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OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)

Started by WILL CLINTON, August 28, 2011, 09:41:36 pm

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Dropkick


jkstock04

Quote from: onebadrubi on October 02, 2014, 10:07:02 am
No such thing as easy money when odds are at stake.  But, I'd take it.  I do think though that Bama will face it's toughest defense to date when they play at Ole Miss.  You also have to consider that Vegas tends to give home team a 7 point advantage.  That means do you see Bama a -14 team at home in this game?  Also this new bama QB has not taken a snap in a hostile environment.  Will be a good game to watch. 
Was strongly thinking of taking Ole Miss.
Thanks for the F Shack. 

Love,

Dirty Mike and the Boys

 

onebadrubi

Those taking Ole Miss, are you taking Ole miss because they will lose by 3 or 4 or because you think Ole Miss will beat Bama?  Just curious.  I'm not real sure I'll play it because of the  uncertainty surrounding the game.  I don't think we've seen Hugh Freeze in this big of a game either. 

jkstock04

Pretty big card for a Thursday (3 games not including baseball) but we will see what happens lol:

Packers -7.....4 unit bet

FIU/Florida Atlantic under 48....2 unit bet

Oregon/Arizona over 78....2 unit bet
Thanks for the F Shack. 

Love,

Dirty Mike and the Boys

The Hogfather

As of right now, I really feel like Mississippi State is a great bet for Saturday.  I need to look at it some more, but I feel like Texas A&M is overrated (not because we played them close).

onebadrubi

Quote from: Dropkick on October 02, 2014, 11:25:28 am
I like UCF tonight -2 units

Why not just take the money line?  i got +120 on mine, so youd win 2.4 units.  I haven't made a pick on this game and may not even play it.  But just noticed that.  Hope this helps if you haven't made the bet. 

DadVader1

I ended up making more plays this week but dropping back to 1/2 unit plays because of the reduced data that was readily available week.  These fell in some nice trends 100% for 15 occurrences, 95% for 20 occurrences, 90% for 30 occurrences, and 75% for 40 occurrences.  Still, I don't have a warm cozy feeling about this week, so I stepped the amounts down to 1/2 units.  Hopefully thepredictiontracker will get back up and running by next week.

SC -4
TX A&M +3 (bought the hook)
UAB +9
ULM +13
Miami FL +1.5
Vandy +33.5
OK -5
Utah St +21
Memphis +4.5

The Hogfather

Quote from: DadVader1 on October 02, 2014, 01:16:38 pm
I ended up making more plays this week but dropping back to 1/2 unit plays because of the reduced data that was readily available week.  These fell in some nice trends 100% for 15 occurrences, 95% for 20 occurrences, 90% for 30 occurrences, and 75% for 40 occurrences.  Still, I don't have a warm cozy feeling about this week, so I stepped the amounts down to 1/2 units.  Hopefully thepredictiontracker will get back up and running by next week.

SC -4
TX A&M +3 (bought the hook)
UAB +9
ULM +13
Miami FL +1.5
Vandy +33.5
OK -5
Utah St +21
Memphis +4.5


Guess not...

DadVader1

One of the reasons that I backed off to 1/2 units was b/c I don't have a warm, cozy feeling about the TX A&M/Miss St game.  I almost passed on it.

onebadrubi

Quote from: DadVader1 on October 02, 2014, 01:24:34 pm
One of the reasons that I backed off to 1/2 units was b/c I don't have a warm, cozy feeling about the TX A&M/Miss St game.  I almost passed on it.

Still like utah st with Chuckie out?

SPAL


onebadrubi

Quote from: sir-pigs-a-lot on October 02, 2014, 01:29:03 pm
Vikings/packers U49
FAU -6
Arizona/Oregon  u84

Vargas or Tillman got a chance in hell tonight?

I'm working on my picks currently

DadVader1

Quote from: onebadrubi on October 02, 2014, 01:28:32 pm
Still like utah st with Chuckie out?

Not as much as with him in, but Garretson has the last game and a half under his belt as the qb, so I'll risk 1/2 unit at +21 points.

 

Dropkick

Quote from: onebadrubi on October 02, 2014, 01:15:55 pm
Why not just take the money line?  i got +120 on mine, so youd win 2.4 units.  I haven't made a pick on this game and may not even play it.  But just noticed that.  Hope this helps if you haven't made the bet. 
Thanks

McKdaddy

Not sure how much I trust MSU to win a game that matters. Yeah, they beat LSU a couple of weeks ago, but I had an LSU homer tell me "msu will beat us (LSU) by a touchdown as young as we are."

Leans:
Wisc -8
Ags +3
Don't buy upgrades, ride up grades.

"You are everything that is wrong with this place . . . Ban me"

"CPI, ex-food and energy, is only good for an anorexic pedestrian"--Art Cashin

McKdaddy

Don't buy upgrades, ride up grades.

"You are everything that is wrong with this place . . . Ban me"

"CPI, ex-food and energy, is only good for an anorexic pedestrian"--Art Cashin

SPAL

Quote from: onebadrubi on October 02, 2014, 01:37:02 pm
Vargas or Tillman got a chance in hell tonight?

I'm working on my picks currently

Vargas doesn't. No value in that game. Tillman vs max scherzer is tough but there is good value. I would go under 8 but I'm off of MLB tonight.

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

Green Bay -9 / 2 units
Under 47 / 2 units

2 team parlay same way 2 units.
Let's make some waves.

yraciv

I'm taking Oregon -22 for 2 units tonight to start off the week.

onebadrubi

Looking like the U is the play with this rain and Ponder starting.  Unfortunately that doesn't bode well for my wagers, good luck to you guys who waited and made it!

SPAL

Boys....

I'm going for the dream, the pinnacle, the prize in the betting world..... Otherwise known as THE MIDDLE.

I've got Arizona/Oregon under 84
Then its dropped down to 81, so I'm playing over 81.

Im pretty pumped. I've never hit the middle.

yraciv

Quote from: sir-pigs-a-lot on October 02, 2014, 06:56:42 pm
Boys....

I'm going for the dream, the pinnacle, the prize in the betting world..... Otherwise known as THE MIDDLE.

I've got Arizona/Oregon under 84
Then its dropped down to 81, so I'm playing over 81.

Im pretty pumped. I've never hit the middle.

Good luck.  I've never played a middle under 6 points, and they are a maybe once or twice a season rarity.

SPAL

I didn't play large either way but its not a lot of room to middle.

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

Let's make some waves.

 

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

Quote from: sir-pigs-a-lot on October 02, 2014, 06:56:42 pm
Boys....

I'm going for the dream, the pinnacle, the prize in the betting world..... Otherwise known as THE MIDDLE.

I've got Arizona/Oregon under 84
Then its dropped down to 81, so I'm playing over 81.

Im pretty pumped. I've never hit the middle.

Good luck !!!
Let's make some waves.

onebadrubi


widespreadsooie

I've locked in four plays for now:

UNC +3 (I think UNC wins SU, but I'll take the points)
Utah +13.5
Rutgers -2.5
GT -2

Still looking at MI St -6.5 and a TN/Stanford ML parlay, would love insight from our regulars on those two plays.

widespreadsooie

Quote from: onebadrubi on October 02, 2014, 09:31:09 pm
What are you referring to when you say bought the hook?

He risked more juice to get -21 rather than -21.5.

widespreadsooie

Quote from: sir-pigs-a-lot on October 02, 2014, 06:56:42 pm
Boys....

I'm going for the dream, the pinnacle, the prize in the betting world..... Otherwise known as THE MIDDLE.

I've got Arizona/Oregon under 84
Then its dropped down to 81, so I'm playing over 81.

Im pretty pumped. I've never hit the middle.

I admire the aggressiveness, but in my opinion, middles only present value with in game wagering. 

onebadrubi

Quote from: widespreadsooie on October 02, 2014, 10:10:13 pm
I admire the aggressiveness, but in my opinion, middles only present value with in game wagering.

Or if a line moves drastically in a week. 

Thanks for the hook answer.  Just never referred to it as that.

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

Quote from: widespreadsooie on October 02, 2014, 10:04:59 pm
He risked more juice to get -21 rather than -21.5.
Quote from: onebadrubi on October 02, 2014, 09:31:09 pm
What are you referring to when you say bought the hook?

Bought a half point.
Let's make some waves.

DadVader1

Quote from: widespreadsooie on October 02, 2014, 10:02:05 pm
I've locked in four plays for now:

UNC +3 (I think UNC wins SU, but I'll take the points)
Utah +13.5
Rutgers -2.5
GT -2

Still looking at MI St -6.5 and a TN/Stanford ML parlay, would love insight from our regulars on those two plays.


The spreadsheets show a slight lean in favor of FL but nowhere near enough to make a final cut.  The Stanford game doesn't stand out on the spreadsheets either way, but my gut likes the Stanford part of the play. 

DadVader1

That's what I get for dissing RichRod and passing on a spreadsheet play because of him.   I'm always glad to be wrong when the spreadsheets kick my gut's arse.

jkstock04

Quote from: jkstock04 on October 02, 2014, 12:29:21 pm
Pretty big card for a Thursday (3 games not including baseball) but we will see what happens lol:

Packers -7.....4 unit bet  W

FIU/Florida Atlantic under 48....2 unit bet PUSH

Oregon/Arizona over 78....2 unit bet  L
Positive 2 units on the night, not too shabby. Wish I would've had more on Green Bay...hindsight though.
Thanks for the F Shack. 

Love,

Dirty Mike and the Boys

McKdaddy

Via Bruce Feldman:

Rich Rod won big at WVU and is working wonders at AZ. Maybe the issue at Michigan was Michigan, not him. Rich Rod is 53-15 is the 3 years before Michigan & 3 years after his time at Michigan, and that includes 4 wins over Top-10 teams.
Don't buy upgrades, ride up grades.

"You are everything that is wrong with this place . . . Ban me"

"CPI, ex-food and energy, is only good for an anorexic pedestrian"--Art Cashin

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

Was shocked at the over on GB / Minn

What does everyone think? Oregon that bad, bad night for Zona vs UTSA? Or what?
Let's make some waves.

McKdaddy

I'm not sure what to think about Oregon. I didn't get to watch the game b/c my client appreciation party didn't end till about 10, then I had to drive back to Tulsa afterwards.

But I do know I had placed future bets on Oregon winning the Pac-12, being in the playoff, and winning it all.  >:(
Don't buy upgrades, ride up grades.

"You are everything that is wrong with this place . . . Ban me"

"CPI, ex-food and energy, is only good for an anorexic pedestrian"--Art Cashin

DadVader1

Quote from: McKdaddy on October 03, 2014, 06:52:21 am
Via Bruce Feldman:

Rich Rod won big at WVU and is working wonders at AZ. Maybe the issue at Michigan was Michigan, not him. Rich Rod is 53-15 is the 3 years before Michigan & 3 years after his time at Michigan, and that includes 4 wins over Top-10 teams.

Good find. Thanks for sharing it.

onebadrubi

Quote from: Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson on October 03, 2014, 06:53:42 am
Was shocked at the over on GB / Minn

What does everyone think? Oregon that bad, bad night for Zona vs UTSA? Or what?

RichROd ruined that UTSA game with awful play calling.  He had that back wilson running it down their throat all day and starting throwing it around.  Last night we watched him execute the way he needs too (I feel asleep early in the 4th though).  I lost a lot of money on him at UTSA, but I did make it back up last night. 

Oregon is in trouble.  Mariotta has all the tools, but that offensive line is below UCA and Atech caliber.  I think we are watching the decline of Oregon now since Kelly has left.  That coach there now is not what people thought nor is nick aliota the DC anyone ever thought.  They also have a top corner right now that can't be replaced.  Oregon won't be ranked at the end of the year. 

I wished I would have taken my MLB bets, I wanted Vargas and Tillman, that would have paid out very NICE! 

jkstock04

October 03, 2014, 08:45:09 am #7539 Last Edit: October 03, 2014, 10:53:00 am by jkstock04
Football card from now til Saturday:

Louisville -2.0 NCAAF.....2 unit bet

Pittsburgh vs. Virginia u47.0, NCAAF.....5 unit bet

Wisconsin -7  NCAAF.....4 unit bet

Colorado State -14, (buy ½ pt), NCAAF......3 unit bet

Nebraska vs. Michigan State u60 (buy ½ pt), NCAAF.....2 unit bet

Utah State +21.0, NCAAF.....2 unit bet

Tennessee -3.0 +100, NCAAF......2 unit bet

Louisville vs. Syracuse u47 (buy ½ pt), NCAAF....2 unit bet

**Adding:

Notre Dame +3 (buy ½ pt), NCAAF......3 unit bet

Pitt +6, NCAAF.....2 unit bet

Utah +13 +100, NCAAF....4 unit bet

Good luck everyone.
                   
Thanks for the F Shack. 

Love,

Dirty Mike and the Boys

Hawgndaaz

Quote from: onebadrubi on October 03, 2014, 08:28:48 am
RichROd ruined that UTSA game with awful play calling.  He had that back wilson running it down their throat all day and starting throwing it around.  Last night we watched him execute the way he needs too (I feel asleep early in the 4th though).  I lost a lot of money on him at UTSA, but I did make it back up last night. 

Oregon is in trouble.  Mariotta has all the tools, but that offensive line is below UCA and Atech caliber.  I think we are watching the decline of Oregon now since Kelly has left.  That coach there now is not what people thought nor is nick aliota the DC anyone ever thought.  They also have a top corner right now that can't be replaced.  Oregon won't be ranked at the end of the year. 

I wished I would have taken my MLB bets, I wanted Vargas and Tillman, that would have paid out very NICE! 

You're also seeing the league adjust to Oregon's offense more than anything. Coaches study that game film like a 14 year old guy studies porn. I truly believe the uptempo stuff is gimmicky and that coaches are figuring it out.

Hawgndaaz

I tailed several of you guys picks last night, didn't post but went 1-2. Love seeing the pack demolish folks in a rainy lambeau. I think they played Nichols State though.

onebadrubi

Quote from: Hawgndaaz on October 03, 2014, 08:49:55 am
I tailed several of you guys picks last night, didn't post but went 1-2. Love seeing the pack demolish folks in a rainy lambeau. I think they played Nichols State though.

If you tailed you shoulda went 2-1?  Wasn't the consensus FAU-L, UCF-W, and Zona?  Ohhh Jeff went wiht Oregon.  I'd tail jeff over me any day of the week too though! 

I think oregon has the skilled guys there and one of the best QB's.  They could borrow any D-1 line last night and probably win.  3 man rush constantly blew up 5 men line. 

onebadrubi


yraciv

Thursday woes continue for me.  Crazy thing is that Oregon play went against things I've been saying since the start of the year. Helfrich isn't Kelly and Oregon will suffer, and Rich Rod should have that Zona offense rolling in year 3.  Just didn't think the collapse would come at a Thursday night in Autzen.

McKdaddy

Quote from: Hawgndaaz on October 03, 2014, 08:48:38 am
You're also seeing the league adjust to Oregon's offense more than anything. Coaches study that game film like a 14 year old guy studies porn. I truly believe the uptempo stuff is gimmicky and that coaches are figuring it out.

That bodes well for us vs today's spread-happy SEC. Love the line about studying porn....so true.
Don't buy upgrades, ride up grades.

"You are everything that is wrong with this place . . . Ban me"

"CPI, ex-food and energy, is only good for an anorexic pedestrian"--Art Cashin

Hawgndaaz

Quote from: McKdaddy on October 03, 2014, 08:59:58 am
That bodes well for us vs today's spread-happy SEC. Love the line about studying porn....so true.

Like him or not, it is BB's thought process. Why not do what is always competitive? It isn't anything cutting edge but it still wins games. I have no idea if it will ever move us into a top 10 program but I at least feel like it will be consistent.

I tailed jeff's packers over and points, also took Oregon. figured Thursday night at their place would be lopsided.

DadVader1

thepredictiontracker is back up.  TGIF!!!  Updating the sheets now.  I don't expect much new to come from this update, since I had pieced together most of the key rating systems already. 

onebadrubi

Quote from: DadVader1 on October 03, 2014, 09:54:45 am
thepredictiontracker is back up.  TGIF!!!  Updating the sheets now.  I don't expect much new to come from this update, since I had pieced together most of the key rating systems already.

Sure there is, you can not up your ante to 1 complete unit per bet!  haha

let us know what he pumps out when he inputs his data.  I've never played off of those, but might visit his site today if I have time to read around on it. 

Dropkick