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Author Topic: College Football Playoff Projections and Committee Rankings  (Read 15773 times)

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jbcarol

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College Football Playoff Projections and Committee Rankings
« on: October 26, 2014, 07:24:14 am »

Amy Lawrence @ALawRadio  ·  6h 6 hours ago
How much did the college football playoff projections change with Ole Miss loss? @jppalmCBS has all the answers now

Despite Ole Miss' loss to LSU, Rebels still projected to make playoff

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Thanks in no small part to several brain freezes by the Ole Miss coaching staff, the Rebels suffered their first loss Saturday at LSU.

But like every other one-loss team, Ole Miss isn't done as a playoff team. In fact, I still project the Rebels as one of the four teams in the college football playoff.

Ole Miss still has home games with their two toughest opponents, Auburn and Mississippi State. The Rebels still have to travel to Arkansas, a game they have to take seriously, but if they win out, they will be the SEC West champion...
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jbcarol

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Re: College Football Playoff Projections and Committee Rankings
« Reply #2 on: October 26, 2014, 02:24:12 pm »

In a season that has been defined by chaos, Week 9 finally followed the script with one exception: LSU’s upset of Ole Miss. And not even that was an elimination game. Few answers were revealed, but this week was a reminder that the selection committee has to look deeper than the scoreboard to find separation between the 18 one-loss teams. As the group prepares to announce its first ranking of the season on Tuesday, the biggest question is which team will hold the title of best one-loss team in the country -- at least for now.

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LSU has two losses, but head-to-head results matter to the committee. How far will Ole Miss drop after the Rebels’ disastrous end? Alabama was all Amari Cooper in a win over Tennessee, but the Tide lost to Ole Miss. Ohio State entered the game at Penn State looking like one of the most improved teams in the country since its Week 2 loss to Virginia Tech, but the Buckeyes needed two overtimes to shake the Nittany Lions. Oregon’s win at Cal was further evidence that the Ducks can be the best team in the Pac-12 -- if the committee can forgive that home loss to Arizona.

And Michigan State looked like nobody’s little brother against Michigan.

How closely was the committee watching this week?

Five sitting athletic directors are on the committee: Wisconsin’s Barry Alvarez, Clemson’s Dan Radakovich, Arkansas’ Jeff Long, USC’s Pat Haden and West Virginia’s Oliver Luck. All of them have said they’re spending at least a chunk of their Saturdays watching their own programs. Condoleezza Rice said she attends Stanford’s home games. Mike Gould said he still goes to Air Force games.

For the first half of the season, they have used the weekdays to catch up on game film. Now their Mondays and Tuesdays will be spent voting for their top 25 -- not studying it...
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jbcarol

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Re: College Football Playoff Projections and Committee Rankings
« Reply #3 on: October 26, 2014, 03:52:52 pm »

Chris Low @ClowESPN  ·  6h 6 hours ago
Committee's first ranking comes out Tuesday. My prediction of what top four will be, in no order, are Auburn, FSU, Miss St and Oregon.
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DeltaHog82

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Re: College Football Playoff Projections and Committee Rankings
« Reply #4 on: October 26, 2014, 09:36:51 pm »

Should be interesting this year! Never have I seen teams gain so much by a win and fall so far by a loss as I have seen this year. Hopefully we will be in the talk sooner than later! WPS
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jbcarol

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Re: College Football Playoff Projections and Committee Rankings
« Reply #6 on: October 28, 2014, 01:24:51 pm »

George Schroeder @GeorgeSchroeder  ·  4 hours ago

Hats checked at the door, @CFBPlayoff committee is a good idea - but weekly ranking is not: http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/2014/10/27/analysis-college-foot



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GRAPEVINE, Texas — On a hat rack just outside the Bluebonnet Room, a dozen white ball caps hung Monday afternoon, each emblazoned with the name of a member of the College Football Playoff selection committee. Jeff Long came up with the idea as a visual reminder: Biases must be checked at the door.

"We're leaving those things outside," said Long, Arkansas' athletic director and the committee chairman, "and we're acting within the best interests of college football."

But is what the committee is doing this week — and for the next five weeks? — good for college football?

On Tuesday, after several hours of deliberations over parts of two days, the initial College Football Playoff Top 25 will be unveiled...

Yeah, their ranking will be official. But what does that mean? With the season only two-thirds complete, does it matter at all which teams populate the top of their poll right now?

... The weekly Top 25 is TV programming, plain and simple. And if you doubt that, consider the timing. The old BCS formula was released, beginning in late October, every Sunday night.
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jbcarol

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Re: College Football Playoff Projections and Committee Rankings
« Reply #7 on: October 28, 2014, 07:14:07 pm »

http://www.collegefootballplayoff.com/view-rankings

State tops with Auburn third, Ole Miss fourth, Bama sixth and UGa eleventh. LSu is 19th.

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holeinthewall

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Re: College Football Playoff Projections and Committee Rankings
« Reply #8 on: October 29, 2014, 08:41:26 am »

SEC ends up with one team in the end if Michigan St, FSU and Oregon win out. The SEC teams will all beat each other and have 2 losses.
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jbcarol

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Re: College Football Playoff Projections and Committee Rankings
« Reply #9 on: October 29, 2014, 11:32:54 am »

AL.com sports @aldotcomSports  ·  14 hours ago

ESPN appreciates us suckers treating the first playoff ranking like the O.J. verdict. http://ow.ly/DuIKT

Scarblog:
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As hard as it is to distinguish between teams after they've all played 12 or 13 times, it's even more of a shot in the dark to do it three days before Halloween.

Everyone's body of work is missing an arm and a leg...

It's nice that Louisville squeaked into the first ranking at No. 25, but the only attention Condi Rice and friends need to pay to Bobby Petrino and Mike Dyer will come Thursday night when their Cardinals get to be the good guys against Florida State...

As for the ranking itself, it was our first glimpse into the minds of the 12 committee members, and it was refreshing to see them put a BB in a number of misconceptions. At least for one week.

SEC fans worried that the committee would try to spread the love across the country had to be thrilled to see three teams from the league in the top four in No. 1 Mississippi State, No. 3 Auburn and No. 4 Ole Miss. It was four in the top six with No. 6 Alabama and five in the top 11 with No. 11 Georgia.

Can't wait for Bo Pelini to accuse Tom Osborne of SEC bias...
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jbcarol

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Re: College Football Playoff Projections and Committee Rankings
« Reply #10 on: October 29, 2014, 11:53:50 am »

Nicole Auerbach @NicoleAuerbach  ·  17 hours ago

Don't like idea of weekly rankings because there's so much football to be played. But silver lining: Glimpse at what [commitee] thinks [is] important
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jbcarol

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Re: College Football Playoff Projections and Committee Rankings
« Reply #11 on: October 29, 2014, 12:19:04 pm »

Jeff Long @jefflongUA  ·  15 hours ago

Appreciate fine work @CFBPlayoff Committee did this week! Remember it is early, it is very close and it will change! Eager for Future mtgs!
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Re: College Football Playoff Projections and Committee Rankings
« Reply #12 on: October 30, 2014, 10:21:23 am »

ESPN SEC @ESPN_SEC  ·  1 hour ago

Still plenty of playoff scenarios for the SEC http://es.pn/1tkGZIB

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CHAOS!!

There's a chance the SEC might have four two-loss teams from the West before the SEC championship game.

Here you go: LSU wins out, beating Alabama; Alabama beats Mississippi State and Auburn; Ole Miss beats Auburn and Mississippi State. Now Alabama, LSU, Mississippi State and Ole Miss all have two losses. Or Alabama beats LSU and Mississippi State, but loses to Auburn; Ole Miss beats Auburn and Mississippi State; Auburn beats Georgia and Alabama. Now, Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi State and Ole Miss all have two losses.

A tiebreaker decides the West, and then the winner of the SEC title goes to the playoff. Chances are the loser, which would have more than one loss, won't make it.

How the committee views the SEC in the coming weeks will be interesting.

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jbcarol

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Re: College Football Playoff Projections and Committee Rankings
« Reply #13 on: October 31, 2014, 01:57:20 pm »

CFB Playoff @CFBPlayoff  · 

ICYMI: @jefflongUA sat down with @BonnieBernstein of @CampusInsiders yesterday to discuss first rankings. Watch here: http://campusinsiders.com/videos/one_on_one_with_committee_chairman_jeff_long

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Re: College Football Playoff Projections and Committee Rankings
« Reply #14 on: November 01, 2014, 01:33:05 pm »

AL.com sports @aldotcomSports  ·  57 minutes ago
Auburn, Ole Miss provide SEC, playoff intrigue as teams face off in possible elimination game http://ow.ly/DFFNy

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AUBURN, Alabama -- Tonight might provide the first de facto elimination game in the College Football Playoff era.

Then again, it might not when No. 3 Auburn and No. 4 Ole Miss face off tonight (6 p.m., ESPN) at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium. Either way, the importance is not lost on either as Auburn's high-power offense faces the nation's best defense.
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Re: College Football Playoff Projections and Committee Rankings
« Reply #16 on: November 02, 2014, 09:51:29 am »

ESPN SEC @ESPN_SEC  ·  45 minutes ago
Playoff picture: Week 11 http://es.pn/1tvwO3N

Quote
The SEC conspiracy theories can come to a screeching halt (or at least pause for a brief explanation).

Thanks to Florida -- yes, those Gators -- the odds of the World’s Best Conference placing two teams in the inaugural College Football Playoff now look much dimmer.

Oregon is the clear-cut choice for the No. 4 spot behind Mississippi State, Florida State and Auburn. Just ask Michigan State. And UCLA. And now Stanford...

...The 12-member selection committee set a precedent with its first ranking, rewarding ECU for its schedule in spite of a loss. We’ll find out Tuesday if the committee is consistent in that message.

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jbcarol

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Re: College Football Playoff Projections and Committee Rankings
« Reply #17 on: November 04, 2014, 09:04:35 am »

SPOILER ALERT:

ESPN SEC @ESPN_SEC  ·  2 hours ago

Despite losses, Ole Miss and Georgia remain alive in the playoff Eliminator. Let @Mark_Schlabach tell you why http://es.pn/1yUmItF

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No. 4 Ole Miss suffered more heartache.

No. 11 Georgia laid another egg.

As we enter November, college football's conference races are getting more complicated, and the Rebels, Bulldogs and Utes didn't do themselves any favors by losing this past weekend...

This breaks down the prospects for the College Football Playoff in a style similar to the Locks and Bubble analyses leading to the NCAA Basketball Tournament selection.
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jbcarol

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Re: College Football Playoff Projections and Committee Rankings
« Reply #18 on: November 04, 2014, 10:18:59 am »

AL.com sports @aldotcomSports  ·  10 minutes ago

Oregon has the edge right now for the last playoff spot, but win out, and Alabama's in. No doubt. http://ow.ly/DO1lo
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jbcarol

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Re: College Football Playoff Projections and Committee Rankings
« Reply #19 on: November 04, 2014, 11:36:00 am »

Brett McMurphy @McMurphyESPN  ·  23 hours ago

Title odds: Ore 9/2 Bama 5/1 FSU 6/1 MissSt 7/1 MichSt 8/1 Aub & TCU 10/1 OhioSt 14/1 KSU & ND 16/1 ASU & Neb 28/1 Ga 33/1 via @BovadaLV
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jbcarol

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Re: College Football Playoff Projections and Committee Rankings
« Reply #20 on: November 04, 2014, 07:38:33 pm »

CFB Playoff @CFBPlayoff  ·  41 minutes ago

#CFP25

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jbcarol

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Re: College Football Playoff Projections and Committee Rankings
« Reply #21 on: November 06, 2014, 06:51:23 am »

ESPN SEC @ESPN_SEC  ·  23 hours ago

SEC playoff tracker: Nov. 5 http://es.pn/1tHQSjF

Quote
Mississippi State
Record: 8-0 (5-0)
Rank: No. 1
Next big obstacle: Nov. 15 at Alabama ...
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jbcarol

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Re: College Football Playoff Projections and Committee Rankings
« Reply #22 on: November 07, 2014, 12:05:07 pm »

CFB Playoff @CFBPlayoff  ·  Nov 6

The #CFBPlayoff National Championship field in the making! @ATTStadium

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jbcarol

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Re: College Football Playoff Projections and Committee Rankings
« Reply #23 on: November 07, 2014, 12:16:01 pm »

John Hayes @johnP_hayes  ·  14 hours ago

Yes, would have to be #SECChamp “@SDS: Can a two-loss SEC West team still make the College Football Playoff? http://sds.to/2LossWest
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jbcarol

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Re: College Football Playoff Projections and Committee Rankings
« Reply #24 on: November 08, 2014, 09:40:50 am »

College GameDay @CollegeGameDay  ·  2 hours ago
Week 11 Ranked vs Ranked!

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jbcarol

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Re: College Football Playoff Projections and Committee Rankings
« Reply #25 on: November 08, 2014, 09:01:43 pm »

AL.com sports @aldotcomSports  ·  2 hours ago
College football 1-loss team tracker (updated with afternoon games) | http://ow.ly/E0XVb
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jbcarol

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Re: College Football Playoff Projections and Committee Rankings
« Reply #26 on: November 09, 2014, 05:51:56 am »

Jerry Palm projects based on the teams' remaining schedules:

Florida State
Bama
Oregon
Baylor


Quote
The Horned Frogs were very impressive in beating Kansas State on Saturday, but they still fell out of the projected final four. That's because Baylor eviscerated Oklahoma in Norman. Because of that win, Baylor is now the projected favorite in the Big 12. Both teams figure to be favored in the rest of their games, but a tie for the league title would be broken by the head-to-head result. Baylor handed TCU its only loss. The CFP selection committee may not jump Baylor over TCU this week, but at some point, if both teams keep winning, they will...

Oregon looked like a threat to drop from the rankings as well, but it was Utah who dropped the ball instead. The Ducks pulled away late for a comfortable win and clinched the North Division title and a spot in the Pac-12 championship game.

Alabama remarkably survivied at LSU and the Tide is now done with the road portion of their schedule. The SEC West title will go through Tuscaloosa. Mississippi State and Auburn play there before the season is over and either Alabama will win the division title at home or someone will have beat them there to take it from them.

Auburn is no longer a threat to make the playoff though. With a brutal road schedule this season, the last thing the Tigers could afford was a home loss, but that is what happened on Saturday. Texas A&M beat Auburn at Jordan Hare, giving the Tigers their second loss and effectively ending their chances to make the playoffs.

Auburn also fell out of the CFP host bowl projections, replaced by Baylor.

Playoff chances also died for Notre Dame and Michigan State, both of whom lost [royally].
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jbcarol

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Re: College Football Playoff Projections and Committee Rankings
« Reply #27 on: November 09, 2014, 06:24:30 am »

AL.com sports @aldotcomSports  ·  6 hours ago

College football 1-loss team tracker, updated with Saturday's late results | http://ow.ly/E1btu

Quote
SURVIVORS (Eight)

Alabama (8-1) beat LSU 20-13 in OT.

Arizona State (8-1) beat Notre Dame 55-31.

Baylor (8-1) beat Oklahoma 48-14.

Duke (8-1) beat Syracuse 27-10.

Nebraska (8-1) had a bye.

Ohio State (8-1) beat Michigan State 49-37.

Oregon (8-1) beat Utah 51-27.

TCU (8-1) beat Kansas State 41-20.

DEARLY DEPARTED (4)

Auburn (7-2) lost to Texas A&M 41-38.

Notre Dame (7-2) lost to Arizona State 55-31.

Kansas State (7-2) lost to TCU 41-20.

Michigan State (7-2) lost to Ohio State 49-37
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Re: College Football Playoff Projections and Committee Rankings
« Reply #28 on: November 10, 2014, 06:35:51 pm »

Jerry Palm @jppalmCBS  ·  3 hours ago
Predicting tomorrow's CFP top 25 today... http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/writer/jerry-palm/24795976/predicting-tuesdays-cfp-top-25-bama-into-top-four-tcu-on-the

1. State
4. Bama
8. AUB
9. Ole Miss
16. UGa
18. LSU
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Re: College Football Playoff Projections and Committee Rankings
« Reply #29 on: November 11, 2014, 11:31:21 am »

AL.com sports @aldotcomSports  ·  17 minutes ago

Alabama back as favorite to win the first college football playoff. http://ow.ly/E7UwS

Quote
The Crimson Tide is the co-top pick in Bovada's odds to win the national title. At 4-to-1, Alabama stands next to Oregon...

At VegasInsider.com, the Tide is a 7-to-2 favorite over Oregon (4-to-1) and Ohio State (6-to-1).

Alabama is the first choice at SportsBet.com followed by Oregon and Florida State.
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jbcarol

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Re: College Football Playoff Projections and Committee Rankings
« Reply #30 on: November 11, 2014, 06:44:00 pm »

CFB Playoff @CFBPlayoff  ·  3 minutes ago
1. Mississippi State
2. Oregon
3. Florida State
4. TCU

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Re: College Football Playoff Projections and Committee Rankings
« Reply #31 on: November 11, 2014, 07:31:13 pm »

Jon Solomon @JonSolomonCBS  ·  38 minutes ago
Jeff Long: 1st time Baylor & TCU have been in same group of 6 teams being evaluated at same time. Baylor only has 1 top-25 win.

Long: Head to head comes into play when all things are equal. At this point, TCU's body of work and SOS are not the same as Baylor.

Long: TCU's win over Kansas St (a higher ranked team) vs. Alabama's close win over LSU means "very slight edge" to TCU.
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Re: College Football Playoff Projections and Committee Rankings
« Reply #32 on: November 11, 2014, 07:34:33 pm »

Edward Aschoff @AschoffESPN  ·  24 minutes ago
Can SEC still get two in? Eh. If Bama barely beats Mississippi State in a good game and then both win out MAYBE.
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Re: College Football Playoff Projections and Committee Rankings
« Reply #33 on: November 12, 2014, 11:49:17 am »

ESPN SEC @ESPN_SEC  ·  4 hours ago

SEC playoff tracker: Nov. 12 http://es.pn/1ublRVm

NCAA MBB Tournament Bubble projection format is used for the College Football playoff analyzing State, Bama, Auburn, Ole Miss, and UGa.
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Re: College Football Playoff Projections and Committee Rankings
« Reply #34 on: November 15, 2014, 10:25:51 am »

Jeff Long on SEC Network: Teams 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 are very close.

We are not sending messages ...
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Re: College Football Playoff Projections and Committee Rankings
« Reply #35 on: November 16, 2014, 07:17:08 am »

Jerry Palm: Alabama wins, takes control of race for No. 1 seed

Quote
I have been projecting Florida State as the top seed, but the committee sent a message this week that undefeated doesn't mean much by itself. They moved Oregon ahead of the Seminoles last week, and with the schedules each team has left, there is no reason to think that order will change unless Oregon loses. On top of that, the Seminoles' strength of schedule took a hit this week with losses by the two ranked teams they had beaten previously. Clemson lost at Georgia Tech and Notre Dame was upset at home by Northwestern. It's possible that FSU will be without a win over a ranked opponent this week.

If Oregon is going to be ahead of Florida State at the end of the year, then certainly a 12-1, SEC champion Alabama would be as well. In fact, the Tide now projects to the top seed overall.

Baylor, which was off this week, remains in the No. 4 spot. The Bears probably took some small comfort in the fact that they beat Kansas by six touchdowns more than TCU did.
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Re: College Football Playoff Projections and Committee Rankings
« Reply #36 on: November 16, 2014, 09:02:01 am »

Greg McElroy @GVMcElroy  ·  12 minutes ago
Everyone asking “who is Bama’s statement win?” I chuckle… Did you forget the fact that they beat the #1 team in country yesterday?

The reason why Bama is #1 over Noles… Based on the committee's voting history, “Statement Victories” carry most weight. Who’s is FSU’s?

Miss. St. is in trouble after yesterday. They lose to Bama, then watch Auburn lose to UGA, LSU lose to Ark., and Texas A&M lose to Mizz.

After sleeping on it, here are my Rankings:

1. Alabama
2. Florida State
3. Oregon
4. Baylor

5. TCU
6. Miss. State
7. Ohio State
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Re: College Football Playoff Projections and Committee Rankings
« Reply #37 on: November 17, 2014, 12:05:17 pm »

Greg McElroy @GVMcElroy  ·  Nov 16

One thing we can all agree on… which is rare in the sports’ world… The @CFBPlayoff is the best thing to ever happen to College FB.
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Re: College Football Playoff Projections and Committee Rankings
« Reply #38 on: November 17, 2014, 12:08:29 pm »

ESPN SEC @ESPN_SEC  ·  3 hours ago

Two-team playoff picture still alive in SEC http://es.pn/11jPDLZ

Quote
Clearly, both Alabama and Mississippi State have to win out, giving Alabama the SEC championship. Without that, this scenario is dead. Now, there is the off chance that a Georgia SEC title (if UGA wins the East over Missouri) could get two SEC teams in, but that's a trickier situation and one that requires a lot more help for the league, because Georgia has two losses.

So if on Dec. 7 Alabama is sitting there with yet another SEC championship and Mississippi State is 11-1 with an Egg Bowl win over rival Ole Miss, the SEC could be in good shape. Alabama would be a lock, but Mississippi State would be an interesting team for the selection committee to study...
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Re: College Football Playoff Projections and Committee Rankings
« Reply #39 on: November 18, 2014, 09:55:03 am »

ESPN Take Three: Who deserves 4th playoff spot?

Quote
Is it Mississippi State? Ohio State? Or Big 12 contenders Baylor or TCU?
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Re: College Football Playoff Projections and Committee Rankings
« Reply #40 on: November 18, 2014, 06:47:07 pm »

SEC Network @SECNetwork  ·  33 minutes ago
The #SEC places 2 in the @CFBPlayoff Top 4!



SEC Teams in the #CFP25:
1. @AlabamaFTBL
4. @HailStateFB
8. @OleMissFB
10. @FootballUGA
14. @FootballAU
20. @MizzouFootball

Alabama is the 4th different #SEC team to be ranked in the @CFBPlayoff Top 4 this year.

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Re: College Football Playoff Projections and Committee Rankings
« Reply #41 on: November 18, 2014, 07:01:31 pm »

AL.com sports @aldotcomSports  ·  27 minutes ago
CFP chairman says No. 1 Alabama has the nation's most complete team http://ow.ly/Evgnt

FWIW
AL.com sports @aldotcomSports  ·  5 minutes ago
#FSUTwitter reacts to Alabama jumping Florida State in latest playoff rankings http://ow.ly/EviXz
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Re: College Football Playoff Projections and Committee Rankings
« Reply #42 on: November 19, 2014, 11:03:34 am »

ESPN SEC @ESPN_SEC  ·  3 hours ago

SEC playoff tracker: Nov. 19 http://es.pn/1uIOFVy


Using a format similar to the NCAA Basketball tournament locks and bubble team analysis, this breaks down the prospects for Bama, State, Ole Miss and UGa.
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jbcarol

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Re: College Football Playoff Projections and Committee Rankings
« Reply #44 on: November 22, 2014, 06:12:30 pm »

CBS Postgame Anchor: Jeff Long may have to rank his own school. (joking)
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Re: College Football Playoff Projections and Committee Rankings
« Reply #45 on: November 23, 2014, 08:14:36 am »

ESPN CollegeFootball @ESPNCFB  ·  7 hours ago
Who's In? @CFBPlayoff according to @ESPNDrLou »

#CFBFinal on ESPN2



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jbcarol

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Re: College Football Playoff Projections and Committee Rankings
« Reply #46 on: November 23, 2014, 02:12:31 pm »

http://espn.go.com/blog/sec/post/_/id/94195/playoff-picture-week-14

Locks and bubbles type analysis of the contenders for the college football playoff with emphasis on the current bubble teams: State, TCU, Baylor, Ohio St., and UCLA.

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Re: College Football Playoff Projections and Committee Rankings
« Reply #47 on: November 24, 2014, 12:11:54 pm »

AL.com sports @aldotcomSports  ·  1 hour ago

ACC office says Jameis Winston's shove of official was not worthy of penalty, ejection | http://ow.ly/ENT7U
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Re: College Football Playoff Projections and Committee Rankings
« Reply #48 on: November 25, 2014, 06:32:53 pm »

College GameDay @CollegeGameDay  ·  22 minutes ago
The @CFBPlayoff Top 25 #CFP25
1. Alabama
2. Oregon
3. Florida State
4. Mississippi State

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Re: College Football Playoff Projections and Committee Rankings
« Reply #49 on: November 25, 2014, 06:34:50 pm »

Natalie Pierre @Natalie_Pierre  ·  16 minutes ago
ICYMI, Here is where the @CFBPlayoff committee's top 7 ranks in total offense, total D, scoring offense & scoring D: http://www.al.com/sports/index.ssf/2014/11/stats_show_alabama_is_only_eli.html
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