SDS predicts 9-3

[Arkansas Fan]

You bring up an interesting point that could affect how Auburn does during conference play.

Stidham will get tested in week 2 in Clemson, SC.  The Defensive Line Stidham will be facing in Clemson is no joke.

How did I know you were going to bring up Clemson? What's y'alls record gonna be in the ACC this year?

[bennyl08]

sure 50/50 over  10 years, but 25% over the last four.  We are 1-3 CBB vs. CM and that win was Arkansas' best team under CBB and Auburn's worst team under CM at home and it went to four overtimes.  Auburn in the last four years has gone to the Natty and the Sugar.  I agree that traditionally Arkansas is pretty comparable with Auburn, but Lately that trend hasn't been the case

Figured you'd focus on the 10 year stat and ignore the more recent history.

[JOKERHOG]

"I'll have what they're having..."

Yeah, they must not have seen the mizz and vtech games at the end of last year

[MuskogeeHogFan]

Yeah, they must not have seen the mizz and vtech games at the end of last year

Yeah, because that has so much to do with how the team performs this coming season.

[JOKERHOG]

Yeah, because that has so much to do with how the team performs this coming season.

You won't admit that a bowl win carries positive momentum into the next season?  If so, the opposite would also be true. 

[MuskogeeHogFan]

You won't admit that a bowl win carries positive momentum into the next season?  If so, the opposite would also be true. 

It can, but it can also carry with it an over-confident mindset. Seen it happen before. The best thing is a re-set of the attitude. Last year is over, it is a new season and nothing that happened last season has to effect how you play the coming season.

[JOKERHOG]

It can, but it can also carry with it an over-confident mindset. Seen it happen before. The best thing is a re-set of the attitude. Last year is over, it is a new season and nothing that happened last season has to effect how you play the coming season.

One way to find out.  I will go 6-6, 7-5 if we stop the aggie run at 5.  Aggie game is a must win to keep the fans engaged for the rest of the season. 

[MuskogeeHogFan]

One way to find out.  I will go 6-6, 7-5 if we stop the aggie run at 5.  Aggie game is a must win to keep the fans engaged for the rest of the season. 

Awww now come on, you know that isn't really true. What if Arkansas loses to A&M and Alabama but doesn't lose another game or just loses one more regular season game? You think they lose the fan base if they go 10-2 or 9-3 despite losing to A&M? Come on, man.

[JOKERHOG]

Awww now come on, you know that isn't really true. What if Arkansas loses to A&M and Alabama but doesn't lose another game or just loses one more regular season game? You think they lose the fan base if they go 10-2 or 9-3 despite losing to A&M? Come on, man.

If we don't beat aggies we don't win 9 or 10.  Fans are tired of the same early loss to an average team.  Remember, Sumlin is on the hotseat and somehow, BB is not even though sumlin is 5-0 against us. 

[MuskogeeHogFan]

If we don't beat aggies we don't win 9 or 10.  Fans are tired of the same early loss to an average team.  Remember, Sumlin is on the hotseat and somehow, BB is not even though sumlin is 5-0 against us. 

Thing is, neither you nor I know that to be true. We can project all that we want and so much of it is based in preconceived bias. Yes, we need to beat A&M, no doubt about that. But a loss to them isn't the end of the season. I've seen too many other strange turns that no one could have predicted. I'll just let it play out knowing that we can't accurately predict anything. But I know this, let us lose to A&M and Alabama, people will naturally get down on the program, especially on Hogville. But let them win out thereafter or only lose one more, and the hate will subside.

I will say this, I think that we beat Auburn and A&M this season. That should make many happy unless those are the only two SEC games we win.

[BigBrandonAllenFan]

15-0 with a trail of dead kulaks in the rear view mirror.

[TheRazorback500]

9-3 would be a welcome surprise from my original prediction of 8-4. I figured we'll lose to the Tide, Auburn, LSU, and either TCU, A&M, or South Carolina. It would be awesome to beat all three.

[Al Boarland]

It's good to finally see a thread where someone isn't saying we coulda, shoulda, woulda won x number of games last season.

[urkillnmesmalls]

Crack is whack, we lost to Mizzou 

If you're going to drink Kool-Aid, why not 10 and 2?

With our only losses to the Tigers and Tide

Bringing Razorback faithful, along for the ride

With a snap of the fingers, from my dream I awake

And we lose to the Aggies, again, for GOD'S sake...
 

[LZH]

I'll take 9-3 right now....

[hogcard1964]

Going to Tuscaloosa 5-0 would be sweet.

+1000

College Gameday as well.

[DLUXHOG]

Crack is whack, we lost to Mizzou 

If you're going to drink Kool-Aid, why not 10 and 2?

With our only losses to the Tigers and Tide

Bringing Razorback faithful, along for the ride

With a snap of the fingers, from my dream I awake

And we lose to the Aggies, again, for GOD'S sake...
 

you're a poet,
and didn't know it....

[LRHawg]

Crack is whack, we lost to Mizzou 

If you're going to drink Kool-Aid, why not 10 and 2?

With our only losses to the Tigers and Tide

Bringing Razorback faithful, along for the ride

With a snap of the fingers, from my dream I awake

And we lose to the Aggies, again, for GOD'S sake...
 

9-3 ... Without RWIII?

Just can't see that as a possibility.

The Corndogs and the Tide are foregone conclusions,

So let's not hold onto our Saban-slayer delusions.

I think Ole Missus, will have quit by mid-season,

So a blow-out, barn-stormer there is within reason.

But when Ol' Saint Gus comes, I do have a hunch,

We should probably start preparing for another gut punch.

I also can't give Bret the benefit of the doubt,

that this year we finally pull the Jerry Bowl win out.

No kool-aid for me at least, not yet,

put Kenny Trill and Sumlin to the sword,  and I'll be quickly hedging my bets...

[RazorWest]

Crack is whack, we lost to Mizzou 

If you're going to drink Kool-Aid, why not 10 and 2?

With our only losses to the Tigers and Tide

Bringing Razorback faithful, along for the ride

With a snap of the fingers, from my dream I awake

And we lose to the Aggies, again, for GOD'S sake...

Sucks to be in a division where 10 - 2 might still mean 3rd in the division.

[GuvHog]

Sucks to be in a division where 10 - 2 might still mean 3rd in the division.

Or it could mean finishing second in the West and going to the Sugar Bowl as the Hogs did in 2010.

[GuvHog]

You are correct.  Stidham has only had ONE injury in his college career and some on here equate that to "injury history."  I don't consider ONE season ending injury as propensity to injuries.

There have been several pundits who have openly questioned the possibility of Stidham making it through a complete season at Auburn uninjured.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

You are correct.  Stidham has only had ONE injury in his college career and some on here equate that to "injury history."  I don't consider ONE season ending injury as propensity to injuries.

Nope, back injury vs. Oklahoma and then a broken ankle vs. Oklahoma State. But as far as I know, that is it.

Over 600 days since he last appeared in a game. Laid out one entire year while going to JC in Texas.

[factchecker]

we have lost our starting running back and a potential back up for the season.

Who is the potential back up at running back that we lost for the season?

[The Kig]

9-3 would exceed the expectations of most, even on Hogville.  I don't see us losing to Ole Miss unless we choke on the smoke from the Grove in flames and Auburn boat raced us last year.  No idea how we continue to lose to ATM, but until we break that streak it's hard to predict a W.... even with the dumpster fire Sumlin has created.

If the new D scheme clicks (tough ask in first year), 9-3 is possible.  If it doesn't, 7-5 or 8-4 are much more likely.   Just happy to see that someone outside the program sees a path to 9 wins. 

[GuvHog]

Our defense will have to be improved to be horrible. We graduated pretty much our entire receiving core, and we have lost our starting running back and a potential back up for the season. If you think this team is going 9-3 you are nukin futz. I'm not buying it.

You underestimate Devwah Whaley and David Williams.

By the way, Hammonds was pegged as a likely starter at WR and would have likely seen only situational duty at RB. There is a possibility that he'll be back for the TCU game.

[factchecker]

Hammonds had surgery. He will be back in about 5 weeks but it's doubtful he could be a factor when he does return.

Hammonds is a receiver and will be back by mid season (at the latest).   He was also pegged to be a starter and possibly a return man.  He will have an impact when he returns. Amazing how someone who claims to be a fan and a realist don't know jack about this team.

[Hoggish1]

https://www.saturdaydownsouth.com/arkansas-football/sds-crystal-ball-predicting-every-game-arkansas-2017/

They missed it by one:  10-2

[The Kig]

One thing is most likely for certain, _______ will likely win one it maybe shouldnt, and almost certainly will lose a game that it shouldnt. Happens every year

Said almost every team in history.

[factchecker]

Said almost every team in history.

Yep.

Florida probably looks back at their game against us and wonders what happened.

Louisville probably doesn't understand how they got beat by a team who got beat by Southern Miss (Kentucky).

[gchamblee]

9-3 would be worth....about $4M per year.

How much is 10-2 worth?

[gchamblee]

The last time we played TCU in Fayetteville, the Hogs beat TCU 53-10....  Hogs historical record is 43-23-2 (64.7% winning record over TCU)..   Hogs should win handily....

Stats like that mean nothing. New coaches, new players, new schemes.

[factchecker]

Dude, he got moved to reciever out of necessity. Our recievers aren't getting it done. Even BB eluded to that the other day. And he was going to play Rb some.

Hammonds was going to run the ball in special packages.  He would have gotten the ball primarily on jet sweeps.  We probably would have lined him up in the wildhog formation like we did last year as well.  He was not the backup runningback by any means.  The depth chart was listed as the following:  Devwah Whaley, David Williams, Chase Hayden, and Maleek Williams. 

[jgphillips3]

Here's a question.  Has anyone on here changed their assessment of our W/L record lately.  I have felt for months we would be 8-4 with the potential for 9 wins if the defense gels quick enough.  I only see 2 teams that straight up are better (Bama/LSU) and 6 teams I think we beat and four teams I think we go 2-2 against (A&M, Auburn, TCU & South Carolina). I see no reason to deviate from 8-4 just yet...depending on the defensive performance early in the season.

[gchamblee]

Dude, he got moved to reciever out of necessity. Our recievers aren't getting it done. Even BB eluded to that the other day. And he was going to play Rb some.

At least he didn't allude the question.

[Razorback de Nosferatu]

I don't think nine is that big of a stretch.

An Arkansas team with a first year starting QB and one of the most dismal defenses I've ever seen should've won nine last year.  That includes a bowl win, I know.  Just saying.

This year, I know I'm not alone in suggesting that the key to nine wins is TCU/A&M.  If the Hogs start the year 3-0, there is a very clear path to nine wins, and really, taking that path just means getting back to the late season form that Bielema's Razorback teams were known for before last year's bizarre final act. 

[DLUXHOG]

These Hogs will surprise us all....(in a positive way) this season....

[The Kig]

Here's a question.  Has anyone on here changed their assessment of our W/L record lately.  I have felt for months we would be 8-4 with the potential for 9 wins if the defense gels quick enough.  I only see 2 teams that straight up are better (Bama/LSU) and 6 teams I think we beat and four teams I think we go 2-2 against (A&M, Auburn, TCU & South Carolina). I see no reason to deviate from 8-4 just yet...depending on the defensive performance early in the season.

Almost verbatim what I think, except I see Bama as the only team that I don't see us having much of a chance.  LSU played lights out to get coach O the job, but will the honeymoon be over?  Defense is deep, but Key may be MIA and they did lose some NFL talent.  Their OL has a lot of changes...which we know firsthand can be problematic.  Having said that, on paper they should be better...but we seem to do well against more talented LSU teams.  Also, I throw TCU into the W bucket.  Just don't see them being competitive with us this year. 

As you point out, it all comes down to how long it takes us to transition to the 3-4.  It better suits our players on paper, but will that translate on the field.  LSU switched to 3-4 last year and were a salty defense, but they had Aranda and a stockpile of 4-5* talent. 

8-4... But I see a path to 9/10 and 6/7...C'mon DEFENSE!!!

[MuskogeeHogFan]

Almost verbatim what I think, except I see Bama as the only team that I don't see us having much of a chance.  LSU played lights out to get coach O the job, but will the honeymoon be over?  Defense is deep, but Key may be MIA and they did lose some NFL talent.  Their OL has a lot of changes...which we know firsthand can be problematic.  Having said that, on paper they should be better...but we seem to do well against more talented LSU teams.  Also, I throw TCU into the W bucket.  Just don't see them being competitive with us this year. 

As you point out, it all comes down to how long it takes us to transition to the 3-4.  It better suits our players on paper, but will that translate on the field.  LSU switched to 3-4 last year and were a salty defense, but they had Aranda and a stockpile of 4-5* talent. 

8-4... But I see a path to 9/10 and 6/7...C'mon DEFENSE!!!

I thought LSU could probably be chalked up as a pretty certain loss until I started looking at them more closely.

They lose about 75% of their career starts out of the Secondary, 82% from the D-Line and 69% of their career starts at LB and that is assuming that Arden Key eventually returns.

Now they have problems with depth at the very least on their O-Line where they lose 69% of their career starts (returning just 2 OL starters and neither at Center).

They lose 79% of their career starts at WR along with 58% of their receiving yard and 50% of their receiving TD's.

We know how they have had problems at QB in the past so the lone bright spot for them is that they return all but one of their RB's from last year and 68% of their RB rushing yards.

But that's just about where the bright spot ends.

Of course they will have 9 games to get ready for us and gain experience but the bad news for them is that they could be beat up by the time they get to us with Florida, Auburn, Ole Miss, and an Open Date in October and then Alabama the week before we meet.

They could easily have 3-4 losses before they get to us.

[jst01]

to go 9-3, you have to win TCU and A&M.  At Bama & LSU are losses, if your 3rd loss is TCU or A&M, that means going undefeated on the rest of the road games, which is very very unlikely.  9-4 with a bowl win would be a great year in my opinion.

[Tusks]

Sounds like a smart lady.

Whatever gets you through the night....enjoy her.

[Youngsta71701]

Hammonds had surgery. He will be back in about 5 weeks but it's doubtful he could be a factor when he does return.

Why not? He came back after pretty much the same injury last year on the other leg and looked pretty good.

[HogMantheIntruder]

Dude, he got moved to reciever out of necessity. Our recievers aren't getting it done. Even BB eluded to that the other day. And he was going to play Rb some.

Wrong. He got moved so that we could get the ball to one of our more explosive players and have a hybrid receiver/back. As far as BB's comments, he was alluding to the fact that the newcomers were doing really well, and that Pettway and Stewart needed to step up their games or get passed on the depth chart. That's more of a compliment to the new guys and motivation for the others.

[WizardofhOgZ]

https://www.saturdaydownsouth.com/ole-miss-football/sds-crystal-ball-predicting-every-game-ole-miss-2017/

[rhames]

It's not out of the realm or possibility

[MuskogeeHogFan]

https://www.saturdaydownsouth.com/ole-miss-football/sds-crystal-ball-predicting-every-game-ole-miss-2017/

That may be the dumbest prediction I've read.

Ole Miss Wins: S. Alabama, UT-Martin, Vandy, Arkansas, La-Lafayette and Texas A&M

Ole Miss Losses: California, Alabama, Auburn, LSU, Kentucky and Miss State

Someone at SDS must have been drinking heavily or were totally worn out and just wanted to get through this list of picks in order to come up with little bit of, analysis?

[The Kig]

I thought LSU could probably be chalked up as a pretty certain loss until I started looking at them more closely.

Of course they will have 9 games to get ready for us and gain experience but the bad news for them is that they could be beat up by the time they get to us with Florida, Auburn, Ole Miss, and an Open Date in October and then Alabama the week before we meet.

They could easily have 3-4 losses before they get to us.

I don't think they are Bama level deep with talent, but any team would struggle replacing that much production.   Fortunately for them, their schedule gives them 5 scrimmages to gel before the meat grinder.  If they do lose 3 of 4 coming up to our game, the wheels could come off or be very shakey. 

Going into that game will be the 8th straight week of games for us, so we could be tired/beat up as well. Or we could be rolling by then and ready to throw down.   If we come into that game with only 2 losses, it could be a big game for both teams in terms of bowl. 

[Youngsta71701]

Yeah, they must not have seen the mizz and vtech games at the end of last year

Last year was last year. This year is this year. 2016 is 2016. 2017 will be 2017. Each year is it's own year my friend. You hear coaches say that all the time. And though it may sound cliché it really is the truth believe it or not. Although I do believe in momentum I also believe that each year is a season in it's own. Different players, different coaches, and different circumstances.

[DLUXHOG]

Last year was last year. This year is this year. 2016 is 2016. 2017 will be 2017. Each year is it's own year my friend. You hear coaches say that all the time. And though it may sound cliché it really is the truth believe it or not. Although I do believe in momentum I also believe that each year is a season in it's own. Different players, different coaches, and different circumstances.

What do you expect?   Many on this board still judge the Hogs based on the outcome of the "big shootout", over 48 years ago...

[Mike_e]

We're going to win 10-12.

Actually even the mighty bama can be had.  Play em close and if their sophomore Qb throws a pick at the wrong time (for them) we're off to the races.

[DeltaBoy]

https://www.saturdaydownsouth.com/arkansas-football/sds-crystal-ball-predicting-every-game-arkansas-2017/

Some one drinking the Kool-Aid!