Arkansas vs Auburn A brief look back

[Hoginsavga]

Since Gus has been in the mix for the HC position, I have read where numerous HV posters have compared Arkansas to Auburn and expressed disbelief that he could win here at a level close to what he has accomplished at Auburn. Most base their beliefs on the lack of a recruiting base for the Hogs, among other things. So these Debbie Downers inspired me to take a closer look at a period of time when both schools had coaches that were good/very good coaches.

I have excluded years 2013 - 2017 because Auburn had Gus and Arkansas had Bret and that distorts the purpose of this analysis. First, let me point out that from 1992 through 2012 the series was tied at 10 wins each with one tie. But that being significant is not so much the point I want to make.

I took the time frame of 14 years for both schools which were 1998-2011 for Arkansas and 1999-2012 for Auburn. Of course Arkansas had Houston Nutt (10) and Bobby Petrino (4) for 14 years. Auburn had Tommy Tubby (10) and Gene Chizik (4) for 14 yearrs. If you asked the average fan, either Auburn or Arkansas fans, whether Auburn was significantly better during this timeframe my guess would be most would say absolutely yes. After all Tuberville went undefeated one year and Chizik won a NC.

However, during this 14 years Auburn won 118 games while Arkansas won 109 or 67% vs 63%, less than one game per year more. SEC records show Auburn win 67 vs 59 for Arkansas also less than one SEC game per year. Then one must consider that while Nutt was coaching for 10 years his record is included and so has the 10 years of Tuberville and I think most would agree that TT is a better coach than HDN. Conversely the records of BP and GC are included but only four years of each.

The point I am making is even though a great many fans, including the naysayers in Arkansas, think Auburn is the utopia in recruiting the history does not support that belief. Only since Gus and Bret have been at the respective schools have the records become one sided.

I firmly believe with the right coach at Arkansas we would see a totally different program. I think if it's Gus, Kiffin, or Norvell we will recover and do so in 2-3 years.

As a footnote Arkansas became a charter member of the SWC in 1915 and had won the conference 3 times through 1957. A young coach came on board in 1958 with little HC experience and changed the football program in a monumental way. So it has happened before. It takes that special person with a clear vision.

[NoogaHog]

Good points. What about recruiting during this time frame? Without doing the research, I would say it heavily favors Auburn.

I think the difference is the perception that Arkansas is consistently a 6-8 win team with a few outliers in either direction, while Auburn's reputation is to win spectacularly or lose spectacularly. Any given year may be 3-9 or 10-2 with little in between. That may not be true, but that is the difference. We have not had the success that they have had. Bowden, Tuberville, and Chizik all had undefeated seasons, while Malzahn had a 12-2 season. Our best season since joining the SEC was 11-2, with 2 three loss seasons.

Just an observation.

[jrhardy88]

An interesting,considered,optimistic post,I didn't think they existed on Hogville any more,thanks

[Hoginsavga]

Good points. What about recruiting during this time frame? Without doing the research, I would say it heavily favors Auburn.

I think the difference is the perception that Arkansas is consistently a 6-8 win team with a few outliers in either direction, while Auburn's reputation is to win spectacularly or lose spectacularly. Any given year may be 3-9 or 10-2 with little in between. That may not be true, but that is the difference. We have not had the success that they have had. Bowden, Tuberville, and Chizik all had undefeated seasons, while Malzahn had a 12-2 season. Our best season since joining the SEC was 11-2, with 2 three loss seasons.

Just an observation.

Nor did I go back to those years for recruiting stats. But the fact is Fayetteville and Auburn are still in the same locations and the area around Fayetteville has grown more than the immediate area around Auburn. I lived among many rabid Auburn fans (Columbus, GA) for many years and according to them they always had the best recruits. I think the recruiting results are usually biased against Arkansas and other people in Arkansas believe this as well, although the naysayers will deny this to their last breath. Regardless, Arkansas showed they could go toe to toe with Auburn during those years with the recruits we had and coaches. Additionally, if we had Tommy Tuberville and Auburn had Houston Nutt I have to wonder if our record would have been better. Coaching matters big time.

[IMABIELEMA]

AUBURN FOOTBALL > ARKANSAS FOOTBALL IN EVERY WAY CALCULABLE.  It's not some MASSIVE difference,  but it is a significant difference.  How many SEC championships have we won?  How many National Championships have we appeared in?

[Hoginsavga]

An interesting,considered,optimistic post,I didn't think they existed on Hogville any more,thanks

Thanks to you. I just simply don't understand the mindset of some fans that think we should stay at the bottom of the misery pit. I have found in my personal experiences you can accomplish more if you believe in yourself and work for predetermined goals.

[cjack]

Since Gus has been in the mix for the HC position, I have read where numerous HV posters have compared Arkansas to Auburn and expressed disbelief that he could win here at a level close to what he has accomplished at Auburn. Most base their beliefs on the lack of a recruiting base for the Hogs, among other things. So these Debbie Downers inspired me to take a closer look at a period of time when both schools had coaches that were good/very good coaches.

I have excluded years 2013 - 2017 because Auburn had Gus and Arkansas had Bret and that distorts the purpose of this analysis. First, let me point out that from 1992 through 2012 the series was tied at 10 wins each with one tie. But that being significant is not so much the point I want to make.

I took the time frame of 14 years for both schools which were 1998-2011 for Arkansas and 1999-2012 for Auburn. Of course Arkansas had Houston Nutt (10) and Bobby Petrino (4) for 14 years. Auburn had Tommy Tubby (10) and Gene Chizik (4) for 14 yearrs. If you asked the average fan, either Auburn or Arkansas fans, whether Auburn was significantly better during this timeframe my guess would be most would say absolutely yes. After all Tuberville went undefeated one year and Chizik won a NC.

However, during this 14 years Auburn won 118 games while Arkansas won 109 or 67% vs 63%, less than one game per year more. SEC records show Auburn win 67 vs 59 for Arkansas also less than one SEC game per year. Then one must consider that while Nutt was coaching for 10 years his record is included and so has the 10 years of Tuberville and I think most would agree that TT is a better coach than HDN. Conversely the records of BP and GC are included but only four years of each.

The point I am making is even though a great many fans, including the naysayers in Arkansas, think Auburn is the utopia in recruiting the history does not support that belief. Only since Gus and Bret have been at the respective schools have the records become one sided.

I firmly believe with the right coach at Arkansas we would see a totally different program. I think if it's Gus, Kiffin, or Norvell we will recover and do so in 2-3 years.

As a footnote Arkansas became a charter member of the SWC in 1915 and had won the conference 3 times through 1957. A young coach came on board in 1958 with little HC experience and changed the football program in a monumental way. So it has happened before. It takes that special person with a clear vision.

Don't start using truth and stats in here.  The Bielemers and poor Lil Ole Arky crowd don't want to hear that their excuses are invalid.

[Hoginsavga]

AUBURN FOOTBALL > ARKANSAS FOOTBALL IN EVERY WAY CALCULABLE.  It's not some MASSIVE difference,  but it is a significant difference.  How many SEC championships have we won?  How many National Championships have we appeared in?

Your avatar says it all. No it's not a significant difference unless you are an Auburn fan.

[Al Boarland]

Your avatar says it all. No it's not a significant difference unless you are an Auburn fan.

I can tell you the perception by everyone outside of the Natural State is there's a sig difference.

[JOKERHOG]

Aubarn thinks they are on another level but records and head to head meetings show that is wrong.  They are the most obnoxious fans in the world along wiht OU and TAMU

[Hoginsavga]

I can tell you the perception by everyone outside of the Natural State is there's a sig difference.

Yes you are correct about this and unfortunately many uninformed Hog fans also believe the same. I have lived in the Auburn territory for many years and probably 99% believe Auburn is head and shoulders above Arkansas but facts tell me they are not. It's disappointing that the Arkansas fanbase doesn't have higher expectations. Not all Hog fans but a large portion.

[aloha_kid]

Since Gus has been in the mix for the HC position, I have read where numerous HV posters have compared Arkansas to Auburn and expressed disbelief that he could win here at a level close to what he has accomplished at Auburn. Most base their beliefs on the lack of a recruiting base for the Hogs, among other things. So these Debbie Downers inspired me to take a closer look at a period of time when both schools had coaches that were good/very good coaches.

I have excluded years 2013 - 2017 because Auburn had Gus and Arkansas had Bret and that distorts the purpose of this analysis. First, let me point out that from 1992 through 2012 the series was tied at 10 wins each with one tie. But that being significant is not so much the point I want to make.

I took the time frame of 14 years for both schools which were 1998-2011 for Arkansas and 1999-2012 for Auburn. Of course Arkansas had Houston Nutt (10) and Bobby Petrino (4) for 14 years. Auburn had Tommy Tubby (10) and Gene Chizik (4) for 14 yearrs. If you asked the average fan, either Auburn or Arkansas fans, whether Auburn was significantly better during this timeframe my guess would be most would say absolutely yes. After all Tuberville went undefeated one year and Chizik won a NC.

However, during this 14 years Auburn won 118 games while Arkansas won 109 or 67% vs 63%, less than one game per year more. SEC records show Auburn win 67 vs 59 for Arkansas also less than one SEC game per year. Then one must consider that while Nutt was coaching for 10 years his record is included and so has the 10 years of Tuberville and I think most would agree that TT is a better coach than HDN. Conversely the records of BP and GC are included but only four years of each.

The point I am making is even though a great many fans, including the naysayers in Arkansas, think Auburn is the utopia in recruiting the history does not support that belief. Only since Gus and Bret have been at the respective schools have the records become one sided.

I firmly believe with the right coach at Arkansas we would see a totally different program. I think if it's Gus, Kiffin, or Norvell we will recover and do so in 2-3 years.

As a footnote Arkansas became a charter member of the SWC in 1915 and had won the conference 3 times through 1957. A young coach came on board in 1958 with little HC experience and changed the football program in a monumental way. So it has happened before. It takes that special person with a clear vision.

So, you vacate data that actually means something to support your theory.  I suppose the football landscape didn't change during 2013-2017?

Flawed data = flawed results.

[regi]

AU is not Bama,  LSU,  Florida or UGA. Some of them may think they are,  but they are not. To quote them,  "they live behind enemy lines". 75% of the people in Bama,  support Bama. They constantly live in forever,  little brother world,  much like the Ags did with the Horns.  Bama envy consumes them. Their main positive,  is location for recruiting.  Because of that,  they are capable of very high,  highs.  They can also bottom out quick. Probably why,  they have never had,  back to back 10 (or 10+) win seasons in 120+ years of football....and Jordan Hare us a dump. One big screen or two,  still a dump.

[redeye]

That's a nice post and I don't disagree.  If you go back further, Arkansas was certainly the better program throughout the 60's, 70's and probably the 80's.  However, I also think your argument is flawed for 2 reasons.

The first is recruiting.  Auburn may have the best location in the SEC for recruiting and just has top recruits around in every direction for hundreds of miles.  The second is because Auburn's brass (i.e. GOBN/BOT) is very good right now.  The latter is important, because it helps Auburn recruit coaches and players, and I suspect that has much to do with Gus' success at Auburn.  The brass at most top SEC schools is very good and I think that's one area where we lack today, despite all the money.

[Al Boarland]

That's a nice post and I don't disagree.  If you go back further, Arkansas was certainly the better program throughout the 60's, 70's and probably the 80's.  However, I also think your argument is flawed for 2 reasons.

The first is recruiting.  Auburn may have the best location in the SEC for recruiting and just has top recruits around in every direction for hundreds of miles.  The second is because Auburn's brass (i.e. GOBN/BOT) is very good right now.  The latter is important, because it helps Auburn recruit coaches and players, and I suspect that has much to do with Gus' success at Auburn.  The brass at most top SEC schools is very good and I think that's one area where we lack today, despite all the money.

I think if you put the jobs side by side and asked any objective person they are going to tell you Auburn is the better job. That's all that matters.

[BartIV]

NCAA finances 2015-2016
Auburn ranks 10th in the nation.
Arkansas ranks 14th in the nation.

Have no clue whose argument this helps. I would also guess, just a guess, Arkansas has dropped in this area because lack of success, while Auburn has risen since 2015-2016.
Great leadership will overcome many difficult hurdles.

[Boss Hog in the Arkansas]

Since Gus has been in the mix for the HC position, I have read where numerous HV posters have compared Arkansas to Auburn and expressed disbelief that he could win here at a level close to what he has accomplished at Auburn. Most base their beliefs on the lack of a recruiting base for the Hogs, among other things. So these Debbie Downers inspired me to take a closer look at a period of time when both schools had coaches that were good/very good coaches.

I have excluded years 2013 - 2017 because Auburn had Gus and Arkansas had Bret and that distorts the purpose of this analysis. First, let me point out that from 1992 through 2012 the series was tied at 10 wins each with one tie. But that being significant is not so much the point I want to make.

I took the time frame of 14 years for both schools which were 1998-2011 for Arkansas and 1999-2012 for Auburn. Of course Arkansas had Houston Nutt (10) and Bobby Petrino (4) for 14 years. Auburn had Tommy Tubby (10) and Gene Chizik (4) for 14 yearrs. If you asked the average fan, either Auburn or Arkansas fans, whether Auburn was significantly better during this timeframe my guess would be most would say absolutely yes. After all Tuberville went undefeated one year and Chizik won a NC.

However, during this 14 years Auburn won 118 games while Arkansas won 109 or 67% vs 63%, less than one game per year more. SEC records show Auburn win 67 vs 59 for Arkansas also less than one SEC game per year. Then one must consider that while Nutt was coaching for 10 years his record is included and so has the 10 years of Tuberville and I think most would agree that TT is a better coach than HDN. Conversely the records of BP and GC are included but only four years of each.

The point I am making is even though a great many fans, including the naysayers in Arkansas, think Auburn is the utopia in recruiting the history does not support that belief. Only since Gus and Bret have been at the respective schools have the records become one sided.

I firmly believe with the right coach at Arkansas we would see a totally different program. I think if it's Gus, Kiffin, or Norvell we will recover and do so in 2-3 years.

As a footnote Arkansas became a charter member of the SWC in 1915 and had won the conference 3 times through 1957. A young coach came on board in 1958 with little HC experience and changed the football program in a monumental way. So it has happened before. It takes that special person with a clear vision.

That's all the time it takes. A good coach/good fit only needs 2 years to get the program rolling. Sometimes it happens in the 1st year. They uncover talent on the roster that the previous coach didn't even know he had. Nutt in year 1 is a great example

[Kneph13]

Very good thread.

[bphi11ips]

Good points. What about recruiting during this time frame? Without doing the research, I would say it heavily favors Auburn.

I did the research and reported it recently in another thread. The results are based upon Rivals. Some here assert Rivals is inferior to other rating services, but it's rankings over time are similar to the others, it was an early entrant into the business, it's reputation for many years was as the leading rating service, and it's annual rankings from 2002 to date are easily available.

From 2002 to 2012, Auburn's average team recruiting ranking was 11.6. From 2013 to 2017 it was 9.2.

From 2002 to 2012, Arkansas's average was 26.2. From 2013 to 2017, it was 27.

Taken together with the excellent research presented in the OP, what does this tell you about recruiting services?

[bphi11ips]

Very good thread.

"Hello In There" is one of the greatest songs ever written, BTW.

[Hoginsavga]

So, you vacate data that actually means something to support your theory.  I suppose the football landscape didn't change during 2013-2017?

Flawed data = flawed results.

If you notice my first paragraph this is about Gus and whether he would be stepping into a much weaker position at Arkansas than he did at Auburn. To include the timeframe of 2013-2017 would have flawed the results because of Gus coaching during that time. Actually the time period I included was for two coaches at each school with identical numbers in years coached. Also those times probably favors Auburn to some extent because I think the 10 years TT coached should have been better than HDN's 10 years. The opposite is true for BP's 4 years vs GC's 4 years. So if the analysis is flawed, it should be in Auburn's favor.

[bphi11ips]

If you notice my first paragraph this is about Gus and whether he would be stepping into a much weaker position at Arkansas than he did at Auburn. To include the timeframe of 2013-2017 would have flawed the results because of Gus coaching during that time. Actually the time period I included was for two coaches at each school with identical numbers in years coached. Also those times probably favors Auburn to some extent because I think the 10 years TT coached should have been better than HDN's 10 years. The opposite is true for BP's 4 years vs GC's 4 years. So if the analysis is flawed, it should be in Auburn's favor.

I excluded the same time period for the same reason in another thread on the same subject.  The question is comparable quality of the two programs without Malzahn.  The data would be flawed only if you included 2013 to 2017. 

An interesting footnote is that 14 of Auburn's wins, including 9 SEC wins, came in 2010 while Malzahn was OC.

[DeltaBoy]

Auburn out recruited us since the beginning of Time.

[depressed_fan]

Malzhan won't get the same caliber players here in the same quantity but I do agree he could get us back to a competitive level. For instance his current defensive line is deep and probably the best in college football. He won't have near that here nor will he have the linebackers or secondary. Offensively I think he could do similar things.

I'm not sure where you get the idea most people would agree Tuberville is a better coach than Nutt. Most people that would say that don't know diddly pooh about football either. Nutt played Tuberville 10 times and was 5-5 against him and Auburn is a much stronger recruiting ground. Nutt was the superior coach and it's not close.

[bphi11ips]

Auburn out recruited us since the beginning of Time.

If time began with the integration of college football in the South you would be correct. That is when Auburn football began to take off.

[Hoginsavga]

Malzhan won't get the same caliber players here in the same quantity but I do agree he could get us back to a competitive level. For instance his current defensive line is deep and probably the best in college football. He won't have near that here nor will he have the linebackers or secondary. Offensively I think he could do similar things.

I'm not sure where you get the idea most people would agree Tuberville is a better coach than Nutt. Most people that would say that don't know diddly pooh about football either. Nutt played Tuberville 10 times and was 5-5 against him and Auburn is a much stronger recruiting ground. Nutt was the superior coach and it's not close.

I am saying that because of the numerous comments I have seen on HV stating we could have hired TT instead of HDN and the program would have been better. Also the failure of HDN at Ole Miss was a factor in my comments. TT did not fail after Auburn to the extent of HDN although his coaching after Auburn was not stellar.