Here is why the Hogs make it to the Sweet 16!

[WizardofhOgZ]

We're going to beat N. Carolina and go to the Sweet 16.

I have respect for their program, but this year's team is a poor man's version of Kentucky.  Good - but not "great".  And last year, our team - not nearly as good as this year's - beat UK twice.  I don't think UNC is any better than last year's Kentucky team.

Plus - our best asset in the NCAA tournament is the schedule.  In the second game of a sub-regional or regional, the teams we play don't have much time to scout and/or adjust to our style of play.  Very few of them have played anyone who plays at our pace, and the lack of preparation can really be to our advantage.  How many teams did we see fade in the last 8 minutes of the game during Nolan's various runs to the Final Four?  The same thing will happen to N. Carolina.

As evidence in support of my claim, recall that the last 3 times Nolan's teams (similar style of play) met N. Carolina in Tournament play, we had two wins that were pretty dominant and the sole loss was a 2 point game in the last minute of play; and that was to the Carolina team that went on to win the National Championship!  This year's UNC team is not Championship good, and we improving and will be confident.

People are under-valuing us because we got punked twice - recently - by Kentucky.  But that's just because we were "unlucky" enough to have to play them twice.  If anyone else had played UK twice, they'd likely have the same result.  It's not like we are "fading"; we just played the unchallenged best team and lost, as expected.  So while we might not be the best chance to beat UK, I don't think anyone else will either.  And that says NOTHING negative about our chances against "normal" teams.

[collins4heisman]

Stopped reading when you claimed the last loss to UNC was by 2 points.  Never go full retard.

[Horthawg]

I hope so. I have them making the sweet 16 in my brackets.

[Cresthog]

Umm UNC beat the living hell out of us in 2008.

108-77.

[bigred223]

We're going to beat N. Carolina and go to the Sweet 16.

I have respect for their program, but this year's team is a poor man's version of Kentucky.  Good - but not "great".  And last year, our team - not nearly as good as this year's - beat UK twice.  I don't think UNC is any better than last year's Kentucky team.

Plus - our best asset in the NCAA tournament is the schedule.  In the second game of a sub-regional or regional, the teams we play don't have much time to scout and/or adjust to our style of play.  Very few of them have played anyone who plays at our pace, and the lack of preparation can really be to our advantage.  How many teams did we see fade in the last 8 minutes of the game during Nolan's various runs to the Final Four?  The same thing will happen to N. Carolina.

As evidence in support of my claim, recall that the last 3 times we have met N. Carolina in Tournament play, we have two wins that were pretty dominant and the sole loss was a 2 point game in the last minute of play; and that was to the Carolina team that went on to win the National Championship!  This year's UNC team is not Championship good, and we improving and will be confident.

People are under-valuing us because we got punked twice - recently - by Kentucky.  But that's just because we were "unlucky" enough to have to play them twice.  If anyone else had played UK twice, they'd likely have the same result.  It's not like we are "fading"; we just played the unchallenged best team and lost, as expected.  So while we might not be the best chance to beat UK, I don't think anyone else will either.  And that says NOTHING negative about our chances against "normal" teams.

Actually we lost by 31 points in 2008. Not sure what the heck you're talking about. We can definitely take them this year though.

[WizardofhOgZ]

Umm UNC beat the living hell out of us in 2008.

108-77.

Actually we lost by 31 points in 2008. Not sure what the heck you're talking about. We can definitely take them this year though.

Yes, that is correct.  I meant to say, the last time "Hawgball" (as in the system Nolan and Mike play) met up with UNC.  What Pel dished up in 2008 had no resemblance to how we play now.  OP edited to reflect that point now.

[code red]

Agree with the assessment on UNC...but,  they will have fans galore if we meet this weekend in Jax. Our road Hogs will be tested again.  But, UNC and Hogs are almost mirror images of one another....should be high scoring is nothing else.

[High Octane Hog]

Umm UNC beat the living hell out of us in 2008.

108-77.

You had Nolan then you had Mike. Some folks, including me, have managed to block out that lost decade of basketball. Not sure 2008 matters, actually....I don't think it really ever even happened. 

[Martygit]

Actually we lost by 31 points in 2008. Not sure what the heck you're talking about. We can definitely take them this year though.

We may not get the chance

[Pistol Pig Maravich]

 We will beat Carolina.....bwahhhhh.  We are going home tonight

[WhatsitHOGabout]

We are going home tonight.

[billmontgomery10]

In 2025 maybe

[wachhog]

You know the enrollment at Wofford?  1,500.

[Pistol Pig Maravich]

I bet these clowns know who wofford is now.  So easy to see this coming.

[Cresthog]

I bet these clowns know who wofford is now.  So easy to see this coming.

See what coming?

[PonderinHog]

See what coming?

Friday   Will the Wofford game be televised

[Biggus Piggus]

I bet these clowns know who wofford is now.  So easy to see this coming.

Hangovers are a bitch, aren't they.

Enough idiot alert. Back to the topic of the thread.

I do not like the matchups for Arkansas in this game.

1. North Carolina is an outstanding offensive rebounding team, one of the very best.
2. Even with all the offensive boards, NC still shoots 51% inside the arc, in part because they get lots of transition baskets.
3. The Tar Heels have been best against teams with so-so perimeter defense, like Arkansas.
4. NC is superb at perimeter defense, allowing 30% shooting.
5. Alandise Harris and Jacorey Williams don't have any good matchups in this one.

Arkansas has a chance to get a good turnover margin in this game, and fouls might be less of an issue, because the Heels don't work the ball in to get fouled much. Hogs need great games from Portis, Qualls and the guards to have a chance. NC has four players shooting 55% or better from 2-point range. They get a lot of easy shots. In crunch time though it's possible to out-execute the Heels.

That said, North Carolina is 8-7 in its last 15 games (including a 4-1 record in its past five). They played a helluva schedule though with eight games against top 50 opponents.

[Doug]

I actually see the Hogs going to the Elite 8, and a POSSIBLE match up with Georgia State. I have no doubt that GSU will make it to the Sweet Sixteen. That's where I start getting concerned for GSU.

I am seriously pining for a Hogs vs Panthers Elite 8 meeting. Puts my two most favorite programs against each other.

[jry04]

I actually see the Hogs going to the Elite 8, and a POSSIBLE match up with Georgia State. I have no doubt that GSU will make it to the Sweet Sixteen. That's where I start getting concerned for GSU.

I am seriously pining for a Hogs vs Panthers Elite 8 meeting. Puts my two most favorite programs against each other.

Georgia State is a good team with Harrow in the lineup. They were extremely lucky that Baylor fell asleep yesterday. I do not see them beating Xavier without Harrow. I will say with 100% certainty they will not get by Arizona.

[Biggus Piggus]

Xavier surprised me with how easily it handled Mississippi. Xavier was 9-9 in the Big East, regular season. Lost to UTEP, Long Beach State and Auburn in nonconference. Fugly.

But their defense made Ole Miss shoot like crap, and then Xavier made 10 threes.

[Doug]

Georgia State is a good team with Harrow in the lineup. They were extremely lucky that Baylor fell asleep yesterday. I do not see them beating Xavier without Harrow. I will say with 100% certainty they will not get by Arizona.

Addendum to your first sentence: GSU is a good team with both Harrow in the line up and RJ doing his usual scoring pattern (this year's average was just under 22 PPG). I wouldn't be surprised if Harrow gets limited minutes tomorrow. All depends on how his strained hamstring is doing. His absence on the court was definitely felt last Saturday (second half), during the conference Tourney Championship game and yesterday. GSU regularly gets into the 65+ - 90 point range when Harrow and RJ are on point.

Xavier is probably amongst the most evenly matched of all teams that Georgia State will face this year.

Let's not forget that GSU is #5 (I believe) of D1 schools in steals and #9 in Opponent shooting percentages (holding opponents to an abysmal 38.1% shooting). We saw evidence of both in yesterday's game.

Back on track... I want the Hogs to make it to at least the Elite 8. Beyond that, anything is gravy for either of my favorite teams.

[Cresthog]

Hangovers are a bitch, aren't they.

Enough idiot alert. Back to the topic of the thread.

I do not like the matchups for Arkansas in this game.

1. North Carolina is an outstanding offensive rebounding team, one of the very best.
2. Even with all the offensive boards, NC still shoots 51% inside the arc, in part because they get lots of transition baskets.
3. The Tar Heels have been best against teams with so-so perimeter defense, like Arkansas.
4. NC is superb at perimeter defense, allowing 30% shooting.
5. Alandise Harris and Jacorey Williams don't have any good matchups in this one.

Arkansas has a chance to get a good turnover margin in this game, and fouls might be less of an issue, because the Heels don't work the ball in to get fouled much. Hogs need great games from Portis, Qualls and the guards to have a chance. NC has four players shooting 55% or better from 2-point range. They get a lot of easy shots. In crunch time though it's possible to out-execute the Heels.

That said, North Carolina is 8-7 in its last 15 games (including a 4-1 record in its past five). They played a helluva schedule though with eight games against top 50 opponents.

Why did they have so much trouble with Harvard last night? They looked salty when I was able to watch at the beginning.

Then I only saw near the end when it was close.

[HawgTrough]

Umm UNC beat the living hell out of us in 2008.

108-77.

meh, 5 TDs and we advance to the sweet 16

[opineonswine]

NC split with Louisville, winning by one point at home and losing by 10 in OT at Louisville.  That is their experience with our style of play.

They are beatable IF we play up to our abilities and don't come out scared to death...and assuming Bobby continues to climb out of his mini-slump.

[HawgnCorona]

Yes, that is correct.  I meant to say, the last time "Hawgball" (as in the system Nolan and Mike play) met up with UNC.  What Pel dished up in 2008 had no resemblance to how we play now.  OP edited to reflect that point now.

Well  when you mention 2008 and JP that is all you need to know why Carolina won by a bigger margin...

However, I do believe it isnt going to be a walk over for NC, like  Miles Simon seems to think. He must be pissed cause his NBA career went no where after he left AZ.

[Piggage]

Umm UNC beat the living hell out of us in 2008.

108-77.

That's what makes me nervous about the game Saturday, knowing that North Carolina will have Tyler Hansbrough, Ty Lawson, and Wayne Ellington and that John Pelphrey will be our coach. Just a bad draw this early in the tournament. Oh well, there's always next year. /sarcasm off/

[poloprince]

Umm UNC beat the living hell out of us in 2008.

108-77.

Man Pel's squad got dragged.

[40MINSOFHELL]

We'll win. This is the game where bell gets on fire and portis finally shows up.

[Cresthog]

Man Heath's squad got dragged.

FIFY.

[Rawker]

Hangovers are a bitch, aren't they.

Enough idiot alert. Back to the topic of the thread.

I do not like the matchups for Arkansas in this game.

1. North Carolina is an outstanding offensive rebounding team, one of the very best.
2. Even with all the offensive boards, NC still shoots 51% inside the arc, in part because they get lots of transition baskets.
3. The Tar Heels have been best against teams with so-so perimeter defense, like Arkansas.
4. NC is superb at perimeter defense, allowing 30% shooting.
5. Alandise Harris and Jacorey Williams don't have any good matchups in this one.

Arkansas has a chance to get a good turnover margin in this game, and fouls might be less of an issue, because the Heels don't work the ball in to get fouled much. Hogs need great games from Portis, Qualls and the guards to have a chance. NC has four players shooting 55% or better from 2-point range. They get a lot of easy shots. In crunch time though it's possible to out-execute the Heels.

That said, North Carolina is 8-7 in its last 15 games (including a 4-1 record in its past five). They played a helluva schedule though with eight games against top 50 opponents.

I commend you on the well-done analysis, now just realize this is the tournament and you can throw EVERY BIT of that crap out of the window.  A bunch of people used analysis like that to predict Iowa State beating UAB and Baylor beating Georgia State.  It's all a bunch a crap here....whichever team hits shots consistently in the tourney, wins.  Hell, doesn't even have to be consistently....it can just be one big run.  Makes my point....you just don't know.  Just watch the game and hang on!

[Pigsfeat]

Well  when you mention 2008 and JP that is all you need to know why Carolina won by a bigger margin...

However, I do believe it isnt going to be a walk over for NC, like  Miles Simon seems to think. He must be pissed cause his NBA career went no where after he left AZ.

Bruce Pearl said that NC would beat us as well. Right after saying that he was an SEC guy!

[lumphog]

We're going to beat N. Carolina and go to the Sweet 16.

I have respect for their program, but this year's team is a poor man's version of Kentucky.  Good - but not "great".  And last year, our team - not nearly as good as this year's - beat UK twice.  I don't think UNC is any better than last year's Kentucky team.

Plus - our best asset in the NCAA tournament is the schedule.  In the second game of a sub-regional or regional, the teams we play don't have much time to scout and/or adjust to our style of play.  Very few of them have played anyone who plays at our pace, and the lack of preparation can really be to our advantage.  How many teams did we see fade in the last 8 minutes of the game during Nolan's various runs to the Final Four?  The same thing will happen to N. Carolina.

As evidence in support of my claim, recall that the last 3 times Nolan's teams (similar style of play) met N. Carolina in Tournament play, we had two wins that were pretty dominant and the sole loss was a 2 point game in the last minute of play; and that was to the Carolina team that went on to win the National Championship!  This year's UNC team is not Championship good, and we improving and will be confident.

People are under-valuing us because we got punked twice - recently - by Kentucky.  But that's just because we were "unlucky" enough to have to play them twice.  If anyone else had played UK twice, they'd likely have the same result.  It's not like we are "fading"; we just played the unchallenged best team and lost, as expected.  So while we might not be the best chance to beat UK, I don't think anyone else will either.  And that says NOTHING negative about our chances against "normal" teams.

Good stuff Wiz.....I agree and as for the 2 KY games, the 1st one was  an old fashion country buttkickin, but the 2nd was alot closer than the score shows....... the zebras were NOT going to let us win. I like our chances in a game 3 without SEC zebras..... Arkansas will have to "TAKE" their respect, like they always have.....and . . . WILL!!!!! God Bless Buddy

[lumphog]

Umm UNC beat the living hell out of us in 2008.

108-77.

While you're doing History lessons........Go back a little farther  History is on our side

[GoHogs1091]

Hangovers are a bitch, aren't they.

Enough idiot alert. Back to the topic of the thread.

I do not like the matchups for Arkansas in this game.

1. North Carolina is an outstanding offensive rebounding team, one of the very best.
2. Even with all the offensive boards, NC still shoots 51% inside the arc, in part because they get lots of transition baskets.
3. The Tar Heels have been best against teams with so-so perimeter defense, like Arkansas.
4. NC is superb at perimeter defense, allowing 30% shooting.
5. Alandise Harris and Jacorey Williams don't have any good matchups in this one.

Arkansas has a chance to get a good turnover margin in this game, and fouls might be less of an issue, because the Heels don't work the ball in to get fouled much. Hogs need great games from Portis, Qualls and the guards to have a chance. NC has four players shooting 55% or better from 2-point range. They get a lot of easy shots. In crunch time though it's possible to out-execute the Heels.

That said, North Carolina is 8-7 in its last 15 games (including a 4-1 record in its past five). They played a helluva schedule though with eight games against top 50 opponents.

The schedule that North Carolina has played this season reminds me of Tom Izzo's type of scheduling that helped prepare Michigan State to get to all of their Final Fours.

It is scheduling that should be admired.  It is a lot better scheduling than playing just SMU, Iowa State, and Dayton.

[Paul]

Bruce Pearl said that NC would beat us as well. Right after saying that he was an SEC guy!

Bruce or any of the "experts" picks don't mean a thing.  But just cuz he's an SEC guy doesn't mean he can't opine about an ACC team beating a SEC team.  That's what he's getting paid for.  I think we'd lose to Wisky 7 out of 10 games but I'm still a Hog fan & would want them to win all 10