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Paul Finebaum's Predictions on SEC Win Totals

Started by WilsonHog, June 14, 2017, 03:14:16 pm

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010HogFan

I see this year being like 2014. Finished 7-6 with the win over Texas in the bowl game.

bphi11ips

Quote from: hawgon on June 15, 2017, 07:40:34 am
Time of possession is the most useless stat in college football.  And it is especially so when your defense is as bad as ours has been. 

TOP is not a meaningless stat when it is part of the philosophy and gameplan.  Controlling the football is a very valid strategy.  But you're right, if your defense gives 5.9 yards per rush and 31 points per game it doesn't mean a lot.
Life is too short for grudges and feuds.

 

rhames

Quote from: bphi11ips on June 15, 2017, 08:27:27 am
TOP is not a meaningless stat when it is part of the philosophy and gameplan.  Controlling the football is a very valid strategy.  But you're right, if your defense gives 5.9 yards per rush and 31 points per game it doesn't mean a lot.


Correct it's an awesome stat when your defense can make stops and your offense can score touchdowns on the goal line


Not so much if those things aren't the case and the team is in a shoot out.
"I'm too drunk to taste this chicken"

"Can we get some waffles after we get some ass?" - Aunt Tiffany Freeman

Quote from: Hamdsome 1 on September 05, 2023, 06:43:26 pmSTHU. I get in more steps per day, at work, than you could possibly fathom.
The only down time my legs see is when seated in 1st Class.

12247

In general terms, I believe Finebaum is about 1 win per team too low.  As for our Head Coach, actually coaching the team as in teaching concepts, technique, positioning, conditioning, anything or for that matter getting onto the asses of the assistants who do these jobs, I hope he finally gets around to that this season.  I expect he will and I expect we will actually see a difference in the team for the better.  When the Boss gets down and dirty and invests his time in the basics, it may not be any better instruction than any assistant could do, but it makes one hell of a mental difference in the rank and file.  With what I believe will be a better approach by BB this season, I think this team may actually win 7 or maybe 8 regular season games and I don't believe we will suffer those sick losses of last year as in Aubbie, MO and Vir Tech.  And I believe we can give the HC credit for that little uptick if he does make the time investment.

RedyorNot

I'd hope being the #29th ranked team pre-season we'd win more than 6. PF is usually wrong, so that bodes well for us.

gchamblee

Quote from: ricepig on June 15, 2017, 06:54:46 am
I find it comical that you think we were getting anything less than his "best shot".  Now, neither you or I, or even Bielema, has been happy with the end results, but to think he was coaching any less, is looking for an excuse.

This is part of their smear campaign simply because they don't like the guy. He doesn't try very hard, he is aloof, his teams aren't tough, they don't practice as hard as everyone else, he will do really well this year because he needs a contract extension. It is trashy commentary but they are entertained by it so meh.

hawgon

Quote from: 12247 on June 15, 2017, 08:34:46 am
In general terms, I believe Finebaum is about 1 win per team too low.  As for our Head Coach, actually coaching the team as in teaching concepts, technique, positioning, conditioning, anything or for that matter getting onto the asses of the assistants who do these jobs, I hope he finally gets around to that this season.  I expect he will and I expect we will actually see a difference in the team for the better.  When the Boss gets down and dirty and invests his time in the basics, it may not be any better instruction than any assistant could do, but it makes one hell of a mental difference in the rank and file.  With what I believe will be a better approach by BB this season, I think this team may actually win 7 or maybe 8 regular season games and I don't believe we will suffer those sick losses of last year as in Aubbie, MO and Vir Tech.  And I believe we can give the HC credit for that little uptick if he does make the time investment.

It is a bad year for Bert to be coaching for his job.  I have never seen a man worth his salt, myself included, who was worth a darn after the birth of a new baby.  I even quit playing golf for a couple years after mine was born because I wanted to be around her.  I cut deer hunting short just to get home to be around her.  And I was out of the door of my office at the earliest opportunity just so I could see what she had done today.

If Bert works the kind of hours he needs to this year, the first six months of that child's life will be a blur to him.  He will essentially miss them.

Lots of guys re-evaluate things when they have a child and decide all that mess they have been chasing their whole lives up to that point are worthless.

redleg

Alabama is right where they should probably be, with 10.5 over/under. I'll say 11.
Auburn is overrated, 6-7 wins.
LSU is overrated. Orgeron is a great recruiter and motivator, but he sucks as a head coach. 9 wins with a team that should win more.
A&M is set for a new head coach. 6 wins.
Miss St might get to 6 wins.
Ole Miss is headed for the Toilet Bowl. 4 wins.
ARKANSAS is underrated this season, should finish at 9-3, 2nd in the West.

Georgia is underrated. Likely an 11 win team.
Florida could surprise, but UGA should beat them in the Cocktail Party. 8 wins.
Tenn will win just enough (8 plus a bowl win) for Jones to keep his job.
Kentucky will have a nice season. 7 wins.
SC will be better on both sides of the ball, but not enough to be a factor in the East. 6 wins.
Vandy won't go bowling. 4 wins.
Mizzou won't go bowling either. 3, maybe 4 wins.
If it ain't broke, fix it till it is.

LZH

Quote from: rhames on June 15, 2017, 07:55:03 am


Fair enough. I hope you're right!  I usually try to be optimistic but finding it hard to be right now.


Just like most if we beat TCU my excitement will go up.

If we lose to TCU in Fayetteville, then I can't see myself with any hope that he will ever get it done here. To me, the TCU game is that big.

870hogfan

Quote from: hawgon on June 15, 2017, 08:48:15 am
It is a bad year for Bret to be coaching for his job.  I have never seen a man worth his salt, myself included, who was worth a darn after the birth of a new baby.  I even quit playing golf for a couple years after mine was born because I wanted to be around her.  I cut deer hunting short just to get home to be around her.  And I was out of the door of my office at the earliest opportunity just so I could see what she had done today.

If Bret works the kind of hours he needs to this year, the first six months of that child's life will be a blur to him.  He will essentially miss them.

Lots of guys re-evaluate things when they have a child and decide all that mess they have been chasing their whole lives up to that point are worthless.




You wouldn't like the guy regardless what he did...

Al Boarland

Quote from: redleg on June 15, 2017, 08:58:44 am
Alabama is right where they should probably be, with 10.5 over/under. I'll say 11.
Auburn is overrated, 6-7 wins.
LSU is overrated. Orgeron is a great recruiter and motivator, but he sucks as a head coach. 9 wins with a team that should win more.
A&M is set for a new head coach. 6 wins.
Miss St might get to 6 wins.
Ole Miss is headed for the Toilet Bowl. 4 wins.
ARKANSAS is underrated this season, should finish at 9-3, 2nd in the West.

Georgia is underrated. Likely an 11 win team.
Florida could surprise, but UGA should beat them in the Cocktail Party. 8 wins.
Tenn will win just enough (8 plus a bowl win) for Jones to keep his job.
Kentucky will have a nice season. 7 wins.
SC will be better on both sides of the ball, but not enough to be a factor in the East. 6 wins.
Vandy won't go bowling. 4 wins.
Mizzou won't go bowling either. 3, maybe 4 wins.

Thanks, Paul. Everyone in the West sans the Hogs is overrated. Seems reasonable.

Hogwild

Quote from: WilsonHog on June 14, 2017, 03:14:16 pm
He updated them this afternoon.

Alabama - 10.5    Under
Auburn - 9           Push
LSU - 9               Push
Texas A&M - 7.5   Under
Arkansas - 6        Over
Ole Miss - 5.5       Over
Mississippi State - 5   Over

Georgia - 9   Over
Florida - 8     Push
Tennessee - 7.5   Over
Kentucky - 7      Under
Missouri - 6        Push
Vanderbilt - 6     Under
South Carolina - 5  Over


hogcard1964

Quote from: rhames on June 15, 2017, 07:29:06 am
This will be another 6 or 7 win season.

It's who we are.  Betcha 7 wins gets him another ridiculous buyout?

 

Wildhog

Quote from: hogcard1964 on June 15, 2017, 09:27:32 am
It's who we are.  Betcha 7 wins gets him another ridiculous buyout?

It will get him an extension, if only for recruiting.
Arkansas Razorbacks Football National Championships:
1909/1964/1965/1977

hawgon

Quote from: 870hogfan on June 15, 2017, 09:14:31 am



You wouldn't like the guy regardless what he did...

I don't believe that he has put in the consistent work or attention to detail to be truly successful at Arkansas.  I am even more skeptical that he will have the motivation to do so now.

nwahogfan1

Let's hope our new coaches are so good that we can sneak out 1 or 2 more wins. Maybe a A&M win and one more that Finebaum and other SEC guessers are missing.  Never know. Could happen but this time of year all SEC fans are guessing their team will do the same. SC fans are picking them to beat us and we need this win.  The same wih Ole Miss and so on.  All wishes right now and to close to call but boy I sure hope we can get to 8+ wins before the bowls.

RME

Quote from: Al Boarland on June 15, 2017, 09:17:26 am
Thanks, Paul. Everyone in the West sans the Hogs is overrated. Seems reasonable.

Didn't you know? Arkansas gets better every year while all other teams stay the same/are overrated. That's Hogville 101.

hogcard1964


hogcard1964

Quote from: WilsonHog on June 14, 2017, 03:14:16 pm
He updated them this afternoon.

Alabama - 10.5
Auburn - 9
LSU - 9
Texas A&M - 7.5
Arkansas - 6
Ole Miss - 5.5
Mississippi State - 5

Georgia - 9
Florida - 8
Tennessee - 7.5
Kentucky - 7
Missouri - 6
Vanderbilt - 6
South Carolina - 5

If those numbers bear out, Texas A&M and Tennessee will be looking for new head coaches come Thanksgiving weekend.

If they both have better records than Arkansas, they'll start new coaching searches, and we won't?

GuvHog

Quote from: LZH on June 15, 2017, 09:11:28 am
If we lose to TCU in Fayetteville, then I can't see myself with any hope that he will ever get it done here. To me, the TCU game is that big.

TCU is picked by most pundits to go no better than 8-4 overall and they play in the weak Big 12 Conference. That tells all anyone needs to know about the Horned Frogs chances of winning in Fayetteville. The word is "slim".
Bleeding Razorback Red Since Birth!!!

RME

Quote from: LZH on June 15, 2017, 09:11:28 am
If we lose to TCU in Fayetteville, then I can't see myself with any hope that he will ever get it done here. To me, the TCU game is that big.

For some reason, I've got an uneasy feeling (not a peaceful, easy one) that the TCU game has all the makings of our home and home with Texas Tech.

I don't know why, but definitely can't overlook them like so many on here seem to be.

gchamblee

Quote from: RyanMallettsEgo on June 15, 2017, 12:34:31 pm
For some reason, I've got an uneasy feeling (not a peaceful, easy one) that the TCU game has all the makings of our home and home with Texas Tech.

I don't know why, but definitely can't overlook them like so many on here seem to be.

Tech came here with a 1st round QB while we had the worst defense we have had in forever. I don't think TCU has a 1st rounder at QB and I think our defense will be better than last years. I'm not uneasy about it at all.

gchamblee

Quote from: hogcard1964 on June 15, 2017, 12:05:37 pm
If they both have better records than Arkansas, they'll start new coaching searches, and we won't?

Yes, there is no number that all schools must meet or begin searching for a new coach. Our number is different which is influenced by many factors that are unique to us I would imagine. You are looking for any reason at all to fire him, but those in charge are not. Reality will probably never align with your wishes as long as CBB is our coach.

hogcard1964

Quote from: RyanMallettsEgo on June 15, 2017, 12:34:31 pm
For some reason, I've got an uneasy feeling (not a peaceful, easy one) that the TCU game has all the makings of our home and home with Texas Tech.

I don't know why, but definitely can't overlook them like so many on here seem to be.

No, that won't be a very close or competitive game.  We'll win that one big.

 

hogcard1964

Quote from: gchamblee on June 15, 2017, 12:39:00 pm
Yes, there is no number that all schools must meet or begin searching for a new coach. Our number is different which is influenced by many factors that are unique to us I would imagine. You are looking for any reason at all to fire him, but those in charge are not. Reality will probably never align with your wishes as long as CBB is our coach.

+1000

He's not going anywhere.

...as long as he wishes to stay here.

gchamblee

Quote from: hogcard1964 on June 15, 2017, 12:43:12 pm
+1000

He's not going anywhere.

...as long as he wishes to stay here.

Quit representing my posts like I have agreed with you, because I haven't.

RME

Quote from: gchamblee on June 15, 2017, 12:37:09 pm
Tech came here with a 1st round QB while we had the worst defense we have had in forever. I don't think TCU has a 1st rounder at QB and I think our defense will be better than last years. I'm not uneasy about it at all.

It's a Bielema team in the second week of the season. I'll choose to remain a little wary until the clock hits zero.

hogcard1964

Quote from: gchamblee on June 15, 2017, 12:45:12 pm
Quit representing my posts like I have agreed with you, because I haven't.

We don't agree that he's going to remain our head coach for the foreseeable future?

gchamblee

Quote from: hogcard1964 on June 15, 2017, 01:04:01 pm
We don't agree that he's going to remain our head coach for the foreseeable future?

You think he won't be fired because our administration has no desire to win. I do not agree with that and am serious about my opinion never being wrongly thought to be in agreement with yours.

rhames

Quote from: RyanMallettsEgo on June 15, 2017, 12:52:08 pm
It's a Bielema team in the second week of the season. I'll choose to remain a little wary until the clock hits zero.


I'm with you.  TCU will be tough. I do not think we win.
"I'm too drunk to taste this chicken"

"Can we get some waffles after we get some ass?" - Aunt Tiffany Freeman

Quote from: Hamdsome 1 on September 05, 2023, 06:43:26 pmSTHU. I get in more steps per day, at work, than you could possibly fathom.
The only down time my legs see is when seated in 1st Class.

hogcard1964

Quote from: gchamblee on June 15, 2017, 01:30:37 pm
You think he won't be fired because our administration has no desire to win. I do not agree with that and am serious about my opinion never being wrongly thought to be in agreement with yours.

They have a desire to win.  Just not at the desired level.

They're "content".

Calling All Hogs

If we only win 6 games, I predict Jeff Long will take clear and decisive action and go from saying CBB is ahead of schedule to saying he is right on schedule.

hogcard1964

Quote from: Calling All Hogs on June 15, 2017, 02:18:18 pm
If we only win 6 games, I predict Jeff Long will take clear and decisive action and go from saying CBB is ahead of schedule to saying he is right on schedule.

"grades are good", "stadium expansion", "integrity"...


gchamblee

Quote from: Calling All Hogs on June 15, 2017, 02:18:18 pm
If we only win 6 games, I predict Jeff Long will take clear and decisive action and go from saying CBB is ahead of schedule to saying he is right on schedule.

I lol'd

jkstock04

Quote from: ricepig on June 15, 2017, 06:54:46 am
I find it comical that you think we were getting anything less than his "best shot".  Now, neither you or I, or even Bielema, has been happy with the end results, but to think he was coaching any less, is looking for an excuse.
Last year was his "best shot?" lol I hope not. Either you jest or there is some mis-communication here. I would bet you a million there are things he would do differently if he had it to do over. 

In short, I'm simply saying it's POSSIBLE we see a renewed vigor this year due to what all happened last season, especially the way it ended. Honeymoon period and dreams of how awesome things were at Wisconsin are over with.
Thanks for the F Shack. 

Love,

Dirty Mike and the Boys

BallHog1

Chamblee and HogCard are in "lock step" on this discussion.

gchamblee

Quote from: hogcard1964 on June 15, 2017, 02:08:07 pm
They have a desire to win.  Just not at the desired level.

They're "content".

Like I said, it is important to me that my opinion never be confused to be in agreement with yours.

gchamblee

Quote from: BallHog1 on June 15, 2017, 02:53:40 pm
Chamblee and HogCard are in "lock step" on this discussion.

I hope your children are born with red hair and a lazy eye.

factchecker

WORK FOR IT
PLAN ON IT
EARN IT
OMAHOGS

hogcard1964


AFWarrior83

CBB had a lot of success at Wisconsin, but the fans can't continue waiting for him to find success at Arkansas.  My concern is that if Bielema does continue being mediocre, and we fire him, that we end up hiring someone like Jim Grobe.  I understand that CBB inherited a mess, but the players on campus now are all his recruits.  We should be able to win 10 games every couple of years with 6 wins being during down years, not our ceiling.
Hogville member since 2005.

ricepig

Quote from: jkstock04 on June 15, 2017, 02:53:32 pm
Last year was his "best shot?" lol I hope not. Either you jest or there is some mis-communication here. I would bet you a million there are things he would do differently if he had it to do over. 

In short, I'm simply saying it's POSSIBLE we see a renewed vigor this year due to what all happened last season, especially the way it ended. Honeymoon period and dreams of how awesome things were at Wisconsin are over with.

I think he's given his best shot every year. These guys are driven to win, they didn't achieve this level by taking years off. I suspect there are decisions every coach makes during the season that he wishes he could do over, no matter what their record is.

Hogwild

Quote from: GuvHog on June 15, 2017, 12:28:58 pm
TCU is picked by most pundits to go no better than 8-4 overall and they play in the weak Big 12 Conference. That tells all anyone needs to know about the Horned Frogs chances of winning in Fayetteville. The word is "slim".

I hope you are right, but TCU is ranked #18 in ESPN Football Power Index, we are at #36.  Vegas currently has them a touchdown favorite over us.

Wildhog

Wisconsin's worst season since CBB left was 9 wins.  And they're on their second coach since then.
Arkansas Razorbacks Football National Championships:
1909/1964/1965/1977

ricepig

Quote from: Wildhog on June 15, 2017, 04:26:07 pm
Wisconsin's worst season since CBB left was 9 wins.  And they're on their second coach since then.


Good program.

gchamblee

Quote from: Wildhog on June 15, 2017, 04:26:07 pm
Wisconsin's worst season since CBB left was 9 wins.  And they're on their second coach since then.

CBB left them in good shape, and they also have a good coach. It doesn't surprise me that they have had good seasons, but it did surprise me that LSU screwed up that game against them last year.

GuvHog

Quote from: Hogwild on June 15, 2017, 04:24:32 pm
I hope you are right, but TCU is ranked #18 in ESPN Football Power Index, we are at #36.  Vegas currently has them a touchdown favorite over us.

All the Vegas line means is more people are laying money on TCU than Arkansas.
Bleeding Razorback Red Since Birth!!!

GuvHog

Quote from: ricepig on June 15, 2017, 03:29:40 pm
I think he's given his best shot every year. These guys are driven to win, they didn't achieve this level by taking years off. I suspect there are decisions every coach makes during the season that he wishes he could do over, no matter what their record is.

Once Bielema accepts the fact that what works in the Big 10 doesn't work in the SEC, the Hogs will start to win. When Saban went from Michigan State to LSU, he realized that quickly and altered his scheme.
Bleeding Razorback Red Since Birth!!!

razorsharptusk

Quote from: MuskogeeHogFan on June 14, 2017, 06:53:34 pm
Predicting 6 wins for Arkansas isn't as a result of any in-depth analysis on the part of Finebaum. Everyone is projecting 6 to 7 wins for us. He's just hopping on the bandwagon. I believe we will win more than 7 this year in the regular season. Might win 8-9 in the regular season if everything goes just right. Bielema needs to win 9 if he hopes to stick around. The pressure is on.

I agree with your comments Muskogee but I am curious as to what you mean by "things going just right" to get to 8 or 9 wins and what you are basing this on?  What would you consider to be the biggest issue staring Coach B. in the face that you think this year he has corrected within the program?  What is the biggest issue of why he is struggling to find consistency here at Arkansas to win. I here a lot of ideas:  "It's the SEC vs. the Big 10 and he can't coach in it", "Assistant coaches turnover", "Trying to be Alabama", "Recruiting" etc. etc.   What many thought was a strong hire when he was hired, even though we knew he inherited a program in very bad shape and it would take a little time to get it on the right track, are now losing patience with him.  Myself included.   It seem's like our program has hit a ceiling under Coach B.  Like the best we will ever be going forward under Coach B. is wondering if we will win 6 to 8 games a year.

The other concern I have is within the program itself and the coaches.  Do you chalk up the tale of two halves, the last two ballgames played last year to coaching or to players quitting?  The same players that put up the points early, were in the game late.  It's the inward workings of the program that make me more concerned with Coach B.  Are the coaches getting along or are the players picking up on some issues? I know these answers we can't know but its those type of Jekyll and Hyde performances that make you scratch your head some.  A game every now and then, I get it, back to back....
GO HOGS!!

Wildhog

Quote from: gchamblee on June 15, 2017, 04:40:48 pm
CBB left them in good shape, and they also have a good coach. It doesn't surprise me that they have had good seasons, but it did surprise me that LSU screwed up that game against them last year.

I mean, the program was in good shape when CBB took over for Alvarez.  He didn't crash it or anything, but as of now he's not looking any more impressive than Gary Andersen or Paul Chryst.
Arkansas Razorbacks Football National Championships:
1909/1964/1965/1977