 2017 draft. The 17th pick in this year's draft will make more because the salary cap goes up a little each year.

http://hoopshype.com/player/dj-wilson/salary/

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/w/wilsodj01.html

Another thing you aren't considering is that first-round picks can be signed to 120% of the rookie scale. Only a couple of time has that not happened since the advent of the rookie scale contract.

My source for the 17th pick making 2.5 million in the first year:

17. Milwaukee Bucks

Daniel Gafford
Arkansas
Freshman
C

Height: 6-foot-11 | Weight: 217 | PER: 27.0

Gafford made a big jump in our most recent top-100 prospect rankings, but the glut of big men in this class makes it difficult for him to crack the lottery in this team-needs-based mock draft. The Bucks are one team that could certainly be looking to add depth at the center spot, where John Henson has been holding the fort down inconsistently and Thon Maker has yet to prove his long-term viability.

Gafford's tremendous physical tools and significant upside will likely help him hear his name called somewhere in the top 20, with a strong pre-draft process.

Starting salary: $2,460,000

It's an Insider ($) article, but I'll link it below.

http://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/22197560/2018-nba-mock-draft-trae-young-luka-doncic-brooklyn-pick

So who did their homework and who didn't?

[Hawg Red]

Thanks I know the lottery guys get a 4 year contract and it drops in years after that but couldn't remember the values..

I would say go in a heart beat if that's where he is projected...

Actually, all first-round picks get a 4-year contract with the last two years being team options. That is the rookie scale. Second-round picks are not subject to the rookie scale.

[texas tush hog]

Actually, all first-round picks get a 4-year contract with the last two years being team options. That is the rookie scale. Second-round picks are not subject to the rookie scale.

Why do you want him to leave so badly? Do you hate Mike that much?

[99toLife]

Why do you want him to leave so badly? Do you hate Mike that much?

Don't think any Hog fans WANT him to leave.. but if he is going to get MILLIONS guaranteed! He should go.