Back issues of DRF PDFs.

[Russ22]

Does anyone have same back issues of the daily racing form in electronic (pdf) format. I am new to horse racing, but I have a very mathematical bent. I would like to analyze the Beyer speed numbers for a horse as a sample of the horse's ability. Just like people, a horse will have a good day or a bad day, but given enough samples, one could get an accurate view of its ability.

Not trying to make money on the races, trying to understand it more.

[HogFanInBryant]

Does anyone have same back issues of the daily racing form in electronic (pdf) format. I am new to horse racing, but I have a very mathematical bent. I would like to analyze the Beyer speed numbers for a horse as a sample of the horse's ability. Just like people, a horse will have a good day or a bad day, but given enough samples, one could get an accurate view of its ability.

Not trying to make money on the races, trying to understand it more.

You might consider emailing somebody at DRF and asking them about this.  No matter what you do, throw out all research coming from a race on any synthetic track.  The only time this is useful is when you are trying to figure out if a horse will like the first time on turf or not in my opinion.

[mckinneyhog5]

Does anyone have same back issues of the daily racing form in electronic (pdf) format. I am new to horse racing, but I have a very mathematical bent. I would like to analyze the Beyer speed numbers for a horse as a sample of the horse's ability. Just like people, a horse will have a good day or a bad day, but given enough samples, one could get an accurate view of its ability.

Not trying to make money on the races, trying to understand it more.

Welcome to the rabbit hole...

[Russ22]

Yeah. I just finished Beyer on Speed. As you guys know, he describes the uses ( and misuses) of his number. I think the "bounce" and XO... patterns are likely related to a random sample of a horses ability along with how difficult the trip was rather than actual patterns.

I still wonder if there is overcaution in bringing horses back early. You would think with all the $ involved, the horse get the top nutrition & vet care. It is hard for to imagine that running a mile 2 weeks apart would cause undue stress. The Standardbred harness racers run every week (1 mile), sometimes twice a week.

[HogFanInBryant]

Yeah. I just finished Beyer on Speed. As you guys know, he describes the uses ( and misuses) of his number. I think the "bounce" and XO... patterns are likely related to a random sample of a horses ability along with how difficult the trip was rather than actual patterns.

I still wonder if there is overcaution in bringing horses back early. You would think with all the $ involved, the horse get the top nutrition & vet care. It is hard for to imagine that running a mile 2 weeks apart would cause undue stress. The Standardbred harness racers run every week (1 mile), sometimes twice a week.

For some reason they have started breeding for more early speed rather than stamina.  The horse has changed over the years...although the nutrition, etc has gotten better.  Most of them are not made like they used to be and racing too often usually takes a toll on the area around their back hips.  When I was younger I used to hang out with some old car wholesalers at the track...they would always say that a horse "looked sore in the post parade" and draw a line through them.  I wish I knew what is was that they would notice so I could kinda look for it myself these days.  Granted, that was 20 years ago when they did run them every week and a half or so...especially at LA Downs during the time Chris Kotulak was the announcer...am I dating myself a bit to when I first started following racing lol?

[HawgWild]

Back in the 1980's I'd cut out the charts for each race day from the paper and then watch a taped replay of the races from the night before. I'd add my notes to the chart, assign speed figures for each horse using par times I'd established from the previous season. (This was before the Racing Form had Beyers for each track) It was a lot of work but it gave me an edge at the window. Then, along came the computer and all my work was for naught.

Russ22, what exactly is your hypothesis? I'm not sure what you're trying to prove and/or if you'd be leaving out some important variables in your study.

[Russ22]

Not sure what I am trying to prove. It seems that there is some idea out there (based on thorographs) that horses have bounces (or bad runs) after good ones. I would suggest it is a regression to the mean rather than a good race taking steam out of the next race.

This is similar, in my view, to the sophomore slump that you see after a particularly good rookie season. That is, a player performed above his mean performance in the first year and the second year is either at or below his mean. This seems more plausible to me than what I have read.

As I mentioned, I am a green newbie on this stuff, so let me know if this has already been examined.

[HawgWild]

It's been years since I did this level of analysis using Excel and SPSS. Can you now export data from a pdf file into a statistical program? I'm sure there are several sources out there that have this data it's just finding the ones that will let you have access to it.

I'm thinking that you'd have bet a lot of races to benefit from this angle, if, as you suspect, it proves out. Kelso Sturgeon, in handicapping horses at the lowest claiming levels, used to throw out any horse that won their last race. His thinking was that if the horse was that good he'd be racing at a higher level. 

[mckinneyhog5]

Not sure what I am trying to prove. It seems that there is some idea out there (based on thorographs) that horses have bounces (or bad runs) after good ones. I would suggest it is a regression to the mean rather than a good race taking steam out of the next race.

This is similar, in my view, to the sophomore slump that you see after a particularly good rookie season. That is, a player performed above his mean performance in the first year and the second year is either at or below his mean. This seems more plausible to me than what I have read.

As I mentioned, I am a green newbie on this stuff, so let me know if this has already been examined.

There is a site called predict-a-form who's goal is to do exactly what you're proposing.  However, it does cost money but you can see examples.

As far as soundness of horses go, I think the constant inbreeding has caused some of it.

[Russ22]

Thanks for all the replies. I am trying to understand this stuff. My gut tells me that most math analysis is going to fail because we are dealing with large unpredictable animals.

I look forward to these discussions.

[husker71]

I am like Hawgwild   my small apartment had lots of DRFs in the 1980s   I never threw them away .  I worked the night audit at the Hollywood Roosevelt and that took us 3 hours at the most.  I would get off my bus and a block away was a 24 hour newstand and every night I would buy one and study it at work.  If I did not go to the track I would watch the replays on channel 59 with Jeff Siegel.  They used to have a bus that would take you to Santa Anita or Hollywood for 50 cents each way.  Those now look like good days

[HawgWild]

husker71 We go back a few years for sure. Like Andrew Beyer mentioned in his 1st book, Picking Winners, I arranged my college class schedule around Oaklawn Park's race card.

A few years back I mentioned Tim Doocy as giving the worst race ride I'd ever seen on Brents Trans Am and someone on the board remembered that race. Was that you?