First coach fired betting odds- 2017 edition

[WilsonHog]

Couple of things:

(1) Any poster who has been paying attention at all the last four+ years has to understand that Jeff Long gave Coach Bielema five or six years to build a program at UA. That's obvious from Bret's comments and from our athletic director's words and actions. Now, you can argue why that shouldn't be, but you have about as much control over whether that is as you do over what time of day it is. Good luck with that.

(2) Two posters could tell me the exact same thing, and I'll believe one and dismiss the other. Why? Credibility...not of the statement made, but of the poster making it.

[MJ2]

Bigger question-  who will be CBB's replacement?   

[RME]

Bigger question-  who will be CBB's replacement?   

[rhames]

Exactly the point, you just made it in spades.

Contract length means jack. It's about the buyout.

[ShadowHawg]

Bigger question-  who will be CBB's replacement?   

I am not a believer in CBB but I hate when this question is asked while a guy is still the coach of my team.

If CBB works himself off a hot seat, it will most likely mean that the Hogs had a good year. As a Hog fan, that's what matters to me.

Putting out coaching wish lists before a firing is like hoping for the Hogs to fail, IMO.

[ShadowHawg]

Contract length means jack. It's about the buyout.

I saw that quote you are responding to. Couldn't agree more. The length of the original contract has zilch to do with maintaining employment.

[HamSammich]

I'd bet nothing because IF he wins 8 this season he will possibly and I'd dare say probably get an extension and revised contract.

He will get an extension this year.

Can we stick to odds? I like odds threads and you guys are jacking this up.

[hogcard1964]

I think the first coach actually fired will be Kelly of Notre Dame.  Put it this way, I think Kelly is the most likely to actually be fired during the season. 

The only way Bielema gets canned during this season is if he drops one of his "gimme games".  That being a choke job to Florida A & M, New Mexico St. or Coastal Carolina.

However, I do think he has a chance of being the first coach fired at the beginning of 2018.

[HamSammich]

I think the first coach actually fired will be Kelly of Notre Dame.  Put it this way, I think Kelly is the most likely to actually be fired during the season. 

The only way Bielema gets canned during this season is if he drops one of his "gimme games".  That being a choke job to Florida A & M, New Mexico St. or Coastal Carolina.

However, I do think he has a chance of being the first coach fired at the beginning of 2018.

Crap... Kelly is a good one. I think ND is looking for an early fire to get in on coaches before other schools. Their message boards even suggest this. I think you may have won the thread.

[rhames]

I tend to believe the 16 game thing. Not just because rice said it just because it makes sense in terms of what the buyout comes to at that time.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

Which brings the discussion full circle back to this -

Because it seems pretty clear expectations are higher for both Malzahn and Sumlin. 

See: Recruiting classes and talent on campus.

But you look to take any shot that you can, so not unexpected.

[justmakeit2thebcs]

I guess anything posted on a message board is hearsay, unless it includes a public quote from Jeff Long or above.  But it's fact, nevertheless. 

I've never understood why folks have to crap on info they don't have.

Its not a fact, its an opinion of a few donors who may raise a little hell if he doesn't win 16 games.   You get crapped on when you proclaim something as a fact when it is not.   Had you simply said a big donor friend of mine (or insert whomever you wish) thinks CBB needs to win 16 games over the next two years or he needs to go, no toilet paper would be needed.

[rhames]

Every one gets an "extension" when their contract falls under 4 or 5 years because of recruiting.


I don't get why people don't get that.


Buy out is all that matters.

[Inhogswetrust]

There are WAY to many variables and possible scenarios to boldly make a definitive statement of a specific factual number of wins spread out over a two year timeframe. IF coach was to win 12 games then does that mean the next year he only has to win 4? Of course not. He would get a BIG extension and new buyout if he won those 12 this year. What if the reverse happened? WAY to many IF's and variables at this point.

[Hawgboy64]

I would take Lane Kiffin because he can do the dumbest things better than anyone.

[rhames]

I would take Lane Kiffin because he can do the dumbest things better than anyone.

Nice seeing 2 hot reds from GoT

[Boss Hog in the Arkansas]

The truth is, if CBB's plan works, it means we are able to absorb normal losses through graduation.  We shouldn't have 6 win seasons because a QB and a couple of other players finish school.

Agreed. Only thing that could change that is injuries. A couple injuries at key positions and (qb, center, etc) and its all downhill

[widespreadsooie]

But Gus wouldn't be fired until after the Iron Bowl, which means you would lose the bet.  A coach will be fired prior to Halloween.

Ah, very true.

[gchamblee]

I'll tell you why. I've been called out numerous times for posting something as fact without backing it up and rightfully so. I'm not the only one that's been called out for it either so when you post something on here as fact and then refuse to back it up, expect to get called out for it.

Truth

[gchamblee]

Clearly they've never listened to Jeff Long talk about CBB. He would have to have a horrible horrible season, or a mistress. Dude will last another 2 years of 6-7 win seasons minimum, hopefully that doesn't happen.

Ya I do not see that happening. If, however, it does happen I can't even begin to detail how disappointed I will be.

[gchamblee]

I don't know any big donors.  But I've been told the same thing as rice, who does know a big donor, by a well connected former player.

This is why this board isn't what it used to be.  Anyone who tries to tell you something they've been told gets treated like a fricking criminal.

Once upon a time, Frank couldn't fart without someone on Hogville posting about it two minutes later.  Now?  We just keep arguing about opinions to no end.

I'll say it again, and try my damndest to live up to it.  I have no intention of ever sharing another thing on this board.

To avoid that kind of treatment, I would recommend wording changes. "I heard from a reputable source that x will happen" vs "this will happen and it is fact".  It is not a fact unless you can prove it. I do not disagree with what you said would happen, I just took exception to your use of the word fact.

[rljjr]

Come on, this isn't a Travolta film. Nobody is out to "Get Shoaty"... I appreciate your post.

[AirWarren]

Bigger question-  who will be CBB's replacement?   

I hear that some Kentucky radio stations have reported that Petrino would be open to returning home to Arkansas.

[OneTuskOverTheLine™]

Unless we lose to Coastal Carolina (I actually have a year of college from there and really loved the school), he isn't going anywhere.

9-3 is the ceiling for this year. 6-6 is the floor. Too many factors in figuring out which way it will go.

The Chanticleer's.!!!  What is the Carolina's fascination with cock fighting.!?

[hogcard1964]

I don't know any big donors.  But I've been told the same thing as rice, who does know a big donor, by a well connected former player.

This is why this board isn't what it used to be.  Anyone who tries to tell you something they've been told gets treated like a fricking criminal.

Once upon a time, Frank couldn't fart without someone on Hogville posting about it two minutes later.  Now?  We just keep arguing about opinions to no end.

I'll say it again, and try my damndest to live up to it.  I have no intention of ever sharing another thing on this board.

In this instance they're acting as such because there's a lot of them that are strangely supportive of everything the guy does, results be darned.  They're also vested in not being proven wrong about him, they don't want to hear "I told you so".  I know of no other school today that would put up with a coach being under .500 in both conference and overall record after 5 years.  Not to mention the outright embarrassing losses.  When these facts are presented, they attack.  ...and it's personal.

However, as soon as it does happen (he's fired), you can bet your bippy that they'll turn on Bret faster than shi^ through a goose.

[daprospecta]

I think the 16 game win amount over the two years is fair.  Call me crazy but if we go 6-6, I think CBB being fired is not out of the realm of possibility. I don't think it would be because he is a horrible but more to the fact that his way isn't working in the SEC. Let's be honest for a second, Nutt may not have been the best at X's and O's but we did have a special season every once and a while.  I'm not comparing Nutt to CBB but if Nutt can have a special season every 3 or so years, CBB should be able to do the same within 5 years.  I know we aren't Alabama but we should be able to pull off a special season every 3-4 years. 

[BigE_23]

It has nothing to do with "expectations".  It has to do with sticking to the plan.  This year and next will show if CBB's plan will work or not.  Jeff and the PTB know that.

Just because you are short sighted doesn't mean "expectations" have been lowered.  The folks in power simply believe the best way to reach those expectations is through stability and development.

You gotta love those slow developing 5-6 year plans. Wondering, for a friend...were losing to Toledo and Texas Tech and Auburn by 53 (in year 4) and blowing 4th quarter leads ALL a part of this master plan?

[ricepig]

In this instance they're acting as such because there's a lot of them that are strangely supportive of everything the guy does, results be darned.  They're also vested in not being proven wrong about him, they don't want to hear "I told you so".  I know of no other school today that would put up with a coach being under .500 in both conference and overall record after 5 years.  Not to mention the outright embarrassing losses.  When these facts are presented, they attack.  ...and it's personal.

However, as soon as it does happen (he's fired), you can bet your bippy that they'll turn on Bret faster than shi^ through a goose.

4 years.....

[hogcard1964]

I think the 16 game win amount over the two years is fair.  Call me crazy but if we go 6-6, I think CBB being fired is not out of the realm of possibility. I don't think it would be because he is a horrible but more to the fact that his way isn't working in the SEC. Let's be honest for a second, Nutt may not have been the best at X's and O's but we did have a special season every once and a while.  I'm not comparing Nutt to CBB but if Nutt can have a special season every 3 or so years, CBB should be able to do the same within 5 years.  I know we aren't Alabama but we should be able to pull off a special season every 3-4 years.

He's not getting fired.  I think he could literally win his 4 non con games and only go 1-7 in the SEC and end up keeping his job somehow.

The fascination with him is mind boggling.

[hogcard1964]

4 years.....

yea, sorry

4

[hobhog]

He's not getting fired.  I think he could literally win his 4 non con games and only go 1-7 in the SEC and end up keeping his job somehow.

The fascination with him is mind boggling.

yes, your fascination IS mind boggling.....

[hobhog]

In this instance they're acting as such because there's a lot of them that are strangely supportive of everything the guy does, results be darned.  They're also vested in not being proven wrong about him, they don't want to hear "I told you so".  I know of no other school today that would put up with a coach being under .500 in both conference and overall record after 5 years.  Not to mention the outright embarrassing losses.  When these facts are presented, they attack.  ...and it's personal.

However, as soon as it does happen (he's fired), you can bet your bippy that they'll turn on Bret faster than shi^ through a goose.

And you can start fresh with your "he sucks" drum beat on the next guy.....

[sowmonella]

He's not getting fired.  I think he could literally win his 4 non con games and only go 1-7 in the SEC and end up keeping his job somehow.

The fascination with him is mind boggling.

Some of you guys need to come on down to Fayetteville, watch a game and be a fan for a while. Your not an AD or a GM or a HC. Just enjoy watching your team. Whomever that may be. Lighten up. You are not special in a good way. Quit pizzing on everyone's Cheerios.

[hogcard1964]

And you can start fresh with your "he sucks" drum beat on the next guy.....

...I hope not, but if the same guy is in charge of that next hire that was also responsible for the last several, that's more than likely.

[hogcard1964]

Some of you guys need to come on down to Fayetteville, watch a game and be a fan for a while. Your not an AD or a GM or a HC. Just enjoy watching your team. Whomever that may be. Lighten up. You are not special in a good way. Quit pizzing on everyone's Cheerios.

I'll enjoy them no matter who is in charge.

[sowmonella]

I'll enjoy them no matter who is in charge.

There you go again..

[hogcard1964]

^^^^^

Case in point=

attack

[Al Boarland]

There are WAY to many variables and possible scenarios to boldly make a definitive statement of a specific factual number of wins spread out over a two year timeframe. IF coach was to win 12 games then does that mean the next year he only has to win 4? Of course not. He would get a BIG extension and new buyout if he won those 12 this year. What if the reverse happened? WAY to many IF's and variables at this point.

I don't think you have to worry about CBB winning 12 games. The safe assumption is two years of 8 wins. That would be slightly above average for the program.

[Tusks]

I hear that some Kentucky radio stations have reported that Petrino would be open to returning home to Arkansas.

Can we just give the state of kentucky the meth capital of the world award and get it over with already?

[Piggfoot]

 Winning is only one factor in the evaluation of a coach. It may be the most important factor among rabid fans but I believe your average fan will be satisfied if the coach has an average year most years and few if any lower than average years. Throw in the graduation rate and players staying out of trouble and he will be here for a long time.
I doubt if there is a time table requiring he produce a SEC-w division winner or a SEC championship or even a National championship hanging over his head.
Most fans pick a win number out of thin air based on who they guess will be a producer for the team. Since I've joined Hogville there have always been those predicting 9+ win years.

[Inhogswetrust]

To avoid that kind of treatment, I would recommend wording changes. "I heard from a reputable source that x will happen" vs "this will happen and it is fact".  It is not a fact unless you can prove it. I do not disagree with what you said would happen, I just took exception to your use of the word fact.

Bingo. That was my exception as well. Using the word fact does not apply to things that are not known and has no out and a lot of variables.

[Inhogswetrust]

I don't think you have to worry about CBB winning 12 games. The safe assumption is two years of 8 wins. That would be slightly above average for the program.

Aw yes take unknowns and extrapolate that for the future. I wouldn't expect anything less of you.

[hogcard1964]

Winning is only one factor in the evaluation of a coach. It may be the most important factor among rabid fans but I believe your average fan will be satisfied if the coach has an average year most years and few if any lower than average years. Throw in the graduation rate and players staying out of trouble and he will be here for a long time.
I doubt if there is a time table requiring he produce a SEC-w division winner or a SEC championship or even a National championship hanging over his head.
Most fans pick a win number out of thin air based on who they guess will be a producer for the team. Since I've joined Hogville there have always been those predicting 9+ win years.

No, he wasn't hired as a guidance counselor.  He was hired to win football games.  Sorry but that's just a fact.

[Inhogswetrust]

He's not getting fired.  I think he could literally win his 4 non con games and only go 1-7 in the SEC and end up keeping his job somehow.

The fascination with him is mind boggling.

There is no fascination with him. There is only those that know they aren't in charge and someone else will make any personnel decisions in the athletic department. They understand that unless based on something out of the ordinary like hiring your mistress and lying about it to the boss that Jeff has shown over his history to give coaches a lot of time that some fans don't thing he should.

[Inhogswetrust]

No, he wasn't hired as a guidance counselor.  He was hired to win football games.  Sorry but that's just a fact.

Winning is at the top of the list of a coaches job description but it isn't the only thing on the list. In some years winning isn't even at the top. It's all situational and time based.

[ricepig]

No, he wasn't hired as a guidance counselor.  He was hired to win football games.  Sorry but that's just a fact.

Please show me in the contract where it specifies wins, or number of wins, that would be a fact.

[jst01]

Please show me in the contract where it specifies wins, or number of wins, that would be a fact.

its kinda implied..like when a salesman gets hired, his employment contract may not specify the number of sales he must get per year, but everyone knows its his job to make sales consistently and most likely get better at making sales the longer he is there.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

its kinda implied..like when a salesman gets hired, his employment contract may not specify the number of sales he must get per year, but everyone knows its his job to make sales consistently and most likely get better at making sales the longer he is there.

And sometimes you hire a professional salesperson to first, come in and stop the bleeding and then begin to increase sales.

[jst01]

And sometimes you hire a professional salesperson to first, come in and stop the bleeding and then begin to increase sales.

yep. And we are at that "then" point in time.

[ricepig]

its kinda implied..like when a salesman gets hired, his employment contract may not specify the number of sales he must get per year, but everyone knows its his job to make sales consistently and most likely get better at making sales the longer he is there.

So, now we can imply facts? I'm just trying to keep up with all the various rules in this thread, haha. I realize that coaches are hired and fired, usually based on wins and losses, I was just want Card to show me the facts in the contract!!