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  • #5251 by sir-pigs-a-lot on 15 Oct 2013
  • anyone on the western petrinos at -3 tonight? over is also 62, which both teams average 30+ per game with less than effective defenses.

    Great value. I'm getting -3.5 at +105. It's good for a 2 unit play for me.
  • #5252 by widespreadsooie on 15 Oct 2013
  • ULL ML +150/ 1u to win 1.5
  • #5253 by nughaud on 15 Oct 2013
  • Florida -3 (Looks like line is -3.5 everywhere I look now) Too much Def, not worried about starting RB out, as backups are really good. Mizzu starting new redshirt freshman Maty Mauk, which I believe has thrown only 5 or 6 passes on the year. Vegas books were at -1 Mizzu before QB got hurt. I think Franklin was worth a lot more than -4.

    BYU anything -10 and under is good against overrated Houston team. BYU looks like they are getting better and they have a really good defense.

    I like Miami against UNC, but with it being an away game on the road on a Thursday, those are just weird games. I'd prefer to buy down to -7, although they are easily a 2 TD+ better team.

    I'm in love with Utah, even if they are on the road and they are getting points. It was +5 when I saw it the other day, but I think it's come down to +4.5. They should dominate this game and Utah has been in some tough games already this year. Yes, I know they just came off a big win at Stanford, but give me the points all day please.

    I love Auburn getting +13.5 against A&M. I'm not sure if A&M's best DB is going to be out, as he was injured in the last game, but Auburn has a darn good team this year. Their only loss was to LSU by 2 TDs, and this was after being down 21-0. They had 3 turnovers to LSU's 2, and other than that the stats were pretty close. That was Auburn's 1st road game of the year, and they've continued to get better. I can seriously see Auburn making a game of this and possibly winning.  Buying the hook isn't a bad idea either. They will also be in some of my teasers.

    I like Oregon St again against an over-matched Cal team. The spread can still be had for -10, and this is a good one to tease or ML parlay with other plays.

    I also like Purdue +26.5, even though Mich St is getting more going on offense. I think Purdue can stay in this game just enough to cover a large spread, particularly against a Mich St team that's not had a tendency to score a ton of points.
  • #5254 by DadVader1 on 15 Oct 2013
  • Congrats & Good Call on the ULL ML action!  That took stones ... and paid off.
  • #5255 by widespreadsooie on 16 Oct 2013
  • Congrats & Good Call on the ULL ML action!  That took stones ... and paid off.

    Appreciate it. Have another one I'm looking at it and would like hear what the systems have to say: Cincy -14?
  • #5256 by sir-pigs-a-lot on 16 Oct 2013
  • #5257 by sir-pigs-a-lot on 16 Oct 2013
  • Lost 2 MLB plays in a row. Gotta get back on track....

    Dodgers -160.   5 units
  • #5258 by widespreadsooie on 16 Oct 2013
  • Thanks sir pigs.

    Added Cincy -13.5/ 2.5u

    Left on the radar:

    MIZ +3
    MIZ/FL u44.5
    UGA/Vandy o61.5
    WF/MD u50
  • #5259 by DadVader1 on 16 Oct 2013
  • I didn't get a chance to answer your question on Cincy before you made the play.  Nothing really jumps out on that game.  My favorite systems are fairly evenly divided on that game, but the general consensus of all systems leans Cincy (Avg 14.6, Med. 15.1). Two of the better systems see it as an 18 point game or 16 point game.

    Now I'm disappointed that the system data that I needed didn't get here until Wed. morning (after the Tues. game).  The three games that come up in the best combination of positive trends is East Carolina, Akron, and ULL.  Oh well, I probably would have passed on ULL on the basis that it was a Tuesday game and I doubt the systems know how to account for Tuesday games. 

    Virtually all of them also have MIZ, but I don't think the systems can adequately account for Georgia's injuries (in weighing MIZ's win last week), and I don't think they can adequately account for MIZ losing it's star, veteran QB for this week.  Too many question marks for my taste.

    Here's what I've done so far:

    Bama -28  2 units
    Toledo - 7   3 units
    Rice -17.5  3 units
    E.Carolina -22.5   3 units
    Ore St. -9.5   3 units
    Akron -7  3 units
    Ball St. -18.5  2 units
  • #5260 by widespreadsooie on 16 Oct 2013
  • I didn't get a chance to answer your question on Cincy before you made the play.  Nothing really jumps out on that game.  My favorite systems are fairly evenly divided on that game, but the general consensus of all systems leans Cincy (Avg 14.6, Med. 15.1). Two of the better systems see it as an 18 point game or 16 point game.

    Now I'm disappointed that the system data that I needed didn't get here until Wed. morning (after the Tues. game).  The three games that come up in the best combination of positive trends is East Carolina, Akron, and ULL.  Oh well, I probably would have passed on ULL on the basis that it was a Tuesday game and I doubt the systems know how to account for Tuesday games. 

    Virtually all of them also have MIZ, but I don't think the systems can adequately account for Georgia's injuries (in weighing MIZ's win last week), and I don't think they can adequately account for MIZ losing it's star, veteran QB for this week.  Too many question marks for my taste.

    Here's what I've done so far:

    Bama -28  2 units
    Toledo - 7   3 units
    Rice -17.5  3 units
    E.Carolina -22.5   3 units
    Ore St. -9.5   3 units
    Akron -7  3 units
    Ball St. -18.5  2 units

    Yeah, I didn't really want to before hearing what you had to say about it but the line dropped to 13.5 in the meantime and couldn't pass it up. Hate laying multiples of sevens.
  • #5261 by DadVader1 on 16 Oct 2013
  • Hate laying multiples of sevens.

    I paid for that lesson last weekend.  I still have a few this week, but I tried to kept them to a minimum.  That's actually one of the filters that I developed this week to help find a few of those 12 for 12 trends.
  • #5262 by sir-pigs-a-lot on 16 Oct 2013
  • I played Detroit -111 but was on the softball fields so I didn't get to post it. Here is my ticket from topbet.

    Play Time:   2013-10-16 20:05
    Selection:   Detroit to win
    Boston Pitcher:   (R) J PEAVY
    Detroit Pitcher:   (R) D FISTER
    Pitcher Declaration:   LISTED
    Odds:   -111
    Bet Type:   MoneyLine
    Bet Odds:   -111
    Bet Amount:   $525.00
    Bet Payout:   $997.97
    Won Amount:   Wager Pending
    Time Placed:   2013-10-16 19:48:57


    I fall on the mercy of the courts to allow it to count. It's only the 4th inning so much can change. But it was an official play I made.
  • #5263 by widespreadsooie on 16 Oct 2013
  • Cool here sir pigs.

    LSU -8/ 4u (Biggest play of the year thus far)
    UGA/Vandy o61.5/ 2.5u

  • #5264 by DadVader1 on 16 Oct 2013
  • Here's what I've done so far:

    Bama -28  2 units
    Toledo - 7   3 units
    Rice -17.5  3 units
    E.Carolina -22.5   3 units
    Ore St. -9.5   3 units
    Akron -7  3 units
    Ball St. -18.5  2 units

    Added:
    Army +2.5  1 unit
    N. TX -6.5  1 unit

    Also added 20, tiny 3-team parlays with these teams for a combined total of 2 units:
    Toledo - 8.5
    Rice -18
    E.Carolina -22.5   
    Ore St. -10
    Akron -6.5
    Ball St. -18.5 
  • #5265 by WILL CLINTON on 17 Oct 2013
  • oh, it definitely counts. I pretty much believe the regulars here. Not that I have to because it's in black and white, but still.

    I'm going to look at a few things tomorrow, but this weekend has some potential.
  • #5266 by DadVader1 on 17 Oct 2013
  • oh, it definitely counts. I pretty much believe the regulars here.

    You have great "thread cred".
  • #5267 by widespreadsooie on 17 Oct 2013
  • Added:
    Army +2.5  1 unit
    N. TX -6.5  1 unit

    Also added 20, tiny 3-team parlays with these teams for a combined total of 2 units:
    Toledo - 8.5
    Rice -18
    E.Carolina -22.5   
    Ore St. -10
    Akron -6.5
    Ball St. -18.5 


    Like the UNT play. Since I already have 6 plays this week, I'm thinking about throwing all my other leans in 20 dollar parlay which would include UNT.

  • #5268 by DadVader1 on 17 Oct 2013
  • Yes, UNT came up in a few nice trends of 15+ hitting at over 90%, and a few larger trends of 50+ hitting at over 70%.  I've been impressed by UNT and underwhelmed by LT, and the stats seem to support the play.  UNT has small edges in passing O v. passing D and rushing O v. rushing D, larger edges in third down O v. third down D and red zone O v. red zone D, and a huge edge in turnover margin.

    I may be starting parlays a bit too soon, but they were very good to me during bowl season last year, and I now have a few sample sizes of over 50 hitting at over 70% along with some nice subsets hitting much higher, so I thought I would test the waters with a small group of parlays this week.
  • #5269 by yraciv on 17 Oct 2013
  • Well guys I'm back to take my lumps. Never quite had a season like this. All my profits on the season were drained by that dreadful week, and I was crushed by the Michigan loss. I think Paterno somehow had a hand in that one. Anyways sitting YTD 28-30 -3 units. I'll still post plays here and there if you want to fade me, but might be a good idea for me to dial it back a couple games a week.
  • #5270 by sir-pigs-a-lot on 17 Oct 2013
  • MLB:
    Tigers/sox o7   2 units

    NCAAF:
    Miami -9.5 (bought down from 10) 1 unit

    NFL:
    Hawks/cards o40  1 unit

    NHL:
    Blue jackets +130  1 unit

  • #5271 by WILL CLINTON on 17 Oct 2013
  • Miami -9  2*
    Oregon St -10  1*
    Florida -3  1*
    Oklahoma -22.5  1*

    official picks for the weekend, maybe more coming.

  • #5272 by McKdaddy on 17 Oct 2013
  • oh, it definitely counts. I pretty much believe the regulars here.
  • #5273 by McKdaddy on 17 Oct 2013
  • You have great "thread cred".

    #ThreadCred

    .....nice, +1
  • #5274 by widespreadsooie on 17 Oct 2013
  • UNC/MIA u65/ 1.5u

    Came real close to playing UNC +9.5. I see MIA coming out flat.
  • #5275 by widespreadsooie on 17 Oct 2013
  • Whoa. Vader. UNT to -3.5.
  • #5276 by WILL CLINTON on 17 Oct 2013
  • UNC/MIA u65/ 1.5u

    Came real close to playing UNC +9.5. I see MIA coming out flat.

    A bookie over on therx that posts his needs based on what he's had coming in, has UNC +9.5 as a "monster" play and over the total. Basically what he's saying is that he's had a huge amount of money come in on Miami and the under.

    It didn't faze me as i'm still on Miami as the biggest play of my weekend so far.
  • #5277 by DadVader1 on 17 Oct 2013
  • Crap!  That big of a drop normally means someone knows something that I don't.  Glad I only have 1 unit on it at the moment.  Then again, there might not be a ton of action on an "almost fcs" match-up, so maybe it doesn't take as big of a swing for the line to move (pure speculation on my part without much experience to back it up).  Unless something is up with a new injury, suspension, or something like that, it STILL looks good on paper. 
  • #5278 by DadVader1 on 17 Oct 2013
  • A large majority of the ranking systems pick Miami, but enough of the ones with better records picked UNC, so I passed.
  • #5279 by widespreadsooie on 17 Oct 2013
  • Parlay: 1u to win 15u

    IN +9.5
    Bama -28
    MIZ +130
    Akron -7
  • #5280 by widespreadsooie on 17 Oct 2013
  • Saturday card finalized:

    LSU -8/ 4u
    A&M -13.5/ 3u
    Bama -28/ 3u
    ECU -22.5/ 2.5u
    UGA/Vandy o61.5/ 2.5u
    Cincy -13.5/ 2.5u
    Parlay from above

    I don' think I've had a card full of favorites since I was naive beginner. Really liking this one though. Friday night heat is probable.
  • #5281 by DadVader1 on 18 Oct 2013
  • Most of the ranking systems like UCF tomorrow, including most of those with the better records, but a few of the systems with better records pick Louisville so it's far from unanimous. I think Louisville's stats are padded from cupcakes, and they looked unimpressive against their first mediocre team (Rutgers) last week.  UCF has faced tougher competition without getting blown out, and I don't see big mismatches in stats, so my lean is UCF at +14.5, but I plan to sit it out. 
  • #5282 by DadVader1 on 18 Oct 2013
  • I'll still post plays here and there if you want to fade me, but might be a good idea for me to dial it back a couple games a week.

    Keep posting them and don't sweat it or lose patience, hope, or sleep.  The last couple of weeks have been tough on a LOT of us, including most of the 60+ power ranking systems that I track.  There are usually a few weekends like that during a season, but it's rare for those types of weekends to last for long.  Hopefully, we're in for a few weekends of more predictable football.  I think history supports my hope/optimism.  Weekends like the last two are good reminders of why bankroll management and patience are SO important. 
  • #5283 by WILL CLINTON on 18 Oct 2013
  • Hate to start the week with a big ole 2* loss, but, oh well.

  • #5284 by DadVader1 on 18 Oct 2013
  • The LSU game didn't stand out in the spreadsheets, so I didn't research it earlier, but after looking at it, I like your LSU -8 play.  With OM having so many key injuries on D, I think Hill & Mett are going to have a very good day.  Freeze even sounded like he was throwing out preemptive excuses for a bad game.  I wish I had gotten on that before the line climbed but still went ahead and took 1 unit at -9.5.


    "It's part of the game, but you sure hate it," Freeze said. "You hate it for the kids. You fear that because of our depth issues we won't be able to adequately represent the progress we're making against these top teams. But that's part of the game. We won't blink. We'll get the ones we have ready."
  • #5285 by sir-pigs-a-lot on 18 Oct 2013
  • Dodgers -126    1 unit



    Strong UCF lean right now but holding out to see if the line will move back to 14. I would like to play it at 14.5 so I would buy the hook if it got back to 14. Less than 13.5 is a tough call. Back to my chambers to deliberate.
  • #5286 by sir-pigs-a-lot on 18 Oct 2013
  • It did exactly what I hoped and thought. Line moved to 14 and I bought the hook.

    UCF +14.5.  3 units
  • #5287 by widespreadsooie on 18 Oct 2013
  • Like UCF but playing bases tonight.

    Parlay: Cards +110/u5.5 +125

    1u to win 3.5
  • #5288 by widespreadsooie on 18 Oct 2013
  • So do some curious research on the LOU/UCF I find:

    5dimes reporting action at 55% on LOU and Sports Insights reporting actionat 55% on UCF. It's a wash, I'll treat it 50/50. The line has moved from -10.5 to -15, back to -14 now. This line movement is due to DeVante Parker playing tonight in my opinion. He's TB's number one target. He was out last week, and has been listed as a game time decision tonight but has been practicing in full pads this week.

    LOU -14/ 2u
  • #5289 by BoynamedWooPigSooie on 18 Oct 2013
  • Haven't bet in the last 3 weeks, there were only a couple games each week that seemed like slam dunks

    I think this week is a little more favorable, here's a few that I like and a couple long shots that I think could be interesting or disasters and I'm staying off them but will follow to see how off base I was.

    Okie State -7.5 against TCU at home for homecoming.  TCU hasn't done well with OSU type offenses, they've done better than most but I think OSU can win by 10.

    Bama -28 against Arkansas at home, durrrr.  It doesn't look good at all for the Hogs and Clinton-Dix getting reinstated (like we didn't see that coming) doesn't help.

    Iowa +17.5 against Ohio St., OSU wins but I think the margin is closer to 15-17 than 20. Ferentz is coming off an open date giving him extra time to plan for Meyer, I have faith that Iowa can not get blown out.

    LSU -10 against Ole Miss.  The Rebears are a bit beat up, their defense isn't too deep, and I think LSU can win in the trenches. LSU has been mashing the gas pedal in the 4th when the other teams are tiring and their depth catches up to them.  I see a couple late scores pushing this past 10 points and Ole Miss won't be able to keep up.

    Arizona St. -3.5 against Washington.  Expecting Graham to step on their throats.


    the Wildcards

    UCLA +5.5 against Stanford.  Stanford's good but not great, UCLA has recruited well and they scheme well. There might be some hangover from the Utah loss for Stanford where they looked pathetic.  It could also end in a 35 pt Stanford win, but I'm leaning towards UCLA beating the spread.

    USC +3 against Notre Dame.  It's really hard to pinpoint where these teams are going.  I hate Notre Dame more than I do USC, but I hate them both.  I think the no more Kiffin lovefest continues and a team playing loose with nothing to lose that has stacked talent is dangerous.

    Florida St. -3 against Clemson.  Gut instinct says FSU gets it done, my brain keeps telling me Dabo is luckier than Jimbo, but the ACC is screwy so I'm putting my $ on FSU.
  • #5290 by WILL CLINTON on 18 Oct 2013
  • It did exactly what I hoped and thought. Line moved to 14 and I bought the hook.

    UCF +14.5.  3 units

    From what I understand this was due to Billy Walters. Bought it when it was Louisville -10, and then hit it hard on UCF +14. Going for the middle.
  • #5291 by widespreadsooie on 18 Oct 2013
  • From what I understand this was due to Billy Walters. Bought it when it was Louisville -10, and then hit it hard on UCF +14. Going for the middle.



    I'm gonna bite. I get that Billy Walters is a respectable capper, but why?
  • #5292 by DadVader1 on 19 Oct 2013
  • Good call Sir!  You gotta love it when you don't need the hook ... or any of those 14 other points that they were spotting you. 
  • #5293 by sir-pigs-a-lot on 19 Oct 2013
  • Good call Sir!  You gotta love it when you don't need the hook ... or any of those 14 other points that they were spotting you. 

    Thanks. Didn't see the outright, but I'll take it.
  • #5294 by WILL CLINTON on 19 Oct 2013

  • I'm gonna bite. I get that Billy Walters is a respectable capper, but why?

    That dude can move a line by just releasing who he is leaning towards. He has been known to release a line he was on, just so the public jumped on it and moved it his way.

    If you are asking why he took Louisville -10 and UCF +14, he was looking to middle, As long as Louisville wins by 10 or more, but not more than 14, he wins both bets.
  • #5295 by Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson on 19 Oct 2013
  • Purdue +28 / 3 units
    Maryland -5 / 3 units
    Georgia -6.5 / 3 units
    Ole Miss +10 / 3 units
    S Carolina -7 / 4 units
  • #5296 by MuskogeeHogFan on 19 Oct 2013
  • I like USC +3 @ ND today.

    Auburn +13 @ A&M

    LSU -8 @ Ole Miss

    FSU -3 @ Clemson

    Potential upset pick of the day:
    Florida @ Missouri +3
  • #5297 by McKdaddy on 19 Oct 2013
  • Aubie v A&M is a shoot-out I'm looking forward to watching.
  • #5298 by McKdaddy on 19 Oct 2013
  • I don't know what to think about the LSU @ OM game. So many injuries on the OM side, but they are at home and defense is, at the moment, LSU's "weak" point.
  • #5299 by sir-pigs-a-lot on 19 Oct 2013
  • Clemson +4  5 units
    Indiana + 10 5 units

    Ga tech -7.    4 units

    Memphis -3.  3 units

    Oregon st. -11  2 units
    Norte dame -3. 2 units

    Clemson/fsu o63. 1 unit



    Gonna be a GREAT day boys

  • #5300 by hogball33 on 19 Oct 2013
  • 10 pt teaser. 1 unit
    Bama -20
    Clemson +13
    Texas A&m -3

    10 pt teaser 1 unit
    LSU even
    UCLA +15
    Bama -20

    ML Parley 2 units
    Texas A&M
    Ohio St
    Oklahoma
    Buffalo (College team)
     
    ML Parley 1 unit
    Texas A&M
    Ohio St
    Cincinnati Bearcats
    Green Bay Packers

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