How Mariota vs. Jameis debate helps Hogs

[WizardofhOgZ]

It highlights the debate about no-huddle QB's vs. those who play in more traditional, NFL oriented offenses.

Sure, it's great to put up PlayStation numbers and throw the ball all over the field.  But the QB's that want to make it to the NFL may want to consider what NFL talent evaluators look at when choosing a school (and type of offense), and that plays to our benefit.

www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000472366/article/bruce-arians-criticizes-colleges-spread-offenses

[jesterzzn]

If College Football ever, and I mean ever, seriously considers what is best for the NFL they are in danger of becoming like NCAA Basketball.  The worst thing NCAA Basketball ever did was to capitulate to the NBA age rules and model their game day experience to mimic corporate arenas.

Poor whiny NFL coach doesn't like that the NCAA isn't operating like an NFL developmental league?  Tough ****.  I hate entitled NFL blowhards.

[WizardofhOgZ]

Like it or not, top players are interested in skills/experience that will get them into the League.  In this case, it plays to our benefit.

And I like THAT.

If College Football ever, and I mean ever, seriously considers what is best for the NFL they are in danger of becoming like NCAA Basketball.  The worst thing NCAA Basketball ever did was to capitulate to the NBA age rules and model their game day experience to mimic corporate arenas.

Poor whiny NFL coach doesn't like that the NCAA isn't operating like an NFL developmental league?  Tough ****.  I hate entitled NFL blowhards.

[Choctaw Hog]

Like it or not, top players are interested in skills/experience that will get them into the League.  In this case, it plays to our benefit.

And I like THAT.

This.  I don't really follow the NFL but it makes perfect sense for NFL teams to want players, especially QBs, who are adept at most phases of the game.  It's no difference than what the NBA or MLB look for in players coming from college. 

[Inhogswetrust]

Poor whiny NFL coach doesn't like that the NCAA isn't operating like an NFL developmental league?  Tough ****.  I hate entitled NFL blowhards.

I don't think Arians meant it like you think. It wasn't about whether the NFL is "entitled" or not. I think he meant it as an issue with individual players and their potential evaluation based on the style used by their coach. It might make evaluations more difficult. He also mentioned WR's not being as physical in college and DL's and OL's. Some of the things he mentioned have been things to worry about for a long time from their perspective.   

[Vantage 8 dude]

Well with what a lot of NFL teams have to pay QBs and other position players I think they'd prefer a player who's at least MORE LIKELY ready to play in the league once they're signed and on the roster. Obviously not even kids who've played in more pro like systems are automatically ready to step in and start; however, IF you got one player who's been used to a more pro style system versus another who's been in the HUNH I believe many GMs and others might opt for the former. In any event, if whatever offensive system we run helps lure our kids to the NFL more often then generally the better for us in the long run.

[Smokehouse]

All it takes is for one team to grab Mariota in the top five, either by using the pick or trading up to it, and the entire conversation is moot.

[Hogarusa]

Pretty big stretch for how this "debate" helps Hogs. Both QBs are top 5 picks and Heisman winners. 

[RazorChuck]

One however is an accomplished rapist, well versed in burying the truth.
Tough to compete with that.

[Inhogswetrust]

All it takes is for one team to grab Mariota in the top five, either by using the pick or trading up to it, and the entire conversation is moot.

I don't think so because it isn't when you are taken it is how successful you are early and throughout your pro career. Getting drafted early isn't the issue it is getting drafted early and being successful enough to make big bucks over time.

[bigdaddyhawg]

All it takes is for one team to grab Mariota in the top five, either by using the pick or trading up to it, and the entire conversation is moot.

I don't think where he is drafted is the deal.  It's about how he plays in the NFL.

Somebody on the NFL Network yesterday compared him to Sam Bradford, and I agree.   Bradford was supposed to be this great NFL QB, had all the talent and the intangibles, yet he's been a bust.

If Mariota becomes the next in a long line of heralded CF QB's to come out of that mickey mouse spread offense to bust in the NFL, then I think WizardofHogz point will come to fruition.

And I think he will bust.  Perhaps not completely, but I seriously doubt he'll ever become anything close to what he showed in college.

[jesterzzn]

Bradford was supposed to be this great NFL QB, had all the talent and the intangibles, yet he's been a bust.

Bradford is only a bust because he has been injured.  If he stayed healthy the Rams might have made the playoffs this year.  Bradford's "bust" status isn't because of his play, its just unfortunate circumstance and maybe some bad genetics in his legs.  Before getting injured in 2013 he was on track to have a Manning-esque season.

[bennyl08]

Bradford is only a bust because he has been injured.  If he stayed healthy the Rams might have made the playoffs this year.  Bradford's "bust" status isn't because of his play, its just unfortunate circumstance and maybe some bad genetics in his legs.  Before getting injured in 2013 he was on track to have a Manning-esque season.

Agreed. He wasn't very good early on in his career, but the past two seasons he has been on point when healthy. Locker for that matter has also been very good the past two seasons when healthy. However, ask McFadden, being on the field is an important part of the game.

[HiggiePiggy]

I don't think where he is drafted is the deal.  It's about how he plays in the NFL.

Somebody on the NFL Network yesterday compared him to Sam Bradford, and I agree.   Bradford was supposed to be this great NFL QB, had all the talent and the intangibles, yet he's been a bust.

If Mariota becomes the next in a long line of heralded CF QB's to come out of that mickey mouse spread offense to bust in the NFL, then I think WizardofHogz point will come to fruition.

And I think he will bust.  Perhaps not completely, but I seriously doubt he'll ever become anything close to what he showed in college.

Sam Bradford has been a bust because he is injured all the time.   It was stupid for rams taking him knowing that he has had a couple of injuries in college.

[Smokehouse]

I don't think so because it isn't when you are taken it is how successful you are early and throughout your pro career. Getting drafted early isn't the issue it is getting drafted early and being successful enough to make big bucks over time.

There are plenty of pro-style QBs who are busts every year too. The majority of draft picks end up being busts.

If you can get a QB to a high draft pick, they get a better signing bonus and more chances to prove themselves because of the financial commitment by the team. If you can produce a Heisman trophy winner who's a top 5 pick you're not going to have trouble getting one of the QBs you target in recruiting. Let's not kid ourselves here.

[bigdaddyhawg]

Bradford is only a bust because he has been injured.  If he stayed healthy the Rams might have made the playoffs this year.  Bradford's "bust" status isn't because of his play, its just unfortunate circumstance and maybe some bad genetics in his legs.  Before getting injured in 2013 he was on track to have a Manning-esque season.

I respectfully disagree.  Even when he's been healthy he's put up very mediocre numbers.  Nothing in his performance has come close to where he was drafted and the expectations the Rams had for him.

[bigdaddyhawg]

There are plenty of pro-style QBs who are busts every year too. The majority of draft picks end up being busts.

If you can get a QB to a high draft pick, they get a better signing bonus and more chances to prove themselves because of the financial commitment by the team. If you can produce a Heisman trophy winner who's a top 5 pick you're not going to have trouble getting one of the QBs you target in recruiting. Let's not kid ourselves here.

While your premise is true, the issue is the hype surrounding these system QB's -- they look awesome in their college video.  But in the NFL they shrink to mediocrity.

And while there are certainly pro-style QB's that flame in the NFL as well, the portion that completely fail is much smaller than those coming from the spread/mickey mouse/high school offenses.

[HiggiePiggy]

I respectfully disagree.  Even when he's been healthy he's put up very mediocre numbers.  Nothing in his performance has come close to where he was drafted and the expectations the Rams had for him.

3700 yards and 21 TDs in 2012.  I would say he was doing pretty good that year.  All other years he has been injured.   The guy was a good QB, but because of injuries was a bust.  I still think rams made a mistake taking him knowing the injuries that he had in college.  Heck he missed almost an entire season in college also.   Was a dumb move by the rams.   They were hoping he would be able to stay healthy.   I think he will be in the league awhile.  He would make a pretty good back up QB. 

[DeltaBoy]

Sam because of his injuries is best as a back up.

[bigdaddyhawg]

3700 yards and 21 TDs in 2012.  I would say he was doing pretty good that year. 

Nowhere near where the #1 overall pick in the draft should be.  That's 231 ypg, and only 1.3 TDpg -- pretty mediocre stats for his best year.

And that year he had one of the lowest yard per attempt average in the league, 6.7 ypa.  Weak.  He was better than only Brandon Weeden in the top twenty QB's that year.  Which means he was constantly throwing short, and considering his completion percentage was <60%, that's a pretty mediocre year IMO -- and in most people's opinions.

[Smokehouse]

While your premise is true, the issue is the hype surrounding these system QB's -- they look awesome in their college video.  But in the NFL they shrink to mediocrity.

And while there are certainly pro-style QB's that flame in the NFL as well, the portion that completely fail is much smaller than those coming from the spread/mickey mouse/high school offenses.

Not really. There's some confirmation bias going on here. There are more QBs coming out of spread offenses these days so of course you'll find more burnouts. In recent history pro-style QBs are buoyed by having a once-in-a-lifetime talent in Luck, but other than there's just a lot of backups or some guys who had brief moments of upside before falling out of favor.

There's certainly enough failure on both sides that a spread offense in college has plenty of room to tell a recruit "we'll get you drafted in the top rounds, the rest is up to you."

[HiggiePiggy]

Nowhere near where the #1 overall pick in the draft should be.  That's 231 ypg, and only 1.3 TDpg -- pretty mediocre stats for his best year.

And that year he had one of the lowest yard per attempt average in the league, 6.7 ypa.  Weak.  He was better than only Brandon Weeden in the top twenty QB's that year.  Which means he was constantly throwing short, and considering his completion percentage was <60%, that's a pretty mediocre year IMO -- and in most people's opinions.

I would say he did pretty good that year considering very few QBs unless they are the elite ones are going for high 3k yards to almost 5k yards.  Didn't say he was elite, but he is far better than half the league in my opinion when healthy.  That is the thing though. He isn't healthy and he wasn't when he went to the Rams in the first place. 

[jesterzzn]

I respectfully disagree.  Even when he's been healthy he's put up very mediocre numbers.  Nothing in his performance has come close to where he was drafted and the expectations the Rams had for him.

In 2012 he had several games that showed he was catching on.  He led more 4th qrt comebacks than all but the upper elite QBs, and his completion percentage has risen every year.

In 2013 he was on pace for 4000+ yds and 30+ TDs with fewer than 10 ints and a completion percentage over .610.  Those are not bust QB numbers.  Obviously we'll never know if he would have reached those projections in the final 9 games.  But, given his consistent improvement every year, he was on pace to one of the better QBs in the league in year 4.  Which is generally right on schedule.

He would have been a 26 year old proven QB with a good 6-8 prime years left.

I'm not saying the guy's top ten, but looking back at his career with absolutely no emotional investment at all, I'd say he was on pace to earn his money and justify his selection.  Bad luck is all that was.

[bigdaddyhawg]

In 2012 he had several games that showed he was catching on.  He led more 4th qrt comebacks than all but the upper elite QBs, and his completion percentage has risen every year.

In 2013 he was on pace for 4000+ yds and 30+ TDs with fewer than 10 ints and a completion percentage over .610.  Those are not bust QB numbers.  Obviously we'll never know if he would have reached those projections in the final 9 games.  But, given his consistent improvement every year, he was on pace to one of the better QBs in the league in year 4.  Which is generally right on schedule.

He would have been a 26 year old proven QB with a good 6-8 prime years left.

I'm not saying the guy's top ten, but looking back at his career with absolutely no emotional investment at all, I'd say he was on pace to earn his money and justify his selection.  Bad luck is all that was.

I've never seen much in his play but mediocrity, and that's nowhere close to fulfilling his top pick.

It's easy to say "If he hadn't been hurt, then ...", but his play on the field was pretty underwhelming.

[bigdaddyhawg]

I would say he did pretty good that year considering very few QBs unless they are the elite ones are going for high 3k yards to almost 5k yards.  Didn't say he was elite, but he is far better than half the league in my opinion when healthy.  That is the thing though. He isn't healthy and he wasn't when he went to the Rams in the first place. 

In the year you are so proud of he was rated #19 in the league, and that's nowhere close to "way better than half the league".

This mediocrity / disappointment in Bradford is confirmed by the Rams themselves, who are planning to release him soon, according to multiple reports.

If he had anything even resembling a QB just below the elite in the league that simply would not be happening.  QB's are too hard to come by.

[bigdaddyhawg]

Not really. There's some confirmation bias going on here. There are more QBs coming out of spread offenses these days so of course you'll find more burnouts. In recent history pro-style QBs are buoyed by having a once-in-a-lifetime talent in Luck, but other than there's just a lot of backups or some guys who had brief moments of upside before falling out of favor.

There's certainly enough failure on both sides that a spread offense in college has plenty of room to tell a recruit "we'll get you drafted in the top rounds, the rest is up to you."

The issue that you want to ignore has been addressed by Bruce Arians (sp?) and others just last week.

A QB, ANY QB coming out of college has got his hands full playing that position in the NFL.  There's a ton to learn on top of adjusting to the speed of the game.

But add to those difficulties facing a rookie/inexperienced new QB these spread kids have to basically learn a new position.  The list of disadvantages they face are long and complex, and so many never adjust.

While this is also true of QB's from pro-style systems, those QB's don't have the much steeper learning curve the spread kids face.

I doubt Mariota ever produces much in the NFL.  There's a VERY long line of Oregon QB's almost as heralded who flopped in the NFL.  On top of everything I've given here, the kid has a questionable arm and a frail build.  He's a system QB who has been over-hyped because he plays for media darling Oregon.

[rude1]

The article might have some validity if it wasn't for the fact that the NFL was bad at QB evaluations before the spread offenses became the norm. The list of can't miss NFL evaluated QB prospects who busted are legendary. Then on the other side of the equation the evaluators believed Tom Brady couldn't play in the league.......

[Danny J]

The article might have some validity if it wasn't for the fact that the NFL was bad at QB evaluations before the spread offenses became the norm. The list of can't miss NFL evaluated QB prospects who busted are legendary. Then on the other side of the equation the evaluators believed Tom Brady couldn't play in the league.......

Totally agree......they get paid the big $$$$ to make these decisions and I bet HV could vote who to draft in what spot and probably be pretty damn close to hitting the mark as most NFL scouts and GM's.

The only thing I know about HUNH running QB's is that a QB who is a run first guy will never every stay healthy long term. Have yet to see one do it.

[sooeey pig pig pig]

The NFL is and has been for several years, a passing league.  Not sure how that helps the Hogs.

[bigdaddyhawg]

The article might have some validity if it wasn't for the fact that the NFL was bad at QB evaluations before the spread offenses became the norm. The list of can't miss NFL evaluated QB prospects who busted are legendary. Then on the other side of the equation the evaluators believed Tom Brady couldn't play in the league.......

This is because one of the biggest, if not THE biggest quality in a successful NFL QB is what is between his ears.  And it's not about raw intelligence, but rather more about the ability of a guy to make great decisions while under intense pressure.

That's a hard one to set up an evaluating tool for.

That's another reason the spread HUNH QB's struggle so often.  In college, the system makes their decisions for them for the most part.

[HiggiePiggy]

I never said I was proud of it.   Just saying he isn't a crappy QB and above average. I have said many times in here that he shouldn't have been picked by the rams.   He really shouldn't have been the first overall pick. But there are a lot of crappy GMs out there and really make some stupid picks.  This was one of them.  Knowing his injuries before ever taking a snap in the league should have been a red flag for any team to pick him first.   

[HiggiePiggy]

This is because one of the biggest, if not THE biggest quality in a successful NFL QB is what is between his ears.  And it's not about raw intelligence, but rather more about the ability of a guy to make great decisions while under intense pressure.

That's a hard one to set up an evaluating tool for.

That's another reason the spread HUNH QB's struggle so often.  In college, the system makes their decisions for them for the most part.

There is probably a hand full of teams that allow their QBs to run the show in the nfl.  Majority of the teams are having their QBs do what they are told to do.   

[bigdaddyhawg]

There is probably a hand full of teams that allow their QBs to run the show in the nfl.  Majority of the teams are having their QBs do what they are told to do.   

That's not what I was addressing. 

What I was talking about was the thinking on the go of the QB once he gets to the line sees the defense pre-snap, then reacts to what he sees post snap then makes a decision what to do with the football while those big monsters are on their way to grind him to dust.

A strong arm is a really good asset, as is good size, but that quality right there is what separates the really good QB's from the mediocre ones.

[bigdaddyhawg]

I never said I was proud of it.   Just saying he isn't a crappy QB and above average. I have said many times in here that he shouldn't have been picked by the rams.   He really shouldn't have been the first overall pick. But there are a lot of crappy GMs out there and really make some stupid picks.  This was one of them.  Knowing his injuries before ever taking a snap in the league should have been a red flag for any team to pick him first.   

I agree it's not Bradford's fault he was the #1 pick, and I also agree it never should have happened.  IMO he was a third round quality pick.

At Oklahoma he had almost no pocket pressure and all day to decide where to go with the ball, therefore that quality I was talking about in the post above was never tested.

If I were a GM I'd always be leery of kids with big numbers produced at big time programs where they play on a team that always has the talent advantage.  This is another reason I'm doubtful re: Mariota. 

His play in the NC game when he DIDN'T have that advantage he looked like a completely different QB.  I think that's just a preview of what he'll look like in the NFL.

Another example of this very thing is ol' Mazzoli.  At UO he was another one of those big number producing studs.  At OM he was a mediocre QB who frequently made bad decisions with the football.

[bigdaddyhawg]

The NFL is and has been for several years, a passing league.  Not sure how that helps the Hogs.

If the word gets out to kids that QB's from pro-style offenses have a very real advantage come draft day, then those few remaining true pro-style offenses might be favored by kids on national signing day.

Not a hard concept to grasp.

[acua]

You are what you are.  If you have Mariota type skills you will put yourself into a collegiate situation to best utilize those skills.  If you have Ryan Mallet skills you are going to get the hell out of Rich Rodriquez system asap.  The best thing Arkansas can do to help itself at the QB situation is have a QB lead the nation in something and get drafted in the first two rounds then light up the NFL all assuming the system that got him there (style, coach, etc) are all still in place.

[bigdaddyhawg]

You are what you are.  If you have Mariota type skills you will put yourself into a collegiate situation to best utilize those skills.  If you have Ryan Mallet skills you are going to get the hell out of Rich Rodriquez system asap.  The best thing Arkansas can do to help itself at the QB situation is have a QB lead the nation in something and get drafted in the first two rounds then light up the NFL all assuming the system that got him there (style, coach, etc) are all still in place.

Good points.  Yeah, if I was a true dual threat QB I'd surely go to one of those schools that gave the chance to use my skills.

But it might swing a kid that's not a true dual threat, help him lead towards a more pro-style offense.

Of course, more of those decisions are probably determined by the color of the uniform, whether they are Nike or not, and just how much cash up front is involved.  ;-)