statistical analysis and prognostications for the season

[flippinhogmana]

One of the fundamental rules of statistical analysis is that the bigger the sample, and the more it is longitudinal in sample size, the more accurate it is for forming correlations.  We are a third of the season gone, we've had some ups (like beating LSU two nights ago, like the first half of the game against Maryland, like opening weekend) and we have had some downs (like last night and last weekend against Vandy). 

Keep in mind that figures don't lie, but liars use figures and that a fellow with a foot in a bucket of ice and the other foot in fire is, on the average, comfortable.  So with all that said how do I think we end up the year?  I would say how are we doing, but that is all to obvious.  I think (once again, I did waver for a day after our loss to SEMO) that we are okay by SEC and NCAA tourney time.  I don't mean that we just get in, I mean we are an effective team with a legitimate chance to go deep toward the CWS by then.

Why?  Even in the darkest of times we have had glimmers of our potential, and not only that but hints of realizing that potential.  Game one against Vandy, we were actually doing rather well in that game for a considerable amount of time.  Could very well have won that game, despite its outcome.  Two runs for Killian and Stone and we win the rubber game of the series.  Impossible?  Not when the team gets going.  So then of 5 SEC games so far against two of the best five team not only in the conference but nation, we have not only held our own, despite stinking it up a few moments.  We are 1-4, but could be 3-2.  Legitimately could be 3-2. 

In balance, today's game will tell me not whether we get there, but how soon.  If we win today and take the series, it will not announce that we have arrived, but it will be another major step closer.  If we loose badly, we will have to pick ourselves off the deck again.  PLs, PLs, PLs hogs score some runs (like in the first inning even) for brother Killian for a change.

[ricepig]

I suspect that after this weekend we will be on a Tacco-Killian-TBD, or Killian-Tacco-TBD rotation for conference games, I'll take my chances with that. After you throw in Jackson and Stone, we have no one I have confidence in to get an out in SEC play.

As far as hitting and scoring, it is good enough to win most nights, if we don't give up 5+ runs.

[flippinhogmana]

I suspect that after this weekend we will be on a Tacco-Killian-TBD, or Killian-Tacco-TBD rotation for conference games, I'll take my chances with that. After you throw in Jackson and Stone, we have no one I have confidence in to get an out in SEC play.

As far as hitting and scoring, it is good enough to win most nights, if we don't give up 5+ runs.

Yep, that is more accurate than I like to think about.  McKinney was on the verge of emerging and a couple more have seemed close at times.  There is a lack of confidence in some of these pitchers that they may never had before.  Some of them will get it together and reemerge.  I would be nice not to be playing top five teams right now.  So far to date we have played seven games against ranked teams (and another today).

[jry04]

I think biggest key to our season is winning the mid-week games. I feel we will have good enough weekend pitching to go .500 in SEC play. Winning today would be a huge step in that direction. However, we cannot afford to lose to teams like Memphis, Creighton, and MVSU down the stretch and still make the NCAAt. This season is frustrating because we legit blew the games against Maryland, SEMO, and Vandy. We really should be no worse than 14-7 with 2 additional top 25 wins and boarder line top 25 ourselves.

I still think we finish strong, and win 32-34 games and put ourselves in a position to make the NCAAT. First, we have to take care of business today.

[flippinhogmana]

I think biggest key to our season is winning the mid-week games. I feel we will have good enough weekend pitching to go .500 in SEC play. Winning today would be a huge step in that direction. However, we cannot afford to lose to teams like Memphis, Creighton, and MVSU down the stretch and still make the NCAAt. This season is frustrating because we legit blew the games against Maryland, SEMO, and Vandy. We really should be no worse than 14-7 with 2 additional top 25 wins and boarder line top 25 ourselves.

I still think we finish strong, and win 32-34 games and put ourselves in a position to make the NCAAT. First, we have to take care of business today.

I suspect that after this weekend we will be on a Tacco-Killian-TBD, or Killian-Tacco-TBD rotation for conference games, I'll take my chances with that. After you throw in Jackson and Stone, we have no one I have confidence in to get an out in SEC play.

As far as hitting and scoring, it is good enough to win most nights, if we don't give up 5+ runs.

Actually if you think about it (about what ricepig says especially), this year, more than any other year, the midweeks are developmental only in their importance.  Sure we need to go at least fifty/fifty in them, but at this point we need to use them to develop pitchers. If we go .500 in league play, do decent in the SEC tournament, we will go post season.  But we have to develop pitching as we go along or we dont go very far after that.

[TikiHog]

going into todays game SOS 115  RPI 135    every single game is important

[ricepig]

going into todays game SOS 115  RPI 135    every single game is important

I agree every game is important, but we don't have the arms for a weekend series, much less the mid-week games. We just have to roll someone out and hope they magically find it.

[flippinhogmana]

going into todays game SOS 115  RPI 135    every single game is important

I agree every game is important, but we don't have the arms for a weekend series, much less the mid-week games. We just have to roll someone out and hope they magically find it.

Tiki, I do not in any way fail to see or to the degree that I can, heed the soundness of your words.  However, my point is that I don't believe we are going to get a high seed, a regional and certainly not a super regional.  We have often failed to get those when we have had a better record than we are likely to have this year.

What I am set on is developing the team to making the field, even if it is by the skin of our teeth, that and developing particularly our pitching staff so we have a shot at advancing to a super and then the CWS.  Its seems to me given the accuracy of Rice's statement also, we start with concentrating our most proven pitching on the weekends and let the other come along as we work on it.  We will win some of the week day series simply because of better, albeit unproven and inconsistent talent.  We have to take some series and we need to start soon.

The next three weeks, perhaps even the next two, is going to show whether we have a rational shot at it, or if we are just loyal fans who don't really care about logic and reality.  We play midweek with Memphis (one game LR, one in Memphis).  They are 13-4,  winning the last nine, but they really haven't played anyone since the first two games that they dropped to ORU.

Then we play Ole Miss, they are 3-3 in conference, we need to take two of three, which I believe is doable.  Not a slam dunk, though.  They won one of three from UCF.  They won one of three from LSU (at LSU) and two of three from Florida who is supposed to be good (at UM).  Florida is supposed to be good but hasn't proven it so much.  Besides dropping the series to Ole Miss they won a series from Tenner who isn't so hot.

Between UM and AU (who is also 1-5 ) we have Missouri State, they are pretty decent too, with a 12-7 record, but they have lost to every major college they've played (mostly Big12).  The following week we have Mississippi Valley state that sucks (4-10) and then Kentucky (2-3 at present)

These three weeks will tell us a lot about whether we logically have reason for optimism this year or not, and about how to project this team's post season possibilities.