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FWIW, Lunardi's updated Bracketology (Thurs 01/12 post-MSSt-meltdown) ...

Started by Kevin McPherson, January 12, 2017, 05:59:25 pm

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hogwood

If the season ended today, maybe. But there are still a lot of games left for us to play ourselves out... Or in.

 

latrops

Dang.  If only the season ended today.  Nevermind that Lunardi's projections don't actually count for anything.

daprospecta

Quote from: latrops on January 12, 2017, 06:04:56 pm
Dang.  If only the season ended today.  Nevermind that Lunardi's projections don't actually count for anything.
He's usually about 98% right or higher. I would say they most certainly count.

HogBreath

Let me guess...Florida, Kentucky, Minnesota & Mississippi State are all #1 seeds,  IUPUW is a #2 seed since they beat Indiana.
I said...LSU has often been an overrated team.

That ignoramus Draconian Sanctions said..if we're overrated, why are we ranked higher than you are?

wheelspigharvey

This post about how we're still in the tournament is way below multiple posts assuming we won't be (and in some cases, hoping we won't be).

The_Iceman

If you can't beat Mississippi state at home, that doesn't bode well for finishing strong the rest of the year. Especially with the evidence of Mike's coaching ability we got in his "Mic'd up" segment.

hogsanity

Quote from: HogBreath on January 12, 2017, 09:22:59 pm
Let me guess...Florida, Kentucky, Minnesota & Mississippi State are all #1 seeds,  IUPUW is a #2 seed since they beat Indiana.

that iupuw win over Indiana is not as big as it once was. Indiana is 11-6 overall, and 11th in conference.

Quote from: wheelspigharvey on January 13, 2017, 09:32:11 am
This post about how we're still in the tournament is way below multiple posts assuming we won't be (and in some cases, hoping we won't be).


Well it does say something that a team with only 4 losses is only an 11 seed ( projected obviously ).
People ask me what I do in winter when there is no baseball.  I will tell you what I do. I stare out the window, and I wait for spring.

"Anything goes wrong, anything at all, your fault, my fault, nobodies fault, I'm going to blow your head off."  John Wayne in BIG JAKE

batmanfan

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wheelspigharvey

Quote from: The_Iceman on January 13, 2017, 09:35:42 am
If you can't beat Mississippi state at home, that doesn't bode well for finishing strong the rest of the year. Especially with the evidence of Mike's coaching ability we got in his "Mic'd up" segment.

That whole game was really bad including those segments, I agree. In earlier games this season I would think well we're going down and we'd find a way out, but man not on Tuesday.

I guess for me I have no choice but to wait the season to play out so I will. But I will say that 14/15 team had that Clemson loss, and I was at that Ole Miss loss at home where we just looked completely gassed (they were a much better team than MSU is this season, I know). We found a way through that though. This team could still push through too.

wheelspigharvey

Quote from: hogsanity on January 13, 2017, 09:35:54 am
Well it does say something that a team with only 4 losses is only an 11 seed ( projected obviously ).

True

hogsanity

Quote from: wheelspigharvey on January 13, 2017, 09:55:11 am
That whole game was really bad including those segments, I agree. In earlier games this season I would think well we're going down and we'd find a way out, but man not on Tuesday.

I guess for me I have no choice but to wait the season to play out so I will. But I will say that 14/15 team had that Clemson loss, and I was at that Ole Miss loss at home where we just looked completely gassed (they were a much better team than MSU is this season, I know). We found a way through that though. This team could still push through too.

That team had Portis and Qualls who, at different times, both put the team on their shoulders for long stretches in game, or even long stretches of entire games. No one on this team is capable of doing that. Both of those guys were matchup problems for just about everyone they played. The Hogs really have no one that creates that kid of problem for most of the opponents. 
People ask me what I do in winter when there is no baseball.  I will tell you what I do. I stare out the window, and I wait for spring.

"Anything goes wrong, anything at all, your fault, my fault, nobodies fault, I'm going to blow your head off."  John Wayne in BIG JAKE

wheelspigharvey

Quote from: hogsanity on January 13, 2017, 10:01:05 am
That team had Portis and Qualls who, at different times, both put the team on their shoulders for long stretches in game, or even long stretches of entire games. No one on this team is capable of doing that. Both of those guys were matchup problems for just about everyone they played. The Hogs really have no one that creates that kid of problem for most of the opponents.

I had been hoping Macon would be that guy this season, maybe it's not too late.

 

Letsroll1200


Next1_04

Quote from: HOGdayafternoon on January 12, 2017, 05:59:25 pm
https://twitter.com/ARHoopScoop/status/819625059853680642

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology







Careful before you post anything that might even hint towards a positive thought in a place where people who be absolutely mortified if they won a Billion Dollar lottery and were paid in $20 bills instead of $100 bills are running rampant.

cardsNhogs

This is based on right now. When it's said and done we will have RPI outside the top 50 with Zero Good Wins. I'm guessing from last game we will be adding several bad losses to go along with Miss St.

Kevin McPherson

Quote from: Next1_04 on January 13, 2017, 10:28:48 am
Careful before you post anything that might even hint towards a positive thought in a place where people who be absolutely mortified if they won a Billion Dollar lottery and were paid in $20 bills instead of $100 bills are running rampant.

Haha, you're right. And it wasn't meant as a positive or negative thought ... it's simply pointing out a fact that Joe Lunardi, one of the best in the business at projecting NCAAT field, still has the Hogs in EVEN AFTER HOME LOSS TO MSU ... the weekly Bracketology update obviously changes based on Ws, Ls, RPI, SOS, and other factors as the season moves along, but I personally thought the Hogs would go from a projected 8-seed to on the wrong side of the bubble in the "projections" based on the loss to MSSt being their 3rd out of 4 games to start SEC play.


Atlhogfan1

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/rpi/_/teamId/8
34. Hogs

Only teams above us in RPI winless vs Top 50 RPI teams = UNC Wilmington and Wake who is 0-7 vs RPI Top 50.  An example of why the RPI is just one piece used by the committee.  Wake will have to beat someone at some point. 

Hogs
vs. RPI TOP 25 0-3
vs. RPI TOP 50 0-3

UPCOMING GAMES TIME
248 Jan. 14 Missouri 6:00 PM
76 Jan. 17 @ Texas A&M 7:00 PM
92 Jan. 21 LSU 8:30 PM
56 Jan. 24 @ Vanderbilt 8:30 PM
55 Jan. 28 @ Oklahoma State 4:00 PM
82 Feb. 1 Alabama 7:00 PM
248 Feb. 4 @ Missouri 6:00 PM
56 Feb. 7 Vanderbilt 8:30 PM
92 Feb. 11 @ LSU 8:30 PM
24 Feb. 15 @ South Carolina 6:30 PM
48 Feb. 18 Ole Miss 6:00 PM
76 Feb. 22 Texas A&M 8:30 PM
80 Feb. 25 @ Auburn 8:30 PM
3 Mar. 1 @ Florida 7:00 PM
31 Mar. 4 Georgia 2:00 PM


We should be appreciative of Ole Miss for having a NCSOS of 28 helping their RPI.  UGa NCSOS 15.
Quote from: MaconBacon on March 22, 2018, 10:30:04 amWe had a good run in the 90's and one NC and now the whole state still laments that we are a top seed program and have kids standing in line to come to good ole Arkansas.  We're just a flash in the pan boys. 

Atlhogfan1

An example of a team we may end up having our resume compared to:

USC  - Pac 12 similar to SEC in terms of good teams, mediocre teams.  They just don't have those 2 extra bottomfeeders we do. 

2-3 in conference as of now
NCSOS 134

UPCOMING GAMES TIME
70 Jan. 15 @ Colorado 8:30 PM
13 Jan. 19 Arizona 9:00 PM
106 Jan. 22 Arizona State 8:30 PM
20 Jan. 25 UCLA 11:00 PM
167 Feb. 1 @ Washington 11:00 PM
182 Feb. 4 @ Washington State 8:00 PM
301 Feb. 9 Oregon State 11:00 PM
11 Feb. 11 Oregon 10:30 PM
20 Feb. 18 @ UCLA 10:00 PM
13 Feb. 23 @ Arizona 10:00 PM
106 Feb. 26 @ Arizona State 6:30 PM
182 Mar. 1 Washington State 10:00 PM
167 Mar. 4 Washington 6:30 PM

1 top 50 RPI win over SMU
5 games left vs Top 25 RPI with 0 games vs 26-50

What does the committee do if USC ends up 23-8 losing to all 5 of those RPI Top 25 opponents and beating those 70-301?  Best win vs SMU. 

ROAD W-L 3-2 currently.
Quote from: MaconBacon on March 22, 2018, 10:30:04 amWe had a good run in the 90's and one NC and now the whole state still laments that we are a top seed program and have kids standing in line to come to good ole Arkansas.  We're just a flash in the pan boys. 

realistichog

We will finish 19-12 at best with a losing record in SEC. We ain't going to no dance!

Next1_04