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OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)

Started by WILL CLINTON, August 28, 2011, 09:41:36 pm

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clutch

Quote from: onebadrubi on October 14, 2014, 10:56:21 pm
It would also help if id just lay off the steelers for the rest of the year

Heard that. I'm 0-4 in betting the steelers this year. I've bet their games both ways, I've picked them and picked against them. Every decision was the wrong one.

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

Let's make some waves.

 

onebadrubi

Quote from: clutch on October 15, 2014, 07:05:31 am
Heard that. I'm 0-4 in betting the steelers this year. I've bet their games both ways, I've picked them and picked against them. Every decision was the wrong one.

Todd Haley sucks, no offense Jeff.  I love tomlin, but he's gonna have to kick Haley to the curb


Hawgndaaz

it's scary but I am clearing more in baseball right now than football. I keep having great mornings on Saturdays then get hammered in the evening games.

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

After NFL play past weekend

College 31-19-2 on 5* plays and up

+12110.00. That includes smaller bets just didn't break all down yet

Pros
Decent weekend +1450.00

12-11
-1570.00

YTD
+10540.00


Gonna try and tally after every week to save work down the rd at years end.
Let's make some waves.

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

Quote from: onebadrubi on October 15, 2014, 08:17:05 am
Todd Haley sucks, no offense Jeff.  I love tomlin, but he's gonna have to kick Haley to the curb

None taken. I didn't want Haley and still don't.
I think he married into the Rooney family or something.

I hope they allow Tomlin to get rid of him after the season.

I also like Tomlin and don't think he's the problem.

Those dang TE screen passes are killing drives.

The reverse call against Tampa on 1st and 10 from their own 20 was almost as baffling as a few of the plays hogs have called.
Let's make some waves.

DadVader1

So far, this week, I've done 2 units each on:

TX A&M +11.5
Fresno +17
Wash +21
Cincy -14 (hook)
Baylor -8.5
UCLA -7
Kansas + 14 (hook)

The trend that is 26-0 going into this week likes Minn -12.5, Wash +21, TCU -8.5, and Kansas +14.  I may take TCU later in the week, depending on what news becomes available about the qb's wrist.

onebadrubi

Quote from: DadVader1 on October 15, 2014, 04:01:23 pm
So far, this week, I've done 2 units each on:

TX A&M +11.5
Fresno +17
Wash +21
Cincy -14 (hook)
Baylor -8.5
UCLA -7
Kansas + 14 (hook)

The trend that is 26-0 going into this week likes Minn -12.5, Wash +21, TCU -8.5, and Kansas +14.  I may take TCU later in the week, depending on what news becomes available about the qb's wrist.

Where is this trend at to be viewed?   Free?

DadVader1

It's not available; it's a homemade concoction.  I probably run over a million "what if" scenarios each week and try all kinds of different filters and combinations.  It isn't statistically sound by any stretch of the imagination, but I figure if it has hit at 26-0 so far, there is a good chance that it will continue to hit well above 50% moving forward.  Last year, late in the season, I found one trend that had hit over 90% with over 50 occurrences.  With the additional "programming for dummies" that I picked up late last season, I'm able to run a LOT more scenarios this year so am hoping to find one or two of those super trends a bit earlier this year. 

DadVader1

With the new folks in the thread, I probably should have included a disclaimer earlier.  This is my 5th year doing this and my third year playing with trends.  I've come out well ahead 4 out of 5 years (and all three years after I started playing with trends).  I'm still very much a beginner, my trends are NOT "real," professional, statistically supportable ones, I lack the handicapping talents of folks like like Jeff, Sir, Widespread, and others, and you'll do MUCH better tailing Jeff's dime plays.  Last year, I hit at around 64% on the year.  This year is a bit more unpredictable, and the rating systems are doing much worse.  Still, I'm pretty much on track where I was last year, largely b/c I learned to keep my plays small for the first few weeks and can run so many more "what if" scenarios.   

Don't put too much weight on any one trend that I post.  You might notice that I've only played two of the teams in the 26-0 trend.  For week 8, I have probably 20+ trends that are hitting at least 15-0.  That's too small of a sample size to get too excited about any one in particular, but if the same team pops up in several promising trends, I like my chances of staying ahead of the juice.

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

Quote from: DadVader1 on October 15, 2014, 11:16:05 pm
With the new folks in the thread, I probably should have included a disclaimer earlier.  This is my 5th year doing this and my third year playing with trends.  I've come out well ahead 4 out of 5 years (and all three years after I started playing with trends).  I'm still very much a beginner, my trends are NOT "real," professional, statistically supportable ones, I lack the handicapping talents of folks like like Jeff, Sir, Widespread, and others, and you'll do MUCH better tailing Jeff's dime plays.  Last year, I hit at around 64% on the year.  This year is a bit more unpredictable, and the rating systems are doing much worse.  Still, I'm pretty much on track where I was last year, largely b/c I learned to keep my plays small for the first few weeks and can run so many more "what if" scenarios.   

Don't put too much weight on any one trend that I post.  You might notice that I've only played two of the teams in the 26-0 trend.  For week 8, I have probably 20+ trends that are hitting at least 15-0.  That's too small of a sample size to get too excited about any one in particular, but if the same team pops up in several promising trends, I like my chances of staying ahead of the juice.


You are giving me too much credit homie. Nobody can ever make money following me unless they use the same bankroll management.  Oh and Jeff's plays plus this. That plus this will effff up your margins every time!
Let's make some waves.

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

Let's make some waves.

 

DadVader1

Yeah, I kinda skipped the whole bankroll management thing (which accounted for my losing season before you guys taught me that).  As your bankroll has grown, I've learned that one of your dime plays THIS year isn't the same as a dime play in the past (which means that you're doing the whole bankroll management thing VERY well).  These days, I don't send texts to my friends about our "ringer's" plays, unless you go over a dime :)  Regardless, THANK YOU for helping us pad our records and bankrolls!  I just hope that my spreadsheet stuff is marginally helpful as you filter stuff down to your final cut. 

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

Quote from: DadVader1 on October 15, 2014, 11:16:05 pm
With the new folks in the thread, I probably should have included a disclaimer earlier.  This is my 5th year doing this and my third year playing with trends.  I've come out well ahead 4 out of 5 years (and all three years after I started playing with trends).  I'm still very much a beginner, my trends are NOT "real," professional, statistically supportable ones, I lack the handicapping talents of folks like like Jeff, Sir, Widespread, and others, and you'll do MUCH better tailing Jeff's dime plays.  Last year, I hit at around 64% on the year.  This year is a bit more unpredictable, and the rating systems are doing much worse.  Still, I'm pretty much on track where I was last year, largely b/c I learned to keep my plays small for the first few weeks and can run so many more "what if" scenarios.   

Don't put too much weight on any one trend that I post.  You might notice that I've only played two of the teams in the 26-0 trend.  For week 8, I have probably 20+ trends that are hitting at least 15-0.  That's too small of a sample size to get too excited about any one in particular, but if the same team pops up in several promising trends, I like my chances of staying ahead of the juice.

Oh it is.  I know a couple guys that are almost exclusively trend type betters.  They have spread sheets up the ying yang.  They both make money every year. They don't make a lot because they hit at about 55% no matter the size of the bet.
Let's make some waves.

Hawgndaaz

tonight:
I like Va Tech -2 @ Pitt (sorry jeff) 2 units

Any thoughts on pats -10 at home vs Jets?
Jets are horrible but just read that brady is 6-0 on Thursday games, but only 2-6 at the spread.

onebadrubi

Quote from: Hawgndaaz on October 16, 2014, 12:39:56 pm
tonight:
I like Va Tech -2 @ Pitt (sorry jeff) 2 units

Any thoughts on pats -10 at home vs Jets?
Jets are horrible but just read that brady is 6-0 on Thursday games, but only 2-6 at the spread.

Money line bet?

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

Quote from: Hawgndaaz on October 16, 2014, 12:39:56 pm
tonight:
I like Va Tech -2 @ Pitt (sorry jeff) 2 units

Any thoughts on pats -10 at home vs Jets?
Jets are horrible but just read that brady is 6-0 on Thursday games, but only 2-6 at the spread.

I don't blame ya. Pitt underachieving big time this year. If I was gonna bet it I would take Va Tech also.

Slight lean for me toward Jets + tonight, but don't think I'm gonna play it.

Let's make some waves.

DadVader1

The spreadsheets like Va Tech and Utah quite a bit tonight.  Both of those came close to making my final cut.

widespreadsooie

I'm leaning VA Tech too, but will probably stay away. Don't like to bet road teams on Thursday nights. Really like Temple +7.5 tomorrow night.

DadVader1

The sheets show a slight lean toward Temple, but it didn't show up in enough categories to make my preliminary cut.

Hawgndaaz


jkstock04

October 16, 2014, 10:37:13 pm #7722 Last Edit: October 18, 2014, 09:33:13 am by jkstock04
Here's what I have NCAA wise from tonight through Saturday...good luck everyone!

Virginia Tech vs. Pitt u45, NCAAF....5 unit bet

Utah -2.5 -110, NCAAF....2 unit bet

Baylor -7 -120 (buy ½ pt), NCAAF....3 unit bet

Georgia Tech -2.0 -115, NCAAF....2 unit bet

Boise State -17.0 -115, NCAAF.....2 unit bet

Clemson vs. Boston College u45 -120 (buy ½ pt), NCAAF.....5 unit bet

Tulane vs. Central Florida u45 -120 (buy ½ pt), NCAAF.....3 unit bet

Missouri vs. Florida u48 NCAAF.....2 unit bet

Virginia vs. Duke u51½ -110, NCAAF.....2 unit bet

Washington vs. Oregon o64 -120 (buy ½ pt), NCAAF.....2 unit bet

Boston College +5.0 -110, NCAAF.....2 unit bet

Added:

Iowa +5.0 -115, NCAAF....2 unit bet

Mizzou +6.0 -115, NCAAF....2 unit bet

Kentucky +10.5 -110, NCAAF....2 unit bet

Thanks for the F Shack. 

Love,

Dirty Mike and the Boys

Hawgndaaz

0-2 last night. thank goodness i didnt take the Vtech game too. -4 units.

 

Tai_Mai_Shu

Michigan State -15 1/2 - Indiana just lost their QB for the year. I put down 2u

DadVader1

I found a few trends that were hitting close to 80% with close to 50 occurrences and a few more that had hit at 19-0 & 18-0.  They made me feel a bit better about my final cut, so I went back and added one more unit to most of my plays.  Here's what I've done so far:

TX A&M +11.5  2 units (added TX A&M +13.5 1 unit)
Fresno +17  3 units
Wash +21 2 units (added Wash +22 1 unit)
Cincy -14 (hook) 2 units (added Cincy -13.5 1 unit)
Baylor -8.5 2 units (addeded Bay -9 1 unit)
UCLA -7 2 units
Kansas + 14 (hook) 2 units

I may add another unit to UCLA.  The line had moved more than I expected on that one, so I'll have to reassess.

widespreadsooie

All I've done so far is Washington +20.5 and MIZ +6. Still looking at BC +5, So. Miss +9.5, Akron -3, and UMASS -14. Also bet Temple +8 for tonight. I try to stay away from weekday action but really like Temple here. They are a much improved team from last year with strong QB play.

jkstock04

Quote from: widespreadsooie on October 17, 2014, 12:24:55 pm
All I've done so far is Washington +20.5 and MIZ +6. Still looking at BC +5, So. Miss +9.5, Akron -3, and UMASS -14. Also bet Temple +8 for tonight. I try to stay away from weekday action but really like Temple here. They are a much improved team from last year with strong QB play.
I was strongly thinking of adding mizzou +6 to my ticket as well....but I despise Florida so there may be some bias coming through to influence me!
Thanks for the F Shack. 

Love,

Dirty Mike and the Boys

Fort Dweller

Took the Jets last night.  Looking at 2 pro's and 2 Joe's for the weekend:  Seattle -7.5 and Arizona -4  Marshall -22 and Baylor -7.5
Quote from: Fatty McGee on June 03, 2012, 09:43:59 pmRabid gay rampage?  That's quite a phrase.  I picture rundown neighborhoods being gentrified by angry, fit, childless, and well dressed mobs.
Quote from: sharpd1 on September 23, 2012, 08:33:21 pmSome of the people posting on here aren't good at brain stuff.
Quote from: PonderinHog on June 26, 2013, 11:15:49 pm
What if he chews a Poptart into the shape of two men holding hands - or worse?
Quote from: PharmacistHog on February 19, 2015, 10:09:07 am
Did you really click on the "report to moderator" button.  And not only that but do it on yourself? 

DadVader1

Quote from: widespreadsooie on October 17, 2014, 12:24:55 pm
Still looking at BC +5, So. Miss +9.5, Akron -3, and UMASS -14. Also bet Temple +8 for tonight. I try to stay away from weekday action but really like Temple here. They are a much improved team from last year with strong QB play.

The sheets show leans toward Akron and Temple but show a lean for E. Mich in the UMass game.  One of the nice Temple trends was a QB comparison that is 10-0.

Hawgndaaz

I'm on Temple and boise for 2units each.

Do not see Fresno being competitive on the blue field.
RE: Temple...Houston is playing a receiver at QB now, correct?

DadVader1

Yes, Ward (5'11", 165 lbs) replaced a struggling O'Korn in the UCF game and had his first start last week against Memphis, going 17/28 for 188, 1 TD and 1 INT and had 96 yds rushing.   

widespreadsooie

Quote from: DadVader1 on October 17, 2014, 01:23:59 pm
The sheets show leans toward Akron and Temple but show a lean for E. Mich in the UMass game.  One of the nice Temple trends was a QB comparison that is 10-0.

I like that QB trend, thank Vader.

widespreadsooie

OK, so now my Saturday card is finalized and looks like this:

MIZ +6
Washington +20.5
BC +5
So. Miss +9.5
Minny -13.5

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

I absolutely hate this weeks college card.

Purdue +14 / 3 units
WV +8 / 3 units
Georgia -3 / dime play
Washington +20.5 / 5 units
OU -7 / 5 units
Vols +17 / 5 units
Okie st +10 / 5 units
Nebraska -6.5 / dime play




Let's make some waves.

yraciv

Quote from: Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson on October 17, 2014, 04:42:18 pm
I absolutely hate this weeks college card.

Purdue +14 / 3 units
WV +8 / 3 units
Georgia -3 / dime play
Washington +20.5 / 5 units
OU -7 / 5 units
Vols +17 / 5 units
Okie st +10 / 5 units
Nebraska -6.5 / dime play



Hoping you stay cold on the Hogs! If we cover this one, we better be getting a win.  That Bama bet must have been tough on you all the way around.

yraciv

October 17, 2014, 05:58:53 pm #7736 Last Edit: October 20, 2014, 12:09:37 pm by yraciv
Will update with my plays in the morning.

3 Units
Clemson -5 L
Notre Dame +9.5 W

2 Units
Duke -3 W
Colorado St -5 L
Wyoming +3 L
New Mexico St +6 L

1 Unit
Iowa St +11.5 W
Arkansas +3 L
FIU +21.5 L

YTD 37-33-1, +10 Units

Dropkick

2 units each on

Iowa +4.5
Duke -3
Tennessee +16.5
Hogs +3.5

Fort Dweller

I'm curious as to why most people are picking Tenner to cover.  Anyone interested in sharing their thought process?
Quote from: Fatty McGee on June 03, 2012, 09:43:59 pmRabid gay rampage?  That's quite a phrase.  I picture rundown neighborhoods being gentrified by angry, fit, childless, and well dressed mobs.
Quote from: sharpd1 on September 23, 2012, 08:33:21 pmSome of the people posting on here aren't good at brain stuff.
Quote from: PonderinHog on June 26, 2013, 11:15:49 pm
What if he chews a Poptart into the shape of two men holding hands - or worse?
Quote from: PharmacistHog on February 19, 2015, 10:09:07 am
Did you really click on the "report to moderator" button.  And not only that but do it on yourself? 

Dropkick

Quote from: Fort Dweller on October 17, 2014, 07:21:21 pm
I'm curious as to why most people are picking Tenner to cover.  Anyone interested in sharing their thought process?
Ole Miss is going to exhale sooner or later?

McKdaddy

Quote from: Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson on October 17, 2014, 04:42:18 pm
I absolutely hate this weeks college card.

Purdue +14 / 3 units
WV +8 / 3 units
Georgia -3 / dime play
Washington +20.5 / 5 units
OU -7 / 5 units
Vols +17 / 5 units
Okie st +10 / 5 units
Nebraska -6.5 / dime play






This, w/ differences in odds....

UGA  -2.5
UT  +16.5
UW  +20.0
PU  +13.5
Don't buy upgrades, ride up grades.

"You are everything that is wrong with this place . . . Ban me"

"CPI, ex-food and energy, is only good for an anorexic pedestrian"--Art Cashin

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

Quote from: Fort Dweller on October 17, 2014, 07:21:21 pm
I'm curious as to why most people are picking Tenner to cover.  Anyone interested in sharing their thought process?

Tenner is absolutely loaded with talent. Incredibly young.  Just like we think the hogs are building so are they. They are simply doing so with kids that came out of high school with a lot of stars by their name.  By the end of next year they will be the team to beat in the east. 

Ole miss may roll them, but I gotta take vols and points!
Let's make some waves.

McKdaddy

Quote from: Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson on October 17, 2014, 08:21:56 pm
Tenner is absolutely loaded with talent. Incredibly young.  Just like we think the hogs are building so are they. They are simply doing so with kids that came out of high school with a lot of stars by their name.  By the end of next year they will be the team to beat in the east. 

Ole miss may roll them, but I gotta take vols and points!


Preach on, Bro Jeff!
Don't buy upgrades, ride up grades.

"You are everything that is wrong with this place . . . Ban me"

"CPI, ex-food and energy, is only good for an anorexic pedestrian"--Art Cashin

Fort Dweller

Quote from: Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson on October 17, 2014, 08:21:56 pm
Tenner is absolutely loaded with talent. Incredibly young.  Just like we think the hogs are building so are they. They are simply doing so with kids that came out of high school with a lot of stars by their name.  By the end of next year they will be the team to beat in the east. 

Ole miss may roll them, but I gotta take vols and points!

Fair enough.  I took your first paragraph and applied it but with a negative connotation.  Young team that struggles to pass protect and run going up against that d-line.  With OM secondary being even better, that should hamper a ho-hum passing attack.

It's the first home game for OM since their victory over Bama and it's homecoming.

I appreciate the answer Jeff.  I'm learning and looking for any bits I can get.
Quote from: Fatty McGee on June 03, 2012, 09:43:59 pmRabid gay rampage?  That's quite a phrase.  I picture rundown neighborhoods being gentrified by angry, fit, childless, and well dressed mobs.
Quote from: sharpd1 on September 23, 2012, 08:33:21 pmSome of the people posting on here aren't good at brain stuff.
Quote from: PonderinHog on June 26, 2013, 11:15:49 pm
What if he chews a Poptart into the shape of two men holding hands - or worse?
Quote from: PharmacistHog on February 19, 2015, 10:09:07 am
Did you really click on the "report to moderator" button.  And not only that but do it on yourself? 

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

October 17, 2014, 08:30:06 pm #7744 Last Edit: October 17, 2014, 09:12:48 pm by Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson
Quote from: Fort Dweller on October 17, 2014, 08:27:56 pm
Fair enough.  I took your first paragraph and applied it but with a negative connotation.  Young team that struggles to pass protect and run going up against that d-line.  With OM secondary being even better, that should hamper a ho-hum passing attack.

It's the first home game for OM since their victory over Bama and it's homecoming.

I appreciate the answer Jeff.  I'm learning and looking for any bits I can get.

Buddy it's very possible that I couldn't be more wrong if my butt was screwed into my shoulders :)
Let's make some waves.

Fort Dweller

Quote from: Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson on October 17, 2014, 08:30:06 pm
Buddy it's very possible that I couldn't be more wrong if my but was screwed into my shoulders :)

Visual...hilarity
Quote from: Fatty McGee on June 03, 2012, 09:43:59 pmRabid gay rampage?  That's quite a phrase.  I picture rundown neighborhoods being gentrified by angry, fit, childless, and well dressed mobs.
Quote from: sharpd1 on September 23, 2012, 08:33:21 pmSome of the people posting on here aren't good at brain stuff.
Quote from: PonderinHog on June 26, 2013, 11:15:49 pm
What if he chews a Poptart into the shape of two men holding hands - or worse?
Quote from: PharmacistHog on February 19, 2015, 10:09:07 am
Did you really click on the "report to moderator" button.  And not only that but do it on yourself? 

DadVader1

The spreadsheets show a lean toward Ole Miss but not enough to make it stand out.  The rating systems are not doing as well as they did the last couple of years, and the dynamics have changed.  Historically (meaning the last 3 years), the rating systems have done better with favorites and with road teams.  This year, they're doing better with dogs and with road teams, but they're still under-performing for the most part.  It's been a weird but FUN season. 

widespreadsooie

Jeff,

I'm curious as to why you're high on OU?

widespreadsooie

Lost on Temple, 18-16 YTD. About to exile week night plays like I did totals.

Hawgndaaz