Inconvenient truth (for some) about the Hogs, Part 2: SEC road wins last 3 yrs

[Kevin McPherson]

Yesterday, I tweeted out the fact the Hogs have the 2nd best SEC record (KY No. 1 of course) over the past 3 seasons, which included SEC regular season and SECT gms. Today's lesson ...

https://twitter.com/ARHoopScoop/status/832647922747531276

https://twitter.com/ARHoopScoop/status/832648504916930560

https://twitter.com/ARHoopScoop/status/832649351910432772

Now, for the crowd that wants to cry that I'm "cherry-picking" data, remember a couple of things ...

1. IF -- and I stress IF because we know how enigmatic this '16-'17 Hogs team is -- but IF the Hogs Dance, and IF Joe Lunardi's projection holds up that only KY, FL, SCar, and Hogs make it to tourney (we'll see), that would mean in the last 3 seasons, only KY (3 out of 3) has gone to the NCAAT more, and Hogs (2 out of 3) will have gone more than anybody else with 7 other SEC teams tied at 1 NCAAT appearance each in that span.

2. For those saying the Hogs' overall SEC record and road SEC record are skewed because they play a favorable/softer slate of SEC tms, then refer back to No. 1 -- IF the Hogs Dance this year, U can't have it both ways ... meaning, if Hogs R racking up wins against soft schedule (SEC or otherwise), then they have to do EXTRA work to check other boxes to overcome the RPI/SOS shortcomings that go along w/playing a more favorable/softer league sked.

At the end of the day, IF they make the NCAAT this year, the Razorbacks likely have MORE MEANINGFUL MEASURABLES to suggest they have been the 2nd-best SEC program over the last 3 years than any other SEC program. Wouldn't that also suggest the program is trending in the right direction? Not to mention the recruiting classes coming in.

The big IF hanging out there is making the NCAAT this year, and the Hogs probably need 4 more wins w/only 6 more games guaranteed on the sked (5 more regular season and 1 SECT gm) to secure an at-large bid ... miss the Dance this year, and even though the program is trending up relative to other SEC teams outside of KY, the 1 in 6 factor may trump everything else. I understand that and fans have every right to expect more and call for changes.

However, fans should also keep in mind that CMA has done a solid job saving a once-proud program from a dumpster fire, and IF they Dance, it's really hard to argue that the program is NOT running 2nd behind KY over the past 3 seasons with better days ahead when you consider who they have coming in.

[Cambridge Hog]

Most of us are waiting for the IF:  the NCAA tourney. I'll get back to you after 1) selection Sunday and/or 2) after our tournament loss

[Pork Twain]

You are not cherry picking anything but sadly road wins are not the only ones that count.

[phadedhawg]

Do we get to hang a banner in Bud Walton for this accomplishment?  Will it be the final home game this year or maybe during Midnight Madness next year?

[Kevin McPherson]

Do we get to hang a banner in Bud Walton for this accomplishment?  Will it be the final home game this year or maybe during Midnight Madness next year?

Lotta "message board" banners being hung daily that the state of the program is a disaster, and that the HC can't coach. Might as well hang some banners with data and facts that suggest otherwise. Just a thought.

[revolution]

I can accept your reasoning.  I've called for MA to be fired after two losses this season (Miss. St and Mizzou).  But that has been because I didn't think he would get this team to the tournament, and that is my expectation and standard this year.

I like your take, and I still feel if he gets this team to the NCAA, he should be allowed to stay.  That's progress that this team is well capable to make. 

However, if this team falls short for any reason, I feel that's on Mike's coaching and leadership, and I would feel that he had not accomplished enough in the 6 years of his tenure to warrant continued employment.  If he can't get this team with Hannahs and Kingsley to the NCAA, why would I think he's going to do it next year with freshmen replacing those two key players on the roster?  Even Manny has turned out to be a solid asset as a role player - who is going to do that next year?

I want Mike to succeed.  I want the Razorbacks to win.  I'm hopeful a little because of the South Carolina win.  However, I think the odds and history suggest that this team will stumble and fall short.

I hope I'm wrong.  GO HOGS!

[Atlhogfan1]

Selling hard still.  These LSU and SC wins must have been benchmark, program changing wins.  Didn't get much of this from you after Vanderbilt or Mizzou or Ok St.


1 doesn't disprove 2.  The SEC schedule is still soft.  We don't choose it.  But we do play it and ours has been softer than most.  Weakest so far this season in the conference.  We haven't had to do more in terms of quality.  It has been quantity.  '14-15 team did a great job avoiding the bad losses.  Didn't achieve much in terms of great wins.  But quantity carried them.  This season has been a mix of road disasters, road wins, home disasters and finally the SC win which for now looks good.  A win over a ranked team which 14-15 couldn't do.  Mostly qty again.  Better class of cupcakes in the OOC and wins against the bottom part of the SEC with exception of SC. 


2nd best program in the SEC and still irrelevant at this point.  Doesn't say much for the SEC.

[Kevin McPherson]

I can accept your reasoning.  I've called for MA to be fired after two losses this season (Miss. St and Mizzou).  But that has been because I didn't think he would get this team to the tournament, and that is my expectation and standard this year.

I like your take, and I still feel if he gets this team to the NCAA, he should be allowed to stay.  That's progress that this team is well capable to make. 

However, if this team falls short for any reason, I feel that's on Mike's coaching and leadership, and I would feel that he had not accomplished enough in the 6 years of his tenure to warrant continued employment.  If he can't get this team with Hannahs and Kingsley to the NCAA, why would I think he's going to do it next year with freshmen replacing those two key players on the roster?  Even Manny has turned out to be a solid asset as a role player - who is going to do that next year?

I want Mike to succeed.  I want the Razorbacks to win.  I'm hopeful a little because of the South Carolina win.  However, I think the odds and history suggest that this team will stumble and fall short.

I hope I'm wrong.  GO HOGS!

Fair and reasonable take. Great points.

[Pork Twain]

I can accept your reasoning.  I've called for MA to be fired after two losses this season (Miss. St and Mizzou).  But that has been because I didn't think he would get this team to the tournament, and that is my expectation and standard this year.

I like your take, and I still feel if he gets this team to the NCAA, he should be allowed to stay.  That's progress that this team is well capable to make. 

However, if this team falls short for any reason, I feel that's on Mike's coaching and leadership, and I would feel that he had not accomplished enough in the 6 years of his tenure to warrant continued employment.  If he can't get this team with Hannahs and Kingsley to the NCAA, why would I think he's going to do it next year with freshmen replacing those two key players on the roster?  Even Manny has turned out to be a solid asset as a role player - who is going to do that next year?

I want Mike to succeed.  I want the Razorbacks to win.  I'm hopeful a little because of the South Carolina win.  However, I think the odds and history suggest that this team will stumble and fall short.

I hope I'm wrong.  GO HOGS!

I agree and hope you are wrong and that we make it in.

[raz1965]

Hogday your points are very valid, and  reasonable and educated people such as Jeff Long will be able to understand them, which is really all that matters to this point in Mikes term as coach. The program is moving forward and with the recruits on the way much progress will come.

[Kevin McPherson]

Selling hard still.  These LSU and SC wins must have been benchmark, program changing wins.  Didn't get much of this from you after Vanderbilt or Mizzou or Ok St.


1 doesn't disprove 2.  The SEC schedule is still soft.  We don't choose it.  But we do play it and ours has been softer than most.  Weakest so far this season in the conference.  We haven't had to do more in terms of quality.  It has been quantity.  '14-15 team did a great job avoiding the bad losses.  Didn't achieve much in terms of great wins.  But quantity carried them.  This season has been a mix of road disasters, road wins, home disasters and finally the SC win which for now looks good.  A win over a ranked team which 14-15 couldn't do.  Mostly qty again.  Better class of cupcakes in the OOC and wins against the bottom part of the SEC with exception of SC. 


2nd best program in the SEC and still irrelevant at this point.  Doesn't say much for the SEC.

Haha. Hogs are on the cusp of showing the direction is a good one ... they're also on the cusp of 1 in 6. I've acknowledged that over and over.

And "quantity" (win totals) doesn't get you into the Dance, we see it every year. Gotta win on the road, neutral, and pick up favorable W-L ratios gainst RPI Top 50 and 100 ... thems the rules, been that way for awhile.

I'm not saying 2nd-best in SEC ALONE means Hogs / fans are where they want to be or should be, because this program has all the resources to be nationally relevant. '14-'15 team finished Top 20 nationally, earned a 5-seed, won a game at the Dance, won 27 overall, finished 2nd SEC, finished 2nd SECT, and had the SEC POY / 2nd-team AA ... last year was a "speed bump" due to the unforseen personnel fallout ... but if Hogs get back this year, it shows that the '14-'15 season was not an outlier, but last season was.

I've seen the recruits coming in (most of them I've seen play in person 10 or more times) ... Hogs have not had this MUCH collective talent, length, athleticism, high Bball IQ since Nolan's glory days.

[hawgfan4life]

Selling hard still.  These LSU and SC wins must have been benchmark, program changing wins.  Didn't get much of this from you after Vanderbilt or Mizzou or Ok St.


1 doesn't disprove 2.  The SEC schedule is still soft.  We don't choose it.  But we do play it and ours has been softer than most.  Weakest so far this season in the conference.  We haven't had to do more in terms of quality.  It has been quantity.  '14-15 team did a great job avoiding the bad losses.  Didn't achieve much in terms of great wins.  But quantity carried them.  This season has been a mix of road disasters, road wins, home disasters and finally the SC win which for now looks good.  A win over a ranked team which 14-15 couldn't do.  Mostly qty again.  Better class of cupcakes in the OOC and wins against the bottom part of the SEC with exception of SC. 


2nd best program in the SEC and still irrelevant at this point.  Doesn't say much for the SEC.

Irrelevant is an opinion just like the opinion of those wanting the coach fired for being a bad coach.  The data proves otherwise regarding the state of the program which falls under the leadership of the HC.  What data do you have to prove the SEC is irrelevant?  It may not be the top conference or even in the top 3 basketball conferences, but the SEC is still relevant.  Maybe the entire conference isn't relevant, but the top 5 teams are relevant to NCAA and NIT bids, standings, etc.  That can be said about most conferences.  If AR can remain in the top 5 teams of the SEC, they are relevant whether you are of the opinion they are or not.

[Atlhogfan1]

Haha. Hogs are on the cusp of showing the direction is a good one ... they're also on the cusp of 1 in 6. I've acknowledged that over and over.

And "quantity" (win totals) doesn't get you into the Dance, we see it every year. Gotta win on the road, neutral, and pick up favorable W-L ratios gainst RPI Top 50 and 100 ... thems the rules, been that way for awhile.

I'm not saying 2nd-best in SEC ALONE means Hogs / fans are where they want to be or should be, because this program has all the resources to be nationally relevant. '14-'15 team finished Top 20 nationally, earned a 5-seed, won a game at the Dance, won 27 overall, and had the SEC POY / 2nd-team AA ... last year was a "speed bump" due to the unforseen personnel fallout ... but if Hogs get back this year, it shows that the '14-'15 season was not an outlier, but last season was.

I've seen the recruits coming in (most of them I've seen play in person 10 or more times) ... Hogs have not had this MUCH collective talent, length, athleticism, high Bball IQ since Nolan's glory days.

Let the season play out and then we can have a big picture discussion.  My issue with Anderson was never if he would elevate the program from where he got it.  It is how low his ceiling is.  And when he hits, because of who he is, this will drag on.

Qty would have gotten the Hogs in this season.  We played the right low to mid majors in terms of RPI.  Manipulated the numbers well enough to where even with losing to the two "best" teams in the non conference schedule by 14 and 28 had a solid RPI and SOS.  Going into the last half of the SEC, could have beaten Bama, Mizzou, LSU, A&M, Vandy OM and UGa and made the NCAAT.  Not one of those will be close to an NCAAT team.  Some bottom dwellers.  Qty would have gotten the Hogs in. 

Then why do you keep bringing up this 2nd best thing?  Propaganda?  The 27 win team again.  "27 wins!"  As far as the national impact, it didn't register.  Nobody outside of our little fan base cared. 

Unforeseen fallout?  bull.  Now you are sugarcoating this.  Qualls was a [CENSORED] head case who they knew was looking to leave asap.  Portis was a 1st R lock.  What does Mike do? Signs a damn academic risk.  I know he can't help himself.  It is what Nolan taught him.  And another player who bailed on his program quickly even though this another one of his personal recruits.  "Well he couldn't have foreseen the counterfeiting"  Not specifically.  He knew who he had in Williams and Beard epsecially  Williams.  But like with Qualls, kept him as long as he could.  Law enforcement got involved this time so Williams had to go. 

"Hogs have not had this MUCH collective talent, length, athleticism, high Bball IQ since Nolan's glory days."  - Till next season starts and it will be they are young and can't replace what was lost quickly.  We'll tread water again with promises of what 2018-19 will bring.  You are putting a lot of expectations and promises on these classes.

[Atlhogfan1]

Irrelevant is an opinion just like the opinion of those wanting the coach fired for being a bad coach.  The data proves otherwise regarding the state of the program which falls under the leadership of the HC.  What data do you have to prove the SEC is irrelevant?  It may not be the top conference or even in the top 3 basketball conferences, but the SEC is still relevant.  Maybe the entire conference isn't relevant, but the top 5 teams are relevant to NCAA and NIT bids, standings, etc.  That can be said about most conferences.  If AR can remain in the top 5 teams of the SEC, they are relevant whether you are of the opinion they are or not.

It does? 

UK is relevant.  UF to an extent. 

Relevant to the SEC sure.  Which in college basketball isn't saying much. 

"I wonder why ESPN is so bias to not even show our highlights or talk about us"  Frank, are you people seriously this big of isolationist homers?   

We may get there.  Recruiting picking up may get us there in the not so distant future.  We aren't yet.   

[The_Iceman]

For all of Mike's road success, you have to consider his home success has also regressed.

[navyhog24]

Hard truths

1. Lost to MSU
2. Lost to Mizzou
3. Lost to Vandy
4. 1 NCAAT appearance in 6 years

[Pork Twain]

Irrelevant is an opinion just like the opinion of those wanting the coach fired for being a bad coach.  The data proves otherwise regarding the state of the program which falls under the leadership of the HC.  What data do you have to prove the SEC is irrelevant?  It may not be the top conference or even in the top 3 basketball conferences, but the SEC is still relevant.  Maybe the entire conference isn't relevant, but the top 5 teams are relevant to NCAA and NIT bids, standings, etc.  That can be said about most conferences.  If AR can remain in the top 5 teams of the SEC, they are relevant whether you are of the opinion they are or not.

The SEC is to a small extent, Arkansas is not.  Relevant conferences do not get so few NCAA invites.  Over the last 8 years, we have averaged 3.5 invites and look to be about there in year 9.  If you cannot win in a conference this weak, where can you win?

[Kevin McPherson]

Let the season play out and then we can have a big picture discussion.  My issue with Anderson was never if he would elevate the program from where he got it.  It is how low his ceiling is.  And when he hits, because of who he is, this will drag on.

Qty would have gotten the Hogs in this season.  We played the right low to mid majors in terms of RPI.  Manipulated the numbers well enough to where even with losing to the two "best" teams in the non conference schedule by 14 and 28 had a solid RPI and SOS.  Going into the last half of the SEC, could have beaten Bama, Mizzou, LSU, A&M, Vandy OM and UGa and made the NCAAT.  Not one of those will be close to an NCAAT team.  Some bottom dwellers.  Qty would have gotten the Hogs in. 

Then why do you keep bringing up this 2nd best thing?  Propaganda?  The 27 win team again.  "27 wins!"  As far as the national impact, it didn't register.  Nobody outside of our little fan base cared. 

Unforeseen fallout?  bull.  Now you are sugarcoating this.  Qualls was a [CENSORED] head case who they knew was looking to leave asap.  Portis was a 1st R lock.  What does Mike do? Signs a damn academic risk.  I know he can't help himself.  It is what Nolan taught him.  And another player who bailed on his program quickly even though this another one of his personal recruits.  "Well he couldn't have foreseen the counterfeiting"  Not specifically.  He knew who he had in Williams and Beard epsecially  Williams.  But like with Qualls, kept him as long as he could.  Law enforcement got involved this time so Williams had to go. 

"Hogs have not had this MUCH collective talent, length, athleticism, high Bball IQ since Nolan's glory days."  - Till next season starts and it will be they are young and can't replace what was lost quickly.  We'll tread water again with promises of what 2018-19 will bring.  You are putting a lot of expectations and promises on these classes.

Gonna respond in order of each of your paragraphs ...

1. Plenty of fans (you included) didn't seem willing to wait for the end of the season before calling for heads to roll, or at minimum driving home an opinion that HC was weak. Interesting that today you'd like to wait till the end of the season before having the "big picture discussion". But I agree that the staff could be as much on the "bubble" as the current Hogs team is in '16-'17 w/6 gms to prove it or lose it. We shall see.

2. Quantity ... In a nutshell, going a theoretical 3-0 vs. MSSt (hm), Mizzou (rd), & LSU (rd) would not have been more valuable to NCAAT resume than going actual 2-1 vs. Mizzou (L on road), LSU (W on road), and SCar (W on road) ... the RPI differences are likely equitable, but the road win against a quality opponent might make the latter better even though the quantity of wins is fewer. Sure, would have been ideal to win them all, but it doesn't work like that for ANYBODY in college basketball.

3. I bring up 2nd-best in SEC because Cal has an NBADL team going, so in the immortal words of Ricky Bobby: "Nothin' wrong with Silver." It's not enough, but it's much better than how you and other fans paint the program. And you singled out the 27-win part of my post as though I'm saying that alone means something. Combine it with finishing as a Top 20 team for the 1st time this century, and having the NCAAT seeding to back it up, winning in the Dance, and SEC POY and AA ... combined, it means the Hogs were relevant in the national picture. Not Final Four relevant, but a contender for Sweet 16. Let's face it, so much of advancing in NCAAT is about matchups, and the Hogs got the best, most-talented 4-seed draw in the tourney in UNC. How many teams, other than Final Four, do most fans across the nation remember by the following season? You act like the Hogs are in some vacuum of irrelevance even in a season like they had in '14-'15. No signatures wins against ranked teams, I grant you that, but they were a Top 20 team nationally, which by definition means they had national relevance.

4. Yes, unforseen fallout. Madden and Alandise were seniors, and BP was likely to be moving on. First-round lock? No, after the first handful of games of his sophomore season, he was projected as a 2nd-rounder. His decision teetered and wasn't finally made until effectively the deadline for declaring. Same with Qualls, except he was no better than a 2nd-round projection (but trending 1st-round had he stayed another year).

But when I say unforeseen, I'm talking mostly about the losses of Babb and Jacorey, and the 9-game suspension of Beard that also cost him a semester of practice time. Throw in the August realization that Kapita could not get his eligibility (I fully blamed CMA for taking that risk at the time, but now that TK is playing college ball at NCSt, not as much). Point is, that's 6 players who left, 1 who was suspended for a semester, and 1 who was signed but never made it to campus. That's a ton of fallout -- combo of 8 players -- when as the page turned to April, only Madden and Alandise were certain to be leaving and both BP and MQ telling coaches they'd be back.

5. No doubt Hogs are going to miss Mo, Manny, and Dusty (that trio sounds like a Saturday cartoon for kids, doesn't it?). But Macon, Barford, and Beard will be a solid trio of seniors, I think CJ Jones will step in and produce, and I think the quartet of Thompson, Thomas,  Cook, and Bailey will be dependable role players. Gafford, Garland, and Hall will have their ups and downs as freshmen, true, but all 3 have height, length, athleticism, high BBall IQs, and are going to bring a level of talent to the floor COLLECTIVELY that the departing 3 just don't have.

As much as I like Manny (defense) and Dusty (offense), they are one-dimensional, not to mention height, length, and athletically challenged ... and Moses is not the SEC POY. You can't immediately replace their experience and value with freshmen, but that's where guys like Macon, Barford, Beard, and others step in.

[ErieHog]

Hard truths

1. Lost to MSU
2. Lost to Mizzou
3. Lost to Vandy
4. 1 NCAAT appearance in 6 years

One bad loss in that bunch-- and only one--   and the last point is contingent on failing this year, which is not a given.

[Sivad]

The program is moving forward

Sadly, it hasn't moved forward one bit.

[Pork Twain]

One bad loss in that bunch-- and only one--   and the last point is contingent on failing this year, which is not a given.

Surely you jest.  Mizzou and Vandy were both bad losses but neither of those were as bad as Ok St.

[ErieHog]

Surely you jest.  Mizzou and Vandy were both bad losses but neither of those were as bad as Ok St.

Vandy is a Top 60 RPI team.   They don't have a sparkling record, but they are well regarded as a team.

And for all those generally despairing about the state of the SEC, they'd do well to look back at the Committee's sneak peak into the Top 16 seeds, where Florida was held up as a #3 seed, largely on the vastly undersold strength of the SEC

[Pork Twain]

Vandy is a Top 60 RPI team.   They don't have a sparkling record, but they are well regarded as a team.

And for all those generally despairing about the state of the SEC, they'd do well to look back at the Committee's sneak peak into the Top 16 seeds, where Florida was held up as a #3 seed, largely on the vastly undersold strength of the SEC

They beat us by double digits in our house...

[ErieHog]

They beat us by double digits in our house...

Its college basketball.  That happens to most teams.       The sky is most certainly not falling, nor is our program in anything resembling bad shape.       It has shortcomings that keep it from being a national contender-- but so do 340+ other programs, every year.

[Dominicanhog]

Selling hard still.  These LSU and SC wins must have been benchmark, program changing wins.  Didn't get much of this from you after Vanderbilt or Mizzou or Ok St.


1 doesn't disprove 2.  The SEC schedule is still soft.  We don't choose it.  But we do play it and ours has been softer than most.  Weakest so far this season in the conference.  We haven't had to do more in terms of quality.  It has been quantity.  '14-15 team did a great job avoiding the bad losses.  Didn't achieve much in terms of great wins.  But quantity carried them.  This season has been a mix of road disasters, road wins, home disasters and finally the SC win which for now looks good.  A win over a ranked team which 14-15 couldn't do.  Mostly qty again.  Better class of cupcakes in the OOC and wins against the bottom part of the SEC with exception of SC. 


2nd best program in the SEC and still irrelevant at this point.  Doesn't say much for the SEC.

look who's spewing negative drivel.. knew you couldn't wait to get on this.... it's the conference we play in, it's the schedule we play.. we win.. get over it, or stay miserable, I enjoy your whinney comments...

[Hawg Red]

Quality back-and-forth by Atlhogfan1 and HOGdayafternoon, two of my favorite posters. Each backing their points up well with reason, logic and facts.

[Atlhogfan1]

Gonna respond in order of each of your paragraphs ...

1. Plenty of fans (you included) didn't seem willing to wait for the end of the season before calling for heads to roll, or at minimum driving home an opinion that HC was weak. Interesting that today you'd like to wait till the end of the season before having the "big picture discussion". But I agree that the staff could be as much on the "bubble" as the current Hogs team is in '16-'17 w/6 gms to prove it or lose it. We shall see.

2. Quantity ... In a nutshell, going a theoretical 3-0 vs. MSSt (hm), Mizzou (rd), & LSU (rd) would not have been more valuable to NCAAT resume than going actual 2-1 vs. Mizzou (L on road), LSU (W on road), and SCar (W on road) ... the RPI differences are likely equitable, but the road win against a quality opponent might make the latter better even though the quantity of wins is fewer. Sure, would have been ideal to win them all, but it doesn't work like that for ANYBODY in college basketball.

3. I bring up 2nd-best in SEC because Cal has an NBADL team going, so in the immortal words of Ricky Bobby: "Nothin' wrong with Silver." It's not enough, but it's much better than how you and other fans paint the program. And you singled out the 27-win part of my post as though I'm saying that alone means something. Combine it with finishing as a Top 20 team for the 1st time this century, and having the NCAAT seeding to back it up, winning in the Dance, and SEC POY and AA ... combined, it means the Hogs were relevant in the national picture. Not Final Four relevant, but a contender for Sweet 16. Let's face it, so much of advancing in NCAAT is about matchups, and the Hogs got the best, most-talented 4-seed draw in the tourney in UNC. How many teams, other than Final Four, do most fans across the nation remember by the following season? You act like the Hogs are in some vacuum of irrelevance even in a season like they had in '14-'15. No signatures wins against ranked teams, I grant you that, but they were a Top 20 team nationally, which by definition means they had national relevance.

4. Yes, unforseen fallout. Madden and Alandise were seniors, and BP was likely to be moving on. First-round lock? No, after the first handful of games of his sophomore season, he was projected as a 2nd-rounder. His decision teetered and wasn't finally made until effectively the deadline for declaring. Same with Qualls, except he was no better than a 2nd-round projection (but trending 1st-round had he stayed another year).

But when I say unforeseen, I'm talking mostly about the losses of Babb and Jacorey, and the 9-game suspension of Beard that also cost him a semester of practice time. Throw in the August realization that Kapita could not get his eligibility (I fully blamed CMA for taking that risk at the time, but now that TK is playing college ball at NCSt, not as much). Point is, that's 6 players who left, 1 who was suspended for a semester, and 1 who was signed but never made it to campus. That's a ton of fallout -- combo of 8 players -- when as the page turned to April, only Madden and Alandise were certain to be leaving and both BP and MQ telling coaches they'd be back.

5. No doubt Hogs are going to miss Mo, Manny, and Dusty (that trio sounds like a Saturday cartoon for kids, doesn't it?). But Macon, Barford, and Beard will be a solid trio of seniors, I think CJ Jones will step in and produce, and I think the quartet of Thompson, Thomas,  Cook, and Bailey will be dependable role players. Gafford, Garland, and Hall will have their ups and downs as freshmen, true, but all 3 have height, length, athleticism, high BBall IQs, and are going to bring a level of talent to the floor COLLECTIVELY that the departing 3 just don't have.

As much as I like Manny (defense) and Dusty (offense), they are one-dimensional, not to mention height, length, and athletically challenged ... and Moses is not the SEC POY. You can't immediately replace their experience and value with freshmen, but that's where guys like Macon, Barford, Beard, and others step in.

1.   "IF they Dance, it's really hard to argue that the program is NOT running 2nd behind KY over the past 3 seasons with better days ahead when you consider who they have coming in."  - My waiting till after the season was in response to your comment.  I'm good to talk about it now.  My opinion hasn't changed because of the last 3 halves of basketball nor this season for that matter.  I don't take a game to game, season to season myopic view.

2.  Didn't say anything about winning them all.  Left off the list AU, Florida and SC.  Because had we beaten the others listed, maybe not even all, we still would be in position to make the NCAAT this season. 

3.  14-15 was the quietest 27 win team from a major conference as you will find.  Beating UGa and OM on the road were the highlights along with that one possession win over Winthrop.

4.  Still ignoring who Qualls and Williams were I see.  Mike hasn't had the Pelphrey problems.  But like with many of the claims made before he was hired, the notion he wouldn't hasn't shown true as he has had his discipline issues.  The only thing you hold Mike responsible for, and not as much now, is the Kapita risk. 

Hard truths

1. Lost to MSU
2. Lost to Mizzou
3. Lost to Vandy
4. 1 NCAAT appearance in 6 years

Looks like it will be 2 in 6 navy. 

[Atlhogfan1]

look who's spewing negative drivel.. knew you couldn't wait to get on this.... it's the conference we play in, it's the schedule we play.. we win.. get over it, or stay miserable, I enjoy your whinney comments...

It's a rebuttal.  We know the reality is somewhere in the middle.  I just think it is closer my way.

[navyhog24]

1.   "IF they Dance, it's really hard to argue that the program is NOT running 2nd behind KY over the past 3 seasons with better days ahead when you consider who they have coming in."  - My waiting till after the season was in response to your comment.  I'm good to talk about it now.  My opinion hasn't changed because of the last 3 halves of basketball nor this season for that matter.  I don't take a game to game, season to season myopic view.

2.  Didn't say anything about winning them all.  Left off the list AU, Florida and SC.  Because had we beaten the others listed, maybe not even all, we still would be in position to make the NCAAT this season. 

3.  14-15 was the quietest 27 win team from a major conference as you will find.  Beating UGa and OM on the road were the highlights along with that one possession win over Winthrop.

4.  Still ignoring who Qualls and Williams were I see.  Mike hasn't had the Pelphrey problems.  But like with many of the claims made before he was hired, the notion he wouldn't hasn't shown true as he has had his discipline issues.  The only thing you hold Mike responsible for, and not as much now, is the Kapita risk. 

Looks like it will be 2 in 6 navy. 

Great. He has a lower rate than Stan Heath. 2/5 for Heath and 2/6 for Anderson.

[Sapperhog]

I can accept your reasoning.  I've called for MA to be fired after two losses this season (Miss. St and Mizzou).  But that has been because I didn't think he would get this team to the tournament, and that is my expectation and standard this year.

I like your take, and I still feel if he gets this team to the NCAA, he should be allowed to stay.  That's progress that this team is well capable to make. 

However, if this team falls short for any reason, I feel that's on Mike's coaching and leadership, and I would feel that he had not accomplished enough in the 6 years of his tenure to warrant continued employment.  If he can't get this team with Hannahs and Kingsley to the NCAA, why would I think he's going to do it next year with freshmen replacing those two key players on the roster?  Even Manny has turned out to be a solid asset as a role player - who is going to do that next year?

I want Mike to succeed.  I want the Razorbacks to win.  I'm hopeful a little because of the South Carolina win.  However, I think the odds and history suggest that this team will stumble and fall short.

I hope I'm wrong.  GO HOGS!

Very fair assessment. Completely agree.

[sadhogfan]

For all of Mike's road success, you have to consider his home success has also regressed.

Yes, this is accurate. Dating to the beginning of MA's tenure here, the accepted line was that we were almost unbeatable at home but terrible on the road. We have improved by leaps and bounds on the road, but what's up with being 3-3 at home in the SEC (with two of the losses against bad teams)?

For MA to reach the levels of success we all want, we need him to figure out both sides of the equation. Winning 70% of your conference road games is outstanding and is what you need to win championships. But it has to come with home dominance as well.

To be fair, it is probably worth noting that consistent large crowds at home might help to shore up that home record. But it has been apparent for some time now that we are not a fan base that will support our team no matter what.

[alaback]

Sadly, it hasn't moved forward one bit.

See the warning on trolling.

[Kevin McPherson]

1.   "IF they Dance, it's really hard to argue that the program is NOT running 2nd behind KY over the past 3 seasons with better days ahead when you consider who they have coming in."  - My waiting till after the season was in response to your comment.  I'm good to talk about it now.  My opinion hasn't changed because of the last 3 halves of basketball nor this season for that matter.  I don't take a game to game, season to season myopic view.

2.  Didn't say anything about winning them all.  Left off the list AU, Florida and SC.  Because had we beaten the others listed, maybe not even all, we still would be in position to make the NCAAT this season. 

3.  14-15 was the quietest 27 win team from a major conference as you will find.  Beating UGa and OM on the road were the highlights along with that one possession win over Winthrop.

4.  Still ignoring who Qualls and Williams were I see.  Mike hasn't had the Pelphrey problems.  But like with many of the claims made before he was hired, the notion he wouldn't hasn't shown true as he has had his discipline issues.  The only thing you hold Mike responsible for, and not as much now, is the Kapita risk. 

Looks like it will be 2 in 6 navy.

1. Again, you had no problem falling in with doom-sayers after the Mizzou and Vandy losses, but then lecture me about speculating on IFs while suggesting we wait till the end of the season to talk big picture. No way to spin that, all of it is speculation to some degree until the dust settles when the season is over. Pot meet kettle.

2. You said quantity mattered. "Qty would have gotten the Hogs in this season ... Going into the last half of the SEC, could have beaten Bama, Mizzou, LSU, A&M, Vandy OM and UGa and made the NCAAT." Quantity does not matter as much as quality, and that was my point. Again, you can plug in Ws over SCar (a team we were not favored to beat) and LSU and the L to Mizzou -- all of which actually happened -- and that 2-1 run is better (at least as good) as a 3-0 run against MSU, at Mizzou, and at LSU (all games Hogs were favored or should have won. Less (fewer wins) is more in that scenario. You didn't use the words "win them ALL", but I assumed you listed Bama, Mizzou, LSU, A&M, Vandy, OM, and GA because you are saying the Hogs should win them all. On paper, yes, but on paper they should also lose to SCar on the road. It's why I made the point that it doesn't work that way for ANYBODY in college basketball. Even the best teams lose games they shouldn't and find ways to steal a few that are either toss-ups or that they were not favored to win.

Now, Hogs can't keep losing home games, and I'm not saying that is okay. At some point, quantity does matter. How many you win at home, road, neutral all factor in, but the quality baked into those numbers is what will determine NCAAT or NIT.

3. See, you qualify the win over Winthrop with "one possession win over Winthrop" ... so what! How many 5 seeds have lost to quality mid- and low-majors that are 12 seeds? A lot, every year. Beyond that, how many 2, 3, and 4 seeds have been sent home after one game? That's a sophomore mentality, honestly, and is either not an honest or not an educated assessment of the quality of the win, or how difficult even the first game of the NCAAT is for the majority of teams, ranked teams.

I acknowledged that Arkansas didn't have a win against a ranked team, but part of that is lack of opportunity. All games against ranked opponents -- KY twice, Iowa State, UNC -- were on the road or neutral. Half of those were against KY, which didn't lose a game until the national semifinals against Wisconsin. Hogs did win at SMU, which was ranked during the season (but not when Hogs beat them), and so was Dayton at times (who Hogs beat at home by 14). Arkansas beat GA (NCAAT team) twice, both times away from home. Hogs split w/Ole Miss, also an NCAAT team.

Regardless, the fact that coaches and the press -- we're talking national, not those confined to Arkansas -- saw fit to rank the Hogs in the Top 20 for 3/4s of the season, including at the end, means the Hogs were on the national radar regardles of their lack of wins against ranked opponents.

4. You can add Dustin Thomas (fake bills) in w/Beard & Jacorey, and even the Qualls problems (aside from being in CMA's doghouse and not getting to start a couple of times for breaking team rules, I don't ever remember him being suspended, maybe he was) -- BUT add those together, and you still have less than 1/10th of the ongoing problems that Pel had. Look, all schools have player issues. Coach K is dealing with a borderline personality at Duke this year. MA's run a clean shop, and aside from a few outlier examples, there is no turmoil in the program. Honestly, even the biggest of CMA naysayers doesn't suggest player issues are a part of their concerns. You might be the president and only member of that club.

[sowmonella]

Quality back-and-forth by Atlhogfan1 and HOGdayafternoon, two of my favorite posters. Each backing their points up well with reason, logic and facts.

Refreshing isn't it.

[Atlhogfan1]

1. Again, you had no problem falling in with doom-sayers after the Mizzou and Vandy losses, but then lecture me about speculating on IFs while suggesting we wait till the end of the season to talk big picture. No way to spin that, all of it is speculation to some degree until the dust settles when the season is over. Pot meet kettle.

2. You said quantity mattered. "Qty would have gotten the Hogs in this season ... Going into the last half of the SEC, could have beaten Bama, Mizzou, LSU, A&M, Vandy OM and UGa and made the NCAAT." Quantity does not matter as much as quality, and that was my point. Again, you can plug in Ws over SCar (a team we were not favored to beat) and LSU and the L to Mizzou -- all of which actually happened -- and that 2-1 run is better (at least as good) as a 3-0 run against MSU, at Mizzou, and at LSU (all games Hogs were favored or should have won. Less (fewer wins) is more in that scenario. You didn't use the words "win them ALL", but I assumed you listed Bama, Mizzou, LSU, A&M, Vandy, OM, and GA because you are saying the Hogs should win them all. On paper, yes, but on paper they should also lose to SCar on the road. It's why I made the point that it doesn't work that way for ANYBODY in college basketball. Even the best teams lose games they shouldn't and find ways to steal a few that are either toss-ups or that they were not favored to win.

Now, Hogs can't keep losing home games, and I'm not saying that is okay. At some point, quantity does matter. How many you win at home, road, neutral all factor in, but the quality baked into those numbers is what will determine NCAAT or NIT.

3. See, you qualify the win over Winthrop with "one possession win over Winthrop" ... so what! How many 5 seeds have lost to quality mid- and low-majors that are 12 seeds? A lot, every year. Beyond that, how many 2, 3, and 4 seeds have been sent home after one game? That's a sophomore mentality, honestly, and is either not an honest or not an educated assessment of the quality of the win, or how difficult even the first game of the NCAAT is for the majority of teams, ranked teams.

I acknowledged that Arkansas didn't have a win against a ranked team, but part of that is lack of opportunity. All games against ranked opponents -- KY twice, Iowa State, UNC -- were on the road or neutral. Half of those were against KY, which didn't lose a game until the national semifinals against Wisconsin. Hogs did win at SMU, which was ranked during the season (but not when Hogs beat them), and so was Dayton at times (who Hogs beat at home by 14). Arkansas beat GA (NCAAT team) twice, both times away from home. Hogs split w/Ole Miss, also an NCAAT team.

Regardless, the fact that coaches and the press -- we're talking national, not those confined to Arkansas -- saw fit to rank the Hogs in the Top 20 for 3/4s of the season, including at the end, means the Hogs were on the national radar regardles of their lack of wins against ranked opponents.

4. You can add Dustin Thomas (fake bills) in w/Beard & Jacorey, and even the Qualls problems (aside from being in CMA's doghouse and not getting to start a couple of times for breaking team rules, I don't ever remember him being suspended, maybe he was) -- BUT add those together, and you still have less than 1/10th of the ongoing problems that Pel had. Look, all schools have player issues. Coach K is dealing with a borderline personality at Duke this year. MA's run a clean shop, and aside from a few outlier examples, there is no turmoil in the program. Honestly, even the biggest of CMA naysayers doesn't suggest player issues are a part of their concerns. You might be the president and only member of that club.

Didn't quite fall in line as I never took making the NCAAT off the table.  You made these bold hard selling threads.  Just responding to them as you don't care to put much context in them.   Have to drag some out of you. 

Qty would have gotten the Hogs in had it played out that way. 

Some of the national talk was the not buying into the Hogs because of the schedule.  Did get ranked on record.  Not so much who the wins came against. 

I'm not in any club especially in regards to program turmoil.   Don't exaggerate. 

[HogBreath]

Being 2nd over the last 3 years is nice, but it looked like we were 3 games out of 7th place also, and a quite a ways behind the #1 team.

[Vandyhog4]

How badly does the data get skewed when you go back 4 years?  For example, taking Florida's 2014 season (18-0 regular season and conference tournament championship) into account. 

[Otis]

How badly does the data get skewed when you go back 4 years?  For example, taking Florida's 2014 season (18-0 regular season and conference tournament championship) into account.

That wouldn't fit the narrative.

[hawginbigd1]

Lotta "message board" banners being hung daily that the state of the program is a disaster, and that the HC can't coach. Might as well hang some banners with data and facts that suggest otherwise. Just a thought.

You have some good points but A. This is by God Arkansas, I have been a fan since Eddie began building this thing, and Kentucky is the only team that can compete with us as far as tourney success over that time period. (Florida is a recent development).
B. Your information accentuates how bad the SEC really is, I don't give a rats behind what everybody else is doing, get us in the dance and competing for the title those are my expectations, I am not into participation trophies.

I appreciate the info and perspective.