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Author Topic: For those who like to predict seasons based upon averages  (Read 809 times)

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oldhawg

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For those who like to predict seasons based upon averages
« on: August 10, 2017, 06:24:33 pm »

From 1960 to 2010 (51 years), Clemson averaged 6.8 wins a season.

From 2011 to 2016 Clemson averaged 11.6 wins a season with one national championship.

I just refuse to believe that Arkansas cannot accomplish something similar.

Clemson University has about 19,000 undergraduate students, and the town of Clemson has a permanent population of about 16,000.

 
« Last Edit: August 11, 2017, 09:26:17 am by oldhawg »
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chenalhog

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Re: For those who like to predict seasons based upon averages
« Reply #1 on: August 10, 2017, 06:31:00 pm »

From 1960 to 2016 (51 years), Clemson averaged 6.8 wins a season.

From 2011 to 2016 Clemson averaged 11.6 wins a season with one national championship.

I just refuse to believe that Arkansas cannot accomplish something similar.

Clemson University has about 19,000 undergraduate students, and the town of Clemson has a permanent population of about 16,000.

 
and they recruiting BSA within 3-4 hours is in credable
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Bubba's Bruisers

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Re: For those who like to predict seasons based upon averages
« Reply #2 on: August 10, 2017, 06:44:02 pm »

Sounds like we need yet another lesson on recruiting concepts.
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Hogwild

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Re: For those who like to predict seasons based upon averages
« Reply #3 on: August 10, 2017, 07:22:29 pm »

Sounds like we need yet another lesson on recruiting concepts.

That's an excuse not a reason.  Yes we have a minor handicap, so do other schools.

Over the past 10 years what have:
Oregon, Utah, Nebraska, Boise State, BYU, MIzzou, West Virginia, Wisconsin done that we haven't other than win.
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lakecityhog

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Re: For those who like to predict seasons based upon averages
« Reply #4 on: August 10, 2017, 07:25:39 pm »

Didn't they have the same recruiting base from 1960 to 2016? Did they move the campus to gain a recruiting edge?

Flip the flop with Texas(spit) why haven't they been recruiting at a top 5 rate like they have for 50 years???
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Bubba's Bruisers

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Re: For those who like to predict seasons based upon averages
« Reply #5 on: August 10, 2017, 08:01:18 pm »

That's an excuse not a reason.  Yes we have a minor handicap, so do other schools.

Over the past 10 years what have:
Oregon, Utah, Nebraska, Boise State, BYU, MIzzou, West Virginia, Wisconsin done that we haven't other than win.

They haven't sniffed a NC, like Clemson does...the OP's example school.  Let's settle the goal posts to just one position.  Are we comparing ourselves to a NC program like Clemson or to the likes of Wisky and NE? 
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Pig in the Pokey

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Re: For those who like to predict seasons based upon averages
« Reply #6 on: August 10, 2017, 08:04:12 pm »

and they recruiting BSA within 3-4 hours is in credable
that, and they pay players by funneling money thru churches and even provide hookers to recruits. That helps, too.
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Al Boarland

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Re: For those who like to predict seasons based upon averages
« Reply #7 on: August 10, 2017, 08:14:43 pm »

Clemson recruits better and has an easier path to the playoffs. They also had a game changing QB.
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MuskogeeHogFan

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Re: For those who like to predict seasons based upon averages
« Reply #8 on: August 10, 2017, 08:55:47 pm »

From 1960 to 2016 (51 years), Clemson averaged 6.8 wins a season.

From 2011 to 2016 Clemson averaged 11.6 wins a season with one national championship.

I just refuse to believe that Arkansas cannot accomplish something similar.

Clemson University has about 19,000 undergraduate students, and the town of Clemson has a permanent population of about 16,000.

 

While we can't necessarily compare anything to other campuses, student bodies or the size of the town in which the school is located, I am of the belief that if you are a school that has a recruiting disadvantage compared to other big named schools in your conference (like Alabama) you have to leverage other things to your advantage.

Yes, it is essential that we have a very productive offense that controls the clock and is really good in the RZ and we have to have a pretty decent defense (#35 nationally or better) but we also have to have other means of scoring points aside from the offense...let's call those "opportunity points".

Those would include Recovered Fumbles for TD's, INT's for TD's, PR's for TD's and KO Returns for TD's. This doesn't include XP's following TD's (which should be automatic) or Field Goals. But when you look at just TD's from the offense and the other areas I listed, you need to be in excess of 30 points per game in order to compete for the the Western Division title in the SEC and have a shot at the NC Play Offs.

If you don't gain at least 3-6 additional points (on average p/game) from those opportunities each season (in excess of Offensive TD's), you aren't likely to have any shot at the SEC West or the SECCG.

Yes, it requires talent and yes, it requires coaching and emphasis on what is perceived to be the smaller things like coordinated and practiced effort on returns of fumble recoveries, INT's, Kick and Punt Returns and the like. All of these things contribute to the overall team success and when you are disciplined in your effort, practice after practice and game after game, it yields points that are sometimes the difference between being average and achieving great success. JMO
« Last Edit: August 11, 2017, 06:34:06 am by MuskogeeHogFan »
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FANONTHEHILL

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Re: For those who like to predict seasons based upon averages
« Reply #9 on: August 11, 2017, 07:10:19 am »

That's an excuse not a reason.  Yes we have a minor handicap, so do other schools.

Over the past 10 years what have:
Oregon, Utah, Nebraska, Boise State, BYU, MIzzou, West Virginia, Wisconsin done that we haven't other than win.

They haven't played an SEC West schedule for one.
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hawgon

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Re: For those who like to predict seasons based upon averages
« Reply #10 on: August 11, 2017, 07:21:02 am »

We've squandered at least two wins a year every year since Bielema has been here.  Add eight wins over the last four years to this program and the national perception is COMPLETELY different.  We would be poised to break into the elite instead of wondering if we were going to be able to get eight.
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davglo35

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Re: For those who like to predict seasons based upon averages
« Reply #11 on: August 11, 2017, 08:22:48 am »

What makes a talented team's season is turnovers. Phil Steele did an analysis of teams that have good seasons and teams that don't. When teams are fairly close talent wise it's always the turnover ratio that makes or breaks a season. If you are + in turnovers you have a winning season almost every time.
Remember last season when Alabama would score defensive touchdowns almost every game? No one had a chance to beat them when these turnovers were occurring. Not even Ole Miss.
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mizzouman

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Re: For those who like to predict seasons based upon averages
« Reply #12 on: August 11, 2017, 08:25:04 am »

From 1960 to 2016 (51 years), Clemson averaged 6.8 wins a season.

From 2011 to 2016 Clemson averaged 11.6 wins a season with one national championship.

I just refuse to believe that Arkansas cannot accomplish something similar.

Clemson University has about 19,000 undergraduate students, and the town of Clemson has a permanent population of about 16,000.

 
Your last sentence has no bearing on the success of a college football program.
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Atlhogfan1

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Re: For those who like to predict seasons based upon averages
« Reply #13 on: August 11, 2017, 09:20:23 am »

Clemson is in the SC Upsate with a population of 1.5 million.  30 miles from Greenville.  2 hour drive NE from Atlanta on I85.  2 hour drive SW from Charlotte on I85.

The demographics of this region is very beneficial for recruiting and the quality of high school football is vastly better in this region than Arkansas or Missouri. 

Not a comparable situation.  Clemson = Auburn with less competition. 

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oldhawg

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Re: For those who like to predict seasons based upon averages
« Reply #14 on: August 11, 2017, 09:27:41 am »

Clemson is in the SC Upsate with a population of 1.5 million.  30 miles from Greenville.  2 hour drive NE from Atlanta on I85.  2 hour drive SW from Charlotte on I85.

The demographics of this region is very beneficial for recruiting and the quality of high school football is vastly better in this region than Arkansas or Missouri. 

Not a comparable situation.  Clemson = Auburn with less competition. 



And yet from 1960 to 2010 they were unable to fully take advantage of this advantage.  Something changed.
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oldhawg

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Re: For those who like to predict seasons based upon averages
« Reply #15 on: August 11, 2017, 09:29:33 am »

Your last sentence has no bearing on the success of a college football program.

The intent was simply to compare/contrast Clemson and the University of Arkansas
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oldhawg

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Re: For those who like to predict seasons based upon averages
« Reply #16 on: August 11, 2017, 09:30:56 am »

While we can't necessarily compare anything to other campuses, student bodies or the size of the town in which the school is located, I am of the belief that if you are a school that has a recruiting disadvantage compared to other big named schools in your conference (like Alabama) you have to leverage other things to your advantage.

Yes, it is essential that we have a very productive offense that controls the clock and is really good in the RZ and we have to have a pretty decent defense (#35 nationally or better) but we also have to have other means of scoring points aside from the offense...let's call those "opportunity points".

Those would include Recovered Fumbles for TD's, INT's for TD's, PR's for TD's and KO Returns for TD's. This doesn't include XP's following TD's (which should be automatic) or Field Goals. But when you look at just TD's from the offense and the other areas I listed, you need to be in excess of 30 points per game in order to compete for the the Western Division title in the SEC and have a shot at the NC Play Offs.

If you don't gain at least 3-6 additional points (on average p/game) from those opportunities each season (in excess of Offensive TD's), you aren't likely to have any shot at the SEC West or the SECCG.

Yes, it requires talent and yes, it requires coaching and emphasis on what is perceived to be the smaller things like coordinated and practiced effort on returns of fumble recoveries, INT's, Kick and Punt Returns and the like. All of these things contribute to the overall team success and when you are disciplined in your effort, practice after practice and game after game, it yields points that are sometimes the difference between being average and achieving great success. JMO

Now you are just being too logical and analytical :)
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oldhawg

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Re: For those who like to predict seasons based upon averages
« Reply #17 on: August 11, 2017, 09:37:33 am »

that, and they pay players by funneling money thru churches and even provide hookers to recruits. That helps, too.

Not refuting your comment, but I have read nothing implicating Clemson in prostitution deals or large pay-offs.  Can you tell me where you are getting this information?

If not, then you are implying that perhaps the 2010 (10 wins) and 2011 (11 wins) seasons at Arkansas were also the result of prostitution and bribery.  I certainly do not believe that. 
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Atlhogfan1

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Re: For those who like to predict seasons based upon averages
« Reply #18 on: August 11, 2017, 09:53:14 am »

And yet from 1960 to 2010 they were unable to fully take advantage of this advantage.  Something changed.

Take out pre-integration era football IMO.  Pre-1970 as UA-Texas was the last big game between two all white teams.

One change is the population of the Upstate, Atlanta and Charlotte.  The Upstate has grown every decade since 1970 and is a larger and more demographically beneficial version of NWA in terms of population.

Atlanta metro was 1.7 million in 1970.  Now nearly 6 million.

Charlotte and Atlanta were two of the top 10 fastest growing metros from 2000 - 2009.  The population growth in the Southeast has helped give rise to the Florida programs as well.

Go back to Pell's first season in 1977 and you will see the post-integration success of Clemson football.  7 top 10 finishes including two NC's.  34 bowls including the 2 NCGs with an 18-16 record.  0 bowls from 1960-76. 




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MuskogeeHogFan

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Re: For those who like to predict seasons based upon averages
« Reply #19 on: August 11, 2017, 09:57:06 am »

Now you are just being too logical and analytical :)

Ha! Well you were talking about predicting by "averages", so...

I've looked at several schools, SEC and then all of those that have been involved in the play off or ranked in the top 4 for the last 4 seasons and it was really interesting how far more often than not, there was a difference in the opportunity points of those who were involved as opposed to those who weren't. There are always exceptions and Clemson was one of those who had an abnormally low opportunity point average, but the only time that those teams made the play offs was when they had an extremely high powered offense that "trumped" the need for the opportunity points, but that doesn't seem to happen often.

In almost every case the teams who made the playoffs had to have a combined average p/gm of over 30 points between the opportunity points and the offensive TD's alone.

Here's Alabama's opportunity point average (p/gm). Again, these are TD's derived from Fumble Returns, INT Returns, Punt Returns and KO Returns and does not include offensive TD's, XP's or FG's.

2016-6.0, 2015-4.6, 2014-0.9, 2013-3.5

Now here are our opportunity point averages p/gm for the last 4 years.

2016-1.8, 2015-0.0, 2014-1.8, 2013-0.5

We have to become a team that takes greater advantage of scoring on turnover opportunities and Punt and KO Returns. Those are just bonus points that can not only make a difference in close games, but can also help to destroy the will of an opponent.
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Atlhogfan1

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Re: For those who like to predict seasons based upon averages
« Reply #20 on: August 11, 2017, 10:11:19 am »

Ha! Well you were talking about predicting by "averages", so...

I've looked at several schools, SEC and then all of those that have been involved in the play off or ranked in the top 4 for the last 4 seasons and it was really interesting how far more often than not, there was a difference in the opportunity points of those who were involved as opposed to those who weren't. There are always exceptions and Clemson was one of those who had an abnormally low opportunity point average, but the only time that those teams made the play offs was when they had an extremely high powered offense that "trumped" the need for the opportunity points, but that doesn't seem to happen often.

In almost every case the teams who made the playoffs had to have a combined average p/gm of over 30 points between the opportunity points and the offensive TD's alone.

Here's Alabama's opportunity point average (p/gm). Again, these are TD's derived from Fumble Returns, INT Returns, Punt Returns and KO Returns and does not include offensive TD's, XP's or FG's.

2016-6.0, 2015-4.6, 2014-0.9, 2013-3.5

Now here are our opportunity point averages p/gm for the last 4 years.

2016-1.8, 2015-0.0, 2014-1.8, 2013-0.5

We have to become a team that takes greater advantage of scoring on turnover opportunities and Punt and KO Returns. Those are just bonus points that can not only make a difference in close games, but can also help to destroy the will of an opponent.

It's that inability to recruit and build defense compared to some of these programs in the SE US in the ACC and SEC which separates us and IMO partially causes the ceiling we have seen.  Depth shows up on STs.  Hopefully we are building successfully where we will see it soon. 
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MuskogeeHogFan

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Re: For those who like to predict seasons based upon averages
« Reply #21 on: August 11, 2017, 10:21:13 am »

It's that inability to recruit and build defense compared to some of these programs in the SE US in the ACC and SEC which separates us and IMO partially causes the ceiling we have seen.  Depth shows up on STs.  Hopefully we are building successfully where we will see it soon. 

There isn't any doubt that better athletes helps on ST's but a lot of the excellence on ST's is built on disciplined play and coverages. People getting out of lanes in coverages, not being aligned properly in setting up a return, not being able to resist taking a shot at a guy when he is close to having his back to you and the same thing in blocking on fumble and INT returns. It's the little things that count. And whether you are a superior athlete or just a good athlete you have to be self disciplined enough to make sure that you keep yourself in your lane, execute your assignment and don't ruin what can perhaps turn out to be a game changing play. None of that requires a 5 star or a 4 star athlete, just a lot of practice and discipline.
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Hog Fan...DOH!

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Re: For those who like to predict seasons based upon averages
« Reply #22 on: August 11, 2017, 10:36:12 am »

1) Build program stability
2) #1 requires winning enough on the field, and limited craziness off the field
3) Have NFL guys on every level of D
4) Have a freak on offense that no defense in America can account for (either at QB, or a D-mac/Julio Jones type).
5) Get lucky a couple times   

Boom.  National title.
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mizzouman

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Re: For those who like to predict seasons based upon averages
« Reply #23 on: August 11, 2017, 01:52:44 pm »

The intent was simply to compare/contrast Clemson and the University of Arkansas
Understood.
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HamSammich

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Re: For those who like to predict seasons based upon averages
« Reply #24 on: August 11, 2017, 02:13:57 pm »

The OP has a really valid point.

The lazy "excuse" I've read here is recruiting.

27  2010
10
20
15
16
9
11
16 2017

in 2018 currently sitting at 14

They average less than one 5 star player a year during these years.

Its good recruiting but we all know that isn't exactly blueblood powerhouse recruiting.

I also see the ole "We play in the SEC W" stuff being slung around. I refuse to feel sorry for ourselves or reduce expectations because of the conference.

Some people can just evaluate the heck out of players and recruit them. Swinney, Petersen, and Snyder come to mind. And the OP is right imo. If Clemsen can do this... so can we.

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Atlhogfan1

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Re: For those who like to predict seasons based upon averages
« Reply #25 on: August 11, 2017, 02:52:33 pm »

The OP has a really valid point.

The lazy "excuse" I've read here is recruiting.

27  2010
10
20
15
16
9
11
16 2017

in 2018 currently sitting at 14

They average less than one 5 star player a year during these years.

Its good recruiting but we all know that isn't exactly blueblood powerhouse recruiting.

I also see the ole "We play in the SEC W" stuff being slung around. I refuse to feel sorry for ourselves or reduce expectations because of the conference.

Some people can just evaluate the heck out of players and recruit them. Swinney, Petersen, and Snyder come to mind. And the OP is right imo. If Clemsen can do this... so can we.

2017 recruiting rankings for the ACC:

6 FSU
13 Miami
16 Clemson
25 VT
30 NC
33 Louisville
37 Pitt
47 GT
48 Duke
52 NC St
54 Syracuse
57 UVa
66 BC
67 Wake

Avg 39

SEC
1
3
7
9
10
12
17
21
24
27 Hogs
29
31
42
65

Avg 21
Take out Vandy and it is 18


Hogs' SECW opponents avg class = 13

1 Bama
7 LSU
9 AU
12 A&M
24 Miss St
29 OM

Clemson's ACC divisional opponents avg class ranking for 2017 = 46

FSU 6
Louisville 33
NC St 52
Syr 54
BC 66
Wake 67


ND does play ACC teams right now with their agreement and had the 11th ranked class.  Would be 2nd in the ACC but 6th in the SEC.


Can't dismiss recruiting if you intend on having a reasonable perspective of our situation.  This is true no matter the coach. 
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HamSammich

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Re: For those who like to predict seasons based upon averages
« Reply #26 on: August 11, 2017, 03:02:49 pm »

Yet they whooped the SEC team when it mattered.

you opened the scope up where we are not comparing apples to apples anymore. Apples to apples is that if we get the three stars that go to the NFL like Clemson does then we can beat Bama too (although I think we beat them this year)
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Inhogswetrust

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Re: For those who like to predict seasons based upon averages
« Reply #27 on: August 11, 2017, 03:07:12 pm »

From 1960 to 2010 (51 years), Clemson averaged 6.8 wins a season.

From 2011 to 2016 Clemson averaged 11.6 wins a season with one national championship.

I just refuse to believe that Arkansas cannot accomplish something similar.

Clemson University has about 19,000 undergraduate students, and the town of Clemson has a permanent population of about 16,000.

 

I've been to Clemson. Nice place and campus. It is close to a large talent rich recruiting area. As far as population is concerned it is just a few miles and very close to Greenville and Spartanburg SC. It is the #40 largest population combined metro area in the US with over 1.4 million people. It's also an easy drive to Atlanta, GA and Charlotte, NC.
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GoHogs1091

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Re: For those who like to predict seasons based upon averages
« Reply #28 on: August 11, 2017, 04:49:08 pm »

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HamSammich

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Re: For those who like to predict seasons based upon averages
« Reply #29 on: August 11, 2017, 05:26:38 pm »

I've been to Clemson. Nice place and campus. It is close to a large talent rich recruiting area. As far as population is concerned it is just a few miles and very close to Greenville and Spartanburg SC. It is the #40 largest population combined metro area in the US with over 1.4 million people. It's also an easy drive to Atlanta, GA and Charlotte, NC.

More excuses.... regardless of their location their classes ranking are not all that. Excuses excuses excuses. I pity hog fan
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hawgon

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Re: For those who like to predict seasons based upon averages
« Reply #30 on: August 11, 2017, 07:30:26 pm »

The excuses are just stupid because we have been good enough the last three years to be a program ready to break into the elite.  We should have won at least nine each of the last three years.  We just are incredibly poorly coached during games and don't take advantage of our opportunities.
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HamSammich

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Re: For those who like to predict seasons based upon averages
« Reply #31 on: August 11, 2017, 08:35:26 pm »

The excuses are just stupid because we have been good enough the last three years to be a program ready to break into the elite.  We should have won at least nine each of the last three years.  We just are incredibly poorly coached during games and don't take advantage of our opportunities.


No buddy...:: there are two groups here and they are in every thread and they are to be pitied:

1) whoa is us we can't recruit to lil ollle arkansas

2) whoa is us we are In the SEC west



They make me vomit a little here every day. No pride. No expectations. No hope. No balls. Our program can be as great as the fans (payers) expect it to be. I hate quitters more than I hate scam artists.





Proof?????!??? The op has a legitimate post and question and hog "fans" reply with 30 excuses why it's impossible..... I seriously pity you all.
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MuskogeeHogFan

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Re: For those who like to predict seasons based upon averages
« Reply #32 on: August 11, 2017, 08:49:38 pm »


No buddy...:: there are two groups here and they are in every thread and they are to be pitied:

1) whoa is us we can't recruit to lil ollle arkansas

2) whoa is us we are In the SEC west



They make me vomit a little here every day. No pride. No expectations. No hope. No balls. Our program can be as great as the fans (payers) expect it to be. I hate quitters more than I hate scam artists.





Proof?????!??? The op has a legitimate post and question and hog "fans" reply with 30 excuses why it's impossible..... I seriously pity you all.

Lighten up, Francis. You are straining your eyes looking down that incredibly long nose of yours, at everyone else. Most everyone understands our failures and the reasons for those failures. They will either get corrected and Bielema will stay, or they won't and you'll get your wish to have a different HC. I would caution you though, be careful what you ask for. You may not get exactly what you want.
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HamSammich

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Re: For those who like to predict seasons based upon averages
« Reply #33 on: August 11, 2017, 09:07:35 pm »

Francis is a good name. That's not an insult. The insult is you hog "fans" expecting mediocrity..... I'll retire from this thread as there is a core differentiation in constitution. Gl guys.
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colbs

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Re: For those who like to predict seasons based upon averages
« Reply #34 on: August 11, 2017, 09:31:02 pm »


No buddy...:: there are two groups here and they are in every thread and they are to be pitied:

1) whoa is us we can't recruit to lil ollle arkansas

2) whoa is us we are In the SEC west



They make me vomit a little here every day. No pride. No expectations. No hope. No balls. Our program can be as great as the fans (payers) expect it to be. I hate quitters more than I hate scam artists.





Proof?????!??? The op has a legitimate post and question and hog "fans" reply with 30 excuses why it's impossible..... I seriously pity you all.
You can tell yourself whatever you want but Arkansas isn't going to start pulling top classes out of nowhere, no matter the coach minus Saban.  There is a correlation with distance and where kids sign.  Sure some go far away but the majority of the kids stay within 300 miles from where they are from.   

Now I believe Arkansas can be a program that can be a top 15 team on average every and contend for the SEC every 4 years.  I also believe over time if they built a winning tradition recruiting to Arkansas would be easier.  Arkansas is a school that needs stability and a strong foundation.  It's not an overnight fix like Bama, Ohio St, or USC-W.

I don't think the majority of people on here are accepting mediocrity.  I just think we are being realistic and realize Arkansas is a tougher place to win than other schools.  IMO when BB was hired you needed to give him 4-5 years.  It's tougher now than ever to hire a proven P5 coach and a up and comer is a gamble.  So you risk setting back the program further than it is.  I'm sure some people think it can't get worse but it can. 

If BB doesn't do something in the next two years then I agree that he was given every opportunity to win here and it's time move on.  Either way the program overall is better than when he took over for JLS.  So hopefully the next coach is able to build on that.
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MuskogeeHogFan

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Re: For those who like to predict seasons based upon averages
« Reply #35 on: August 11, 2017, 09:32:04 pm »

Francis is a good name. That's not an insult. The insult is you hog "fans" expecting mediocrity..... I'll retire from this thread as there is a core differentiation in constitution. Gl guys.

No one expects mediocrity and I don't think that anyone would tell you that this is our goal. Some posters are just a lot more rational and reasonable than you. You think that simply "demanding" more wins will equate to getting us to that point. It takes more than that. And again, you aren't "all knowing and all seeing", you are just another poster with an opinion. No more, no less.
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