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ESPN FPI Predicts Arkansas's 2017 Football Season

Started by Youngsta71701, June 17, 2017, 06:44:36 am

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OneTuskOverTheLine™

Quote from: Al Boarland on June 21, 2017, 06:08:56 am
And with all that they are still more accurate than many on hogville.

Well that's because you have a bunch of homers and haters doing the same thing with less info and more feeling. I'm just sayin'...
Quote from: capehog on March 12, 2010...
My ex wife had a pet monkey I used to play with. That was one of the few things I liked about her

quote from: golf2day on June 19, 2014....
I'm disgusted, but kinda excited. Now I'm disgusted that I'm excited.

Al Boarland

Quote from: OneTuskOverTheLine™ on June 21, 2017, 06:14:15 am
Well that's because you have a bunch of homers and haters doing the same thing with less info and more feeling. I'm just sayin'...
No doubt about it.

 

Boss Hog in the Arkansas

Quote from: MuskogeeHogFan on June 17, 2017, 09:29:10 am
Not really "stepping out". I think that if all we win is 8 games after Bielema being on board for 4 years, that is underachieving. Need to win at least 9 for the 2017 season to be considered a success, at least as it relates to progress for the program (in terms of wins) under Bielema. Just my opinion.
We actually had a 9 win season lined up for us last season before we collapsed. We win against Mizzou and VA Tech and the offseason conversation is completely different.
That's right, you don't want to be the man to replace the man.  You want to be the man to replace Rory Segrest.

MuskogeeHogFan

Quote from: Boss Hog in the Arkansas on June 21, 2017, 07:22:50 am
We actually had a 9 win season lined up for us last season before we collapsed. We win against Mizzou and VA Tech and the offseason conversation is completely different.

Actually I can see where we had a pretty good chance to win 9, 10 and 10 from 2014 through 2016. Just need to be prepared, make good adjustments, make a few more plays and finish games.
Go Hogs Go!

MuskogeeHogFan

Quote from: OneTuskOverTheLine™ on June 21, 2017, 06:14:15 am
Well that's because you have a bunch of homers and haters doing the same thing with less info and more feeling. I'm just sayin'...

The last 3 years the FPI has been off by about 1.5 games (+/-) on average in projecting the overall SEC wins by team. Over those 3 years they have had two teams that they predict accurately out of 14 (14.3%) and they have had 1 team each year that surprises everyone and wins 4-5 more games than they projected. Everyone else they tend to miss by 1 to 2 wins.
Go Hogs Go!

Youngsta71701

Quote from: rhames on June 20, 2017, 01:45:59 pm

Lol. Jerry Jones isn't going to pay Bret's buyout.
Lol...I know but that's the first name that comes to mind. ;) He definitely could if he wanted to.
"The more things change the more they stay the same"

Youngsta71701

Quote from: Al Boarland on June 21, 2017, 02:04:23 am
Times have changed. If you don't think we are at a geapgeaphical disadvantage recruiting I don't know what to tell you.

It's a fact.
With all of these interstates and things it much easier to get to Fayetteville than it's ever been.
"The more things change the more they stay the same"

rhames

June 21, 2017, 07:55:45 am #57 Last Edit: June 21, 2017, 08:22:19 am by rhames
Quote from: OneTuskOverTheLine™ on June 21, 2017, 05:44:04 am
It changes as the season goes on because it's the same bullshrimp method that these monkey fighting snakes at ESPN do every year. They plot teams based on their imagined  "Greatness scale of History" and cross reference that with "Recruiting rankings" both of which are akin to global warming(made up political bullshrimp); then they cook that in a broth with how they feel for that day until they come up with a "Somebodies got to lose" Because LSU, Auburn, Florida and Georgia are going to have to be propped up in their fantasy list. Tennessee used to get this propping, but after having a top 5 recruiting class and a bottom 50 finish 10 years running, they lost one or two of their proverbial EA Sports Prestige Stars... (You old skool NCAA ballers knowutImean)...


It's a statistical analysis that out puts a probability of an outcome. It actually takes into account a great amount of data. You should read up on it. I know that's  against the good ole having an opinion before reading the facts.



If it had us with 10 instances where the hogs have the higher probability of winning you all would be swearing by it

I think hogville lacks an understanding of probability VS prediction



It has the hogs in the 6 to 7 win range which is about right.

"I'm too drunk to taste this chicken"

"Can we get some waffles after we get some ass?" - Aunt Tiffany Freeman

Quote from: Hamdsome 1 on September 05, 2023, 06:43:26 pmSTHU. I get in more steps per day, at work, than you could possibly fathom.
The only down time my legs see is when seated in 1st Class.

rhames

Quote from: MuskogeeHogFan on June 21, 2017, 07:38:10 am
The last 3 years the FPI has been off by about 1.5 games (+/-) on average in projecting the overall SEC wins by team. Over those 3 years they have had two teams that they predict accurately out of 14 (14.3%) and they have had 1 team each year that surprises everyone and wins 4-5 more games than they projected. Everyone else they tend to miss by 1 to 2 wins.


Is this you ball parking it? I've read where it has about a 77% success rate. Which is pretty damn good when it comes to this kind of stuff.
"I'm too drunk to taste this chicken"

"Can we get some waffles after we get some ass?" - Aunt Tiffany Freeman

Quote from: Hamdsome 1 on September 05, 2023, 06:43:26 pmSTHU. I get in more steps per day, at work, than you could possibly fathom.
The only down time my legs see is when seated in 1st Class.

Al Boarland

Quote from: Youngsta71701 on June 21, 2017, 07:45:26 am
With all of these interstates and things it much easier to get to Fayetteville than it's ever been.

Those interstates pass 3-4 programs with greater tradition, equal facilities and are closer to momma along the way to Fayetteville.

MuskogeeHogFan

Quote from: rhames on June 21, 2017, 08:00:08 am

Is this you ball parking it? I've read where it has about a 77% success rate. Which is pretty damn good when it comes to this kind of stuff.

Ball parking it? No, I just went back and observed the last 3 years results. On the ones they missed big, 2014 they projected that Missouri would win 7 and they won 11. In 2015 they projected Florida to win 3 in SEC play and they won 7 and the same year they projected Missouri to win 4 SEC games and they won only 1. Last year they projected Alabama to win 9 and they won 14. They also projected LSU to win 11 (rounded up from 10.5) and they won 8 and they projected Ole Miss to win 8 and they won 5. As I said above, two teams they hit on the nose and the rest they missed by about 1.4/1.5(+/-). I don't know about 77% success rate, I was just posting what I observed.
Go Hogs Go!

12247

BB can go 4-8 and maybe even 0-12 and still get 2018.  If He goes 5 wins or less in 2017, he should be fired before the overhead big board is turned off at the end of the last game.  Until the Arkansas programs expect success, it is not likely to come.  We should win 6 if we lose our starting QB for the season on the first play of the first game.  We should be deep at QB.  We aren't because we don't practice, train and play the seconds in a serious manner. 

Just a remainder to all the faithful folks.  Those fiddles may need new strings and fresh resin for the bow come fall.  Best you get them all tuned up here in the dog days of Summer.  Practice those 3 endearing tunes, Just wait till next year, He needs more time, and the refs screwed us again.

All joking aside, I believe this will be BBs best year so far.  I think and so much hope we will see him get far more involved here in year 5.


rhames

Quote from: MuskogeeHogFan on June 21, 2017, 08:28:39 am
Ball parking it? No, I just went back and observed the last 3 years results. On the ones they missed big, 2014 they projected that Missouri would win 7 and they won 11. In 2015 they projected Florida to win 3 in SEC play and they won 7 and the same year they projected Missouri to win 4 SEC games and they won only 1. Last year they projected Alabama to win 9 and they won 14. They also projected LSU to win 11 (rounded up from 10.5) and they won 8 and they projected Ole Miss to win 8 and they won 5. As I said above, two teams they hit on the nose and the rest they missed by about 1.4/1.5(+/-). I don't know about 77% success rate, I was just posting what I observed.

So just where it was off in the sec. And yes that is ball parking it


Also these are probabilities not true predictions. For the most part it seems to have a 77%
Hit rate


It also at times doesn't like teams that can end up being successful. It didn't favor Michigan State for the past few years (last year Michigan State was horrible so that would be the exception ) 

Arkansas would probably be in this boat.


This all goes back to how to read the data and not just look at "oh it has team x with the highest probability to win 6 out of 12 games so it is predicting 6 wins"

"I'm too drunk to taste this chicken"

"Can we get some waffles after we get some ass?" - Aunt Tiffany Freeman

Quote from: Hamdsome 1 on September 05, 2023, 06:43:26 pmSTHU. I get in more steps per day, at work, than you could possibly fathom.
The only down time my legs see is when seated in 1st Class.

 

MuskogeeHogFan

Quote from: rhames on June 21, 2017, 08:38:01 am
So just where it was off in the sec. And yes that is ball parking it


Also these are probabilities not true predictions. For the most part it seems to have a 77%
Hit rate


It also at times doesn't like teams that can end up being successful. It didn't favor Michigan State for the past few years (last year Michigan State was horrible so that would be the exception ) 

Arkansas would probably be in this boat.


This all goes back to how to read the data and not just look at "oh if has team x with the highest probability to win 6 out of 12 games so it is predicting 6 wins"



Look, don't know about that I was just going by their "probability" of a certain number of wins prior to the season vs. the "actual" number of wins at the end of the season.
Go Hogs Go!

bphi11ips

Probabilties generated by recent history is just one way to analyze the comparative strength of football teams.  What is the criteria?  There used to be an acronym applied to computer generated data - GIGO - garbage in garbage out.

I'm not suggesting the data selected by the designers of the FPI are garbage, but the FPI removes the human element of intuition.  It also does not have the ability to anticipate spikes, e.g., injuries to key players.  It takes a snapshot in time and generates probabilities based upon that snapshot.  Football doesn't work that way on the field.

I can't remember a season when Arkansas faced more variables incapable of computer analysis.  Staying healthy, especially at QB, will be important.  Computers can't predict whether Jeremy Patton will make it to campus or whether Brandon Martin will have the same kind of year D'Haquille Williams had for Auburn in 2014.  If Martin catches 45 passes for 745 yards I like our chances to win 8 or more.  Like Williams, Martin is the number 1 ranked juco WR.  Computers don't consider our change to the 3-4 or know the way opponents exploited the middle of the field last year after Dre Greenlaw was injured and Brooks Ellis was running around trying to cover too much territory.  Computers don't anticipate chemistry or leadership or chips on shoulders or momentum (which can go both ways).

FPI may take rose colored glasses out of the equation, but I think human experience and intuition are superior to computers.  Phil Steele is one of the best at looking at all variables and following his gut.  I think his predictions come out next week.  My guess is he predicts something similar for Arkansas but also says this is a very difficult year to predict for the Hogs.

The closer the season gets, the better I feel.  But then I'm a homer.
Life is too short for grudges and feuds.

bphi11ips

Quote from: rhames on June 21, 2017, 08:38:01 am
So just where it was off in the sec. And yes that is ball parking it


Also these are probabilities not true predictions. For the most part it seems to have a 77%
Hit rate


It also at times doesn't like teams that can end up being successful. It didn't favor Michigan State for the past few years (last year Michigan State was horrible so that would be the exception ) 

Arkansas would probably be in this boat.


This all goes back to how to read the data and not just look at "oh it has team x with the highest probability to win 6 out of 12 games so it is predicting 6 wins"



I don't understand how comparing actual results to predictions in the rear view mirror is "ballparking it".

Regardless of semantics, the FPI forecasts a 63% probability that South Carolina will beat Arkansas.  That is a prediction.  One team will win.  If that team is Arkansas, the FPI was wrong on that game at this time.  The FPI may change by gametime, but that isn't what Muskogee is talking about. 
Life is too short for grudges and feuds.

hobhog

We beat TCU, a$m, and get on a roll. 9-10 wins.

Hogtimes

Quote from: MuskogeeHogFan on June 17, 2017, 09:29:10 am
Not really "stepping out". I think that if all we win is 8 games after Bielema being on board for 4 years, that is underachieving. Need to win at least 9 for the 2017 season to be considered a success, at least as it relates to progress for the program (in terms of wins) under Bielema. Just my opinion.



I agree.  Three non-conference games are automatic wins.  Need to win at least five of the nine  remaining games.   Winning four out of nine is just not good enough.

Having said that....I am convinced we will win at least 8 games and likely 9 or 10.

bphi11ips

Quote from: hobhog on June 21, 2017, 09:45:37 am
We beat TCU, a$m, and get on a roll. 9-10 wins.

Agree.  Those are the swing games for the season.
Life is too short for grudges and feuds.

gchamblee

Quote from: Youngsta71701 on June 21, 2017, 07:45:26 am
With all of these interstates and things it much easier to get to Fayetteville than it's ever been.

It's easier to get to a cornfield in Nebraska as well, but that doesn't make me want to go hang out there.

RME

Quote from: gchamblee on June 21, 2017, 10:05:19 am
It's easier to get to a cornfield in Nebraska as well, but that doesn't make me want to go hang out there.

Are you saying Fayetteville is as desirable to hang out in as a Nebraskan cornfield?

MuskogeeHogFan

June 21, 2017, 10:13:42 am #71 Last Edit: June 21, 2017, 10:32:45 am by MuskogeeHogFan
Quote from: bphi11ips on June 21, 2017, 09:38:44 am
I don't understand how comparing actual results to predictions in the rear view mirror is "ballparking it".

Regardless of semantics, the FPI forecasts a 63% probability that South Carolina will beat Arkansas.  That is a prediction.  One team will win.  If that team is Arkansas, the FPI was wrong on that game at this time.  The FPI may change by gametime, but that isn't what Muskogee is talking about. 

Speaking of Phil Steele, his prediction for Arkansas last year was anywhere from 5-7 to 9-3. Too many variables. Prior to 2015 he had us as a #22 pre season pick and suggested us as a contender in the SEC West but also picked us to come in at #5 in the West. Prior to 2014 he had us picked last in the SEC West. Prior to the 2013 season he also had us at #5 in the West and projected the Hogs to be one of his most improved teams over 2012.

I say all of that just to make the point that we still seem to have a lot of lingering questions that need to be answered about this team and a case could be made that we could theoretically go 5-7 just as there is a case to be made that we could go 9-3 or 10-2. There just remains too many variables for anyone to check out on the Hogs as being a loser at this point of the summer, just as there are too many variables at this point for anyone to lock us in as winning 9-10 games. If everything goes just right we might be that team that surprises the FPI by winning 4 or 5 more than their "probability" indicates, or we might go the other way and end up a loss or two under their most recent projection. I know which I am hoping for but I wouldn't run to the Bookie and put any money on it.
Go Hogs Go!

rhames

Quote from: bphi11ips on June 21, 2017, 09:38:44 am
I don't understand how comparing actual results to predictions in the rear view mirror is "ballparking it".

Regardless of semantics, the FPI forecasts a 63% probability that South Carolina will beat Arkansas.  That is a prediction.  One team will win.  If that team is Arkansas, the FPI was wrong on that game at this time.  The FPI may change by gametime, but that isn't what Muskogee is talking about. 


That's not what it means though. It isn't a prediction.


If you flip a coin 2 times and it lands on heads the probability of the third time it landing on heads in a row is 12.5%


So if it's heads a third time does that mean the probability was wrong? Not in the slightest. It's all about reading data the correct way.

"I'm too drunk to taste this chicken"

"Can we get some waffles after we get some ass?" - Aunt Tiffany Freeman

Quote from: Hamdsome 1 on September 05, 2023, 06:43:26 pmSTHU. I get in more steps per day, at work, than you could possibly fathom.
The only down time my legs see is when seated in 1st Class.

bphi11ips

Quote from: rhames on June 21, 2017, 10:35:22 am

That's not what it means though. It isn't a prediction.


If you flip a coin 2 times and it lands on heads the probability of the third time it landing on heads in a row is 12.5%


So if it's heads a third time does that mean the probability was wrong? Not in the slightest. It's all about reading data the correct way.



Flipping coins is perfectly predictable.  College football games are not.  Is the FPI reading the data the right way?  Maybe.  The bigger question is what data and who decides?

There is no way in the world a formula can predict the probability of the outcome of a football game.  It can predict the probability based upon data input into the formula itself. The probability is only as good as the formula. If Arkansas were to beat South Carolina twice in Columbia this year, what would the probability be that they would win there a third time?  10%?  I don't think so. 
Life is too short for grudges and feuds.

 

010HogFan

Quote from: rhames on June 20, 2017, 01:48:30 pm

Why do you think that?

Because they are. Might be a bad example, but last year according to the FPI I think we had somewhere around a 15% chance of beating Auburn. As bad of a game as we had, it'd be easy to say that this was an accurate number based on hindsight, but if you erase that knowledge from the equation, with us being ranked #17 and them being ranked #21, I think we probably should have been given more than a 15% chance of winning that game. Even after a 4-1 start we were only given a 25% chance to beat Ole Miss. FPI always seems to be way off from reality even in games that most would agree are tossups at worst.

rhames

I understand what you're saying I do. Again the devil is in the details. It's a probability game not a production game. If you're really curious as to how it works here the link

http://www.espn.com/blog/statsinfo/post/_/id/109828/reintroducing-espns-college-football-power-index


I'm not arguing that it's 100 percent. Noting is ever 100% when forecasting but I don't agree to just discredit what the information is trying to tell us.
"I'm too drunk to taste this chicken"

"Can we get some waffles after we get some ass?" - Aunt Tiffany Freeman

Quote from: Hamdsome 1 on September 05, 2023, 06:43:26 pmSTHU. I get in more steps per day, at work, than you could possibly fathom.
The only down time my legs see is when seated in 1st Class.

rhames

Quote from: 010HogFan on June 21, 2017, 11:18:46 am
Because they are. Might be a bad example, but last year according to the FPI I think we had somewhere around a 15% chance of beating Auburn. As bad of a game as we had, it'd be easy to say that this was an accurate number based on hindsight, but if you erase that knowledge from the equation, with us being ranked #17 and them being ranked #21, I think we probably should have been given more than a 15% chance of winning that game. Even after a 4-1 start we were only given a 25% chance to beat Ole Miss. FPI always seems to be way off from reality even in games that most would agree are tossups at worst.


I would say 15% chance was pretty accurate giving the outcome. I'd have to look back at the ole miss game but I bet we had a higher than 25% to beat them. They may have has a higher probability of beating us but I bet it wasn't 75%  I could be wrong though.


You should look into the link I posted. Doesn't work the way you think.



I stand corrected. You were right about the ole miss game.
"I'm too drunk to taste this chicken"

"Can we get some waffles after we get some ass?" - Aunt Tiffany Freeman

Quote from: Hamdsome 1 on September 05, 2023, 06:43:26 pmSTHU. I get in more steps per day, at work, than you could possibly fathom.
The only down time my legs see is when seated in 1st Class.

MuskogeeHogFan

Quote from: rhames on June 21, 2017, 11:20:05 am
I understand what you're saying I do. Again the devil is in the details. It's a probability game not a production game. If you're really curious as to how it works here the link

http://www.espn.com/blog/statsinfo/post/_/id/109828/reintroducing-espns-college-football-power-index


I'm not arguing that it's 100 percent. Noting is ever 100% when forecasting but I don't agree to just discredit what the information is trying to tell us.

And it says this...

What is college FPI?

FPI is a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward. The ultimate goal of FPI is not to rank teams 1 through 128; rather, it is to correctly predict games and season outcomes. If Vegas ever published the power rankings it uses to set its lines, they would likely look quite a lot like FPI.

Sounds like it is projecting and predicting results to me based on their own description of the FPI. Now it is undated each week based on actual results which should make their predictive analysis of any given team more accurate as the season progresses, so I could see how it is 77% accurate.
Go Hogs Go!

rhames

Quote from: MuskogeeHogFan on June 21, 2017, 11:27:14 am
And it says this...

What is college FPI?

FPI is a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward. The ultimate goal of FPI is not to rank teams 1 through 128; rather, it is to correctly predict games and season outcomes. If Vegas ever published the power rankings it uses to set its lines, they would likely look quite a lot like FPI.

Sounds like it is projecting and predicting results to me based on their own description of the FPI. Now it is undated each week based on actual results which should make their predictive analysis of any given team more accurate as the season progresses, so I could see how it is 77% accurate.


I was wrong about that. I still don't think, in a numbers sense, just because the hogs have a higher probability in 5 games that the FPi  is only predicting 5 wins. It isn't. The likeliest outcome given all the data as of now is 6 wins. 


I guess that was the point I was trying to make. I'm just not good at it haha.
"I'm too drunk to taste this chicken"

"Can we get some waffles after we get some ass?" - Aunt Tiffany Freeman

Quote from: Hamdsome 1 on September 05, 2023, 06:43:26 pmSTHU. I get in more steps per day, at work, than you could possibly fathom.
The only down time my legs see is when seated in 1st Class.

hog.goblin

Quote from: MuskogeeHogFan on June 17, 2017, 08:12:50 am
We will win at least 8.

I won't say "at least" 8, but I will say 8.  If I go game by game I get to 6, maybe 7.  But I think the defense will rebound, and if it does, we win 8 games in the regular season.

If the defense doesn't rebound, 6 wins is a real possibility and then 2018 is the hot seat season.

I like CBB.  I think in-game adjustments and recruiting have been his weaknesses.  Preparation and player development have been his strengths.

I hope year 5 is a big step in a new trend of 8 - 10 wins a year.

010HogFan

Quote from: rhames on June 21, 2017, 11:30:40 am

I was wrong about that. I still don't think, in a numbers sense, just because the hogs have a higher probability in 5 games that the FPi  is only predicting 5 wins. It isn't. The likeliest outcome given all the data as of now is 6 wins. 


I guess that was the point I was trying to make. I'm just not good at it haha.

I'm sure it is a better metric than I understand or realize, I think I just don't like it because it doesn't like us LOL

MuskogeeHogFan

Quote from: rhames on June 21, 2017, 11:30:40 am

I was wrong about that. I still don't think, in a numbers sense, just because the hogs have a higher probability in 5 games that the FPi  is only predicting 5 wins. It isn't. The likeliest outcome given all the data as of now is 6 wins. 


I guess that was the point I was trying to make. I'm just not good at it haha.

Well we don't need the FPI to tell us that the Hogs are projected to win 6 games, heck the entire national sports media is and has been projecting only 6 wins...it's the "safe space" for the media. And you know why? Because everything is so doggone difficult to predict about Arkansas. See what I posted above and this came from Phil Steele's predictions of the Hogs, a guy who usually is pretty right most of the time.

Quote from: MuskogeeHogFan on June 21, 2017, 10:13:42 am
Speaking of Phil Steele, his prediction for Arkansas last year was anywhere from 5-7 to 9-3. Too many variables. Prior to 2015 he had us as a #22 pre season pick and suggested us as a contender in the SEC West but also picked us to come in at #5 in the West. Prior to 2014 he had us picked last in the SEC West. Prior to the 2013 season he also had us at #5 in the West and projected the Hogs to be one of his most improved teams over 2012.

I say all of that just to make the point that we still seem to have a lot of lingering questions that need to be answered about this team and a case could be made that we could theoretically go 5-7 just as there is a case to be made that we could go 9-3 or 10-2. There just remains too many variables for anyone to check out on the Hogs as being a loser at this point of the summer, just as there are too many variables at this point for anyone to lock us in as winning 9-10 games. If everything goes just right we might be that team that surprises the FPI by winning 4 or 5 more than their "probability" indicates, or we might go the other way and end up a loss or two under their most recent projection. I know which I am hoping for but I wouldn't run to the Bookie and put any money on it.

The last 4 years we have been almost impossible to predict. Heck I can see how we very well could have won 9, 10 and 10 in the last three seasons. But man, those variables get you every time.

I feel confident that we "should" win at least 8 this year, maybe more. But if those darned negative variables come into play again this year, it is anyone's guess how we end up. On the other hand if the variables end up being on the positive side we might win 9 (we need to) and maybe more. Who knows? We're all shooting craps this time of year with our projections and the media (outside of Arkansas) may know less than we do.
Go Hogs Go!

rhames

Quote from: 010HogFan on June 21, 2017, 11:38:46 am
I'm sure it is a better metric than I understand or realize, I think I just don't like it because it doesn't like us LOL


That's a fair point.

I hope we make it look like a damn fool this year.
"I'm too drunk to taste this chicken"

"Can we get some waffles after we get some ass?" - Aunt Tiffany Freeman

Quote from: Hamdsome 1 on September 05, 2023, 06:43:26 pmSTHU. I get in more steps per day, at work, than you could possibly fathom.
The only down time my legs see is when seated in 1st Class.

ICEman

Quote from: Al Boarland on June 21, 2017, 02:04:23 am
Times have changed. If you don't think we are at a geapgeaphical disadvantage recruiting I don't know what to tell you.

It's a fact.
You are not going to pull football players from areas where the football is in the shape of a truncated icosahedron therefore the Ireland and the South African reference is non-applicable.
"College football is a sport that bears the same relation to education that bullfighting does to agriculture."

HoopS

I can see how they'd get that. 6-6 was my first guess when I looked at our schedule.

Youngsta71701

Quote from: gchamblee on June 21, 2017, 10:05:19 am
It's easier to get to a cornfield in Nebraska as well, but that doesn't make me want to go hang out there.
Good point but getting there is no biggy. That excuse if gone out the window.
"The more things change the more they stay the same"

Redhogs

Quote from: Youngsta71701 on June 17, 2017, 07:03:06 am
According to ESPN we're headed for a disappointing 5-7 season. Wow!
The posts in this thread just show how far the expections of success have fallen for this program under CBB.......very sad. We really have become a lower tier SEC program.
Will I live long enough to see us win again? Will any of us?

Al Boarland

Quote from: Redhogs on June 21, 2017, 01:40:46 pm
The posts in this thread just show how far the expections of success have fallen for this program under CBB.......very sad. We really have become a lower tier SEC program.

https://twitter.com/finebaum/status/877611360607195137

010HogFan

Quote from: Al Boarland on June 21, 2017, 02:47:13 pm
https://twitter.com/finebaum/status/877611360607195137

LMAO how in the world is this a worse job than Ole Miss? There's just no way that is true, I don't care who is ranking em. I could see South Carolina, but Ole Miss in their current state is bottom of the barrel

MJ2

Petrino won 21 games at Arkansas in a 2 year span.   Just think about that.   It doesn't seem possible now, but it happened and not too long ago.   The right coach can make things happen anywhere.

Al Boarland

Quote from: 010HogFan on June 21, 2017, 03:14:06 pm
LMAO how in the world is this a worse job than Ole Miss? There's just no way that is true, I don't care who is ranking em. I could see South Carolina, but Ole Miss in their current state is bottom of the barrel

Access to talent is a primary factor in these rankings.

Hogwild

Quote from: 010HogFan on June 21, 2017, 03:14:06 pm
LMAO how in the world is this a worse job than Ole Miss? There's just no way that is true, I don't care who is ranking em. I could see South Carolina, but Ole Miss in their current state is bottom of the barrel

Quote
8    Rebels

This marks the beginning of the third-tier. To be completely honest, though, I feel like Ole Miss can be a tier unto itself because the difference between the third and fourth tiers isn't that great. That's not to say there aren't plenty of valid arguments to having some of the schools beneath it ranked higher, but personally, I'd rather have the gig in Oxford over any of the other remaining options.

EastexHawg

Quote from: gchamblee on June 21, 2017, 10:05:19 am
It's easier to get to a cornfield in Nebraska as well, but that doesn't make me want to go hang out there.

Nebraska brings up a good point.  The state is rural and has never produced a huge amount of D-1 ready talent.  It also has a very small African-American population.

Yet when the Nebraska had two consecutive great football coaches, Bob Devaney and Tom Osborne, they were consistently a top ten program and won something like five national championships.  Osborne's great mid-90s teams especially delighted in beating the snot out of SEC programs in national championship games.

And then...almost as soon as Osborne retired Nebraska fell from perennial power to mediocre, with good seasons mixed in now and then.  What changed other than coaching?

Hogwild

Quote from: EastexHawg on June 21, 2017, 03:58:43 pm
Nebraska brings up a good point.  The state is rural and has never produced a huge amount of D-1 ready talent.  It also has a very small African-American population.

Yet when the Nebraska had two consecutive great football coaches, Bob Devaney and Tom Osborne, they were consistently a top ten program and won something like five national championships.  Osborne's great mid-90s teams especially delighted in beating the snot out of SEC programs in national championship games.

And then...almost as soon as Osborne retired Nebraska fell from perennial power to mediocre, with good seasons mixed in now and then.  What changed other than coaching?

their conference

They were solid under Frank Solich, the went to crap after they fired him and hired Bill Callahan

EastexHawg

Quote from: Hogwild on June 21, 2017, 04:04:58 pm
their conference

They were solid under Frank Solich, the went to crap after they fired him and hired Bill Callahan

In four of the five bowl games in which Nebraska won national championships, the results were:

Nebraska 17, LSU 12, 1971 Orange Bowl
Nebraska 38, Alabama 6, 1972 Orange Bowl.  That Alabama team was 11-0 and had given up an average of 6.4 points per game in SEC play
Nebraska 62, Florida 24, 1996 Fiesta Bowl.  Florida was undefeated and ranked #1, having beaten 9 SEC opponents by a combined score of 396-136
Nebraska 42, Tennessee 17, 1998 Orange Bowl

That's a composite score of 159-59 against four SEC champions who had lost a combine ONE CONFERENCE GAME between them, an average score of 40-15.  In addition to those national championship games, Nebraska played five more SEC opponents in bowl games between 1970 and 1997...their first and last national titles...and went 5-0 in those games.

9-0 against the SEC in bowl games.

I don't think it mattered to Devaney's and Osborne's Nebraska teams which conference they played in.

Hogwild

Quote from: rhames on June 21, 2017, 10:35:22 am

That's not what it means though. It isn't a prediction.


If you flip a coin 2 times and it lands on heads the probability of the third time it landing on heads in a row is 12.5%


So if it's heads a third time does that mean the probability was wrong? Not in the slightest. It's all about reading data the correct way.

If you flip a coin 2 times and it lands on heads the probability of the third time in landing on heads in 50% not 12.5%
The third flip isn't influenced by the fact that the first two flips were heads.

EastexHawg

One more note on Nebraska...as far as I can tell they played six regular season games against SEC teams during the 1970-1997 time period.  They went 4-1-1 in those games, losing only to Bear Bryant's 1978 national champion Alabama team.

They were 2-0 against Auburn, 1-0-1 against LSU, and 1-1 against Alabama.  Notice they weren't scheduling Vanderbilt or Mississippi State.

13-1-1 against the best teams in the SEC.  Nuff said.

Hogwild

Nebraska was really good, no arguing that.  You asked what changed other than their coaches, I pointed out that they are in a different conference now.  Not sure what the SEC has to do with any of that.

12247

OK, so if you will go back far enough, a Nebraska team assisted us the our only NC by losing to us 10-7 in the Cotton Bowl.

12247

What would anyone guess that Vegas would offer as odds that Arkansas would beat
TCU and A&M this season.  I would bet the odds are very low that we win both based on past performance versus quality of those 2 teams.  If we could pull that off, I like our chances for 8 wins in regular season.