The rest of the way - it's still an uphill climb

[swinesation]

Best game of the season tonight. After we win at MO, we'll be 18-5 and will have won 6 straight SEC games. We'll just about have the NCAA in the bag, right? Not so fast.

I believe the program is headed in the right direction. I think Mike should stay whether we make the tourney or not. This team has actually exceeded my expectations a little bit. Many are confident we're going to surge into the tourney, but I don't share that confidence. I don't think this team is that talented.

On the other hand, the people who say we have no quality wins are dead wrong. Wins at Tennessee and at Vanderbilt were both quality wins. Both teams are now Top 50 RPI teams.

Let's say we win at Mo and at LSU. Let's say we lose at SC and at Florida. None of those outcomes are certain, but they're highly likely. That would put us at 19-7. I think we need at least 23 wins before the SEC tourney to get into the NCAA. That means we need to win 4 of the remaining 5 games. It's no small task.

vs Vanderbilt - Vandy won at A&M, a much improved team, yesterday. Their RPI is 47 and they will come seeking revenge.
vs Ole Miss - This should be a win, but not at all guaranteed.
vs Texas A&M - Also should be a win, but also not guaranteed.
at Auburn - I wouldn't count Auburn out at home. Will be a challenge.
vs Georgia - Georgia is a 52 RPI team that just took Kentucky to overtime at Kentucky. You think this will be an easy win?

Will we win 4 out of those 5 games? Maybe, maybe not. There's a chance, but it'll be close. My best guess is we'll got 3-2 in those 5 games, ending up with 22 wins and on the outside looking in at the tourney. But I sure hope my guess is wrong. The Vandy game is huge. Win that one and our chances increase. Either way, it might come down to the final game of the season against Georgia.

[cityhog]

There is not a single guaranteed win left on our schedule. We could win or lose them all. Every game is a crap shoot. Will the 'Bama' hogs show up or the 'OSU' hogs show up? I hope for the best and expect the worst. Keeps things evened out.

[hobhog]

Tonight was big win. Not the margin but the win itself. I really was worried this team could fold after OSU but they bounced back. If they can string a few wins together they might get so momentum. Never know. I certainly am not sold either way yet.

[rzrbackramsfan]

I knew it was going to be hard but yes that's even harder than I thought.  However, I think we will win 1 out of 2 or maybe even both the uf or sc games depending on what's on the line. I feel better about Florida though.  I'm nervous about lsu and mu, but that's probably just because I'm paranoid. 

Good post though swinesation.

[BannerMountainMan]

There is not a single guaranteed win left on our schedule. We could win or lose them all. Every game is a crap shoot. Will the 'Bama' hogs show up or the 'OSU' hogs show up? I hope for the best and expect the worst. Keeps things evened out.

(knock on wood) but @Missouri and maybe @LSU are given wins TBH.

[MikePiazza]

There isn't a game left on the schedule that I don't think they could win. They shouldn't lose at home the rest of the way.

In '15 you knew you were going to lose at Rupp at the end of February. This team won at S. Carolina two years ago and nearly won at Florida each of the last two years, one of which with a bad team. They'll at least split those two road games.

I think 25-6 (14-4) is a realistic goal and is attainable. I hope what we saw in the second half tonight is just scratching the surface of what this team can accomplish.

[HognitiveDissonance]

I felt good about this game---yes, it was a home game against a Bama team who struggles offensively, but also just as much because of what happened Saturday in that debacle. How could this team not be motivated to play better? So I felt good.

Now the flip side. Yes, they should beat Missouri, the worst team in the league. But it also comes after a great game tonight, so the tendency is to let up a bit. Basically the opposite of the OSU to Bama scenario. But also remember this: the 2014-15 team barely escaped there 61-60 on a game MO should have won. Their guy missed two free throws late when only one of them would have forced overtime, and both would have won.

Anyone who thinks Mizzou or LSU are sure wins is a fool.

[hawginbigd1]

OP I agree, sorry I don't trust this team, so nobody should be putting any hay in the barn in regards to the tourney. The reason I don't trust them, is because they will not come out consistently in every game with the right level of defensive intensity.

[Pork Twain]

Only Florida and South Carolina should be a real threat if we play like we did last night

[jjdlc]

I'm really hoping the OSU game was that wake up call that some teams need to light a fire under them to finish strong. 

[Pork Twain]

With this many new players, we all knew it was going to take them a while to hit their groove.  Hopefully that has happened and I can start loving MA again.

[TushCrush]

The beautiful thing about the rest of the way ... we get to watch it all unfold.

[hawgfan4life]

Take it to the bank that AR will lose a game they shouldn't and will win one of SC and FL.  Fans will be ready to lynch MA after the loss and will have us in the final four after the win.  Some will be critical no matter what happens. 

[Hoggish1]

But, how much to you hope your guess is right?

Suggestion:  Stay home for the rest of the games because you have the wrong mojo...

[TheRazorback500]

I just want to beat Missouri. They have enough talent to make things interesting. One step at a time.

[MikePiazza]

I just want to beat Missouri. They have enough talent to make things interesting. One step at a time.

Missouri is very likely the worst Power 5 team in America other than Oregon State. They don't have talent is the problem. Kim Anderson was an abysmal hire. If they don't go 0-18 I'll be shocked.

[rzrbackramsfan]

Missouri is very likely the worst Power 5 team in America other than Oregon State. They don't have talent is the problem. Kim Anderson was an abysmal hire. If they don't go 0-18 I'll be shocked.

It's quite amazing.  Missouri has really nice bball talent.

I doubt Oregon st. Is worse though.

[Swinesong1]

Missouri is very likely the worst Power 5 team in America other than Oregon State. They don't have talent is the problem. Kim Anderson was an abysmal hire. If they don't go 0-18 I'll be shocked.

Using the star system, their talent is pretty much equal to ours.   Even with all the defections. 

[hawginbigd1]

OP I agree, sorry I don't trust this team, so nobody should be putting any hay in the barn in regards to the tourney. The reason I don't trust them, is because they will not come out consistently in every game with the right level of defensive intensity.

As I was saying......

[The_Iceman]

As I was saying......

Good call.

[HognitiveDissonance]

I felt good about this game---yes, it was a home game against a Bama team who struggles offensively, but also just as much because of what happened Saturday in that debacle. How could this team not be motivated to play better? So I felt good.

Now the flip side. Yes, they should beat Missouri, the worst team in the league. But it also comes after a great game tonight, so the tendency is to let up a bit. Basically the opposite of the OSU to Bama scenario. But also remember this: the 2014-15 team barely escaped there 61-60 on a game MO should have won. Their guy missed two free throws late when only one of them would have forced overtime, and both would have won.

Anyone who thinks Mizzou or LSU are sure wins is a fool.

And good call by me, too.

Another call for you: we will beat Vandy by double digits, inspiring more talk of 'all is well'.
Then we will go to LSU, and who knows what will happen down there.

I actually think we will pull one out at LSU, so I'm predicting 2-0 this week.