Frank Martin and game prediction

[lutherheggs]

Tonight's game is going to be a textbook display on how embarrass a team. The Razorbacks are going to be stripped and clipped by the Gamecocks.

I predict a score of at least 85-60, and likely worse margin than that. 

Martin has the right coaching philosophy: defense, defense, and more defense. He has proved himself at SC, and he would be the best replacement for Anderson at U of A. In other words, he is about as good as Arkansas can attract at this point yet would be light years better than Anderson. 

[Next1_04]

Tonight's game is going to be a textbook display on how embarrass a team. The Razorbacks are going to be stripped and clipped by the Gamecocks.

I predict a score of at least 85-60, and likely worse margin than that. 

Martin has the right coaching philosophy: defense, defense, and more defense. He has proved himself at SC, and he would be the best replacement for Anderson at U of A. In other words, he is about as good as Arkansas can attract at this point yet would be light years better than Anderson. 

So the moral of the story is to cancel the game tonight, and hire Martin?

[lefty08]

Ridiculous

South Carolina is better than we are on paper, but they aren't a power by any means. Flame away Mr eggs

[code red]

So the moral of the story is to cancel the game tonight, and hire Martin?

Yes....do it

[Deep Shoat]

We lose by 15+, just like we have with every good team we have played.

[jjdlc]

So, fire a coach that has been to 1 NCAAT in 5 years (7 appearances overall) to hire a coach that has been to 0 NCAAT in 4 years (4 appearances overall).  Sounds like a recipe for firing another coach and repeating the cycle in 5 years to me.

[Atlhogfan1]

Frank has had success vs Mike with lesser teams.

Not going to predict the rollercoaster's next move.

SC is vulnerable.  201st in college basketball in offensive efficiency.  I also question if SC won't hit a wall soon here in the late season SEC grind especially after playing Bama 4OTs last week.  Thornwell has played 38, 56 and 37 minutes in their last 3 games.  They aren't as strong rebounding as they have been in recent seasons. 

Would be so Anderson to win this and come back home and lose this weekend.  Hannahs, Barford and Macon hit a dozen or more 3's, Thornwell have an off game and Hogs do enough offensively to get a win. 

On the other hand, SC is 3rd in college basketball in defensive efficiency.  Opponents are averaging 61.9 ppg at SC.  3 SEC opponents have gotten to 70+ vs SC in regulation:  UK in Rupp (85), UGa at SC in a 77-75 loss and Miss St in a 77-73 loss.  Bama scored 57 in regulation in their 4 OT win.  And Thornwell is a bad matchup. 

[ATU HOG]

I think we are so inconsistent that tonight's game we play really well on the road and it comes down to the final possessions.  I'll say 70-64 USC

[riccoar]

Well, it's a very tough next two games.  SC and Ole Miss.  Lose both and we go from 4th to 6th in the SEC with virtually no way to get back to 4th by SECT.  I think everyone knows what that means for NCAAT this year.

[daprospecta]

Tonight's game is going to be a textbook display on how embarrass a team. The Razorbacks are going to be stripped and clipped by the Gamecocks.

I predict a score of at least 85-60, and likely worse margin than that. 

Martin has the right coaching philosophy: defense, defense, and more defense. He has proved himself at SC, and he would be the best replacement for Anderson at U of A. In other words, he is about as good as Arkansas can attract at this point yet would be light years better than Anderson. 

Mike Anderson has had a better career at Arkansas than Frank Martin has had at USC-E. Don't believe me? Just watch.

2012–13   South Carolina   14–18   4–14   T–12th   
2013–14   South Carolina   14–20   5–13   13th   
2014–15   South Carolina   17–16   6–12   T–11th   
2015–16   South Carolina   25–9   11–7   T–3rd   NIT Second Round
2016–17   South Carolina   19–4   9–1   1st[10]   

Frank Martin losing seasons = 2, Mike Anderson losing seasons = 0
Frank Martin years to make the tourney and have a good year = year 5, Mike Anderson = year 4

I could go on but you get the idea.  Frank Martin, IMO, would not be an upgrade.  I would go as far as to say Mike would have not gotten a fourth year if he started like Frank Martin did at USC-E.

[Razorod]

Hogs in a major upset, 63-61.

[The OTR]

Hogs roll

WPS!!!!!!!!!!

[Biggus Piggus]

South Carolina had three consecutive losing seasons before Frank Martin took over. He received a roster that had one (1) big man. It took him a while to adapt to SEC recruiting standards (higher academic bar vs. Big 12). Not sure he has yet.

The Cocks were 4-14 in SEC play his first season, and one of those wins was a 21-point blowout of MA's Arkansas.

MA got him at BWA the next season, but Martin knocked Arkansas out of the SECT, doomed us to the NIT.

In 2015, the Hogs beat South Carolina by 20 at BWA and by 4 on the road.

Last season, Arkansas fell at home on Senior Day by 15. Really ugly game.

MA vs. Martin at Missouri

2008 - lost by 3 (road), won by 37 (home)
2009 - won by 16 (home), lost by 20 (road)
2010 - lost by 6 (road), won by 10 (home)
2011 - lost by 16 (road), won by 10 (home)

They seem to be evenly matched.

[Kevin]

also, go check out the history of usc basketball

[Biggus Piggus]

Now check out Frank Martin's record at Kansas State, a school that had not had a team go to the NCAA Tournament in 15 years when he took over, and stop embarrassing yourself.

Bob Huggins did set up K-State pretty well + hand off to Martin.

[lutherheggs]

So the moral of the story is to cancel the game tonight, and hire Martin?

Don't exaggerate. Watch the game. Watch what happens, then draw your own rational conclusion.

[LRHawg]

If they have an off night like they did against Bama, I think we have a chance. Unfortunately, I fear that game served as a wake up call and we get ran out of there. We'll see.

[lutherheggs]

Frank has had success vs Mike with lesser teams.

Not going to predict the rollercoaster's next move.

SC is vulnerable.  201st in college basketball in offensive efficiency.  I also question if SC won't hit a wall soon here in the late season SEC grind especially after playing Bama 4OTs last week.  Thornwell has played 38, 56 and 37 minutes in their last 3 games.  They aren't as strong rebounding as they have been in recent seasons. 

Would be so Anderson to win this and come back home and lose this weekend.  Hannahs, Barford and Macon hit a dozen or more 3's, Thornwell have an off game and Hogs do enough offensively to get a win. 

On the other hand, SC is 3rd in college basketball in defensive efficiency.  Opponents are averaging 61.9 ppg at SC.  3 SEC opponents have gotten to 70+ vs SC in regulation:  UK in Rupp (85), UGa at SC in a 77-75 loss and Miss St in a 77-73 loss.  Bama scored 57 in regulation in their 4 OT win.  And Thornwell is a bad matchup.

Good comment but the one error, and it is a major one, is your prediction of the Hogs hitting a bunch of 3's. They will more likely be 0 for 30 from 3 point range tonight than hit a dozen or more.

[lutherheggs]

Mike Anderson has had a better career at Arkansas than Frank Martin has had at USC-E. Don't believe me? Just watch.

2012–13   South Carolina   14–18   4–14   T–12th   
2013–14   South Carolina   14–20   5–13   13th   
2014–15   South Carolina   17–16   6–12   T–11th   
2015–16   South Carolina   25–9   11–7   T–3rd   NIT Second Round
2016–17   South Carolina   19–4   9–1   1st[10]   

Frank Martin losing seasons = 2, Mike Anderson losing seasons = 0
Frank Martin years to make the tourney and have a good year = year 5, Mike Anderson = year 4

I could go on but you get the idea.  Frank Martin, IMO, would not be an upgrade.  I would go as far as to say Mike would have not gotten a fourth year if he started like Frank Martin did at USC-E.

You totally whiffed on my point. Not looking at what they have done. Looking at where they are now. Anderson started with more at Ark than did Martin at SC. SC not exactly a basketball power ever like Ark was for 2+ decades. From your stats, Martin's trajectory is clearly STRAIGHT up while Anderson is declining after last year's record and going to miss NCAAT again this year in a very weak SEC. In other words, Martin making strides while Anderson is treading water...and putting it that way is being nice to Anderson.

[lutherheggs]

South Carolina had three consecutive losing seasons before Frank Martin took over. He received a roster that had one (1) big man. It took him a while to adapt to SEC recruiting standards (higher academic bar vs. Big 12). Not sure he has yet.

The Cocks were 4-14 in SEC play his first season, and one of those wins was a 21-point blowout of MA's Arkansas.

MA got him at BWA the next season, but Martin knocked Arkansas out of the SECT, doomed us to the NIT.

In 2015, the Hogs beat South Carolina by 20 at BWA and by 4 on the road.

Last season, Arkansas fell at home on Senior Day by 15. Really ugly game.

MA vs. Martin at Missouri

2008 - lost by 3 (road), won by 37 (home)
2009 - won by 16 (home), lost by 20 (road)
2010 - lost by 6 (road), won by 10 (home)
2011 - lost by 16 (road), won by 10 (home)

They seem to be evenly matched.

This...except for last sentence. Where they are not evenly matched is where it matters most: head coach. Again, this is going to be a very ugly loss for the Hogs. Could be a 30 pt loss. Hogs will shoot 25% from field.

[TexArkHogFan]

The only way we win this game is to stop Thornwell.  If we try to go inside, he will nail us to the floor.  Likewise if we let him run free on offense, game over. We have to hit some threes, play some defense.  That's the only way we win. 

[Jackrabbit Hog]

It'll be fairly close.  South Carolina is well coached and has a couple of very talented players, but they share some of the same characteristics of inconsistency with the Hogs.  They can go long periods without scoring.  If Thornwell is off, their scoring options are very limited.  Put this game in Bud Walton and I think the Hogs would win.  Since it's in Columbia, I'll say USCe 61, Hogs 55.

[Kevin]

It'll be fairly close.  South Carolina is well coached and has a couple of very talented players, but they share some of the same characteristics of inconsistency with the Hogs.  They can go long periods without scoring.  If Thornwell is off, their scoring options are very limited.  Put this game in Bud Walton and I think the Hogs would win.  Since it's in Columbia, I'll say USCe 61, Hogs 55.

not sure we play good enough defense, for usc to go into a drought

[hogwood]

Tonight's game is going to be a textbook display on how embarrass a team. The Razorbacks are going to be stripped and clipped by the Gamecocks.

I predict a score of at least 85-60, and likely worse margin than that. 

Martin has the right coaching philosophy: defense, defense, and more defense. He has proved himself at SC, and he would be the best replacement for Anderson at U of A. In other words, he is about as good as Arkansas can attract at this point yet would be light years better than Anderson.

A good coach, yeah. The best replacement? Not so fast there buddy.

[lutherheggs]

A good coach, yeah. The best replacement? Not so fast there buddy.

Again, I said the best replacement the U of A can likely get, assuming it is possible to hire him. U of A cannot get any top 15 or so head coach. Will be a guy like Martin or a mid-major up-n-comer.

[pigroots]

We will get pounded on the boards. We lose in a close one if we shoot a decent percentage. We get blown out if we shoot poorly. They play good defense so I expect the latter. 75-60 sounds about right

[Jackrabbit Hog]

not sure we play good enough defense, for usc to go into a drought

With some teams, it's not the opponent's defense that causes the drought.  It's your own offensive ineptitude.  And I think South Carolina has a dab of that in them.

[Kevin]

With some teams, it's not the opponent's defense that causes the drought.  It's your own offensive ineptitude.  And I think South Carolina has a dab of that in them.

agree, but if they are getting lay-ups & dunks, no drought

[rude1]

You totally whiffed on my point. Not looking at what they have done. Looking at where they are now. Anderson started with more at Ark than did Martin at SC. SC not exactly a basketball power ever like Ark was for 2+ decades. From your stats, Martin's trajectory is clearly STRAIGHT up while Anderson is declining after last year's record and going to miss NCAAT again this year in a very weak SEC. In other words, Martin making strides while Anderson is treading water...and putting it that way is being nice to Anderson.

It's amazing the blinders put on for Frank Martin, he is headed to his first tourney this year and with the seniors he losses off that team he isn't likely to have back to back tourney visits, that's 1 in 6 gang, the same thing that has us frustrated,  but yet I keep reading how good of a coach he is. He has done no better and it could be argued not as good as Mike Anderson!!!!

[GuvHog]

It's amazing the blinders put on for Frank Martin, he is headed to his first tourney this year and with the seniors he losses off that team he isn't likely to have back to back tourney visits, that's 1 in 6 gang, the same thing that has us frustrated,  but yet I keep reading how good of a coach he is. He has done no better and it could be argued not as good as Mike Anderson!!!!

Frank's tenure at Kansas state tells a different story. Besides, Frank inherited a true dumpster fire at South Carolina while Mike inherited a Hog program that was on the upswing.

[jjdlc]

It's amazing the blinders put on for Frank Martin, he is headed to his first tourney this year and with the seniors he losses off that team he isn't likely to have back to back tourney visits, that's 1 in 6 gang, the same thing that has us frustrated,  but yet I keep reading how good of a coach he is. He has done no better and it could be argued not as good as Mike Anderson!!!!

Exactly, I don't get the love for Martin by some on here.  At best, he's on par with CMA as a coach.  If we are going to hire a new coach, I would hope we would be looking for something better, not equal.

[jjdlc]

Frank's tenure at Kansas state tells a different story. Besides, Frank inherited a true dumpster fire at South Carolina while Mike inherited a Hog program that was on the upswing.

Please tell me how Arkansas was on an upswing when CMA took over, please! 

[GuvHog]

Please tell me how Arkansas was on an upswing when CMA took over, please! 

Pel's last team won 18 games and received an NIT bid (the U of A turned it down).

Pel had cleaned up the APR problems  to the point that the Hogs only lost 1 scholarship later rather than multiple scholarships.

Pel had a top 10 recruiting class headed to campus for the next season.

[The real Hogules]

USC-E will dominate on the boards and spend a LOT of time shooting free throws.
Luckily for our Hogs the Gamecocks haven't been hitting on all cylinders lately, so maybe the score will be close enough not to embarrass us too bad.

[razorpimp]

It'll be fairly close.  South Carolina is well coached and has a couple of very talented players, but they share some of the same characteristics of inconsistency with the Hogs.  They can go long periods without scoring.  If Thornwell is off, their scoring options are very limited.  Put this game in Bud Walton and I think the Hogs would win.  Since it's in Columbia, I'll say USCe 61, Hogs 55.

Difference is Defense is very rarely inconsistent....SC plays D we do not

[jjdlc]

Pel's last team won 18 games and received an NIT bid (the U of A turned it down).

Pel had cleaned up the APR problems  to the point that the Hogs only lost 1 scholarship later rather than multiple scholarships.

Pel had a top 10 recruiting class headed to campus for the next season.

We were also 7-9 in conference, it was Pel's first year with a winning (barely) record since his first.  I honestly have no idea how we ended up with a NIT invite with that record. 

The APR was better, but we weren't out of the woods by any means, it limited CMA on what he could do roster wise early on.

That top 10 class turned out to be massively overrated. 

I might go as far as to say the pendulum was starting to swing back our direction, but I would hardly call it an upswing.  Nothing about SCs situation was that much worse than what CMA inherited.

[phadedhawg]

The Razorbacks are too unpredictable to make a game prediction.  They could lose by 20 or lose by 5.  Who knows?

I know I have very little confidence in our team but I will be cheering them on and hoping for the best.  Will have to watch the game on a delay due to such an early start time.

[FATHAWG08]

SC will shoot 30 plus free throws tonight if we don't adjust our defense. The majority of our stupid fouls will be from mid court to the top of the key. SC will take advantage of  Moses when he  follows his man to the top of the key where SC  will set a screen,Moses will switch to guarding the Guard,he will either foul or the SC big man will have a mismatch down low. If we correct this and not foul anyone who is 20 plus feet from the basket , eliminate the silly fouls, play the best defense of the year then  we might have a chance at the end of the game.

[Youngsta71701]

On the other hand, SC is 3rd in college basketball in defensive efficiency.  Opponents are averaging 61.9 ppg at SC.  3 SEC opponents have gotten to 70+ vs SC in regulation:  UK in Rupp (85), UGa at SC in a 77-75 loss and Miss St in a 77-73 loss.  Bama scored 57 in regulation in their 4 OT win.  And Thornwell is a bad matchup.

Let's not forget Alabama was pretty good on defense also and we did pretty good against them.

[Tusks]

There's a lot to discuss and argue about in Jump Ball but FM vs MA isn't one of them.  There too close to call.  I don't think FM would do any better than MA on the hill, just don't think he's 'the guy'.

Like many said, FM won't make the tourney next year so that's 1-5 years.  Very comparable to MA.

There's many many better options out there.

[RzRbAcK18]

I'm not going to pick against my hogs but if I had to bet money I would say we shoot less than 30% from the field in the first half. Down by at least 15 at the break. Have at least one 5 minute scoring drought. Play well in the 2nd half lose by 10.

[DeltaBoy]

Toss up game tonite but I am pulling hard for the Hogs .

[Letsroll1200]

Arkansas 70 South Carolina 66

[HF#1]

If we play like it is a must win game, we will have a chance to win. If we play like it is a regular road game, we will get blown out.

[Dominicanhog]

  I would go as far as to say Mike would have not gotten a fourth year if he started like Frank Martin did at USC-E.

[Dominicanhog]

83-74 bad guys....... :razorback:

[Hoggish1]

Frank has had success vs Mike with lesser teams.

Not going to predict the rollercoaster's next move.

SC is vulnerable.  201st in college basketball in offensive efficiency.  I also question if SC won't hit a wall soon here in the late season SEC grind especially after playing Bama 4OTs last week.  Thornwell has played 38, 56 and 37 minutes in their last 3 games.  They aren't as strong rebounding as they have been in recent seasons. 

Would be so Anderson to win this and come back home and lose this weekend.  Hannahs, Barford and Macon hit a dozen or more 3's, Thornwell have an off game and Hogs do enough offensively to get a win. 

On the other hand, SC is 3rd in college basketball in defensive efficiency.  Opponents are averaging 61.9 ppg at SC.  3 SEC opponents have gotten to 70+ vs SC in regulation:  UK in Rupp (85), UGa at SC in a 77-75 loss and Miss St in a 77-73 loss.  Bama scored 57 in regulation in their 4 OT win.  And Thornwell is a bad matchup. 

So, on the other hand, you said nothing. 

I do agree, however, that anything is possible tonight and has no bearing on this weekend whatever happens tonight.  That is how unpredictable we are.

[Atlhogfan1]

So, on the other hand, you said nothing. 

I do agree, however, that anything is possible tonight and has no bearing on this weekend whatever happens tonight.  That is how unpredictable we are.

I'm aware.

Not going to predict the rollercoaster's next move. 

[hogsanity]

As always, the Hogs could win a tight one on the road, they could also get blown out.

Regardless of winner, this could be a very ugly game with dozens of free throws.

[RazorPiggie]

Bob Huggins did set up K-State pretty well + hand off to Martin.

Wasn't Huggins only there a year?