New kicker?

[Potosihog]

In reading the scrimmage notes I see the following quote:
"Freshman Blake Mazza converted field-goal attempts of 36, 25, 24 and 23 yards, before hitting a 30-yard to end the scrimmage"

Have we seen a change at kicker? 

[ricepig]

In reading the scrimmage notes I see the following quote:
"Freshman Blake Mazza converted field-goal attempts of 36, 25, 24 and 23 yards, before hitting a 30-yard to end the scrimmage"

Have we seen a change at kicker? 

Nope, Hedlund is out with a small injury, back mid-week.

[oldfart]

a groun injury to a kicker doesnt sound that good

[HOGINTENNESSEE]

Hopefully Cole will show out the next 2 years and Mazza can RS and development into an quality kicker as well

[Boss Hog in the Arkansas]

Hopefully Cole will show out the next 2 years and Mazza can RS and development into an quality kicker as well

Sounds like Mazza already is a quality kicker lol. But yes I hope Hedlund really steps up to the plate this season.

[colbs]

BB said a week or so ago Hedlund wasn't looking great during fall camp and it's an open competition pretty much.

[RazorPiggie]

May need to pull Hedlunds scholly if he doesn't pull it together this year.

[HOGINTENNESSEE]

Sounds like Mazza already is a quality kicker lol. But yes I hope Hedlund really steps up to the plate this season.

Let's see how well he does 40+ first

[Wildhog]

May need to pull Hedlunds scholly if he doesn't pull it together this year.

Honestly.  We're light on schollies, as it is.

[onebadrubi]

Is hedlund and Johnson the only kickers on the team with scholarships?  Anyone know?


I did hear someone on the radio say that at the scrimmage we had two different kickers putting 5-8 yards deep in the end zone on a consistent basis.... WE HAVE MISSED THAT!!!!  If thats the case, we will see this come in to play as soon as TCU.  It will tremendously help our KO coverage teams gets a few more steps down the field if they bring it out. 

[Wildhog]

Is hedlund and Johnson the only kickers on the team with scholarships?  Anyone know?


I did hear someone on the radio say that at the scrimmage we had two different kickers putting 5-8 yards deep in the end zone on a consistent basis.... WE HAVE MISSED THAT!!!!  If thats the case, we will see this come in to play as soon as TCU.  It will tremendously help our KO coverage teams gets a few more steps down the field if they bring it out. 

I'll believe it when I see it in a game.  We've heard the same thing the last couple of years, IIRC.

I agree, though.  We desperately need it.

[RazorPiggie]

Is hedlund and Johnson the only kickers on the team with scholarships?  Anyone know?


I did hear someone on the radio say that at the scrimmage we had two different kickers putting 5-8 yards deep in the end zone on a consistent basis.... WE HAVE MISSED THAT!!!!  If thats the case, we will see this come in to play as soon as TCU.  It will tremendously help our KO coverage teams gets a few more steps down the field if they bring it out. 

I believe they are the only two.

[rljjr]

Is hedlund and Johnson the only kickers on the team with scholarships?  Anyone know?


I did hear someone on the radio say that at the scrimmage we had two different kickers putting 5-8 yards deep in the end zone on a consistent basis.... WE HAVE MISSED THAT!!!!  If thats the case, we will see this come in to play as soon as TCU.  It will tremendously help our KO coverage teams gets a few more steps down the field if they bring it out. 

It has always seemed to me they liked kicking to the corner inside the 5 to force a return we could stop before they got out to the 25. I could be wrong.  I just saw too many that went deep in the end zone to think they couldn't do it every time.

[Ex-Trumpet]

It has always seemed to me they liked kicking to the corner inside the 5 to force a return we could stop before they got out to the 25. I could be wrong.  I just saw too many that went deep in the end zone to think they couldn't do it every time.

IMO, I'd give them the ball every single time at the 25.

[Potosihog]

Ex-Trumpet, me too.  Give it to them at the 25.  CBB said in a press conference (I believe last year) that his preference was to kick it to the goal line or just outside.  He said statistics show an overall field position advantage when doing so rather than giving it to them at the 25.

I don't disagree with the facts.  But my question is what do the statistics show about scoring drives.  If on average a team starts at the 25 how many fg/td do they score out of 100 possessions.  If the average is 21.5 starting position but they frequently start at the 30 or better how does that effect the fg/td per 100 possessions?

I guess I could live with this approach easier if we would avoid it:

1. On the first kick off--too much risk for setting the momentum of the game.  A big return here can put a team behind the 8 ball too soon.

2. At the end of the game when we have the lead and there are 3 minutes or less on the clock.  How many times through the years have we "sky kicked" and watched the other team come back to win because they only needed 25-35 yards of offense to get into fg range?

JMO

[onebadrubi]

I'll believe it when I see it in a game.  We've heard the same thing the last couple of years, IIRC.

I agree, though.  We desperately need it.

We hear a lot of the same each year, I personally dont remember hearing that the past couple of years, but I could believe it. 

[AugustaHog]

Ex-Trumpet, me too.  Give it to them at the 25.  CBB said in a press conference (I believe last year) that his preference was to kick it to the goal line or just outside.  He said statistics show an overall field position advantage when doing so rather than giving it to them at the 25.

I don't disagree with the facts.  But my question is what do the statistics show about scoring drives.  If on average a team starts at the 25 how many fg/td do they score out of 100 possessions.  If the average is 21.5 starting position but they frequently start at the 30 or better how does that effect the fg/td per 100 possessions?

I guess I could live with this approach easier if we would avoid it:

1. On the first kick off--too much risk for setting the momentum of the game.  A big return here can put a team behind the 8 ball too soon.

2. At the end of the game when we have the lead and there are 3 minutes or less on the clock.  How many times through the years have we "sky kicked" and watched the other team come back to win because they only needed 25-35 yards of offense to get into fg range?

JMO

He may be right that with sound coverage and accurate kicking, there is a statistical advantage with the field position.  We have shown the ability to do neither of those things.  If you can boot that sucker through the back of the end zone, I say go for it.  Take the possibility of the big play out of the equation. 

[DiamondHogFan]

As far as the touchback thing goes, it is strange how they moved the starting field position from the 20 to the 25 in the last few years.  With all the focus on safety and eliminating chances for injury, it seems like making it less beneficial for a team to kick a touchback goes against that.  Kickoff/Kickoff returns see some of the most violent collisions in the sport.  I'm not for touch football, but it just seems like things are backwards in regards to a touchback compared to other aspects of injury prevention (targeting rules).

I don't know why that just came to mind.  Just a thought that popped in my head that I'm sure has been discussed at length.  Carry on.

[a0ashle]

As far as the touchback thing goes, it is strange how they moved the starting field position from the 20 to the 25 in the last few years.  With all the focus on safety and eliminating chances for injury, it seems like making it less beneficial for a team to kick a touchback goes against that.  Kickoff/Kickoff returns see some of the most violent collisions in the sport.  I'm not for touch football, but it just seems like things are backwards in regards to a touchback compared to other aspects of injury prevention (targeting rules).

I don't know why that just came to mind.  Just a thought that popped in my head that I'm sure has been discussed at length.  Carry on.

It wasn't thought through fully and they mistakenly made kicking the ball at the goal line more rewarding for the kicking team. They should have realized that only the kicking team is fully in control of how a kickoff plays out, the receiving team is dependent on the kick.

Another interesting topic...how long and how much will they de-emphasize KOs until it is no longer interesting and how long before it's removed all together?

[onebadrubi]

It wasn't thought through fully and they mistakenly made kicking the ball at the goal line more rewarding for the kicking team. They should have realized that only the kicking team is fully in control of how a kickoff plays out, the receiving team is dependent on the kick.

Another interesting topic...how long and how much will they de-emphasize KOs until it is no longer interesting and how long before it's removed all together?

I think the safety people already want to get rid of the KO, but you see every year it play a factor in a few key games.  It would probably help teams like arkansas against the bama's of the world.  Seems like all the way back to early Petrino years they had an average starting position about 10-15 yards better than us. 

[bennyl08]

As far as the touchback thing goes, it is strange how they moved the starting field position from the 20 to the 25 in the last few years.  With all the focus on safety and eliminating chances for injury, it seems like making it less beneficial for a team to kick a touchback goes against that.  Kickoff/Kickoff returns see some of the most violent collisions in the sport.  I'm not for touch football, but it just seems like things are backwards in regards to a touchback compared to other aspects of injury prevention (targeting rules).

I don't know why that just came to mind.  Just a thought that popped in my head that I'm sure has been discussed at length.  Carry on.

It was a compromise and it has worked so far.

The idea was to de-emphasize kick returns and increase the % of touchbacks. To accomplish this, they simultaneously moved the kickoff spot 5 yards closer to increase the number of kicks into the endzone. However, to compromise, they move the touchback out to the 25.

Let's look to the numbers to see what the actual impact was. First, kick returns. From 2012 to 2016, the highest number of returned kickoffs by a team was 70. The number of teams with 50+ KR's on the season ranged from 14 to 21. From 2008 through 2011, the minimum number of KR's that the team with the most had was 81. The number of teams with 50+ KR's on the season ranged from 71 to 83.

This suggests that the number of touchbacks similarly increased. The number of teams with 30+ touchbacks on the season ranged from 37 to 53 from 2012 through 2016, with 37 being the first year after the rule change and 53 teams hitting that mark each of the past two seasons. In contrast, from 2008 through 2011, the number of teams with 30+ touchbacks in a given season ranged from 2 to 6. Looking at the team ranked ~60th for a median estimate, before the rule change, the median value was b/w 9 and 15% of KO's going for a touchback. After the rule change, that value changed to 35-40% of kicks resulting in touchbacks.

[98hogs]

Do we have anyone that can get the ball into the end zone on kick offs?

[onebadrubi]

Do we have anyone that can get the ball into the end zone on kick offs?

Supposedly

[Wildhog]

Do we have anyone that can get the ball into the end zone on kick offs?

[a0ashle]

It was a compromise and it has worked so far.

The idea was to de-emphasize kick returns and increase the % of touchbacks. To accomplish this, they simultaneously moved the kickoff spot 5 yards closer to increase the number of kicks into the endzone. However, to compromise, they move the touchback out to the 25.

Let's look to the numbers to see what the actual impact was. First, kick returns. From 2012 to 2016, the highest number of returned kickoffs by a team was 70. The number of teams with 50+ KR's on the season ranged from 14 to 21. From 2008 through 2011, the minimum number of KR's that the team with the most had was 81. The number of teams with 50+ KR's on the season ranged from 71 to 83.

This suggests that the number of touchbacks similarly increased. The number of teams with 30+ touchbacks on the season ranged from 37 to 53 from 2012 through 2016, with 37 being the first year after the rule change and 53 teams hitting that mark each of the past two seasons. In contrast, from 2008 through 2011, the number of teams with 30+ touchbacks in a given season ranged from 2 to 6. Looking at the team ranked ~60th for a median estimate, before the rule change, the median value was b/w 9 and 15% of KO's going for a touchback. After the rule change, that value changed to 35-40% of kicks resulting in touchbacks.

Nice, I had assumed otherwise, but then again I'm a Razorback fan so my sample set may be skewed.

[ErieHog]

I'll believe it when I see it in a game.  We've heard the same thing the last couple of years, IIRC.

I agree, though.  We desperately need it.

As we have said for years, this is a strategic choice, not a lack of ability.

[ErieHog]

It was a compromise and it has worked so far.

The idea was to de-emphasize kick returns and increase the % of touchbacks. To accomplish this, they simultaneously moved the kickoff spot 5 yards closer to increase the number of kicks into the endzone. However, to compromise, they move the touchback out to the 25.

Let's look to the numbers to see what the actual impact was. First, kick returns. From 2012 to 2016, the highest number of returned kickoffs by a team was 70. The number of teams with 50+ KR's on the season ranged from 14 to 21. From 2008 through 2011, the minimum number of KR's that the team with the most had was 81. The number of teams with 50+ KR's on the season ranged from 71 to 83.

This suggests that the number of touchbacks similarly increased. The number of teams with 30+ touchbacks on the season ranged from 37 to 53 from 2012 through 2016, with 37 being the first year after the rule change and 53 teams hitting that mark each of the past two seasons. In contrast, from 2008 through 2011, the number of teams with 30+ touchbacks in a given season ranged from 2 to 6. Looking at the team ranked ~60th for a median estimate, before the rule change, the median value was b/w 9 and 15% of KO's going for a touchback. After the rule change, that value changed to 35-40% of kicks resulting in touchbacks.

This is another area where the Bielema philosophy reflects the thinking of someone like Belichick who is exploiting the rule change-- and this is something Bielema has mentioned discussing with NE on his last visit there.    The odds are counterintuitive-- the number of touchbacks may increase, but it is because coaches don't play rationally.

The 5 yard bonus works out over the aggregate to be a bigger advantage to the receiving team than returning a kick.   

[DiamondHogFan]

It was a compromise and it has worked so far.

The idea was to de-emphasize kick returns and increase the % of touchbacks. To accomplish this, they simultaneously moved the kickoff spot 5 yards closer to increase the number of kicks into the endzone. However, to compromise, they move the touchback out to the 25.

Let's look to the numbers to see what the actual impact was. First, kick returns. From 2012 to 2016, the highest number of returned kickoffs by a team was 70. The number of teams with 50+ KR's on the season ranged from 14 to 21. From 2008 through 2011, the minimum number of KR's that the team with the most had was 81. The number of teams with 50+ KR's on the season ranged from 71 to 83.

This suggests that the number of touchbacks similarly increased. The number of teams with 30+ touchbacks on the season ranged from 37 to 53 from 2012 through 2016, with 37 being the first year after the rule change and 53 teams hitting that mark each of the past two seasons. In contrast, from 2008 through 2011, the number of teams with 30+ touchbacks in a given season ranged from 2 to 6. Looking at the team ranked ~60th for a median estimate, before the rule change, the median value was b/w 9 and 15% of KO's going for a touchback. After the rule change, that value changed to 35-40% of kicks resulting in touchbacks.

Good info.  Thanks.

[a0ashle]

http://www.advancedfootballanalytics.com/index.php/home/stats/stats-explained/expected-points-and-epa-explained




This chart explains the strategy. If you took every set of downs in CFB and mapped where 1st down started and how many points were eventually scored, you can then average the amount points scored by yardline. Notice how inside the 20 (80+ yards) the average is close to 0 and even goes negative. That said, if you can't get them down inside the 20 you don't benefit.

p.s. This data is for NFL but CFB probably looks similar enough.

[azhog10]

I'll believe it when I see it in a game.  We've heard the same thing the last couple of years, IIRC.

I agree, though.  We desperately need it.

Well, idk what Sam Irwin Hill did but he was putting it deep deep into the endzone for the cowboys the other night. Never did that for us.

[factchecker]

Outside of Hocker we haven't had a kicker consistently get us touchbacks:

Touchbacks per season:

2008 - 1
2009 - 4
2010 - 15
2011 - 40
2012 - 39
2013 - 34
2014 - 18 (6 by Sam Irwin Hill - we had 4 different kickers that season)
2015 - 11
2016 - 15