Andy Katz Tweet

[cardsNhogs]

@ESPNAndyKatz: "@GatorFrank: @ESPNAndyKatz If Ark can win 2 out of the 3 remaining road games, I think they get in, they need SOMETHING on the road" True

[Hog1751]

only other way would be 1 road game and 2 in the tourney.

[Uncommon]

Think we get in if we can win at least 4 of the last 6 games.

[The Divine Swine]

I just know we are showing some real progress. Yes we still suck, but in MA's second year has shown progress. I am hoping for some possibility of an NCAAT bid, but we should for sure be in the NIT and possibly home court. Things are looking up.

[Uncommon]

I just know we are showing some real progress. Yes we still suck, but in MA's second year has shown progress. I am hoping for some possibility of an NCAAT bid, but we should for sure be in the NIT and possibly home court. Things are looking up.

Hate having to say wait till next year but I believe we will enter the national college basketball picture next year and hopefully stay there after that.

[checkraiser88]

All I know is I hope this board doesn't go in FULL meltdown mode if we happen to sustain this run we are on and still not get in the tournament. I can see it now. We haven't had to watch selection Sunday in years and I can guarantee you that there are plenty of teams that will be snubbed...

[popcornhog]

Think we get in if we can win at least 4 of the last 6 games.

Agreed -- assuming a couple of SECT wins.

[Danny J]

Think we get in if we can win at least 4 of the last 6 games.

If we go 4-2 we would need 3 sect wins including one against UF or Mizzou maybe UK depending on how they finish out.

[Uncommon]

Agreed -- assuming a couple of SECT wins.

I think 1 win in the SEC tournament with 4 more regular season wins would more than likely get us in.

[Uncommon]

If we go 4-2 we would need 3 sect wins including one against UF or Mizzou maybe UK depending on how they finish out.

That would mean we would have to win the SEC tournament if we had to win 3 SEC Tournament games.  1 SEC Tournament win with 4 more regular season wins would more than likely get us in.

[Danny J]

I think 1 win in the SEC tournament with 4 more regular season wins would get us in.

Would be great but I think we will need more than that. Most of the national media say we need to finish 5-1 and still need at least 1 maybe 2 sect wins.

[Adam Stokes]

Still feeling the magic number is 22 wins.  That will put our RPI in the high 40's, low 50's.  That would mean we need 4-2 with two SEC tourney wins, 5-1 with one, etc.  23 will make us a lock, but 22 and we have a great shot.

[jamie72921]

@ESPNAndyKatz: "@GatorFrank: @ESPNAndyKatz If Ark can win 2 out of the 3 remaining road games, I think they get in, they need SOMETHING on the road" True

This will make HA mad.

[Danny J]

That would mean we would have to win the SEC tournament if we had to win 3 SEC Tournament games.  1 SEC Tournament win with 4 more regular season wins would more than likely get us in.

The sect is 5 days starting on a wednesday this year with the bottom 4 teams playing on day one. We could still win three games starting on thursday and lose the sect champ game while getting a bye on day one.

http://www.secdigitalnetwork.com/NEWS/tabid/473/Article/235185/sec-mens-basketball-scheduletournament-formats.aspx

[Uncommon]

The sect is 5 days starting on a wednesday this year with the bottom 4 teams playing on day one. We could still win three games starting on thursday and lose the sect champ game while getting a bye on day one.

http://www.secdigitalnetwork.com/NEWS/tabid/473/Article/235185/sec-mens-basketball-scheduletournament-formats.aspx

Miscounted a round.  Thanks for the correction.  +1.

[Danny J]

Still feeling the magic number is 22 wins.  That will put our RPI in the high 40's, low 50's.  That would mean we need 4-2 with two SEC tourney wins, 5-1 with one, etc.  23 will make us a lock, but 22 and we have a great shot.

I don't think there is a magic number per se but it really depends on how our road games shake out. If we win out at home and beat LSU while losing to UF and Mizzou then that puts us at 21. We would likely need at least two sect wins maybe 3 depending on who we play.

The problem we have even with the SECt is the lack of good teams in the SEC. Really there is Mizzou and UF and that is it. UK is on the way down.

[checkraiser88]

Do ya'll think it's a disadvantage as far as Tourney hopes to have a first round bye in the Sec tournament? Or I guess it really doesn't matter because even if we had to play first round it would be against a low RPI team.

[Danny J]

Miscounted a round.  Thanks for the correction.  +1.

No problem....still taking time for me to get used to the extra round as well. Like I mentioned above the problem we have is the SEC is so weak we would need a good SECt win against Mizzou or UF if we lose to both on the road which is likely.

The best we can realistically hope for is to finish 4-2 and play Mizzou or UF and beat them on day three of the SECt which would give us two wins in the SECt. I think then that two wins would be enough but only if we beat one of those two teams on a neutral floor. We would need three wins if the best we can beat is a UGA, LSU and Ole miss teams and that would still put us on the bubble.

To reiterate.....we need to beat UF or Mizzou in Nashville if we finish the regular season 4-2.

[Danny J]

Do ya'll think it's a disadvantage as far as Tourney hopes to have a first round bye in the Sec tournament? Or I guess it really doesn't matter because even if we had to play first round it would be against a low RPI team.

Yes...because that would mean we lost most of our games down the stretch if we finished in the bottom 4 of the SEC so in that scenario we would have to win in it all to get a NCAAt invite.

If you mean a second day bye then it would be advantageous because that means we likely finished 5-1 or 4-2 depending on what other SEC teams did.

[PORKULATOR]

Just win baby, just win.

[onebadrubi]

Think we get in if we can win at least 4 of the last 6 games.

One of those 4 wins has to be agianst the only two high RPI teams left on the schedule, that is Mizzou or Florida.  If not I do not think our RPI climbs high enough without help from the wins in the tourney. 

[Uncommon]

Do ya'll think it's a disadvantage as far as Tourney hopes to have a first round bye in the Sec tournament? Or I guess it really doesn't matter because even if we had to play first round it would be against a low RPI team.

Think we need to be at least a 5, 6, or 7 seed in the tournament.

[KlubhouseKonnected]

Hate having to say wait till next year but I believe we will enter the national college basketball picture next year and hopefully stay there after that.

I worry about having to replace our only consistent scoring threats.

[alaback]

What irks me about this season is that there were very few games that we could have easily lost.  Only Auburn and Mizzou come to mind.  On the flip side, there were several games we could have won that would have made us a lock.

1.  Vandy and SC were inexecusable for a team with enough talent to take care of business at those venues.
2.  Could have very well stolen the game @ Bama.
3.  Up by 11 at the half against Wisconsin would have been a stong resume boost in March.
4.  We were never really in the Syracuse game, but one we were primed to win like Michigan last year.

We're not beating Florida on the road, but stealing one @ Mizzou would be a major validation of the Anderson hire.  It's highly doubtful but not out of the realm of possibility.  Beating LSU on the road may be enough to give this team the confidence to do it.

[ClemsonHog]

IMO, need 6 more wins among regular season and SECT games

[Pragmatic PiG]

What irks me about this season is that there were very few games that we could have easily lost.  Only Auburn and Mizzou come to mind.  On the flip side, there were several games we could have won that would have made us a lock.

1.  Vandy and SC were inexecusable for a team with enough talent to take care of business at those venues.
2.  Could have very well stolen the game @ Bama.
3.  Up by 11 at the half against Wisconsin would have been a stong resume boost in March.
4.  We were never really in the Syracuse game, but one we were primed to win like Michigan last year.

We're not beating Florida on the road, but stealing one @ Mizzou would be a major validation of the Anderson hire.  It's highly doubtful but not out of the realm of possibility.  Beating LSU on the road may be enough to give this team the confidence to do it.

You can add Texas am to #1. If ya lose to gutter trash squads, road or not, the bubble will not be kind

[alaback]

You can add Texas am to #1. If ya lose to gutter trash squads, road or not, the bubble will not be kind

Maybe true, but A&M has a top 100 RPI.  Vandy is outside the top 100 and USCe is outside the to 200.  Killer losses for sure.  The difference from being a likely 8-5 after tomorrow night or 10-3 in conference.

[Hooch]

Would be great but I think we will need more than that. Most of the national media say we need to finish 5-1 and still need at least 1 maybe 2 sect wins.

Not saying you are wrong but who is saying that?

[jry04]

Would be great but I think we will need more than that. Most of the national media say we need to finish 5-1 and still need at least 1 maybe 2 sect wins.

Many have said 22 wins and we are in. That would mean 5-1 and 1 sect, 4-2 and 2 sect...

5-1 and 2-3 sect wins isn't what we need to get in. That is what we need to be a lock and competing for a 6 or 7 seed. We already have more top 25 RPI wins than every bubble team but Nova, and as many if not more top 50 than the bubble teams. 8 more wins would put us in the top 40 or so RPI, and would give us about 2 or 3 more RPI top 50 wins.

If we go 4-2, that will put our RPI around 60. 2 wins in the SECT would put our RPI around 45-50, and our SOS in the top 60. That would easily rival any other bubble team. People need to understand our RPI isn't that great now, but we finish the season with 4 RPI top 100 teams, 3 being top 50. It will shoot up if we just take care of business at home and steal one or two on the road.

[Danny J]

Not saying you are wrong but who is saying that?

All of the guys I have heard when listening to ESPN/CBS radio plus 3 or 4 on Bo's show. The guy from USA Today, Eric Prisbell, is who I heard say it today. They all tend to say the same thing. If we are not looking to the SECt at all we must finish 5-1 to even have a shot and that is only because the bottom group of at large teams all seem to be pretty average. They then usually go on to say if we finish 4-2 and can't beat Mizzou/UF on the road then we must beat one of them in the SECt or win 3. We can't have any more bad losses.

[Danny J]

Many have said 22 wins and we are in. That would mean 5-1 and 1 sect, 4-2 and 2 sect...

5-1 and 2-3 sect wins isn't what we need to get in. That is what we need to be a lock and competing for a 6 or 7 seed. We already have more top 25 RPI wins than every bubble team but Nova, and as many if not more top 50 than the bubble teams. 8 more wins would put us in the top 40 or so RPI, and would give us about 2 or 3 more RPI top 50 wins.

If we go 4-2, that will put our RPI around 60. 2 wins in the SECT would put our RPI around 45-50, and our SOS in the top 60. That would easily rival any other bubble team. People need to understand our RPI isn't that great now, but we finish the season with 4 RPI top 100 teams, 3 being top 50. It will shoot up if we just take care of business at home and steal one or two on the road.

I haven't heard anybody say we can go 4-2 and win two SECt games and get in taking none of the competition in mind. There is no 22 and we are in magic number. As a matter of fact the gentleman today on Bo's show, who also works and meets with the selection committee, said that it boils down to the teams we win and lose to when taking overall wins and losses into consideration. We can win 22 and not even be close to getting in. We can go 4-2 losing only to UF/Mizzou and then win two SECt games against say UGA and LSU and have zero shot at the tournament. On the flip side we can do all the above to finish the regular season, beat UGA on day two of the SECt and then beat Mizzou and still not get in depending on how Mizzou finishes the season. Florida would give us a much better chance but that only still puts us on the bubble.

I do agree that 5-1 and two SECt wins will get us in. Three would get us in and likely get us a decent seed.

While this is all nice to be discussing again I do think it is likely all for naught as I am not sure we can finish 4-2 in the SEC and even if we do somehow beat LSU I am not sure we can win anything on a neutral court. I would love to be wrong.

[jry04]

I haven't heard anybody say we can go 4-2 and win two SECt games and get in taking none of the competition in mind. There is no 22 and we are in magic number. As a matter of fact the gentleman today on Bo's show, who also works and meets with the selection committee, said that it boils down to the teams we win and lose to when taking overall wins and losses into consideration. We can win 22 and not even be close to getting in. We can go 4-2 losing only to UF/Mizzou and then win two SECt games against say UGA and LSU and have zero shot at the tournament. On the flip side we can do all the above to finish the regular season, beat UGA on day two of the SECt and then beat Mizzou and still not get in depending on how Mizzou finishes the season. Florida would give us a much better chance but that only still puts us on the bubble.

I do agree that 5-1 and two SECt wins will get us in. Three would get us in and likely get us a decent seed.

While this is all nice to be discussing again I do think it is likely all for naught as I am not sure we can finish 4-2 in the SEC and even if we do somehow beat LSU I am not sure we can win anything on a neutral court. I would love to be wrong.

Bruce Pearl said 4-2 gets us in with a couple SECT wins, or beat Missouri and LSU on the road and we are lock regardless of SECT play.

If we go 4-2, it would be just about impossible to play UGA and LSU. If we are the 5 seed we will play a bad opponent first, and then someone like UK, Missouri, or Ole Miss. If we are a 4 seed, we will play one of the three I just listed first. To say we could be "nowhere near in" is just silly. If we go 4-2, losing to UF and Missouri, and win 2 games in the SECT our RPI will be in the 50s with a SOS in the 50-60 range. That would likely get us in depending on what happens in other tournaments and to other bubble teams.

[Kenny Sowers]

That would likely get us in depending on what happens in other tournaments and to other bubble teams.

People forget a part of the equation (as you mention here) is what some other bubble teams do. We could still go 4-2 and win one in the conference tournament and still be left out. I think the more likely scenario is we screw the pooch before then, but all the same.