Not All Kicks Created Equal

[murthage]

Based on statistics from the NFL in 2010:

"The major thing effecting kickers is distance. In 2010, kickers were perfect on kicks of less than 20 yards, made 95% of kicks between 20 and 30 yards, 88% between 30 and 40 yards, 74% between 40 and 50 yards, and 60% on kicks beyond 50."

Recognizing that we are not a pro team, it should be reasonably accurate to conclude, that the probability of us winning last night was somewhere between 90% and 95%. 

This was with NO possibility of a sack or interception. 

Bielema indicated in his presser that we did not execute the FG properly, which (my comment) includes Blocking, Centering and Placement of the Ball.  Cole Hedland, basically, had the odds stacked against him before he entered the equation.

To digress, I noticed two things on the missed FG that would have won the Ole Miss game in regular time:  1) Blocking was not adequate, and 2) The placement of the ball had the laces directly facing the kicker, which IMO would have most likely resulted in a miss to the left, even if not blocked, based on the trajectory of the ball when leaving his foot.

Bottom Line:
The FG was the safest play with exceptionally high odds, but the execution was so similar to the botched Ole Miss FG that I conclude that the Special Teams Coaches let one get by them, and this should be an area of special emphasis in the future.

And finally, we should have easily won the game using the FG, but we should have never been in a position where MSU had 51 points.  Bielema said that we have no LB depth because of injuries, and this must be corrected in upcoming selection of new recruits.

"In Bielema I Trust"...... when it comes to Arkansas' future football success.

[Steef]

I know it might be picking at nits, but...

That was not a 'missed field goal'.

It was a 'blocked field goal'.

Whatever else we may think of the call, the kicker didn't miss that kick.

[murthage]

You are absolutely correct, and that is not nit picking.... I was trying to indicate that by saying that Cole Hedland was doomed before he even had a chance to kick the ball.

I support your statement "Only Jesus Matters". 

[Razorback_Mack]

I'm not trying to bash you but those NFL stats are meaningless. We don't have a NFL kicker and we don't have NFL players blocking for him. Our kicker is 8/13 and how often Adam Vinateri or Dan Bailey makes kicks has no bearing on that. Everybody in the SEC knows our kicking game is suspect.

I'll take my chances with the QB that was 7/7 with TD's in the red zone. That's 100%.

[Razorback_Mack]

I know it might be picking at nits, but...

That was not a 'missed field goal'.

It was a 'blocked field goal'.

Whatever else we may think of the call, the kicker didn't miss that kick.

I believe in the old saying don't leave it up to the kicker. Too many things can go wrong. Bad snap, bad hold, miss a block etc. The kicking game failed.

[lefty08]

Anyone blaming Hedlund on that kick isn't paying attention. And of his 5 misses the majority of those have been blocked. Last night no kicker would have had a chance

[Mr. Porkleone]

Wrong to all. Missed block. Granny could've block that

[Razorback_Mack]

Anyone blaming Hedlund on that kick isn't paying attention. And of his 5 misses the majority of those have been blocked. Last night no kicker would have had a chance

Just another reason to go for the throat on the previous downs.

[Steef]

I believe in the old saying don't leave it up to the kicker. Too many things can go wrong. Bad snap, bad hold, miss a block etc. The kicking game failed.

Going to pick at nits again.

'The kicking game' on a team, in a game, is more than one completed field goal. It's how well all kicks are performed, how the team works as a team during the play, how well we cover the other team's receptions...etc.

Overall, our 'kicking game' did GREAT last night. For the most part, kicked well, covered great and forced one fumble that led to a touchdown.

We had one blocked kick. Which, if you look, was a breakdown of one block. Also, if you look, their defensive line was penetrating our Oline pretty much all night.

[Steef]

I'm not trying to bash you but those NFL stats are meaningless. We don't have a NFL kicker and we don't have NFL players blocking for him. Our kicker is 8/13 and how often Adam Vinateri or Dan Bailey makes kicks has no bearing on that. Everybody in the SEC knows our kicking game is suspect.

I'll take my chances with the QB that was 7/7 with TD's in the red zone. That's 100%.

Our kicker is 8/13 because several of his attempts have been at the edge of his range.

At the range he was at last night, he's 7-9. That's 78%, which is pretty good. And one of THOSE was also blocked.

[Razorback_Mack]

Going to pick at nits again.

'The kicking game' on a team, in a game, is more than one completed field goal. It's how well all kicks are performed, how the team works as a team during the play, how well we cover the other team's receptions...etc.

Overall, our 'kicking game' did GREAT last night. For the most part, kicked well, covered great and forced one fumble that led to a touchdown.

We had one blocked kick. Which, if you look, was a breakdown of one block. Also, if you look, their defensive line was penetrating our Oline pretty much all night.

Ok....the field goal unit failed. It has been pedestrian all season.

[Steef]

Ok....the field goal unit failed. It has been pedestrian all season.

If you want to be exclusively critical, without including any positive attributes, then you would point out that 2-13 attempts have been blocked.

15%.

Whether you label that 'pedestrian', 'fixable' or 'intolerable'....is opinion. Everyone has one.

[Razorback_Mack]

If you want to be exclusively critical, without including any positive attributes, then you would point out that 2-13 attempts have been blocked.

15%.

Whether you label that 'pedestrian', 'fixable' or 'intolerable'....is opinion. Everyone has one.

Thanks for pointing that out, 15% of your kicks being blocked is awful. We don't even attempt many kicks outside 40 yards because our kicker can't elevate the football. That's the reason hedlund redshirted last year.

[Steef]

Thanks for pointing that out, 15% of your kicks being blocked is awful. We don't even attempt many kicks outside 40 yards because our kicker can't elevate the football. That's the reason hedlund redshirted last year.

THAT...is a fair analysis. Though I think 'awful' is a bit extreme.

Yes, he does seem to have that problem. However, it wasn't really the issue LAST night.

[Ironhawg]

One thing that was just infuriating about the blocked kick was that immediately before the kick the announcers were talking about Brown and how he is the one guy you have to make absolutely sure you get blocked.  So who gets the block?  The one guy we absolutely needed to insure we blocked!

[Steef]

One thing that was just infuriating about the blocked kick was that immediately before the kick the announcers were talking about Brown and how he is the one guy you have to make absolutely sure you get blocked.  So who gets the block?  The one guy we absolutely needed to insure we blocked!

No one else on our Oline had had much success blocking him all night.

Some guys are just that good. Remember the defensive end for Ohio State who ate our lunch in the Sugar Bowl? No one could stop him.

[theFlyingHog]

I am in no way saying that this one was on the kicker.

Do we have any other options at kicker? Did I hear them say McFain is our long range guy?

[Ironhawg]

No one else on our Oline had had much success blocking him all night.

Some guys are just that good. Remember the defensive end for Ohio State who ate our lunch in the Sugar Bowl? No one could stop him.

This is very true.  I was kind of disappointed with both offensive and defensive lines last night.  It just looked like they were getting whipped on both sides most of the night. 

[westside_player]

I'm not trying to bash you but those NFL stats are meaningless. We don't have a NFL kicker and we don't have NFL players blocking for him. Our kicker is 8/13 and how often Adam Vinateri or Dan Bailey makes kicks has no bearing on that. Everybody in the SEC knows our kicking game is suspect.

I'll take my chances with the QB that was 7/7 with TD's in the red zone. That's 100%.

yes, but if he threw a pick, or threw a TD then MSU scored again, you would have been saying "why not play for the FG"

[Razorback_Mack]

No one else on our Oline had had much success blocking him all night.

Some guys are just that good. Remember the defensive end for Ohio State who ate our lunch in the Sugar Bowl? No one could stop him.

I think that's another reason why people are so puzzled why we got so conservative. We didn't run block well all night. Yet, BB came out postgame and said he had as much confidence in that 3rd down call as he did in any play. He also referenced that if we put the ball in the air we risk throwing a pick.

Bottom line is people can say what they want or believe what they want to believe. I say leave the ball in the hands of your senior QB who is now 2nd in the country in total QBR over a FG unit that has been mediocre at best.

If we had made that FG I don't think it would've been enough anyway. Dak had plenty of time to get his team into FG range. We put the game in the hands of our poor FG unit and planned to put in the hands of our D which had been terrible by any standard imaginable.

[Razorback_Mack]

yes, but if he threw a pick, or threw a TD then MSU scored again, you would have been saying "why not play for the FG"

PM me your email address and I'll send you screen shots of a text conversation previous to the kick proving otherwise.

If you're that freaking worried about it...

[Inhogswetrust]

I believe in the old saying don't leave it up to the kicker. Too many things can go wrong. Bad snap, bad hold, miss a block etc. The kicking game failed.

What part of the statistics of it being perhaps the best odds of success at that location on the field did you miss? 

[jbu5]

When Hocker kicked for us, he started towards the ball when it was snapped and kicked it a split second after it was placed down. I noticed that Hedlund did not approach the ball until it was put down by the holder. This gave the line time for penetration. if kicked on time, it would not have been blocked. Did anyone else notice that? We blame the blocking, but i think the timing is what contributed to the block.

[longpig]

What part of the statistics of it being perhaps the best odds of success at that location on the field did you miss?

+1
Not a coach in the world with a kicker dressed out would have played it any differently.

[thefisher]

I believe in the old saying don't leave it up to the kicker. Too many things can go wrong. Bad snap, bad hold, miss a block etc. The kicking game failed.

This is the reason MANY coaches would have attempted to kick the field goal on 3rd down.  I certainly would have. If there was a failure, like there was last night with the missed block, a bad snap, etc. you simply have the holder lay on the ball. It still faces them to burn their last time out and you just reset, address the problem that happened, and kick the field goal on 4th down!

In essence you get two chances to hit the almost certain field goal. That is as almost certain as it gets in football.