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Which team do you see Arkansas pulling off an upset on this season?

Started by Ben, June 15, 2017, 03:43:31 pm

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Al Boarland

Quote from: 870hogfan on June 20, 2017, 11:53:59 am



How are we a 8 point dog to a team we beat last year and it's a home game? Arkansas will be 4-0.

Probably because they think the team playing away that lost last year is better.


WilsonHog

There are quite a few variables that go into trying to answer this question due to the lack of consistency we have displayed the last few seasons and how quickly we pick up the elements of running the 3-4 in game conditions. If past seasons under Bret are any indication, there will be some games when we look like we could challenge Bama for the SEC West and some games where we look like the worst team in the division.

At this point, I don't consider wins over TCU, Texas A&M, South Carolina, Ole Miss, Missouri, or Mississippi State to be upsets.

So, will it be...

Alabama? Uh, no.

Auburn? Could be; it is at home and we should want some payback after getting our collective d*ck knocked in the dirt last year, but ol' Gus does love to beat our ass.

LSU? Depends on the Orgeron Factor. If he has them ready, we lose based on talent alone.

By the way, this does not mean I think we'll go 9-3. I think we SHOULD, but I think we'll piss at least one away somewhere.

 

kp72204

Quote from: hogcard1964 on June 18, 2017, 12:00:40 pm
Missouri

Right now we're their little sister.

LMAO!!!!!!! I'm beginning to agree with your assessment. Well played sir, well played ;D

Boss Hog in the Arkansas

Quote from: WilsonHog on June 20, 2017, 12:50:35 pm
There are quite a few variables that go into trying to answer this question due to the lack of consistency we have displayed the last few seasons and how quickly we pick up the elements of running the 3-4 in game conditions. If past seasons under Bret are any indication, there will be some games when we look like we could challenge Bama for the SEC West and some games where we look like the worst team in the division.

At this point, I don't consider wins over TCU, Texas A&M, South Carolina, Ole Miss, Missouri, or Mississippi State to be upsets.

So, will it be...

Alabama? Uh, no.

Auburn? Could be; it is at home and we should want some payback after getting our collective d*ck knocked in the dirt last year, but ol' Gus does love to beat our ass.

LSU? Depends on the Orgeron Factor. If he has them ready, we lose based on talent alone.

By the way, this does not mean I think we'll go 9-3. I think we SHOULD, but I think we'll piss at least one away somewhere.
Exactly. Weve done pretty well against LSU as of late so I don't see that as an upset either. Auburn will only be an upset because the media has hyped them up all offseason. Bama is the only upset we could go for. The others are just good wins
That's right, you don't want to be the man to replace the man.  You want to be the man to replace Rory Segrest.

DLUXHOG

Quote from: gchamblee on June 15, 2017, 04:39:13 pm
"Which team do you see Arkansas pulling off an upset on this season?"

Alabama.....  Hogs are due........
"Don't go in anyplace you'd be ashamed to die in..."
(you might get this someday)

MuskogeeHogFan

Quote from: Boss Hog in the Arkansas on June 20, 2017, 01:16:52 pm
Exactly. Weve done pretty well against LSU as of late so I don't see that as an upset either. Auburn will only be an upset because the media has hyped them up all offseason. Bama is the only upset we could go for. The others are just good wins

A part of the variable that will dictate whether a win over any team on our schedule will be upset is a) what they have done with their schedule prior to facing us and b) what we have done with our schedule. For instance, take Texas A&M. If they blow out UCLA in their opener and just drum the next two smaller teams they face (Nichols State and La-Lafayette), even if we win our first two (Florida A&M & TCU), A&M will probably still be favored and considering our record of late against them, beating them would probably be considered an upset, whether we consider it to be so or not.
Go Hogs Go!

redleg

Quote from: Al Boarland on June 20, 2017, 11:51:08 am
How do you come up with the Hogs should be 4-0? We're like an 8 point dog to TCU. We could be 4-0, but should be is a stretch.
TCU lost plenty of starters, especially on defense, and the game is in Fayetteville. That betting line will change between now and Sept 9. I also believe that Arkansas beats A&M this year. All of that equals 4-0. Make it 5-0 headed to Tuscaloosa for our first loss.
If it ain't broke, fix it till it is.

Wildhog

Quote from: redleg on June 20, 2017, 02:54:03 pm
TCU lost plenty of starters, especially on defense, and the game is in Fayetteville. That betting line will change between now and Sept 9. I also believe that Arkansas beats A&M this year. All of that equals 4-0. Make it 5-0 headed to Tuscaloosa for our first loss.

What makes you believe we'll beat TAMU?
Arkansas Razorbacks Football National Championships:
1909/1964/1965/1977

redleg

Quote from: Wildhog on June 20, 2017, 11:56:26 am
We were supposed to start out 3-0 in 2015 against UTEP, Toledo, and Texas Tech.

Went 1-2.
What the hell does 2015 have to do with 2017?  ???
If it ain't broke, fix it till it is.

redleg

Quote from: Wildhog on June 20, 2017, 02:54:38 pm
What makes you believe we'll beat TAMU?
A feeling...and the Hogs are due.
Plus, A&M also lost a ton of talent on both sides of the ball. The Aggies are not Alabama, they don't have the horse's to just lose a highly ranked player and then say "Next" like the Tide do.
If it ain't broke, fix it till it is.

Wildhog

Quote from: redleg on June 20, 2017, 02:56:22 pm
What the hell does 2015 have to do with 2017?  ???

Just saying I'd be careful stating something like "Arkansas will be 4-0" as if it's a fact.
Arkansas Razorbacks Football National Championships:
1909/1964/1965/1977

redleg

If it ain't broke, fix it till it is.

Wildhog

Quote from: redleg on June 20, 2017, 02:59:30 pm
They'll be 5-0 after the Carolina game.

Can I write it down, book it, and take it to the bank?
Arkansas Razorbacks Football National Championships:
1909/1964/1965/1977

 

Jborohog09

Quote from: redleg on June 20, 2017, 02:54:03 pm
TCU lost plenty of starters, especially on defense, and the game is in Fayetteville. That betting line will change between now and Sept 9. I also believe that Arkansas beats A&M this year. All of that equals 4-0. Make it 5-0 headed to Tuscaloosa for our first loss.

TCU brings back 17 starters.

GuvHog

Quote from: Jborohog09 on June 20, 2017, 03:03:31 pm
TCU brings back 17 starters.

They returned 9 starters on Defense last year so most of the returning starters must be on offense.
Bleeding Razorback Red Since Birth!!!

MuskogeeHogFan

Quote from: Jborohog09 on June 20, 2017, 03:03:31 pm
TCU brings back 17 starters.

TCU isn't going to be a pushover at all. They do lose most of their starting D-Line, but return both LB's and most of their Secondary on defense.

They return all but one of their starting O-Linemen, both TE's, most of their WR's and all of their starts from last year at RB along with their QB, Kenny Hill.

This won't be a "gimmee" game, but we stand more to lose if we lose than if we win. If we lose it will be "an SEC team loses to a Big 12 team that finished 6-7 last year". If we win, it will be, "Arkansas wins one that they should have won".

I suspect that this will be a barn-burner of a game right down to the end even if it is played in RRS.
Go Hogs Go!

PonderinHog

Quote from: Wildhog on June 20, 2017, 03:03:04 pm
Can I write it down, book it, and take it to the bank?
Bet the house and your kid's college fund.

Al Boarland

Quote from: redleg on June 20, 2017, 02:58:32 pm
A feeling...and the Hogs are due.
Plus, A&M also lost a ton of talent on both sides of the ball. The Aggies are not Alabama, they don't have the horse's to just lose a highly ranked player and then say "Next" like the Tide do.

Common hogville reasons...

-We're due
-They beat us so bad last year we will play harder
-New mindset
-Everyone else is worse, but we are better

PorkSoda

Quote from: Al Boarland on June 20, 2017, 09:05:12 pm
Common hogville reasons...

-We're due
-They beat us so bad last year we will play harder
-New mindset
-Everyone else is worse, but we are better
lol, hard to argue with that logic. 

"I became insane, with long intervals of horrible sanity." ― Edgar Allan Poe
"If quantum mechanics hasn't profoundly shocked you, you haven't understood it yet. Everything we call real is made of things that cannot be regarded as real." – Niels Bohr
"A mind stretched to a new idea, never returns to its original dimensions" ~ Oliver Wendell Holmes
Quote from: PonderinHog on August 07, 2023, 06:37:15 pmYeah, we're all here, but we ain't all there.

Boss Hog in the Arkansas

Quote from: redleg on June 20, 2017, 02:58:32 pm
A feeling...and the Hogs are due.
Plus, A&M also lost a ton of talent on both sides of the ball. The Aggies are not Alabama, they don't have the horse's to just lose a highly ranked player and then say "Next" like the Tide do.
Actually they do. Im not saying A&M has the insane number 0f 5* players that bama has, but they aren't too far off either. Sumlin always has a top 10 (or somewhere near) recruiting class, he just underachieves as a coach
That's right, you don't want to be the man to replace the man.  You want to be the man to replace Rory Segrest.

MuskogeeHogFan

Quote from: Boss Hog in the Arkansas on June 21, 2017, 08:11:19 am
Actually they do. Im not saying A&M has the insane number 0f 5* players that bama has, but they aren't too far off either. Sumlin always has a top 10 (or somewhere near) recruiting class, he just underachieves as a coach

Average on Rivals of #10.8 from 2013-2017.
Go Hogs Go!

MuskogeeHogFan

Quote from: GuvHog on June 20, 2017, 04:09:40 pm
They returned 9 starters on Defense last year so most of the returning starters must be on offense.

TCU returns 7 on defense, 10 on offense. Biggest hit, D-Line where they lose 3 starters.
Go Hogs Go!

jgphillips3

I honestly don't know if we'll have a true upset this year.  I mean, we may beat a team that is ranked higher than us by a few spots but a real upset of a significantly better team, I don't know that I see one.  I'm still thinking this is potentially an 8-4 type season but that is because I believe we are better than five teams straight up, will lose to Bama and split the other six wherein we are in the ballpark of those teams but not exactly better, equal or true underdogs.  A&M nationally might be perceived that way if we beat them so if I had to pick, I'd pick that one even though saying the words "Arkansas upsets Texas A&M" is a nauseating phrase.

Hogwild

Quote from: MuskogeeHogFan on June 21, 2017, 09:25:19 am
TCU returns 7 on defense, 10 on offense. Biggest hit, D-Line where they lose 3 starters.

TCU offense ranks #5 in the nation in returning production
TCU defense ranks #23 in the nation in returning production

Overall the only team in the country that has more returning production then the horn frogs is FIU

By comparison our offense ranks 91st and the defense 89th, overall 90th

 

MuskogeeHogFan

Quote from: Hogwild on June 21, 2017, 04:22:23 pm
TCU offense ranks #5 in the nation in returning production
TCU defense ranks #23 in the nation in returning production

Overall the only team in the country that has more returning production then the horn frogs is FIU

By comparison our offense ranks 91st and the defense 89th, overall 90th

Source?
Go Hogs Go!


MuskogeeHogFan

Quote from: Hogwild on June 21, 2017, 04:36:39 pm
https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2017/1/31/14451014/2017-ncaa-football-returning-starters-experience-oregon-tcu-texas

our rankings do include RWIII

From an offensive standpoint I have a few problems with the way they set this up. First, it is slanted towards teams receiving yards and that tend to pass more than run. The run game may not be as important to as many teams as it is to Arkansas, but it is an integral and important part of our offense. The second issue I have is related to the first in that their RB correlation is downgraded due to the emphasis on passing and receivers. The third issue is that they also use the lowest correlation for the Offensive Line and as we all know, whether you are a run first team, pass first team or a balance of the two, a really good offensive line is essential to the success of any offensive unit. These things make me question the accuracy of these ratings from the start.
Go Hogs Go!

HiggiePiggy

Who do I see Arkansas pulling an upset on?  Arkansas. They do it every year.  Snatch victory from themselves at least 2 times a year. 
If a man speaks and no woman is around to hear him, is he still wrong?

Wildhog

Quote from: HiggiePiggy on June 24, 2017, 04:19:08 pm
Who do I see Arkansas pulling an upset on?  Arkansas. They do it every year.  Snatch victory from themselves at least 2 times a year. 

True story.
Arkansas Razorbacks Football National Championships:
1909/1964/1965/1977

Locutus_of_Boar

Quote from: widespreadsooie on June 15, 2017, 04:42:45 pm
I think there's a good chance we'll be dogs in Columbia.

Golden Nugget says it will be hard to upset Arkansas this year on the five games they bothered to set a line on this early:

TCU -1
A&M -6
Bama -28
Auburn -7
LSU -16.5

https://www.scribd.com/document/352025471/2017-Games-of-the-Year#from_embed

Youngsta71701

"The more things change the more they stay the same"

rhames

"I'm too drunk to taste this chicken"

"Can we get some waffles after we get some ass?" - Aunt Tiffany Freeman

Quote from: Hamdsome 1 on September 05, 2023, 06:43:26 pmSTHU. I get in more steps per day, at work, than you could possibly fathom.
The only down time my legs see is when seated in 1st Class.

Hoginsavga

Our best upset will be to win a game where we are losing at halftime. I am sure that's happened in the past four years but it sure seems as though it hasn't.

PorkSoda

"I became insane, with long intervals of horrible sanity." ― Edgar Allan Poe
"If quantum mechanics hasn't profoundly shocked you, you haven't understood it yet. Everything we call real is made of things that cannot be regarded as real." – Niels Bohr
"A mind stretched to a new idea, never returns to its original dimensions" ~ Oliver Wendell Holmes
Quote from: PonderinHog on August 07, 2023, 06:37:15 pmYeah, we're all here, but we ain't all there.