Are you getting out?

[Vantage 8 dude]

I'll be interested to see what these end up being.

Working on that as we speak. Not sure whether or not the whole Hogville universe needs to necessarily know however. If interested how about IM me and I'll be glad to share? Give me into next week if interested.

P.S I will share an income/yield idea in the meantime. Take a long, hard look at ENB. In the most beaten up sector of the market-energy. A pipeline company who does NOT typically experience that much direct commodity exposer (although they do own some natural gas properties). The vast majority of their earnings come from the volume of oil/natural gas that flows through their lines. In addition, most of their transportation is based on a "take or pay" structure meaning the energy companies that contract with ENB will pay a certain set yearly fee no matter how much (or little) they end up shipping.

Very nice yield of +7.00% with more than adequate cash flow to continue covering the dividend. Also offers some price upside over time; also not selling at its 52 week high. One last advantage: being an incorporated company, not a typical limited partnership, the returns you receiver does NOT require a separate K-1 tax reporting which tends to complicate tax preparation.

[ricepig]

Absolutely no doubt. And while I remain an overall bull, I'm beginning to slowly reduce my stock holdings primarily where I can sell a portion of my position(s) and recover the original investment. Thanks to the massive run we've had IMO it's not the worse idea I've had over the years. It also helps me to raise some additional cash as I continue to scour the sectors and individual stocks that have either been ignored or haven't yet reflected the opportunities going forward.

I'm taking some profit in the part I added on in early April, just booking some cash/profit. The rest will ride it back down and then back up, we hope, lol.

[onebadrubi]

Working on that as we speak. Not sure whether or not the whole Hogville universe needs to necessarily know however. If interested how about IM me and I'll be glad to share? Give me into next week if interested.

P.S I will share an income/yield idea in the meantime. Take a long, hard look at ENB. In the most beaten up sector of the market-energy. A pipeline company who does NOT typically experience that much direct commodity exposer (although they do own some natural gas properties). The vast majority of their earnings come from the volume of oil/natural gas that flows through their lines. In addition, most of their transportation is based on a "take or pay" structure meaning the energy companies that contract with ENB will pay a certain set yearly fee no matter how much (or little) they end up shipping.

Very nice yield of +7.00% with more than adequate cash flow to continue covering the dividend. Also offers some price upside over time; also not selling at its 52 week high. One last advantage: being an incorporated company, not a typical limited partnership, the returns you receiver does NOT require a separate K-1 tax reporting which tends to complicate tax preparation.

If you are interested to share I am certainly willing to take.  I have been following some of your stuff and the PRU has been a solid one.  I an not sure if I will be move not he ENB just because I already have some ONEOK and think they are direct overlap.  Although ENB may be better, not sure.

[Vantage 8 dude]

I'm taking some profit in the part I added on in early April, just booking some cash/profit. The rest will ride it back down and then back up, we hope, lol.

Obviously always want to have some cash in order to be able to "ride the elevator" back up in the event of a pull back in either the markets and/or a particular stock you may want to invest.

[Sharkansas]

How can the stock market and real estate market be so hot given everything that is happening? To me it seems like a game of musical chairs, and everyone is just walking to the music. 

All this money being pumped out by the government...  where is the pain going to be felt?  Is it going to be massive inflation eventually?  Huge tax increases?  Massive cuts to government spending, the military, and social security/Medicare?  Or can the government just prop everything up with no consequences?

[ErieHog]

How can the stock market and real estate market be so hot given everything that is happening? To me it seems like a game of musical chairs, and everyone is just walking to the music. 
All this money being pumped out by the government...  where is the pain going to be felt?  Is it going to be massive inflation eventually?  Huge tax increases?  Massive cuts to government spending, the military, and social security/Medicare?

In essence, its a manifestation of one of the greatest anti-hyperinflationary pressures we have; in times of crisis, American markets are safe havens compared to volatility available elsewhere.

[ricepig]

How can the stock market and real estate market be so hot given everything that is happening? To me it seems like a game of musical chairs, and everyone is just walking to the music. 

All this money being pumped out by the government...  where is the pain going to be felt?  Is it going to be massive inflation eventually?  Huge tax increases?  Massive cuts to government spending, the military, and social security/Medicare?  Or can the government just prop everything up with no consequences?

0% interest rates, now you can finance your pickup for 30 years, instead of 7! Americans have money and wealth, they wish to get some return above 0% for it, so they buy things that they hope will appreciate in time. Could it all tumble back down, you bet, but I wouldn't wager that it does for very long. Will we have a pullback at some point, yes, and it will be quick and hard, probably at least a 10% correction, maybe more. The market will digest that, and then continue it's trend of going up 85% of the time over the history of the Dow.

[Vantage 8 dude]

Appears that over the past week or so many of the high tech stocks that have really been "flying" are beginning a pull back/consolidation. For those of you who've been uncomfortable in buying these stocks during these recent advances might want to go back and identify any/all positions you'd like to establish/add to and begin the process of nibbling on these corrections. Personally I'd place "limit' orders somewhere below the current prices of these stocks. If for whatever reason you're not comfortable in doing that, then I suggest you sell "puts" on these stocks to potentially buy somewhere below current prices. Like anything else you have to have a strategy and stick to your guns when doing so. I recommend the expiration date of any options be no more than 30 days out. Otherwise potential longer term volatility could really increase and turn against you. There are some extremely attractive premiums on strike prices below the current market price(s) on many of these companies.

BTW I would also recommend you consult the price graphs on any you might be considering. It helps sort out where past support levels have been on pullback. Not an absolute fool-proof method, however, it gives you a disciplined strategy to follow; and that is very often the key to long term success.

[Sharkansas]

Vantage,  what are your feelings about restaurant stocks like Texas Roadhouse, Ruth Chris, and Cheesecake Factory?? 

[Vantage 8 dude]

Vantage,  what are your feelings about restaurant stocks like Texas Roadhouse, Ruth Chris, and Cheesecake Factory??

I personally don't own any. Obviously these stocks have been pretty much bludgeoned with the shut down associated with Covid-19. Stocks relying on sustained openings to the public, whenever that may be, are going to have quite a road to recovery. If you're going to go after any IMO you'll have plenty of opportunity to buy into them once shutdowns become less wide spread and businesses are allowed to open back up. Otherwise you're totally gambling concerning economic timing. Having said that, the national chains will most likely be the ones that should   benefit most from a wide spread reopening. Generally speaking they will more than likely have somewhat stronger balance sheets AND access to credit if and/or they need it.

[Vantage 8 dude]

As a follow-up to my early comments concerning a likely market pullback and/or side ways moment: IMO this is an orderly and not unexpected pause. Over the past several days the sell off has been orderly and money seems NOT to be flowing out of the markets, the last thing we'd want to see, rather a rotation into areas that have lagged and haven't gotten the attention from most investors. I wouldn't doubt if this trend stays around for the next three or four weeks. While things are certainly far different from other years, coming to the end of summer is traditionally a time when markets often take a holiday of their own. Besides, most of the earnings from the most recent quarter have pretty much wrapped up.

I believe there's a very good chance that things will begin stirring in a meaningful way toward the middle to end of September. Closer to next earning reports as well as the typical quarterly "window dressing". This year there's one other outlier: a national election. Should be interesting to see how the financial markets react as we draw closer.

[Dumb ole famrboy]

According to my calculations @ close on 2/19/2020 the Market Cap of the Dow (With market cap of UTX/RTX removed) was 8.51018 trillion @ close on 8/10/2020 8.74754 trillion. MFST market cap went from representing 16.95% to 18.25% and AAPL went from representing 16.73% to 22.57% of the Dow's market cap. Other stocks that have increased their Dow market cap representation are WMT, HD, PG, PFE and UNH. I think we may be in a market phase were the market is adjusting and searching for relative stock values of the different indexes.

[Vantage 8 dude]

According to my calculations @ close on 2/19/2020 the Market Cap of the Dow (With market cap of UTX/RTX removed) was 8.51018 trillion @ close on 8/10/2020 8.74754 trillion. MFST market cap went from representing 16.95% to 18.25% and AAPL went from representing 16.73% to 22.57% of the Dow's market cap. Other stocks that have increased their Dow market cap representation are WMT, HD, PG, PFE and UNH. I think we may be in a market phase were the market is adjusting and searching for relative stock values of the different indexes.

You've brought up an interesting and relevant point. No doubt that many of the tech stocks have really gotten overpriced and represent a major portion of their perspective index/overall market. IMO the move to such stocks is understandable given their outstanding future as well as the quality of earnings/balance sheets. Having said that, there are still other tech companies that offer excellent long term values/and potential. To a lesser degree one could also add many of the healthcare stocks to that list, both from a performance standpoint as well as future prospects. I would really start trying to begin studying areas such as industrials and even some of the better quality energy stocks. The former offers opportunities in both the turn in economic growth both here and abroad (as well as increased on-shore production); the latter offers SELECTED choices in an area that's been beaten more than any other sector over the past year or so.

[Vantage 8 dude]

If you are interested to share I am certainly willing to take.  I have been following some of your stuff and the PRU has been a solid one.  I an not sure if I will be move not he ENB just because I already have some ONEOK and think they are direct overlap.  Although ENB may be better, not sure.

For anyone still hesitant to buy ENB perhaps the following information should help encourage you. In my original post I mentioned that a goodly portion of their cash flow/earnings come from "take-or-pay" arrangements with corporate clients. As a reminder, "take-or-pay" means the customer agrees to pay for a certain amount NO matter the volume ENB puts through its pipelines. Make that number 96%; only 1% is subject to changes in commodity prices!! IMO that's a pretty compelling set up for ENB to not only continue paying its dividend, but also likely to continue growing it. Sounds like a pretty nice investment story!!!

[fullfan]

NM 

[Vantage 8 dude]

Not easy to admit but I comitted a cardinal mistake with retirement savings (401k).  Now looking for some advice or at least informed opinions from this forum.  I believe several on here have a lot of experience and expertise when it comes to investing so here are the details.

I have had a hands off approach to investments in my 401k.  Currently saving 10% and get some company match. 
8-years from retirement.   After the dip and then some rebound I unwisely moved from a Moderate fund (60% stocks 40%bonds) to a Stable Value fund.   Yes 100% of it.  Did this at the beginning of May and though it had bounced back some I also locked in some losses that probably would have been made up through June-present rally if had done nothing.  Lesson learned.

Sorry, but you say you've had a "hand off approach to investments in your 401K" If that's the case then I have to ask why did you move out of the market with an essentially zero investment rate environment ???While I understand your somewhat more cautious approach concerning your fear of losses, considering you have something like 8 years until your retire why would you go completely into a stable fund Not trying to beat you up, however, the LONG track record of the market is one of advances. Obviously, as you're admitted, that guarantees nothing, I would say that this is the main trend I would go by. Here's a suggestion: I assume you have a number of various investment choices in your retirement plan. Not knowing what those choices are IF you have choices that include a long term growth fund then that is where I would start. If you're extremely nervous about the potential direction of equities then you might monitor the make up of the portfolio. While I think the long term outlook of such tech companies as MSFT, Apple, Gooogle, Amazon and others is a nice starting place (and not just because those stocks have been "hot", but because they WILL be a major driving force in the economy during the coming years. Other general areas I believe will gain added attention is healthcare, REITS (non retail), On line commerce and I would expect a recovery in a select group of Industrials.

You also might want to peruse if your plan allows for a more dividend-oriented equity portfolio. With continue low interest expected to continue for the next 1+ years (based on statements by the Federal Reserve) this sector shock continue to prosper given the need for yield, especially for older folks as well as those investors not willing to stick their monies in miserable yielding CDs, bonds and such. In the respect the LAST THING YOU WANT TO DO IS TIE UP MONIES IN SOME TYPE OF BOND FUND. The reason is very simple: your returns are every low, however, over time your risk is high-eventually down the road rates WILL rise and you don't want to have exposure when that occurs. Rising rates absolutely kill longer term fixed income investments.

IMO as you manage your monies you might want to "average in" to the market. Periodically-say once a quarter-you would place a predetermined amount of money back into your investment(s) choice(s). That way you have a disciplined investment game plan and you're also NOT trying to time the market. Remember too that over the long run the markets are almost always you friend.
not

My question is with 8 years to retirement, I would like to move back into a Moderate fund or other fund but with the market at the current highs not sure if it makes sense to move a large chunk in at current levels.   I know no one has a crystal ball and its not a great strategy to try to time the market but I would hate to compound my mistake by getting in at the current highs, see a market correction and not have enough time to recoup what I will continue to put in. 

Any advice for someone with a relatively short horizon?   Could always stay the course with SV fund but 2% annually doesn't seem appealing.

[rzrbackramsfan]

Not easy to admit but I comitted a cardinal mistake with retirement savings (401k).  Now looking for some advice or at least informed opinions from this forum.  I believe several on here have a lot of experience and expertise when it comes to investing so here are the details.

I have had a hands off approach to investments in my 401k.  Currently saving 10% and get some company match. 
8-years from retirement.   After the dip and then some rebound I unwisely moved from a Moderate fund (60% stocks 40%bonds) to a Stable Value fund.   Yes 100% of it.  Did this at the beginning of May and though it had bounced back some I also locked in some losses that probably would have been made up through June-present rally if had done nothing.  Lesson learned.

My question is with 8 years to retirement, I would like to move back into a Moderate fund or other fund but with the market at the current highs not sure if it makes sense to move a large chunk in at current levels.   I know no one has a crystal ball and its not a great strategy to try to time the market but I would hate to compound my mistake by getting in at the current highs, see a market correction and not have enough time to recoup what I will continue to put in. 

Any advice for someone with a relatively short horizon?   Could always stay the course with SV fund but 2% annually doesn't seem appealing.

I might recommend getting a financial advisor.

[Vantage 8 dude]

Not easy to admit but I comitted a cardinal mistake with retirement savings (401k).  Now looking for some advice or at least informed opinions from this forum.  I believe several on here have a lot of experience and expertise when it comes to investing so here are the details.

I have had a hands off approach to investments in my 401k.  Currently saving 10% and get some company match. 
8-years from retirement.   After the dip and then some rebound I unwisely moved from a Moderate fund (60% stocks 40%bonds) to a Stable Value fund.   Yes 100% of it.  Did this at the beginning of May and though it had bounced back some I also locked in some losses that probably would have been made up through June-present rally if had done nothing.  Lesson learned.

My question is with 8 years to retirement, I would like to move back into a Moderate fund or other fund but with the market at the current highs not sure if it makes sense to move a large chunk in at current levels.   I know no one has a crystal ball and its not a great strategy to try to time the market but I would hate to compound my mistake by getting in at the current highs, see a market correction and not have enough time to recoup what I will continue to put in. 

Any advice for someone with a relatively short horizon?   Could always stay the course with SV fund but 2% annually doesn't seem appealing.

A little more ammunition for "staying the course" when it comes to staying invested through thick-or-thin. Statistics going back to 1929 show a very surprising (for some at least) fact of life. Long term fundamentals show that over a various blocks of 10 year intervals the S and P 500 has recorded losses only 6% of the time. Further, for investors who choose to sit out the market during the best 10 days of rallies would have achieved a return of 17%; those who chose to remain, however, scored a return of 16,166%. The study showed that these extreme difference in results especially applied to investors who chose equity based on strong fundamentals. Seem that quality does matter.

BTW there were NO other asset classes-bonds, options or such that delivered anywhere close to the consistency as well as reduced losses. Even for those who are commodity bulls the number of times the various ten year cycles for gold, silver and other types of commodities experienced negative returns 30% of the time.