Oil Stocks are Losers

[hawgbawb]

Don't be suckered into oil stocks, folks.  Their heyday is over. For good.

http://energyfuse.org/the-second-automotive-revolution-implications-for-the-oil-industry/#.Vv5v-hUUKkw.twitter

[hawgbawb]

Or, if you don't like The Fuse as a source.

http://cleantechnica.com/2016/03/30/electric-vehicles-will-deflate-demand-for-oil/

http://www.bloomberg.com/features/2016-ev-oil-crisis/

[ricepig]

What's wrong, nobody bite on this in the politics forum?

[BigBrandonAllenFan]

I guarantee you'll see $26/barrel again, unless you're dying soon.

Ricepig guaranteed that $26 a bbl oil will happen again.  I hope he is right, because it will take the rest of the markets down with it, and when that happens, I'll be jumping in as deep as I can go in the market funds.

For crude to get back to $26 from today's price of $36, it will constitute about a 30% drop in price.  That is steep, but the latest indications from the Saudis' is that they are not slowing production, which is a good barometer for Ricepig's prediction.  When the Saudis' don't slow production, they force everyone else to continue the same, and the glut continues.

[BigBrandonAllenFan]

Oil futures ended sharply lower on Friday, taking their weekly loss to nearly 7%, after comments from a Saudi Arabian prince cast doubt on whether the major crude producer would participate in any plan to stabilize global output...

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-prices-continue-to-retreat-in-the-face-of-supply-rise-2016-04-01

[ricepig]

Ricepig guaranteed that $26 a bbl oil will happen again.  I hope he is right, because it will take the rest of the markets down with it, and when that happens, I'll be jumping in as deep as I can go in the market funds.

For crude to get back to $26 from today's price of $36, it will constitute about a 30% drop in price.  That is steep, but the latest indications from the Saudis' is that they are not slowing production, which is a good barometer for Ricepig's prediction.  When the Saudis' don't slow production, they force everyone else to continue the same, and the glut continues.

I'm not saying it's going to $26 soon, only that it will hit $26/b again sometime in our lifetime, haha.

[BigBrandonAllenFan]

I'm not saying it's going to $26 soon, only that it will hit $26/b again sometime in our lifetime, haha.

If the Saudis' continue to stand firm it will likely be much sooner than later.  I smell another 10% drop in crude during the next couple of weeks.  It dropped 7% this last week, and with the new news on Saudis' plans to continue production at full bore, the decline will probably continue.  It will run level at best.

[ricepig]

If the Saudis' continue to stand firm it will likely be much sooner than later.  I smell another 10% drop in crude during the next couple of weeks.  It dropped 7% this last week, and with the new news on Saudis' plans to continue production at full bore, the decline will probably continue.  It will run level at best.

True, but I never trust anything anyone says in OPEC, or pretty much any government anywhere, haha. One thing that has occurred in this rally and showed again today, is decoupling of oil and the stock market. It's actually going back to the old, "low prices will be good for the economy and consumer" thought pattern of the last 25 years. I've said it before, I'm an investor and take a long term look to stocks and securities. I'll trade commodities on a much shorter thought pattern.

[hawgbawb]

http://www.teslarati.com/tesla-crushes-nearly-250000-model-3-reservations/

Less than a day after Elon Musk officially unveiled the jaw-dropping Model 3 at the Tesla Design Center, he took to Twitter to announce that 232,000 reservations have been placed. The figure isn't surprising considering earlier in the day Musk tweeted that 180,000 Model 3 deposits were accepted in just 24 hours since the reservation window opened. This crushes our earlier predictions that Tesla would sell 100,000 units within the first day.
Read more at http://www.teslarati.com/tesla-crushes-nearly-250000-model-3-reservations/#YFJuF6gvOeHgZBty.99

[ricepig]

It appears to be a nice car, now let's see him actually deliver it, haha.

[hawgbawb]

It appears to be a nice car, now let's see him actually deliver it, haha.

No small feat

[Kenny Hawgins]

Oil stocks going down is temporary and, rest assured, all it takes is one major geopolitical event to send them sky high. 

Meanwhile, bawb is giddy over a car that doesn't exist yet from an overvalued company while tens of thousands of people are out of work.  Yay...

[BigBrandonAllenFan]

Oil stocks going down is temporary and, rest assured, all it takes is one major geopolitical event to send them sky high.

Never a truer word spoken, Kenny.  One major oceanic oil spill, one Sadam Hussein setting fires, news of OPEC curtailing production, and some ect's...

It's not a question of if, it's a question of when.

[ricepig]

No small feat

Yeah, can't get the current model delivered, good luck on the new one.

[hawgbawb]

Yeah, can't get the current model delivered, good luck on the new one.

When sales outstrip production, that is a good problem to have.

[ricepig]

When sales outstrip production, that is a good problem to have.

Lol, actual production isn't meeting stated targets due parts shortage and other production maladies, that's not a good problem. Let's see in 2017 how many still have their refundable down payment on the 3, especially since most analyst say it will be second quarter of 2018 for the car to roll off the line. As I've said, it appears to be a potentially good car, let's see it in mass production.

[hawgbawb]

Lol, actual production isn't meeting stated targets due parts shortage and other production maladies, that's not a good problem. Let's see in 2017 how many still have their refundable down payment on the 3, especially since most analyst say it will be second quarter of 2018 for the car to roll off the line. As I've said, it appears to be a potentially good car, let's see it in mass production.

Bottom line is that lots of folks want to trade in their flame burners for electric Teslas.  Think that will get Ford and GM's attention?  This reinforces the OP. 

[Kenny Hawgins]

After a while, over-promising and under-delivering will cause people to take notice.  If the economy continues downward into a recession, you can pretty safely bet that over-valued, novelty companies will take the biggest hit in stock price.

[ricepig]

Bottom line is that lots of folks want to trade in their flame burners for electric Teslas.  Think that will get Ford and GM's attention?  This reinforces the OP. 

Your definition off "lots" is laughable.  One does have to admire your dedication, haha.

[HamSammich]

Don't be suckered into oil stocks, folks.  Their heyday is over. For good.

http://energyfuse.org/the-second-automotive-revolution-implications-for-the-oil-industry/#.Vv5v-hUUKkw.twitter

Im an oil man.... I agree with this. Its worth some investment.

But until there is war in the ME or there is a tariff on opec oil... its not going to be a boom.

The problem with the last 6 years oil boom is that every country can now produce a ton of friggin oil. And opec decided to try an economic war on oil the regain market share. It will go back up. But not for a while.


Id look into mining, there are a lot of metals that are worth a TON now that are being mined and unlike oil they are still super valued and hard to get.


How are my opinions based? I work internationally for Schlumberger.



edit--- btw if you are patient then a 20 year investment in oil is perfectly ok. Oil makes plastic and many many many chemicals for mankind. Its not just energy.

[PEtrader]

It's horrible,  horrible I tell you.

I only made 17% today on my oil trade vs the 18% I made yesterday.

[BigBrandonAllenFan]

It's horrible,  horrible I tell you.

I only made 17% today on my oil trade vs the 18% I made yesterday.

Good play.  The yo-yo effect.

[PEtrader]

These high returns on killing me!  I hate making money,  AHHHHHHHH

[BigBrandonAllenFan]

These high returns on killing me!  I hate making money,  AHHHHHHHH

No doubt.  It is painful.

The oil, nat gas, energy, and gold stocks/funds have had some great fluxes in the last 5 months.  If you jumped in right and jumped out right, you made a lot of money. 

[hawgbawb]

No doubt.  It is painful.

The oil, nat gas, energy, and gold stocks/funds have had some great fluxes in the last 5 months.  If you jumped in right and jumped out right, you made a lot of money. 

Good luck timing the market.

[HawgWild]

Production continues to outpace demand. How close are we to filling the storage capacity?

[PEtrader]

Good luck timing the market.

Really,  that's all you got?  Sucks when reality doesn't fit your agenda huh.   I am
Not greedy,  and I have already harvested 60 percent this year. 

[PEtrader]

Production continues to outpace demand. How close are we to filling the storage capacity?

There is talk of production being cut,  and it's driving price. 

[BigBrandonAllenFan]

Really,  that's all you got?  Sucks when reality doesn't fit your agenda huh.   I am
Not greedy,  and I have already harvested 60 percent this year.

When oil dipped below $30 a bbl, you had to get some of the action.  It wasn't going much lower, and a rebound was going to happen.  I bought natural gas at the same time oil dropped below $30.  It took a while but I'm back on the winning side of that now.

I still have literally 85% of my portfolio locked in Fed Reserve.  I ain't winning anything other than a minimal dividend, but I'm not losing a dime either.  The yet to come pre-election dip may or may not happen, but I'm going to wait and see for a while before I go back in full bore.

[BigBrandonAllenFan]

There is talk of production being cut,  and it's driving price.

In January, oil was forecast to end this year somewhere between $50 to $60 a bbl.  I'm thinking definitely towards the low end of that prediction, and we could end at no higher than $45 a bbl.  There is a lot of oil producing countries out there that can't shut down.  It is too much of the economy.  We may see a spike to $50 a bbl in mid-summer, but I really don't think it'll top that price for the remainder of the year.  It'll take a large global event of some sort to push it higher.

[PEtrader]

In January, oil was forecast to end this year somewhere between $50 to $60 a bbl.  I'm thinking definitely towards the low end of that prediction, and we could end at no higher than $45 a bbl.  There is a lot of oil producing countries out there that can't shut down.  It is too much of the economy.  We may see a spike to $50 a bbl in mid-summer, but I really don't think it'll top that price for the remainder of the year.  It'll take a large global event of some sort to push it higher.

I have taken some gains,  but I will dump the majority of my positions at 50.

I used a leverage etn for this trade,  and it really gives you a bang.   

I think 50 is likely by the summer.