Hurrican Ike and the Texas game [merged]

[Immensehog]

Both teams have an open date on the 27th.

Austin is gridlock on a normal day.  Add a ballgame, evacuees from the coast, and wind and rain..

No way they play this one on Saturday.

[taintlint]

Both teams have an open date on the 27th.

Austin is gridlock on a normal day.  Add a ballgame, evacuees from the coast, and wind and rain..

No way they play this one on Saturday.

Ironically, hundreds of thousands will be flocking to Austin the 26th-28th due to the Austin City Limits Music Festival. There isn't a hotel room for 100 miles.

[Immensehog]

Ironically, hundreds of thousands will be flocking to Austin the 26th-28th due to the Austin City Limits Music Festival. There isn't a hotel room for 100 miles.

We can always move the game to Little Rock!!

[HoopS]

Again, even if the winds don't hit Austin, the campus may well be used for evacuees from whereever. 

Let's hope this thing picks up speed and veers South.....or doesn't hold its form. 

[Clint Alan]

Why cant this game be moved to Dallas? Shreveport?

My Texas friends are telling me there is about a 0% this game is going to be played right now......

One is a teacher in Corpus Christi, and their school is let out for the rest of the week, and mandatory evacuation starts tomorrow......She cannot even get a room in Austin right now.....

[taintlint]

Again, even if the winds don't hit Austin, the campus may well be used for evacuees from whereever. 

Let's hope this thing picks up speed and veers South.....or doesn't hold its form. 

Austin is the primary evacuation point for the City of Galveston and the overflow spot for multiple others. If the coast is evacuated, and the projections say they will be, it wont matter if Saturday is the most beautiful day in the history of Austin.

We are about to know how it feels to be an LSU fan.

[HoopS]

Agreed tl.

[Clint Alan]

Austin is the primary evacuation point for the City of Galveston and the overflow spot for multiple others. If the coast is evacuated, and the projections say they will be, it wont matter if Saturday is the most beautiful day in the history of Austin.

We are about to know how it feels to be an LSU fan.

I think you could have worded that better......the thought of what you just said made my lunch come mid-throat....

How about.......We are about to experience first hand what Troy fans went through last week......

That just has a better ring to it, IMO....

[SRFL]

Come on EastTex, take my bet.  Skeered?

[SRFL]

Good interactive model.

http://www.stormpulse.com/fullscreen/current

Play button on bottom left and zoom are good tools.

[WooPigFlowerMound]

Someone better tell Ike that you don't mess with Texas.

[taintlint]

The game will be canceled within 24 hours.

To me, the only question that remains is: Do Jeff Long and Bobby Petrino want to reschedule in light of how difficult the rest of the schedule is? I say they "have logistical problems" and do not reschedule.

[Clint Alan]

The game will be canceled within 24 hours.

To me, the only question that remains is: Do Jeff Long and Bobby Petrino want to reschedule in light of how difficult the rest of the schedule is? I say they "have logistical problems" and do not reschedule.

I say the game should just be moved to another location this weekend........LSU was looking at playing in Dallas this weekend.....why cant we look to play at Cowboys stadium?

[Pork N Beans]

Don't know the status of the game, but will say if it is played, with a hurricane sitting right on top of  Austin, sucking the stench out of memorial stadium, it would me nasty.  Anyone tried to throw or kick in 70mph winds?   

[Hawgon]

If they are going to move the game, why not just move it to Fayetteville?  Move it to Fayetteville, and play them the next  time in Austin.

Make the call tomorrow. 

[BigSexyHog]

The overreaction caused by all the Katrina hype is amazing.  Last week, on the day that Gustav made landfall in Louisiana, my wife and I went into Wal-Mart for a few items.  One of the things we needed was bread.

Well, we were out of luck.  ALMOST EVERY LOAF OF BREAD IN THE STORE WAS GONE, other than the Sara Lee stuff that their rep was stocking while we were there.

We saw people with entire shopping carts full of bottled water.  There were people everywhere whose carts were so full they were overflowing...or they were pushing one and pulling another.

There were two pallets at the front of the store, one with flashlights and one full of batteries.  I told my wife I expected some moron to come driving in with a forklift and load up all of them.

What do these people think was going to happen?  Tyler is about 275 miles inland from the nearest point on the Texas coast.  Not only that, but THE DAMN HURRICANE HAD ALREADY MADE LANDFALL...IN LOUISIANA...SEVEN HOURS EARLIER.  It was already down to a category one, and was still 350 miles away from us.

Crap, what were they thinking...that a giant tsunami was going to blast out of the Gulf, reach Tyler (about 400 feet above sea level)...and that their bottled water and flashlights were going to save them?

How many freaking hurricanes have hit the Gulf Coast in the last 250 years?  And exactly how many of them have caused catastrophic damage 100 miles or more inland?

Geez, people, unless you live near the coast and BELOW SEA LEVEL...a.k.a. in New Orleans...I don't think you really have to worry about another Katrina-like scenario.

But, since so many people (especially politicians) took so much heat because so many stupid New Orleans residents ignored the warnings that they had been hearing not only for days as Katrina approached, but for decades due to the negative altitude and levee system there, now everyone has to overreact about 10,000 fold every time a hurricane blows up in the Gulf.

Rant over.

Well said ..... Very well said  +1

[BigSexyHog]

I am officially embarrased that you are from East Texas.  It's very apparent you only "care" about yourself, and that's not how it works in the Piney Woods.

Rick Perry is that you? -1

[SRFL]

Rick Perry is that you? -1

Yes.  Yes it is.

[facepalm]

[Clint Alan]

What would be the problem with playing here in Fayetteville? We could return the trip in 2012......

hmmmm..........

[threeNout]

I would think they have to make a decision by either late tomorrow, early Thursday at the latest.

Looks like we have about 12-18 hours left to wish Ike off on another path or to diminish it's strength or it's goodbye Hogs/Horns.

It would be a bummer but there are certainly more important things to consider.

I just wonder which of the 3 alternatives will happen, change of venue, postpone, or cancel.

cancel wouldn't surprise me.

[taintlint]

What would be the problem with playing here in Fayetteville? We could return the trip in 2012......

hmmmm..........

I would imagine the 98,000 people already holding tickets, to include Texas season ticket holders, that would have to fit into 72,000 seats.

Even if they sold 72,000 tickets on a first come, first serve basis, I can't imagine the nightmare this would be. Not too mention hotels, getting RRS ready, volunteers, etc.....

I imagine UT will offer up the 27th as an option but in light of every hotel within 100 miles of Austin being booked that weekend for the Austin City Limits Music Festival and Petrino probably really not wanting Texas back on his plate, the game will not be played at all. But that is just my opinion.

[Porkyswine]

I know there have been a lot of other posts on this subject, and that I should use that thread, but I wanted to give everyone a look at the latest Ike projection by the National Hurricane Center.  I know it is several days out, but they project the eye of Ike (a tropical storm at that point with sustained winds from 39mph-73mph) to be on top of Austin at 2pm Saturday.  Still a good chance this could change, but here is the link.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/204416.shtml?5day?large#contents

[taintlint]

I'm just jumping in so I can get a free ride when the thread is merged with the four page one.

It wouldn't matter if the storms hits at 2 or it's sunny and beautiful. The weather in Austin is not a deciding factor. If the coast is evacuated, the game is canceled. Period. But the 70 mph sustained winds "projected" for the city with gust up to 90mph will definitely be a factor in speeding up the announcement. 

Austin is the primary evacuation spot for Galveston and overflow for many other cities. The UT campus facilities will be used. Hell, the Austin shelters are already putting out cots and the foodbanks are asking for immediate donations.

The weather in Austin makes no difference (but even the threat of 70-90mph wind, tornadoes, and floods will force the AD's hand).

[Porkyswine]

Good point brokeback (your avatar).

[ckhawgu]

Good interactive model.

http://www.stormpulse.com/fullscreen/current

Play button on bottom left and zoom are good tools.

Yep! That's the one I've been checking since yesterday from work...

[wooo]

AYSM?

[SRFL]

One more item for consideration is how would the team plane would take off Saturday evening?  I think the FAA might have something to say about air traffic at Bergstrom and it's not going to be you are clear for takeoff.

[taintlint]

One more item for consideration is how would the team plane would take off Saturday evening?  I think the FAA might have something to say about air traffic at Bergstrom and it's not going to be you are clear for takeoff.

Pigs flying will be about the only thing at this point that puts this game back into consideration.

[opineonswine]

IF they postpone it, and I'd say there's a good chance they will, my guess is it gets rescheduled for 9/27 in Austin.

[Clint Alan]

Well......we will know alot more tomorrow.....In the mean time, Im calling the Hyatt in Austin, and asking about if we have to cancel inside of 72 hours..........

Surely they will understand the circumstances

[hogs5204]

The day after the last hurricane came ashore in south Texas - near brownsville, Hurricane Dolly, had sustained winds of 50 mph as it approached Laredo several hours later.  The problem with this storm could be the heavy rains and tornado warnings which could be a factor in whether the game is played or not.  If there is a coasta evacuation, those will begin Wednesday but mainly take place on Thursday and Friday in advance of the storm with a lot of traffic moving north past Austin towards Dallas.  If they put in contra-flow, it could impact some of the interstates and make travel to the south very difficult.
We need for the storm to speed up and move further south to avoid many of these potential game interruptions.
GO Hogs!

[hogstorm]

Its almost a certainty this game will not be played at all on Saturday.  Ike did a great job of staying together across Cuba and almost certainly will be a major hurricane within two days.  Explosive development is likely (could start by tomorrow morning) and I would be more surprised if it didn't get to Cat 4 (even Cat 5) than if it did.  With it likely being at landfall at least a Cat 3 hurricane its almost impossible to have the game due to the weather itself affecting the game and the fact that the emergency managers and school officials won't want to have a game going on while evacuations were under way.  I read somewhere earlier today that the Texas AD mentioned the Texas/Arkansas bye week as this most likely replacement date.  He also mentioned that the campus/stadium is a evacuation point. 

[earlenehawg]

I got my hotel and benefits through the alumni association, I wonder what the policy will be if they postpone?  I only hope they decide before Thursday.

[opineonswine]

Most hotels have 48 hour cancellation policy so they would need to let us know tomorrow.

[Hawgnoxious]

I'd suspect that they would work with anyone willing to give up their room so that an evacuee could have a place to sleep. 

[taintlint]

Two things come to mind with the 27th.

1) The Austin City Limits Music Festival will have well over 100 thousand people in DT Austin with hotels already booked for the entire 26th-28th. I think the two could co-exist but the logistics for traveling fans, to include Texas fans not living in Austin, are daunting.

2)How many here think Petrino and Long really want to play Texas? Even with Texas out of the picture, the next 3 opponents are ranked no lower than 11th. Arkansas has nothing to gain. Once we kick off against Bama, why digress back to SWC football? It could happen, but I would offer an excuse not to.

[ghog23]

Let's hope its not necessary but the hotel will give refunds and sell rooms to evacuees.

[Clint Alan]

Two things come to mind with the 27th.

1) The Austin City Limits Music Festival will have well over 100 thousand people in DT Austin with hotels already booked for the entire 26th-28th. I think the two could co-exist but the logistics for traveling fans, to include Texas fans not living in Austin, are daunting.

2)How many here think Petrino and Long really want to play Texas? Even with Texas out of the picture, the next 3 opponents are ranked no lower than 11th. Arkansas has nothing to gain. Once we kick off against Bama, why digress back to SWC football? It could happen, but I would offer an excuse not to.

Bottom line is that there has been a contract signed between both schools.......we(ark) have already flaked out on our game here at home for next year.....I dont see us backing out of a game with Texas this year....

There are many more options than having to play on the 27th.....You can play in Dallas, Shreveport, or even Fayetteville.....

Anything is possible at this point......And anything anyone says right now is just pure speculation......The schools will speak on this matter soon enough......It is out of our control for now.....

[ghog23]

The game will not be made up if cancelled, way too many variables that would not match up to make it work.

[Feralhog]

Two things come to mind with the 27th.

1) The Austin City Limits Music Festival will have well over 100 thousand people in DT Austin with hotels already booked for the entire 26th-28th. I think the two could co-exist but the logistics for traveling fans, to include Texas fans not living in Austin, are daunting.

2)How many here think Petrino and Long really want to play Texas? Even with Texas out of the picture, the next 3 opponents are ranked no lower than 11th. Arkansas has nothing to gain. Once we kick off against Bama, why digress back to SWC football? It could happen, but I would offer an excuse not to.

For some reason after reading this, the homos in your avitar seem appropriate.

[COCHISE]

Hopefully those 70 mph winds will be coming from the left and blow some of Tejada's kicks through the friggin' uprights. 

[BigSexyHog]

I don't want it rescheduled... It they are going to play move it like Rubmy mentioned. 

[bphi11ips]

Its almost a certainty this game will not be played at all on Saturday.  Ike did a great job of staying together across Cuba and almost certainly will be a major hurricane within two days.  Explosive development is likely (could start by tomorrow morning) and I would be more surprised if it didn't get to Cat 4 (even Cat 5) than if it did.  With it likely being at landfall at least a Cat 3 hurricane its almost impossible to have the game due to the weather itself affecting the game and the fact that the emergency managers and school officials won't want to have a game going on while evacuations were under way.  I read somewhere earlier today that the Texas AD mentioned the Texas/Arkansas bye week as this most likely replacement date.  He also mentioned that the campus/stadium is a evacuation point. 

I agree that it's not likely this game will be played this weekend.  The political implications of not cancelling a game in the face of a storm like Ike will dictate cancelling the game if nothing else. 

If the game can be rescheduled for 9/27, it may be a good thing in the long run.  We get an extra week to prepare for Bama at home and go into that game 2-0.  Bama is a much more likely win than Texas and much more important in the scheme of things.  I'd rather beat Texas deep down, but this could be a blessing in disguise.  Beat Bama and head into Texas 3-0.  Who knows what could happen? 

Cancelling the game will suck for the folks who will have to change their plans.  I'm pumped for the game and would rather play it this weekend, but maybe there's a silver lining.

[Clint Alan]

Hopefully those 70 mph winds will be coming from the left and blow some of Tejada's kicks through the friggin' uprights. 

It had been well documented that LSU had been looking at all its options this week when they thought Ike was headed at them. They had been given permission to play in Texas Stadium, and I think they were even looking at the Independence Bowl in Shreveport.

There are alot more options than just not playing this weekend.

disclaimer: I posted prior to you changing your post! 

[Tammany Tom]

Now we get to experience it?

Do you realize what Gustav did to Arkansas last week?

Aw come on........Don't even tell me what you experienced up in Arkansas is anything like what we experienced down here in South Louisiana.  The remnants of Gustav by the time it reached Arkansas was basically a very mild tropical depression. A tropical depression is nowhere near a Cat 2 or 3 hurricane.

I've lived through around 10 hurricanes, (including Betsy, Camille, and Katrina) in my lifetime and countless numbers of tropical storms. I can assure you that you have never experienced anything like Betsy or Camille when you were just a young child and had to see what I saw. 

Basically, I was saying that you are now experiencing the possibility of re-scheduling a football game like we have to almost every other year. This is the 3rd week of the season and we (LSU) are dealing with the possibility of having our 3rd game in a row affected by a hurricane. It's a pain, that's all I was alluding to.

btw, here is a great site for those interested in following Ike. It has everything you need like the NHC track, computer models, spaghetti models, radar, etc.

http://www.bearpawsweather.com/tropical/index.html

One last thing: This storm has changed tracks twice a day, every day for a week, so don't get all caught up in the current track. It is very likely to change at least 4 or 5 times by Friday. Here is an archive to the NHC tracks of Ike:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/graphics/al09/loop_5W.shtml

[Feralhog]

Aw come on........Don't even tell me what you experienced up in Arkansas is anything like what we experienced down here in South Louisiana.  The remnants of Gustav by the time it reached Arkansas was basically a very mild tropical depression. A tropical depression is nowhere near a Cat 2 or 3 hurricane.

I've lived through around 10 hurricanes, (including Betsy, Camille, and Katrina) in my lifetime and countless numbers of tropical storms. I can assure you that you have never experienced anything like Betsy or Camille when you were just a young child and had to see what I saw. 

Basically, I was saying that you are now experiencing the possibility of re-scheduling a football game like we have to almost every other year. This is the 3rd week of the season and we (LSU) are dealing with the possibility of having our 3rd game in a row affected by a hurricane. It's a pain, that's all I was alluding to.

btw, here is a great site for those interested in following Ike. It has everything you need like the NHC track, computer models, spaghetti models, radar, etc.

http://www.bearpawsweather.com/tropical/index.html

One last thing: This storm has changed tracks twice a day, every day for a week, so don't get all caught up in the current track. It is very likely to change at least 4 or 5 times by Friday. Here is an archive to the NHC tracks of Ike:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/graphics/al09/loop_5W.shtml

I think the models are showing it further North than it will actually go.  Remember they started saying Southern Florida, then the Florida pan handle, then Houston, now Corpus Christy.  I saw a model showing the flow of the jet stream which would look to move Ike more to the west.  Past history compiles a lot of the data for these models and it's rare for a Hurricane to go south of Tejas but imo, that's where the jet stream will send this storm.  Don't be surprised if this time Tomorrow they guess Brownsville.

[RazorbackRon]

Good interactive model.

http://www.stormpulse.com/fullscreen/current

Play button on bottom left and zoom are good tools.

I agree with SRFL.  StormPulse is one of the best site's out there for info on North Atlantic hurricanes.  It has zoom capabilities and all kinds of different tracking model info.

http://www.stormpulse.com/

[Tammany Tom]

I think the models are showing it further North than it will actually go.  Remember they started saying Southern Florida, then the Florida pan handle, then Houston, now Corpus Christy.  I saw a model showing the flow of the jet stream which would look to move Ike more to the west.  Past history compiles a lot of the data for these models and it's rare for a Hurricane to go south of Tejas but imo, that's where the jet stream will send this storm.  Don't be surprised if this time Tomorrow they guess Brownsville.

Here is a paragraph from a Tropical meterologist that blogs hurricanes that I like to read. I think he makes a good point:

So, here's the bottom line. The Spaghetti model consensus has gone from Houston to Brownsville to south of Corpus Christi to North of Corpus Christi in 36 hours.  The track is not Gospel.    Other scenarios are possible.  Stay tuned....should be interesting.

Here is a very interesting opinion by another tropical meteorologist (a little radical, but interesting anyway):

Hurricane IKE is located just offshore of NW Cuba and is now over very warm waters. IKE will begin to intensify gradually over the next few days with minimal wind shear and warm waters to work with. After look at several different satellite loops it is apparent that the ridge of high pressure to the west of IKE has not weakened at all as it was expected to..This has created a block for IKE and it is now forcing IKE in a northward direction. Remember this was not at all expected. Intially the high was forecasted to break down and move out but since this has not occured yet and it does not look to be moving out anytime soon IKE's track may be alot different. If within the next 24 hours this high does not break down I can be sure that IKE will not make landfall in Texas and would likely be somewhere east of New Orleans. All of the models continue to show a landfall in Texas at this time but they may not have yet gripped onto the high pressure ridge to IKE's west and therefore it make take some time for them to adjust. I will continue to monitor the progress of IKE throughout the night and for the next few days. Residents from Central Florida to the South Texas coast need to pay close attention to there local weather channel and the National Weather Service. Now is not the time to panic...Just be prepared and take any precautions you need to.

[taintlint]

 :razorback:

[bphi11ips]

Here is a paragraph from a Tropical meterologist that blogs hurricanes that I like to read. I think he makes a good point:

So, here’s the bottom line. The Spaghetti model consensus has gone from Houston to Brownsville to south of Corpus Christi to North of Corpus Christi in 36 hours.  The track is not Gospel.    Other scenarios are possible.  Stay tuned….should be interesting.

Here is a very interesting opinion by another tropical meteorologist (a little radical, but interesting anyway):

Hurricane IKE is located just offshore of NW Cuba and is now over very warm waters. IKE will begin to intensify gradually over the next few days with minimal wind shear and warm waters to work with. After look at several different satellite loops it is apparent that the ridge of high pressure to the west of IKE has not weakened at all as it was expected to..This has created a block for IKE and it is now forcing IKE in a northward direction. Remember this was not at all expected. Intially the high was forecasted to break down and move out but since this has not occured yet and it does not look to be moving out anytime soon IKE's track may be alot different. If within the next 24 hours this high does not break down I can be sure that IKE will not make landfall in Texas and would likely be somewhere east of New Orleans. All of the models continue to show a landfall in Texas at this time but they may not have yet gripped onto the high pressure ridge to IKE's west and therefore it make take some time for them to adjust. I will continue to monitor the progress of IKE throughout the night and for the next few days. Residents from Central Florida to the South Texas coast need to pay close attention to there local weather channel and the National Weather Service. Now is not the time to panic...Just be prepared and take any precautions you need to.

Not good news for Hogsanity or the Gulfcoast.  Hope that high breaks down and the damn thing goes to Mexico.