Need 3 to get off bubble

[hawginbigd1]

Doesn't matter who it is or where they are, just need 3 IMO. Have to win 2 to have a chance, 3 locks it in. Would love to see us win 4 or 5 to get us out of the 9 spot.

[Hoggish1]

Thanks, Joe...

[hawginbigd1]

Thanks, Joe...

That's fighting words and there was absolutely 0 misspelled werds!

[lynbug]

Doesn't matter who it is or where they are, just need 3 IMO. Have to win 2 to have a chance, 3 locks it in. Would love to see us win 4 or 5 to get us out of the 9 spot.

I hate that 8-9 matchup.  Listen to me....a few games ago I was lamenting  no post-season possibilities.  Now I'm complaining about an 8 or 9 seed.  Such is Hogball

[Hooch]

4 is the comfortable number we may get in finishing with 3 but it leaves a lot to chance.

2-2 rest of way in regular season likely puts us in 5 spot in sec tourney. That does us no favors, gives us a bad team 2nd round of tourney then Bama in rd 3, win that and we are in that would be 24-9.

3-1 rest of the way in regular season  and lose the first game of tourney we are either going to Dayton or Bud Walton for the NIT.

3-1 and win first day of sec and in no doubt.

4-0 and win first day of sec and probably get out of the 8/9 game.

[HawgnCorona]

4 is the comfortable number we may get in finishing with 3 but it leaves a lot to chance.

2-2 rest of way in regular season likely puts us in 5 spot in sec tourney. That does us no favors, gives us a bad team 2nd round of tourney then Bama in rd 3, win that and we are in that would be 24-9.

3-1 rest of the way in regular season  and lose the first game of tourney we are either going to Dayton or Bud Walton for the NIT.

3-1 and win first day of sec and in no doubt.

4-0 and win first day of sec and probably get out of the 8/9 game.

I still say 24 is a safe bet...

[MikePiazza]

I think 23 wins is the number to get to.

23-9 or 23-10 gets them a 10 or 11 seed.

Anything better improves their seeding. At 24-9 they're probably a 8 or 9, at 25-9 they're probably a 7 and 26-9 or 26-8 they're probably a 6.

[daprospecta]

I hate that 8-9 matchup.  Listen to me....a few games ago I was lamenting  no post-season possibilities.  Now I'm complaining about an 8 or 9 seed.  Such is Hogball

There are very few teams I would be worried about facing this year including 1 seeds.

I still say 24 is a safe bet...

That was the case before we had a top 25 road win.  I think two more gets us in........barely but three more means we don't sweat at all.

[Hooch]

I still say 24 is a safe bet...

Exactly what I said.

[Hooch]

I think 23 wins is the number to get to.

23-9 or 23-10 gets them a 10 or 11 seed.

Anything better improves their seeding. At 24-9 they're probably a 8 or 9, at 25-9 they're probably a 7 and 26-9 or 26-8 they're probably a 6.

23 with a win at Florida is the only way. No way we get in if we beat a&M and Georgia lose to Florida and Auburn. Then a crappy team in sec tounrney.

[MikePiazza]

23 with a win at Florida is the only way. No way we get in if we beat a&M and Georgia lose to Florida and Auburn. Then a crappy team in sec tounrney.

They beat A&M and Auburn, they can lose to Florida and UGA and still finish fourth, and lose to Alabama on Friday at SECT and still get in. They'd basically be Tennessee from 2014, and that Vols team was a possession away from the Elite Eight that year.

[Hooch]

They beat A&M and Auburn, they can lose to Florida and UGA and still finish fourth, and lose to Alabama on Friday at SECT and still get in. They'd basically be Tennessee from 2014, and that Vols team was a possession away from the Elite Eight that year.

That puts them 22-10 no way they are getting in losing 3 of 5 and 5 of 10 in last 10. Also if they go 2-2 in reg they will be 5 seed in sec not 4.

[daprospecta]

That puts them 22-10 no way they are getting in losing 3 of 5 and 5 of 10 in last 10. Also if they go 2-2 in reg they will be 5 seed in sec not 4.

Hooch, the bubble is very very very soft this year. Auburn and Alabama are still considered bubble teams..................let that sink in.   In most years, that would be the case but not this year.

[Hooch]

Hooch, the bubble is very very very soft this year. Auburn and Alabama are still considered bubble teams..................let that sink in.   In most years, that would be the case but not this year.

Daprospecta, Auburn and Alabama are still considered bubble teams just as Arkansas is still considered one. However both of those have much softer schedules and we will have to play both. Let that sink in.

[Letsroll1200]

Daprospecta, Auburn and Alabama are still considered bubble teams just as Arkansas is still considered one. However both of those have much softer schedules and we will have to play both. Let that sink in.

Don't have to play Bama in the regular season. Already destroyed them.

[MikePiazza]

Tennessee was 21-12 in 2014 and got in, with a RPI similar to ours.

[Raymond Zorback]

23 with a win at Florida is the only way. No way we get in if we beat a&M and Georgia lose to Florida and Auburn. Then a crappy team in sec tounrney.

TeamRankings currently gives us a 70% chance to make it with 22 wins, 91% with 23.

In your above scenario, if we assume that the SEC tournament loss is Bama, our RPI would be about 36 according to RPI Wizard.  That's a lock in a major conference.

[Hooch]

Don't have to play Bama in the regular season. Already destroyed them.

We will in tourney.

[Hooch]

TeamRankings currently gives us a 70% chance to make it with 22 wins, 91% with 23.

In your above scenario, if we assume that the SEC tournament loss is Bama, our RPI would be about 36 according to RPI Wizard.  That's a lock in a major conference.

What if we assume our loss is to mizzou in sec tourney?

4 is safe 3 is sweating just like I said.

[Letsroll1200]

We will in tourney.

Bama has to beat Mizzou or LSU!! The SEC is crazy I'm not counting anything. Let's beat A&M!!

[Raymond Zorback]

What if we assume our loss is to mizzou in sec tourney?

4 is safe 3 is sweating just like I said.

RPI would be 46.  Not sure why you would assume that though.  It's not like Mizzou has our number or something.  Plus they'll have to play on the first day. 

[Hooch]

RPI would be 46.  Not sure why you would assume that though.  It's not like Mizzou has our number or something.  Plus they'll have to play on the first day.

They have beat us! 46 RPI and 22 wins puts us out unquestionably not to mention 2 losses to a 200+ rpi team.

Like I said 4 is safe 3 we sweat and 2 we are done.

[Raymond Zorback]

They have beat us! 46 RPI and 22 wins puts us out unquestionably not to mention 2 losses to a 200+ rpi team.

Like I said 4 is safe 3 we sweat and 2 we are done.

We've beat them too! 

[Hooch]

We've beat them too!

No doubt my point is still the same. 4 is safe, 3 we are arguing scenarios and 2 we are in trouble.

[SPAL]

No doubt my point is still the same. 4 is safe, 3 we are arguing scenarios and 2 we are in trouble.

Depends on which games we win...

Win the remaining home games and lose  our remaining road games and we are in. As long as we dont lose to an Inept team in the SECT.

If we drop a home game and dont offset it with a win at Florida, we may be sweating .

[Pig in the Pokey]

Doesn't matter who it is or where they are, just need 3 IMO. Have to win 2 to have a chance, 3 locks it in. Would love to see us win 4 or 5 to get us out of the 9 spot.

two more anfd we are in if one of them is Florida. But we'll win all 4.

[GuvHog]

We will in tourney.

That depends. If South Carolina Loses to Florida and the Hogs win out, the Hogs get the 3 seed, while Bama and South Carolina would finish 4 & 5. That would put Bama and SC in the bracket with UK and the Hogs would not have to play them.

[VirginiaHog]

SC will lose at Florida Tuesday. We beat Aggies Wed we will be in 3rd.

[biglewhog77]

I think you right or just go undefeated the rest of the way

[Dominicanhog]

I think 23 wins is the number to get to.

yep.. same number it always was.......doesn't matter who or when...

[PonderinHog]

Quantity, with a little quality thrown in at the last.

[rljjr]

HOGS: A&M, Auburn, Florida, Georgia (Florida and Georgia will be tough outs)

USC-E: Florida, Tennessee, Mississippi St., Ole Miss (Florida is a tough matchup. Ole Miss should win)

BAMA: Georgia, A&M, Ole Miss, Tennessee  (Easiest schedule of the group)

As we know, anything can happen in SEC BB, but from the schedule, and with the way USC-E is imploding, we can not only end even with their record, but pass them. Bama is the real competition for seeding, and while they have the statistically easiest schedule left, Georgia will be hard for them to win and Tenner plays them well.

We have a tough test with the Ags based on our first game with them. Ags are 5-5 in their last 10. Hogs are 7-3 (includes 2 horrific losses). Auburn just isn't quite there yet. Florida is 7-1 at home (they've played a huge number of natural site games). Georgia is playing tough ball and will be a tough out, so the crowd is going to have to bring it.

Looks tough, but we can finish in 3rd by ourselves if all goes well, or 5th if SC corrects course and we go 2-2 and Bama 3-1.

Going to be an exciting finish! WPS.

[hawginbigd1]

What if we assume our loss is to mizzou in sec tourney?

4 is safe 3 is sweating just like I said.

You can keep saying it, doesn't make it true! 2 is sweating, 3 is a lock, just like the predictive models say. 23 is the number because of RPI and SOS.

[Hooch]

That depends. If South Carolina Loses to Florida and the Hogs win out, the Hogs get the 3 seed, while Bama and South Carolina would finish 4 & 5. That would put Bama and SC in the bracket with UK and the Hogs would not have to play them.

You are missing the whole point as usual. If we go 4-0 it doesn't matter if we play them again.

[jry04]

I have been saying this for 3 weeks now, yet people kept saying "have to win out" or "have to beat both UF and USC." Palm, Lunardi, Parrish, Rothstein, and anyone else who has done radio in Arkansas in the last week or two has said we will get in just by winning the games we are supposed to down the stretch. They said 22 wins is likely enough, but 23 is a lock. The bubble is awful.

As of today, Arkansas has wins over the follow teams in the RPI:
(50) Vandy
(49) Tennessee
(36) UTA
(30) USC

We also have 9 or 10 total top 100 wins. We will finish with a top 35 rpi with 23 wins. That gets you in 100% of the time as a major conference team.

[mbgrulz]

If we get to 23 Ws we're a lock. 22 Ws and we're a pretty good bet. Seems like our fanbase thinks less of our team than 90% of the nation.

Too many of you have no clue WTH you're talking about, or are over using South Carolina's situation last year. That is a false equivalency due to SOS and RPI differences.

[Rainmaker203]

However we get there, 23 wins should be good enough to make it in the tournament.  As with any year though, this is a fluid situation, so what is true right now may not be true in 2 weeks.

One thing people typically forget to consider is that the bubble always strengthens the final week of the season.  Every single year people talk about how "this year's bubble is the weakest ever", then on the final week it turns back into a normal bubble.  A few bubble teams always make runs in their tournaments and move up the ladder, and 2-3 bids get stolen by teams not in the field that win their conference tournament and take the auto-bid.  The last 4 teams in going into the final week, without exception, end up in the NIT if they fail to make deep runs in their conference tournaments.

[lynbug]

I have been saying this for 3 weeks now, yet people kept saying "have to win out" or "have to beat both UF and USC." Palm, Lunardi, Parrish, Rothstein, and anyone else who has done radio in Arkansas in the last week or two has said we will get in just by winning the games we are supposed to down the stretch. They said 22 wins is likely enough, but 23 is a lock. The bubble is awful.

As of today, Arkansas has wins over the follow teams in the RPI:
(50) Vandy
(49) Tennessee
(36) UTA
(30) USC

We also have 9 or 10 total top 100 wins. We will finish with a top 35 rpi with 23 wins. That gets you in 100% of the time as a major conference team.

But is we lay a goose egg in the SEC tourney......that kinda messes up the picture.

[Rome26]

HOGS: A&M, Auburn, Florida, Georgia (Florida and Georgia will be tough outs)

USC-E: Florida, Tennessee, Mississippi St., Ole Miss (Florida is a tough matchup. Ole Miss should win)

BAMA: Georgia, A&M, Ole Miss, Tennessee  (Easiest schedule of the group)

As we know, anything can happen in SEC BB, but from the schedule, and with the way USC-E is imploding, we can not only end even with their record, but pass them. Bama is the real competition for seeding, and while they have the statistically easiest schedule left, Georgia will be hard for them to win and Tenner plays them well.

We have a tough test with the Ags based on our first game with them. Ags are 5-5 in their last 10. Hogs are 7-3 (includes 2 horrific losses). Auburn just isn't quite there yet. Florida is 7-1 at home (they've played a huge number of natural site games). Georgia is playing tough ball and will be a tough out, so the crowd is going to have to bring it.

Looks tough, but we can finish in 3rd by ourselves if all goes well, or 5th if SC corrects course and we go 2-2 and Bama 3-1.

Going to be an exciting finish! WPS.

Florida isn't a lock for 1st or 2nd looking at there remaining schedule.

They play SC and Arkansas at home and UK and Vandy on the road. SC and Vandy both beat them before they lost their big men. I can easily see them losing 3 of the last four.

[jry04]

But is we lay a goose egg in the SEC tourney......that kinda messes up the picture.

Not really. We are likely the 4 seed if we finish with 23 wins. That means our loss is likely to Alabama, which would not really kill our RPI. If we go 22-9 and go 0-1, then you are definitely right.

[Letsroll1200]

I think this team finds away to win 3 more games prior to the SEC tournament. I'm not overly concerned with Georgia or A&M. I think the hogs can pull those games out at home simply by being more explosive on offense. I think we get a split between Florida or Auburn. Florida is still physical and fast despite the loss of their best interior player.

[hawginbigd1]

I think this team finds away to win 3 more games prior to the SEC tournament. I'm not overly concerned with Georgia or A&M. I think the hogs can pull those games out at home simply by being more explosive on offense. I think we get a split between Florida or Auburn. Florida is still physical and fast despite the loss of their best interior player.

Never was a huge fan, or better put he has never scared me, but JJ Frazier may be the best player in the league right now, so GA worries me. A&M is playing better and is a very talented team, but has still not put together good guard play, so without Hogg they don't worry me much. Awburn is scary because they are a 3 pt shooting team, the kind that has buried us in the past, and we have also blown out, like a Ms St, a couple times, or OM 2 years ago, where everything they throw up from deep goes in. Like I said just find 3 somewhere and we are solidly in.