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How many NCAA Tourney invites?

Started by awshucks, February 19, 2018, 02:08:46 pm

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awshucks

As I look at the SEC and the team records I have a couple of questions:

1.  Currently Kentucky is 18 - 9, and 7 - 7 in conf. play.  If they go 2 -2 in the last 4 games of the reg. season they are 20-11.  Do they get into the tourney?

2.  Texas A&M is another seriously questionable call.  How can they be a 6th seed (according to Lunardi)  with a current record of 17 - 10?  If they split the last 4 they are 19-12 (and are 8 - 11 in their last 19 games).

In:  Auburn, Tennessee and Arkansas.

Probably in: Alabama

Questionable:  Kentucky and Texas A&M     

hawg66

You forgot Mizzou. Kentucky will definitely be in if they finish .500 in conference. I agree, A&M has some work to do. If they can get to 20 wins overall including the SEC tourney I think they'll be in. Lots of solid teams in the SEC this year.

 

parallaxpig

noun: parallax<br />the effect whereby the position or direction of an object appears to differ when viewed from different positions,

gmarv54

We still need to win 2 more to feel comfortable about getting in.Win 1 and finish 9-9 in the conference maybe we are in.Win more than 2 and we can start speculating on seeding.

awshucks

Quote from: parallaxpig on February 19, 2018, 04:06:33 pm
8 will make it

Auburn, Tennessee, Arkansas, Kentucky, Missouri, Alabama, Florida.....and?

Atlhogfan1

Quote from: awshucks on February 20, 2018, 12:00:14 pm
Auburn, Tennessee, Arkansas, Kentucky, Missouri, Alabama, Florida.....and?

A&M

Florida may be in the most danger of missing at this point although they have a number of good RPI wins which will help them against other bubble candidates. 
Quote from: MaconBacon on March 22, 2018, 10:30:04 amWe had a good run in the 90's and one NC and now the whole state still laments that we are a top seed program and have kids standing in line to come to good ole Arkansas.  We're just a flash in the pan boys. 

ShadowHawg

Quote from: awshucks on February 20, 2018, 12:00:14 pm
Auburn, Tennessee, Arkansas, Kentucky, Missouri, Alabama, Florida.....and?

A&M and LSU is closer than most realize. They have beaten Michigan, Houston, Us, and A&M.

Atlhogfan1

LSU's non conference SOS is a negative. It's holding down their RPI while A&M's is inflated by theirs.  They would need to win out vs Vandy, @UGa, @SC and Miss St. 
Quote from: MaconBacon on March 22, 2018, 10:30:04 amWe had a good run in the 90's and one NC and now the whole state still laments that we are a top seed program and have kids standing in line to come to good ole Arkansas.  We're just a flash in the pan boys. 

niels_boar

UGA could still play their way in, too.  They have home games against A&M and LSU remaining, which could essentially be elimination games depending on how things shake out. 
The jawbone of an ass is just as dangerous a weapon today as in Sampson's time.

hogsanity

8 is likely. 7 is very possible. 9 is a reach. More likely someone plays their way out than in at this point.
People ask me what I do in winter when there is no baseball.  I will tell you what I do. I stare out the window, and I wait for spring.

"Anything goes wrong, anything at all, your fault, my fault, nobodies fault, I'm going to blow your head off."  John Wayne in BIG JAKE

Atlhogfan1

https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d1/ncaa-mens-basketball-rpi

The potential 8th-9th team NCAA RPI's.
Florida 64th but with an opportunity with a schedule of @Tenn, AU, @Bama, UK
UGa 66th
MSU 71st - just one road win
LSU 75th
Quote from: MaconBacon on March 22, 2018, 10:30:04 amWe had a good run in the 90's and one NC and now the whole state still laments that we are a top seed program and have kids standing in line to come to good ole Arkansas.  We're just a flash in the pan boys. 

niels_boar

Quote from: Atlhogfan1 on February 20, 2018, 12:56:27 pm
https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d1/ncaa-mens-basketball-rpi

The potential 8th-9th team NCAA RPI's.
Florida 64th but with an opportunity with a schedule of @Tenn, AU, @Bama, UK
UGa 66th
MSU 71st - just one road win
LSU 75th

MSU probably has to have 11 SEC wins after the SECT to have any shot.  Their nonconference schedule was turrible.  Their only game of note was at Cincy, where they got clobbered.  The rest can point to some impressive nonconference results if they can get on a win streak late. 

With wins over the Zags and Cincy UF doesn't have to do much.  Neither does A&M.  My guess is that LSU, UGA, and MSU will stumble enough for their bubbles to burst, but they can all still win their way in without help.
The jawbone of an ass is just as dangerous a weapon today as in Sampson's time.

Atlhogfan1

Quote from: niels_boar on February 20, 2018, 01:18:37 pm
MSU probably has to have 11 SEC wins after the SECT to have any shot.  Their nonconference schedule was turrible.  Their only game of note was at Cincy, where they got clobbered.  The rest can point to some impressive nonconference results if they can get on a win streak late. 

With wins over the Zags and Cincy UF doesn't have to do much.  Neither does A&M.  My guess is that LSU, UGA, and MSU will stumble enough for their bubbles to burst, but they can all still win their way in without help.

Florida needs to win one of these last 4.  If finish 1-3, may need 1 in SECT depending what other bubble teams do.  Doubt they finish 0-4 but that would make things interesting for them.

I'm giving MSU no shot due to their non conf as I don't see them going on the run it would take to overcome it. 
Quote from: MaconBacon on March 22, 2018, 10:30:04 amWe had a good run in the 90's and one NC and now the whole state still laments that we are a top seed program and have kids standing in line to come to good ole Arkansas.  We're just a flash in the pan boys. 

 

Atlhogfan1

Bad night for Mizzou and A&M. 

A&M in a weird spot.  RPI still inflated due to schedule. But 6-9 in SEC. Only one team has ever made the tourney as an at large 4 games under .500 in their conference.  A&M has to win 2 more or go on a run in St L. 

Mizzou now very much on the bubble.  Geist plays them into losses. 

MSU still needs more good wins to overcome that SOS.
Quote from: MaconBacon on March 22, 2018, 10:30:04 amWe had a good run in the 90's and one NC and now the whole state still laments that we are a top seed program and have kids standing in line to come to good ole Arkansas.  We're just a flash in the pan boys. 

userpick

Quote from: Atlhogfan1 on February 20, 2018, 11:29:57 pm
Bad night for Mizzou and A&M. 

A&M in a weird spot.  RPI still inflated due to schedule. But 6-9 in SEC. Only one team has ever made the tourney as an at large 4 games under .500 in their conference.  A&M has to win 2 more or go on a run in St L. 

Mizzou now very much on the bubble.  Geist plays them into losses. 

MSU still needs more good wins to overcome that SOS.


A&M will be in unless they lose every game from tonight through SECT. They've got 7 quad 1 wins.

Atlhogfan1

Quote from: userpick on February 20, 2018, 11:33:48 pm
A&M will be in unless they lose every game from tonight through SECT. They've got 7 quad 1 wins.

7-11 in SEC and early SECT exit would be precarious.  A&M like the Hogs in that it's almost harder for them to miss the tourney than make it due to the RPI manipulation and resume numbers you mentioned.
Quote from: MaconBacon on March 22, 2018, 10:30:04 amWe had a good run in the 90's and one NC and now the whole state still laments that we are a top seed program and have kids standing in line to come to good ole Arkansas.  We're just a flash in the pan boys. 

hogsanity

Quote from: Atlhogfan1 on February 20, 2018, 11:40:14 pm
7-11 in SEC and early SECT exit would be precarious.  A&M like the Hogs in that it's almost harder for them to miss the tourney than make it due to the RPI manipulation and resume numbers you mentioned.

If they make it in at 7-11, that is a farce.
People ask me what I do in winter when there is no baseball.  I will tell you what I do. I stare out the window, and I wait for spring.

"Anything goes wrong, anything at all, your fault, my fault, nobodies fault, I'm going to blow your head off."  John Wayne in BIG JAKE