Alabama Game-Some Perspective-Maybe You'll Be Surprised

[BamaFreak]

I would have thought that too, but do you think that when Tulane played them close that they didn't have their starters in? Wilson was in the entire game and if he was, You can be sure the rest of the starters were as well. Vs. Clemson, the starters were in the whole game. Against W. Kentucky the starters played the first 3 quarters.

Alabama was missing two OL starters for the entire game.  I'm just sayin....

[PolishPigPower]

Sorry, but if anything, those stats made me even more concerned about this weekend.  There is a slight disparity in nearly every column that is slanted to Bama, and that is with Bama having played more games against stiffer competition than we've seen yet.  I don't think it is beyond belief that we pull an upset here, but it won't be because of anything I've seen in that stat list.  Furthermore, there are too many intangibles that we are losing to feel secure in simple numbers.  We have to play better on ST's, win the turnover battle, and become a complete team in four days' time, or we will be 2-1.  With that said, there is a part of me that believes we will do it.

[SpareRib]

For those who think we are going to get hammered and those who are hoping we don't, here is some factual comparisons of per game averages between the two teams. I'll have my comments at the end, but you check this out and decide for yourself.

                      Bama-O     Hogs-D         Hogs-O      Bama-D
Rushing             206.3         114             129.5         42.7
Passing             176.3        187.5            320.5        178.7
Total Offense     382.7        301.5            450.0        221.3
Scoring Off         31.7          25.5              28.0          7.7
T/O's                  1.0           0.0               1.0           1.33
Sacks                 1.33         1.5               4.0            1.67
Tackles For Loss   3.67         6.0               7.0            7.0
Red Zone Eff        .82           .86               .86            .75
3rd Down Conv    54.8%       40.6%          54.2%        26.8%

Alabama has blocked one punt in three games, we have blocked none.

Alabama averages 3.3 QB Hurries per game, we average 4.5.

Alabama averages 1.33 forced fumbles p/game, we average 1.5.

Alabama averages 3.3 pass B/U's per game, we average 5.

Alabama averages scoring 14.3 points in the first quarter, 8 points in the second, 8.3 in the third and 1 point in the fourth quarter. Their opponents have averaged 0 in the first, 4.3 in the second, 2.3 in the third and 1 in the fourth.

Arkansas averages scoring 0 points in the first, 6.5 in the second, 7.5 in the third and 14 in the fourth. Our opponents have averaged 1.5 in the first, 8.5 in the second, 10.5 in the third and 5 points in the fourth.

Alabama's passing offense averages 9.8 yards per reception while we average 13.6 yards per reception. Their rushing offense averages 4.95 yards per attempt while we average 4.54.

In Field Goals, Alabama is 4 for 4 inside the 30, but only 2 for 5 outside the 30(40%). Regrettably, we are 0 for 2 at any yardage.

Alabama's most difficult opponent so far has been Tulane who burned the Alabama secondary for 232 yards with only a 58% completion percentage and 0 INT's. But Tulane never scored a TD and their 6 points came from FG's.

For us to win this game I think we have to do the following:
1. Control the LOS on defense and limit their running game.
2. LB's will have to be active to not only support the run, but be aware of zone responsibilities since their average yardage per completion is only 9.8 yards.
3. Shut them down during the first half. Alabama scores 45.3% of their total points in the first quarter and 25.26% of their points in the second quarter(70.56% of their points) and if the Hogs can do this they will disrupt the Alabama rhythm and game plan.
4. Execute well on the punt/return and kick off/return teams.
5. Hit every FG we line up.
6. Play 4 full quarters of football without stumbling coming out of the blocks.

If we do these things, we will win. If we don't, we will literally give them the game.

M - I don't know where you find the time to do this stuff, but it's always good food for discussion.  I agree with everything you said and also believe that our youngsters will gain confidence and work better together as the season progresses.

My concerns are:

If we do some of these items, it will be for the first time this year.  Specifically, our defense's performance in the first half  (Alabama likes to come out fast), our consistency (given our youth and digesting a new system, this has to be a challenge), and special teams (I'm at a total loss to understand the field goal situation).  Nevertheless, I'm confident that the present coaching staff is addressing the stuff that counts.

If we can win against the Tide, it will make me much more optimistic about the rest of the season.  I see Alabama as a middle of the pack SEC team this year and don't really think they deserve the AP's #9 rating.  We'll see what happens.

[pigroots]

Even though I am a huge homer I also realize for the hogs to win Bama will have to make some mistakes.Typically young teams make the most mistakes and we are are that team.No turnovers created in the first 2 games against lesser competition makes me doubt that we can count on that this weekend. Alabama - Arkansas is always won on the line of scrimmage and that was supposed to be our strength this year but after sitting in the stands through the WIU rushing attack it's not.I fully expect Bama to hammer the ball at us and wear us down by the 3rd quarter but  better days are ahead as these pups cut their teeth and Petrino gets the recruits to bring us to the top.Thats my best guess...GHG 

[Hogginitall]

Even though I am a huge homer I also realize for the hogs to win Bama will have to make some mistakes.Typically young teams make the most mistakes and we are are that team.No turnovers created in the first 2 games against lesser competition makes me doubt that we can count on that this weekend. Alabama - Arkansas is always won on the line of scrimmage and that was supposed to be our strength this year but after sitting in the stands through the WIU rushing attack it's not.I fully expect Bama to hammer the ball at us and wear us down by the 3rd quarter but  better days are ahead as these pups cut their teeth and Petrino gets the recruits to bring us to the top.Thats my best guess...GHG 

Bama has played a bunch of freshmen so far this year.  We both have young teams.

[razorsharptusk]

Question, and please don't think I'm doubting us this week. I want the Hogs to win just as much as the rest of you.  But last year, we went into bama with guys that are now playing in the NFL.  We lost those guys.  The way I hear it, Bama didn't lose much on the defensive side, nor the offensive side, just picked up some star status rookies.  We had to come from behind then too, but still didn't win, but had alot of talent to perform the come back and get close. Can I ask how some of you figure on us being able to contend with this years bama team, when we got beat last year with more talent than we have this year?  Did the Bama team change that much with new personell.  I've heard the Bama offese only changed about 30% from last year.  It's being talked on the radio shows that Arkansas put in a wholesale change.  Many want to see how we perform.  Many think Petrino will pull out some new stuff.  I'm curious as yall are. But the question of why we should be better this year over last year confuses me.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

It's our turn to win at RRS?  Didn't we win the last time they came up here?

What I meant was "its our turn to win".....it just happens to be at RRS.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

M - I don't know where you find the time to do this stuff, but it's always good food for discussion.  I agree with everything you said and also believe that our youngsters will gain confidence and work better together as the season progresses.

My concerns are:

If we do some of these items, it will be for the first time this year.  Specifically, our defense's performance in the first half  (Alabama likes to come out fast), our consistency (given our youth and digesting a new system, this has to be a challenge), and special teams (I'm at a total loss to understand the field goal situation).  Nevertheless, I'm confident that the present coaching staff is addressing the stuff that counts.

If we can win against the Tide, it will make me much more optimistic about the rest of the season.  I see Alabama as a middle of the pack SEC team this year and don't really think they deserve the AP's #9 rating.  We'll see what happens.

It doesn't take a lot of time to put this stuff together if you know where to look for it.

Fixing our special teams play SHOULD be simple. It is one area that can have a tremendous impact on the outcome of a game if it is either executed well or badly and yet it is the one area that is probably the least complicated. This HAS to be a priority for us.

I think the FG thing with Tejada is possibly just a mental thing for him, but I don't know for certain. Whatever the problem, it also has to be fixed now and I am sure the coaching staff is on it just as they are the special teams.

Its a given that we are a young team overall and we are learning a new system on both sides of the ball. What I have found is that teams like that will have games where they look unbeatable and other games where it looks as if they never played a lick of football. We have had two games where we have looked pretty poor overall. We are due to put it all together and everyone on this team will be up for Alabama. I believe we have the motivational edge in this game over Alabama.

Should we win, I wouldn't expect everyone to get all hyped up and think, "ok, now we are on our way", because I think we will see performance dip again at some point(s) in the season. I still believe that 8 wins in the regular season is achievable and realistic, but it will be a rocky road to 8 wins with a lot of games being much closer than we might like. We have to start playing a full four quarters of football to reach that goal. I think we will see the first installment in that plan this weekend.

[HedgeDweller]

Freddie Burton, Elston Forte (Defensive Captain), Wendel Davis (full strength), Ryan Powers.
3 of these 4 were listed as projected starters in the pre-season.

I will be very interested in seeing what effect the return of those at LB will have on the defense as a whole.
I am hoping it makes a huge difference.

[HoopS]

I will be very interested in seeing what effect the return of those at LB will have on the defense as a whole.
I am hoping it makes a huge difference.

One difference those guys coming back would be in special teams.  Simply put, more usable bodies... whether these guys play ST or not, having them back helps with depth.

I do anticipate that these guys being back will help our LB corps quite a lot, though.  Forte earned a starting spot, plus D Captain.. that's worth something there.  Davis has the most experience.  Burton showed signs of being good last year.

I would like to know the status of Tenarious Wright.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

I want help on the DLINE.  They need to pressure John Sarah Jessica Parker Wilson if we are to be successful.

Perhaps since we will have a more experienced LB corps this week, the D-Line won't have to concentrate so much on keeping the OL off the LB's and they will be able to be more aggressive up front.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

Sorry, but if anything, those stats made me even more concerned about this weekend.  There is a slight disparity in nearly every column that is slanted to Bama, and that is with Bama having played more games against stiffer competition than we've seen yet.  I don't think it is beyond belief that we pull an upset here, but it won't be because of anything I've seen in that stat list.  Furthermore, there are too many intangibles that we are losing to feel secure in simple numbers.  We have to play better on ST's, win the turnover battle, and become a complete team in four days' time, or we will be 2-1.  With that said, there is a part of me that believes we will do it.

Just speaking to the time frame, we have been working on Alabama as a team, since last Wednesday. That is 3 extra days as a minimum to prepare for them than we would normally have. That will work to our benefit. And if you can't see some positives in some of those stat's, then I don't know what you are thinking. We like to bemoan our defense, but their stats are not that bad and they will get better as we get a minimum of 3 starters back on defense this weekend that we didn't have before. Their sacks aren't much greater than ours nor are their tackles for loss. They are for the most part only 40%(2 of 5) effective in FG's outside the 30. JPW isn't averaging over 200 yards a game like he did last year. They are putting most of their hopes on their running game and if we can slow that down, limit big plays and keep them from scoring big time int he first half, we stand a pretty good chance.

And you statement that they have played against stiffer competition? Yeah, a lot of folks would assume that without really checking it out. But in the stats I listed above, the cumulative average of their combined opponents would have their opponents average overall rank at #68, ours would rank #53.

And for that matter, Arkansas is ranked significantly higher statistically in almost every category I listed in the NCAA than Clemson.

A lot of you folks are assuming without actually checking the facts. Alabama is not some great football god to be worshipped and feared. Respected, yes. But they are very capable of getting their arse's kicked just like anybody else and it might as well be us who does the kicking.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

One difference those guys coming back would be in special teams.  Simply put, more usable bodies... whether these guys play ST or not, having them back helps with depth.

I do anticipate that these guys being back will help our LB corps quite a lot, though.  Forte earned a starting spot, plus D Captain.. that's worth something there.  Davis has the most experience.  Burton showed signs of being good last year.

I would like to know the status of Tenarious Wright.

Our LB's will be better this week, no doubt. Good question about Wright.

[JIHawg]

Here's the deal-Bama knows they can play with the big boys.  They will show up.

We, on the other hand, don't have a clue if we can hang with the big boys or not.

We will know a lot more after this game.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

Here's the deal-Bama knows they can play with the big boys.  They will show up.

We, on the other hand, don't have a clue if we can hang with the big boys or not.

We will know a lot more after this game.

What "big boys" have they played with again? Clemson-Imposter, Tulane? W. Kentucky? They were what? 7-6 last year? Odds may be slightly in their favor but I don't get your promoting them as knowing they can play with the big boys and us not knowing, at least as it relates to this season. I'm not sure either of us have proven anything at this point.

[Hogdomer]

Ding, ding, ding... We have a winner.

Clemson AND Tulane are pretty decent teams this year -- no, not Florida or Tennessee, but well above ULM and W Illinois.

ULM was good enough to beat Alabama at home late in the year last year. 

[donewithdale]

The second string played the last few minutes of the 3rd and all of the 4th quarter against WKU. Bama could have padded the score even more in that one. The 5th string RB, Upchurch, coughed up the ball inside the 10, then Alabama drove to the 5 yard line with the 3rd string QB and took the victory formation with almost 2 minutes left. There could have easily been 14 more points scored with 2nd and 3rd string players.

Clemson came in overconfident and got smacked hard enough to knock them completely off their game.

Tulane played waayyy over their heads, but still couldn't score more than field goals.

Based on how Tulane played East Carolina, its appears like they played as they are capable of playing and not over their heads. 

Clemson's weak spot was one that was mentioned the entire offseason - the Oline - but was ignored by the pollsters because of their skill players.  Your win is being overblown.  It was impressive.  But considering Bama has always had talented Dline and LB's, its very understandable that you dominated them up front. 

Still your opponents are much more impressive than ours.  And neither of our lines were able to control the line of scrimmage in our first two games. 

[MuskogeeHogFan]

we have to finish off drives.  When we get the kinks out, our offense will be hard to stop.  A healthy Michael Smith adds a lot to this team.  Now we have to finish drives.  No more devastating holds.  Got to catch it if it is catchable.  Casey has to get rid of it if nothing is there or run, but the sacks need to be cut at least in half. 

Our special teams right now are putrid.  I mean horrible.  Pathetic.  You name it.  We need a reliable placekicker, punter, and kick off man.  Right now, we suck at all three.  The potential is there, but the results are not. 

We have to get some sacks.  We need some turnovers. 

And finally, we need a break or 2. 

We get those things straightened out, and you may see a suddenly confident young team build some momentum.  The potential is there, but again, the results -- not so much right now.

I have a good feeling about this team.

I agree with this. This is a pivotal weekend for this team. We all thought that the Texas game would tell us a lot about the remainder of our season, but with it being rescheduled, the Alabama game, once again(as in years past), seems to be the key to our season.

[HotlantaHog]

Based on how Tulane played East Carolina, its appears like they played as they are capable of playing and not over their heads. 

Clemson's weak spot was one that was mentioned the entire offseason - the Oline - but was ignored by the pollsters because of their skill players.  Your win is being overblown.  It was impressive.  But considering Bama has always had talented Dline and LB's, its very understandable that you dominated them up front. 

Still your opponents are much more impressive than ours.  And neither of our lines were able to control the line of scrimmage in our first two games. 

This is exactly right. Tulane is a decent team and will surprise some this year. Clemson didn't match up well vs Bama, but isn't in the same league with the competition Arkansas has faced so far this year.

[PolishPigPower]

Just speaking to the time frame, we have been working on Alabama as a team, since last Wednesday. That is 3 extra days as a minimum to prepare for them than we would normally have. That will work to our benefit. And if you can't see some positives in some of those stat's, then I don't know what you are thinking. We like to bemoan our defense, but their stats are not that bad and they will get better as we get a minimum of 3 starters back on defense this weekend that we didn't have before. Their sacks aren't much greater than ours nor are their tackles for loss. They are for the most part only 40%(2 of 5) effective in FG's outside the 30. JPW isn't averaging over 200 yards a game like he did last year. They are putting most of their hopes on their running game and if we can slow that down, limit big plays and keep them from scoring big time int he first half, we stand a pretty good chance.

And you statement that they have played against stiffer competition? Yeah, a lot of folks would assume that without really checking it out. But in the stats I listed above, the cumulative average of their combined opponents would have their opponents average overall rank at #68, ours would rank #53.

And for that matter, Arkansas is ranked significantly higher statistically in almost every category I listed in the NCAA than Clemson.

A lot of you folks are assuming without actually checking the facts. Alabama is not some great football god to be worshipped and feared. Respected, yes. But they are very capable of getting their arse's kicked just like anybody else and it might as well be us who does the kicking.

Sure we ought to try and kick them around, and no doubt that they aren't football gods.  However, back to the stats...

We've been Jekyll and Hyde.  Against a good running team, we couldn't stop the run.  So the next game, we sold out to stop the run and we couldn't stop the pass.  When do we get to see a balanced effort?  That's what I'm waiting for, because WIU was one-dimensional and the QB for ULM was more than we had thought.  Coaches said so in post-game comments even.

Alabubba is a well-coached team and they will be prepared for us.  That scare with Tulane should keep their focus on us.  We have to be able to put together the best parts of Games 1 and 2, and eliminate the costly errors.  Like I said earlier, we have to do things we haven't done yet: force TO's, maintain consistently good ST play, and become complete on defense.  If we do that, we're in this.  If we don't, then we start re-preparing for Texas.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

Sure we ought to try and kick them around, and no doubt that they aren't football gods.  However, back to the stats...

We've been Jekyll and Hyde.  Against a good running team, we couldn't stop the run.  So the next game, we sold out to stop the run and we couldn't stop the pass.  When do we get to see a balanced effort?  That's what I'm waiting for, because WIU was one-dimensional and the QB for ULM was more than we had thought.  Coaches said so in post-game comments even.

Alabubba is a well-coached team and they will be prepared for us.  That scare with Tulane should keep their focus on us.  We have to be able to put together the best parts of Games 1 and 2, and eliminate the costly errors.  Like I said earlier, we have to do things we haven't done yet: force TO's, maintain consistently good ST play, and become complete on defense.  If we do that, we're in this.  If we don't, then we start re-preparing for Texas.

I don't disagree, we show all the signs of a 1) young team and 2) a team that is learning new systems. Inconsistency is often a term that is associated with a team like this. With that thought, what you typically find is that a team like this will show up one week and put it all together and look unbeatable and then the next week they might show up with all the signs of inconsistency that they exhibited before. This team is going to get better with time and in fact, except for mental errors, they might be better right now than we even think they are. We have had two games where we looked pretty bad in terms of consistency, I think we are due.

If Arkansas can play four quarters of football the way they have played two quarters in each of their games, we stand a very good chance of taking this right down to the wire with Alabama and nearly everyone else we have left to play. If we only play two quarters of football as we have in our first two games, Alabama will build a nice lead in the first half and coast to a win. In my opinion, we have to come out and play consistent, quality football in the first half or we will lose our opportunity to win this game.

[Rebel64]

Some of you people need to step back from the keyboard and remember we are rebuilding.  Granted we are 2-0 but we are 2 - 4th down plays away from being 0-2 against BAD, BAD teams.  Give it a year or 2 instead of trying to think your way into a BCS game this year. 

[PolishPigPower]

Some of you people need to step back from the keyboard and remember we are rebuilding.  Granted we are 2-0 but we are 2 - 4th down plays away from being 0-2 against BAD, BAD teams.  Give it a year or 2 instead of trying to think your way into a BCS game this year. 

It was just two years ago that a gust of wind at Vandy and good fortune against Bama created the same situation...

[MuskogeeHogFan]

Some of you people need to step back from the keyboard and remember we are rebuilding.  Granted we are 2-0 but we are 2 - 4th down plays away from being 0-2 against BAD, BAD teams.  Give it a year or 2 instead of trying to think your way into a BCS game this year. 

No one said anything about being in a BCS game "Rebel". In fact, if you read the thread I think you would see that most are very realistic about our chances. Soem are overly positive, most are very much underly positive, but there are some that are believing that 8 wins is a real possibility and that sure as heck doesn't get us in a BCS bowl.

[want2be]

This is a HUGE game for Petrino even though he knows he has a free ride for a couple of years. He would like a balanced offence but he knows this year we are going to have to pass to set up the run. Look for his play calling to go to another level.

Also the Hogs normally play better as the underdog......Just normal for players to play harder when they are getting no respect and they are on national tv. Look for our def and off lines to come out strong.

I hope the keys to this game ends up being special teams and turnovers, because the odds are in our favor.