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This Next Week Gives Us Huge Opportunities

Started by Adam Stokes, February 21, 2015, 06:30:30 pm

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Adam Stokes

February 21, 2015, 06:30:30 pm Last Edit: February 21, 2015, 07:01:28 pm by Adam Stokes
This week Arkansas did what it was supposed to in defeating two very beatable opponents.  Our RPI has remained basically unchanged at 23 throughout the week mainly for two reason.  1)  Unlike last Saturday, teams rated higher than us also beat who they were supposed to, 2) Our opponents were terrible, and the bump to our win percentage was offset but the worsening of our SOS.

As brought up in another thread, there is currently very little separation between the RPI's of the 11 teams in the 15 to 25 range.  #15 Oklahoma is at .6195 and #25 Butler is at .6107, a mere difference of .0088.  For comparison, the gap between #15 Oklahoma and #12 VCU is greater at .0102.

What does this mean?  Opportunity.  Especially this week.

After getting our SOS beat up this past week, we get a chance to make it up against 19-7 Texas A&M and soon to be 27-0 Kentucky (who is up 23-2 against Auburn while I'm typing this, lol.) 

Here's how we will look at the end of the week based on how we perform, all other teams remaining constant:

Win both games:     RPI goes up to 13
Win one game:        RPI goes up to 16
Lose both games:  RPI stays put at 23


Our SOS will also increase from 83 to around 65.

A two seed IMO is out of reach at this point.  Those top 8 teams have a pretty good clamp on those positions, but the rest is well within reach.  Win both games this week and we will be considered by many to be a 3 seed.  Lose one and we will still be a solid 5.  Lose both and we may trickle down to a 7.

Hope Bobby can pick it up against A&M this week and that we can put a good fight to UK on Saturday.


High Octane Hog


 

Boarcephus

Isn't it nice to be talking about seeding instead of just getting into the tournament?  Been awhile since we've been in this position and I must admit, feels pretty damn good!
I need to be more like my dog...if you can't fight it, screw it, or eat it, then piss on it.

LJHOG

We win out and the SEC tourney and we could be 2 seed.  Means we'd get KY's spot which put a smile in my heart.

ishankem

What happens next saturday?:    Worlds collide

Poker_hog

February 21, 2015, 08:07:37 pm #5 Last Edit: February 21, 2015, 08:22:38 pm by Poker_hog
I'm scared to think what uk is going to do to us during that stretch when the back ups are in for like 6 min straight.
Sometimes wrong, but never in doubt

micali

Quote from: Poker_hog on February 21, 2015, 08:07:37 pm
I'm scared to think what uk is going to do to us during that stretch when the backs are in for like 6 min straight.
This game will be a nail biter.  They won't blow us out.  We will play to our opponent. 

alaback

Quote from: High Octane Hog on February 21, 2015, 07:18:15 pm
A four seed would be nice

Don't think there's a huge difference between a 4 and 5 this year.  Would be nice to get a UNI or Butler type in the 2nd round if we make it there.  Prefer that to an Oklahoma, Baylor, or UNC since that's who I see as 4s right now.

Poker_hog

Quote from: micali on February 21, 2015, 08:13:44 pm
This game will be a nail biter.  They won't blow us out.  We will play to our opponent. 

Cals gonna have em ready for us.  Three game streak...
Sometimes wrong, but never in doubt

Letsroll1200

Our biggest game next week is Texas A&M. We need to take care of business against a very good team at home. If you follow SEC basketball and actually watch the games you will see how good A&M is in the front court and back court.

We will have to play our best game of the season to beat A&M at home!

razortv

Quote from: Poker_hog on February 21, 2015, 08:07:37 pm
I'm scared to think what uk is going to do to us during that stretch when the back ups are in for like 6 min straight.

You will see a more traditional sub pattern of 8 maybe 9 players, but not 5 in 5 out. Durham won't play and Bell's time will depend if he is hitting shots early.

High Octane Hog

Quote from: alaback on February 21, 2015, 08:23:37 pm
Don't think there's a huge difference between a 4 and 5 this year.  Would be nice to get a UNI or Butler type in the 2nd round if we make it there.  Prefer that to an Oklahoma, Baylor, or UNC since that's who I see as 4s right now.
I hear ya, I don't like the dreaded 5 seed. I also just cannot see the Oklahoma love, their ranking seems to be a little too strong compared to what they have done, imo.

alaback

Quote from: High Octane Hog on February 21, 2015, 08:58:02 pm
I hear ya, I don't like the dreaded 5 seed. I also just cannot see the Oklahoma love, their ranking seems to be a little too strong compared to what they have done, imo.

I don't know, Oklahoma has looked really impressive at times and also suspect at others.  While they have 3 bad loses (K-State twice and Creighton), they have 6 Top 30 RPI wins where we only have 2.  They swept Okie State, Texas, and good wins over Butler, Baylor and Iowa State.  No doubt their resume is very strong. 

 

choppedporkextrasauce

Quote from: High Octane Hog on February 21, 2015, 07:18:15 pm
A four seed would be nice
a 3 would be better. It's not out of the realm of possibilities.

PORKULATOR

We owe to much to ATM right now. They're one of those teams that for every win they steal from us, I feel we owe them 4 in return. So for the last two years, we owe them 8 in football and 8 in basketball. Hate em
Wps
Everytime I reach a goal or achieve something new in life, someone's beat me there and wrote f♡€% you all over it - JD Salinger
I've got a fever and the only perscription...  is more cowbell.- THE Bruce Dickenson.

Danny J

Quote from: PORKULATOR on February 21, 2015, 09:38:11 pm
We owe to much to ATM right now. They're one of those teams that for every win they steal from us, I feel we owe them 4 in return. So for the last two years, we owe them 8 in football and 8 in basketball. Hate em
Wps
Man....I couldn't agree more. I HATE then with a passion. They have done zilch in terms of anything in recent memory if ever on the court and they are pulling in a top 10 national class and top 2 in the SEC next year. They are loaded with talent. No way they should have that kind of talent in College Station but I digress.

After that beat down they put on us last year I hope we smash them in the face on Tuesday. Our team will remember.

Hoggish1

Quote from: micali on February 21, 2015, 08:13:44 pm
This game will be a nail biter.  They won't blow us out.  We will play to our opponent. 

I hope this ^ is about our next game.

I'm only thinking of TAMU and so should the team.  We need another suffocating D performance and then, and only then, will it be KY time...

HotlantaHog

Hopefully the team and the fans are very focused on Texas A&M, a very good opponent... meaning for the fans I hope there is a great crowd at Bud Walton (fine to discuss Kentucky game.)