SEC Realignment

[NaturalStateReb]

Someone is going to land Baylor. It won't be the Pac 12 because they don't care to add a school with a religious affiliation. Of course they may maintain the same bias with the potential addition of TCU. So maybe that changes things? Would the Pac 12 (on the basis of that religious bias) then go for an eastern addition of Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech and Kansas? Kansas would only be agreed upon because of regional relevance to an eastern division, their academics and their basketball program and the Pac 12 would love to add the basketball programs of Oklahoma and Kansas.

So if that happens could we see both Baylor and TCU coming to the SEC? Neither are really a fit for the Big Ten. If Texas chose to join the ACC could we see the ACC making a move for one of those two schools as well? I think not simply because both schools are so far west and for that matter, the same goes for Texas, who I see going Independent.

But do we really want to add two more schools from Texas? It's possible, but likely? I could see one, but two?  I just don't see that happening.

If the Big 12 implodes I think the SEC goes for Baylor and Kansas to fill out the west (should Oklahoma and Oklahoma State go west together to the Pac 12), moving Alabama and Auburn to the East. Of course this leaves TCU on the bubble while K-State and Iowa State would probably be absorbed into the Big Ten.

Eventually the Big 12 will either expand (but who do they add?) or dissolve. If they intend to remain they had better start adding schools in the east like Cincinatti and Memphis that are closer to their eastern member, W. Virginia and who bring more than football to the table. Otherwise, I think the clock is ticking on the sustainability of the Big 12 and the next major move in expansion among the other P-5 conferences. JMO

This all assumes that the ACC stays together and there is no hope of adding any team from Virginia or North Carolina:

I think if the Big 12 implodes, the SEC is going to go after OU and somebody else--Kansas or West Virginia would be the logical gets. 

However, I think if the Big 12 implodes, it's because OU leaves first, and I don't think we're their first pick for a destination.  I think OU would rather have either the Big 10 or the PAC.  If it's the PAC, that probably means some sort of Texoma grouping.  If it's the Big 10, I think that means OU/KU.  If OU is off the table (and I don't think Texas  is on the table for the SEC, ever, under any circumstances), then I think the SEC goes for Oklahoma State and one of:  West Virginia, TCU, Baylor, Kansas State.

WVU is a name program that's got a solid fanbase and is good in two sports.  The downside is the footprint is small and the academics are bad.

TCU and Baylor share much in common, but I give TCU the edge here:  good academics, good in at least two big sports, both located in a state where we already have a bigger school.  I think TCU has the advantage because it's located in the metroplex, and Baylor is down the street from A&M, is scandal-prone, and threatens too much litigation.

K-State is good in one sports, sometimes two.  It's a second school in a small population state, but it's got decent football and is geographically proximate to Missouri, Arkansas, and a potential OSU addition.  Definitely a consolation prize.

This all depends on whether the extended footprints and additional content can support the additions.  I don't know if they can or not.

[NaturalStateReb]

I agree. I used to think that OU wanted the SEC West and would drag OSU along and the SEC would agree. After further consideration and the emergence of the CFP system, I think OU goes West and I think that if the Big 12 break up occurs, the Pac 12 would happily accept a grouping of OU, Okla State, TCU and yes, even Texas Tech. Texas won't go (though it would be a good move for them) because I believe that they think they can garner the same deal that Notre Dame has by having complete control over their schedule and earn their way (eventually) into the CFP's.

The group of 4 I listed above helps eliminate Colorado as a most eastern and somewhat removed part of the Pac 12 and creates a 8 team division in the East that would include the Arizona schools and Utah. OU would be for it because it would bolster western recruiting and most years, the Division championship would be decided among Oklahoma, TCU and Utah. It wouldn't be like playing within the Bullet Blender that is the SEC West and then having to face the East division champ in the SECCG.

Ultimately I could see the SEC West scooping up Baylor (good football, good basketball, higher academics) and Kansas (Vanderbilt type football, great basketball and great academics). But hey, JMO. And opinions change as times change as well.

I think in that scenario Texas would have to go somewhere.  It's hard to imagine Texas letting all of those schools walk to the PAC without them, but if that happened, the Big 12 would fall apart.  Texas would need somewhere to house their Olympic sports, at the least.  I'm assuming that in that kind of scenario, you're saying Texas would make a deal with the ACC a la Notre Dame.

[Inhogswetrust]

This all assumes that the ACC stays together and there is no hope of adding any team from Virginia or North Carolina:

I think if the Big 12 implodes, the SEC is going to go after OU and somebody else--Kansas or West Virginia would be the logical gets. 

However, I think if the Big 12 implodes, it's because OU leaves first, and I don't think we're their first pick for a destination.  I think OU would rather have either the Big 10 or the PAC.  If it's the PAC, that probably means some sort of Texoma grouping.  If it's the Big 10, I think that means OU/KU.  If OU is off the table (and I don't think Texas  is on the table for the SEC, ever, under any circumstances), then I think the SEC goes for Oklahoma State and one of:  West Virginia, TCU, Baylor, Kansas State.

WVU is a name program that's got a solid fanbase and is good in two sports.  The downside is the footprint is small and the academics are bad.

TCU and Baylor share much in common, but I give TCU the edge here:  good academics, good in at least two big sports, both located in a state where we already have a bigger school.  I think TCU has the advantage because it's located in the metroplex, and Baylor is down the street from A&M, is scandal-prone, and threatens too much litigation.

K-State is good in one sports, sometimes two.  It's a second school in a small population state, but it's got decent football and is geographically proximate to Missouri, Arkansas, and a potential OSU addition.  Definitely a consolation prize.

This all depends on whether the extended footprints and additional content can support the additions.  I don't know if they can or not.

You have touched on an important part and that is between the Little 12 or ACC, which is more stable? I'd bet the ACC is at this point. Of course things can always change. Also the SEC might not have to be that agent of change. I 'd also bet that it would not be. The PAC12 and Big10 would probably play the buster role. 

[NaturalStateReb]

You have touched on an important part and that is between the Little 12 or ACC, which is more stable? I'd bet the ACC is at this point. Of course things can always change. Also the SEC might not have to be that agent of change. I 'd also bet that it would not be. The PAC12 and Big10 would probably play the buster role. 

I'd agree with that.  I don't think the SEC is necessarily looking to expand, but it won't pass up a good thing, either. 

I also think the ACC is the more stable of the two--its core programs like being there, and with 15 teams + ND in football, it's better poised to weather some changes around the edges.  When Maryland left the ACC, it didn't trigger a race to the exits.  That'd also be true of Georgia Tech, an oft-mentioned potential Big 10 target.

I think as long as the ACC can keep in sight, financially, with the Big 10 and the SEC, it's in pretty good shape.

[redleg]

I want to see the SEC expand once more to 16 teams, be it OU, Ok St, NC St, UNC, Va Tech, etc.
Then, I want the SEC to do something for the first time ever in college football...again!...break up into four divisions and actually have semi-finals AND a conference title game!
West Division = Arkansas, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, LSU
South Division = Ole Miss, Miss St, Alabama, Auburn
East Division = Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina
North Division = Missouri, Tennessee, Vandy, Kentucky
Play 3 divison opponents, and another division every two years, plus have two designated yearly opponents that rotate.
Example: Arkansas would play OU, A&M, and LSU every year...in 2016 and 2017 they play the South Division...Arkansas' permanent cross-division opponent would be Missouri, and their secondary cross-division opponent would be Ole Miss, meaning that when the Hogs play the North Div they would pick up Ole Miss as their other cross-division team. It's actually pretty simple.
:razorback:

[GuvHog]

This all assumes that the ACC stays together and there is no hope of adding any team from Virginia or North Carolina:

I think if the Big 12 implodes, the SEC is going to go after OU and somebody else--Kansas or West Virginia would be the logical gets. 

However, I think if the Big 12 implodes, it's because OU leaves first, and I don't think we're their first pick for a destination.  I think OU would rather have either the Big 10 or the PAC.  If it's the PAC, that probably means some sort of Texoma grouping.  If it's the Big 10, I think that means OU/KU.  If OU is off the table (and I don't think Texas  is on the table for the SEC, ever, under any circumstances), then I think the SEC goes for Oklahoma State and one of:  West Virginia, TCU, Baylor, Kansas State.

WVU is a name program that's got a solid fanbase and is good in two sports.  The downside is the footprint is small and the academics are bad.

TCU and Baylor share much in common, but I give TCU the edge here:  good academics, good in at least two big sports, both located in a state where we already have a bigger school.  I think TCU has the advantage because it's located in the metroplex, and Baylor is down the street from A&M, is scandal-prone, and threatens too much litigation.

K-State is good in one sports, sometimes two.  It's a second school in a small population state, but it's got decent football and is geographically proximate to Missouri, Arkansas, and a potential OSU addition.  Definitely a consolation prize.

This all depends on whether the extended footprints and additional content can support the additions.  I don't know if they can or not.

I still say when it's all said and done, the SEC will add Oklahoma and Oklahoma State to the West, Move Bama and Auburn to the East, then Move Missouri to the West. This is how it would look:

WESTERN DIVISION

Arkansas
Miss State
Ole Miss
LSU
Texas A&M
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Missouri

EASTERN DIVISION

Alabama
Auburn
Florida
Georgia
Kentucky
South Carolina
Tennessee
Vanderbilt

Just my opinion...

[MuskogeeHogFan]

This all assumes that the ACC stays together and there is no hope of adding any team from Virginia or North Carolina:

I think if the Big 12 implodes, the SEC is going to go after OU and somebody else--Kansas or West Virginia would be the logical gets. 

However, I think if the Big 12 implodes, it's because OU leaves first, and I don't think we're their first pick for a destination.  I think OU would rather have either the Big 10 or the PAC.  If it's the PAC, that probably means some sort of Texoma grouping.  If it's the Big 10, I think that means OU/KU.  If OU is off the table (and I don't think Texas  is on the table for the SEC, ever, under any circumstances), then I think the SEC goes for Oklahoma State and one of:  West Virginia, TCU, Baylor, Kansas State.

WVU is a name program that's got a solid fanbase and is good in two sports.  The downside is the footprint is small and the academics are bad.

TCU and Baylor share much in common, but I give TCU the edge here:  good academics, good in at least two big sports, both located in a state where we already have a bigger school.  I think TCU has the advantage because it's located in the metroplex, and Baylor is down the street from A&M, is scandal-prone, and threatens too much litigation.

K-State is good in one sports, sometimes two.  It's a second school in a small population state, but it's got decent football and is geographically proximate to Missouri, Arkansas, and a potential OSU addition.  Definitely a consolation prize.

This all depends on whether the extended footprints and additional content can support the additions.  I don't know if they can or not.

Long term I agree that Oklahoma has more to gain by going to the Pac 12 than the SEC or the Big Ten. Despite the Big 12's desperate move to add W. Virginia, I can't see the ACC making a run at Oklahoma because they have no one else to match them with from a regional standpoint and I think that regional relevance still makes sense (among other things) when looking at these potential expansions.

Oklahoma and Oklahoma State are a matched pair, one will not leave the other. State politics in that regard are too strong and whether the Oklahoma State folks like it or not, they are going where Oklahoma goes because Oklahoma can broker the deal, Oklahoma State can't and won't. In fact, Oklahoma is the lynchpin for an expanding eastern division of the Pac 12 for several schools...OU, OSU, Texas Tech and one of TCU or Kansas.

The one thing that I will say is that I believe that if the Big 12 implodes the conference will do everything it can to insure that everyone can find a home in another P-5 conference. They may come up one team short however because someone is likely going to be left without a chair when the music stops. K-State's academics can't match in-state brother Kansas now Iowa State. The snooty Pac 12 isn't going to take Kansas State (I don't think) though they might welcome Texas Tech as a part of OU, OSU and TCU.

Oddly enough, while any conference would love to add Oklahoma, it may wind up being Kansas who has as good of options as anyone.

I think the SEC would enjoy adding Baylor-Kansas or TCU-Kansas.

The Big Ten would probably be willing to add two of three of Kansas, K-State and Iowa State as well. K-State being the weak sister here from an academics standpoint.

The Pac 12 would probably be good with adding OU, OSU, Kansas and Texas Tech to fill out an eastern division.

It's odd that lowly Kansas with only a big time basketball tradition to its name, might have so many options compared to everyone else, but one thing that it would bring in football is the re-start of a pretty fiery rivalry game between Kansas and Missouri each year. No need to fabricate a rivalry here (The Border Rivalry...or whatever our game with Mizzou is supposed to be called), an actual huge rivalry and that has gone by the wayside with Missouri's move to the SEC, still remains. The embers of that fire aren't dead yet.

Adding Baylor to the SEC brings quality academics and medical research for the academians, a well-heeled and influential Alumni base, really good football and decent basketball at times. You can even land a team charter in Waco.

Who knows how all of this is going to play out but Oklahoma is pushing for expansion to assure the future of the conference, something that their Commish seems to want to ignore. I'm not sure who he thinks that he works for but he had better get shakin or he may lose teams (and the conference as a whole) or be looking for another job.

[GuvHog]

Long term I agree that Oklahoma has more to gain by going to the Pac 12 than the SEC or the Big Ten. Despite the Big 12's desperate move to add W. Virginia, I can't see the ACC making a run at Oklahoma because they have no one else to match them with from a regional standpoint and I think that regional relevance still makes sense (among other things) when looking at these potential expansions.

Oklahoma and Oklahoma State are a matched pair, one will not leave the other. State politics in that regard are too strong and whether the Oklahoma State folks like it or not, they are going where Oklahoma goes because Oklahoma can broker the deal, Oklahoma State can't and won't. In fact, Oklahoma is the lynchpin for an expanding eastern division of the Pac 12 for several schools...OU, OSU, Texas Tech and one of TCU or Kansas.

The one thing that I will say is that I believe that if the Big 12 implodes the conference will do everything it can to insure that everyone can find a home in another P-5 conference. They may come up one team short however because someone is likely going to be left without a chair when the music stops. K-State's academics can't match in-state brother Kansas now Iowa State. The snooty Pac 12 isn't going to take Kansas State (I don't think) though they might welcome Texas Tech as a part of OU, OSU and TCU.

Oddly enough, while any conference would love to add Oklahoma, it may wind up being Kansas who has as good of options as anyone.

I think the SEC would enjoy adding Baylor-Kansas or TCU-Kansas.

The Big Ten would probably be willing to add two of three of Kansas, K-State and Iowa State as well. K-State being the weak sister here from an academics standpoint.

The Pac 12 would probably be good with adding OU, OSU, Kansas and Texas Tech to fill out an eastern division.

It's odd that lowly Kansas with only a big time basketball tradition to its name, might have so many options compared to everyone else, but one thing that it would bring in football is the re-start of a pretty fiery rivalry game between Kansas and Missouri each year. No need to fabricate a rivalry here (The Border Rivalry...or whatever our game with Mizzou is supposed to be called), an actual huge rivalry and that has gone by the wayside with Missouri's move to the SEC, still remains. The embers of that fire aren't dead yet.

Adding Baylor to the SEC brings quality academics and medical research for the academians, a well-heeled and influential Alumni base, really good football and decent basketball at times. You can even land a team charter in Waco.

Who knows how all of this is going to play out but Oklahoma is pushing for expansion to assure the future of the conference, something that their Commish seems to want to ignore. I'm not sure who he thinks that he works for but he had better get shakin or he may lose teams (and the conference as a whole) or be looking for another job.

I agree that OU and OSU are a package deal but what if OSU flatly refuses to join the Pac 12 and insists on fighting to keep OU from going?? What are OU's options then???

[Biggus Piggus]

Division I should be reduced to 80 football teams.

These should be divided into 8, 10-team conferences.

Everybody plays a round robin + 2 non-conference games.

Eight conference champions play in the first round of the playoffs.

Three-round playoffs.

Let others play bowl games, if you must. But this way we get seven high-interest playoff games every year + a larger number of meaningful games during the regular season.

Note: Arkansas ranks 41st in 10-year winning % and 43rd in 25-year winning %.

Arkansas State (91st over 25 years, 53rd over 10 years) would be iffy.

[Hogwild]

I agree that OU and OSU are a package deal but what if OSU flatly refuses to join the Pac 12 and insists on fighting to keep OU from going?? What are OU's options then???

It is more likely the other way around. The Pac12 would reject OK St, if the cowboys get an invite they would be there in a heartbeat.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

I agree that OU and OSU are a package deal but what if OSU flatly refuses to join the Pac 12 and insists on fighting to keep OU from going?? What are OU's options then???

Oklahoma State will obediently (perhaps not publicly though) go where OU goes because OU carries the big stick in terms of negotiating a deal, unlike Oklahoma State. Go with OU or get left behind to try to broker your own deal? With who? The SEC, Pac 12 or Big Ten would snap up a chance to bring OU into their fold, OSU not so much. State politics will require Oklahoma to negotiate a deal that would include Okla State or Oklahoma will not take the deal. Oklahoma could join another conference in a heartbeat without Okla State in tow, but that may be why they haven't already left.

[Hawghiggs]

Oklahoma State will obediently (perhaps not publicly though) go where OU goes because OU carries the big stick in terms of negotiating a deal, unlike Oklahoma State. Go with OU or get left behind to try to broker your own deal? With who? The SEC, Pac 12 or Big Ten would snap up a chance to bring OU into their fold, OSU not so much. State politics will require Oklahoma to negotiate a deal that would include Okla State or Oklahoma will not take the deal. Oklahoma could join another conference in a heartbeat without Okla State in tow, but that may be why they haven't already left.

I agree with what you have posted. But in a way. That's exactly why the SEC should extend and offer to Oklahoma state. It would force OUs hand.  OU could easily get into either the Big 10 or Pac 12. But they can't let OSU come to the SEC. Oklahoma state and a  Baylor or TCU really hurts OU's recruiting and control.

[Murr]

http://www.sportsbusinessdaily.com/Daily/Closing-Bell/2016/04/19/Big-Ten.aspx

Fox is close to signing a deal that gives it half of the Big Ten's available media rights package, according to several sources. Deal terms still are flexible – both in terms of money and rights. However, the two sides have agreed on basic terms that will give Fox the rights to around 25 football games and 50 basketball games that it will carry on both the broadcast channel and FS1 starting in the fall of '17. The deal runs six years and could cost Fox as much as $250M per year, depending on the amount of rights the Big Ten conference puts in its second package.

So basically the B1G is going to try and start a bidding war on the remaining half of the TV deal.  The B1G split in half their top 50 football games and top 100 basketball games and split their football CCG.  Well that's new.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/writer/dennis-dodd/25560400/why-the-big-tens-reported-short-new-tv-deal-with-fox-makes-sense

The Big Ten was the last major conference to renegotiate its rights in the current cycle. Sources were split on whether the Big Ten would break the bank because of the value of its 14-school assets or merely earn a modest increase.

SBJ reported that Fox will pay as much as $250 million per year for the rights to approximately 25 football games and 50 basketball games.

Signing only a six-year deal, "probably means [the Big Ten] didn't get the money they wanted," one source said.

Now, if realignment is going to come from the B1G expansion, they have been looking southeast for expansion with rumors of them going after UVA, UNC, GT, Vanderbilt and maybe Duke and FSU.

[Hogwild]

The SEC, Pac 12 or Big Ten would snap up a chance to bring OU into their fold, OSU not so much. State politics will require Oklahoma to negotiate a deal that would include Okla State or Oklahoma will not take the deal. Oklahoma could join another conference in a heartbeat without Okla State in tow, but that may be why they haven't already left.

You hit the nail on the head politics tying OU to OK State is the only reason the Sooners haven't left yet, no one wants two schools from Oklahoma. However under current by-laws OU is not eligible to join the Big Ten, they aren't an AAU member.