Punting at the 35

[nextlevel]

Thanks for sharing all the links!

It's an interesting topic and I suspect there's a lot of truth to it.

Moneyball is interesting with a bunch of "science" behind it, the A's still haven't won the WS...

[swinesation]

Too easy.  Here you go:

http://www.nytimes.com/newsgraphics/2013/11/28/fourth-downs/post.html

See the chart half way down 4th and 10 at the 35 is a go for it.  4th and 4 is a no brainier. 

Haha, awesome. Dude asked for it, and you gave it to him. I agree with you. It makes sense to go for it, ESPECIALLY vs a high scoring offense.

[secfan30]

Too easy.  Here you go:

http://www.nytimes.com/newsgraphics/2013/11/28/fourth-downs/post.html

See the chart half way down 4th and 10 at the 35 is a go for it.  4th and 4 is a no brainier. 

Interesting. Thank you for the link. I did notice that later down it stated that it does depend on the teams strengths.

The 4th and 10 didn't bother me, not going for the other one I did question however.

[Hoggish1]

What's the reasoning for doing this twice? The punter did a good job and downed both of them inside the ten or else it would've been a real disaster. Still why do that against a team that's moving the ball seemingly at will against your defense?

See the reply that is after your post.

[Ramtough]

I guess the fg part of our kicking game will be an issue all year. I think you go for it on 4th under the circumstances. What I mean is that as the coach I would be thinking I need at least 1 conference win to save my job and that's why I'm going for it!!!

[nextlevel]

Ha. They're competitive and make the playoffs consistently with one of the lowest payrolls.

Navy consistently makes a bowl game with one of the lowest, talent wise, rosters by running the triple option.

So Arkansas should run the triple option?

[Russ22]

Ha. They're competitive and make the playoffs consistently with one of the lowest payrolls.

Moneyball works in the long term because of the large sample size of the regular season. Short series causes statistical aberrations.

Ask yourself why the Yankees and Red Sox started buying all of Oakland's players (Giambi, etc.). They didn't necessarily "get" how the A's were doing it, but they dang sure had the money to disrupt it.

[Laughing Hog]

He trusts Irwin-Hill to pin them inside the 10.

Agreed. And he and the coverage did a great job.

[Arkfan]

I will definitely read this. But without knowing the numbers, it seems like teams don't usually score when backed up to their own 5.

Thanks for the link.

With our defense they usually seem to...

[Dumb ole famrboy]

1st punt from the 35 yard line was in 1st Qtr. with score 14 to 7.

2nd punt from 35 yard line (trailing by 7 points) - facing 3rd and 4 Collins runs for a 6 yard loss making it 4th and 10. Any type of positive result on 3rd down Arkansas probably goes for it or attempts fg on 4th down instead of punting. The ball was downed on the 11 and Arkansas defense did force Auburn to punt on the following series.

[MountieDawg]

Why miss a 52-yard field goal? And hand the opponent the football in much better field position? If we had Zach Hocker it's a different story.

If you cant get the FG, the you go for the 1st down.... In the 1st half we averaged 7.2 yards per play.... If you run a play for no gain you give up no more than 35 yards.... If you get the 1st down you are in FG range and have a chance to score a TD.... If we haven't won a conf game in over a year, you do everything you can to put points on the board... OR at least IMO.

[aaronpjones21]

Bielema said in his PC that they had the 25yd line as the max for a Henson FG.

So our FG kicker's range is 42 yards? That's a concern.

[jm]

It was a no win situation. A field goal doesn't really help us much in this game because it was obvious our D couldn't stop them. I would have liked to see the offense go for it on 4th down. I guess a punt does give us some hope of a turnover near the goal line.

[Piggfoot]

Do any of you FG kickers know the effects of humidity on the Ball and the direction of the wind when you're suggesting we kick the FG?

[ricepig]

So our FG kicker's range is 42 yards? That's a concern.

Well, they made some longer ones in practice/scrimmage, but he said going into the game, that was their comfort level.

[Russ22]

Do any of you FG kickers know the effects of humidity on the Ball and the direction of the wind when you're suggesting we kick the FG?

I don't think anyone was suggesting a FG attempt. I think the complaint is that they didn't go for it.

[Hogz87]

Too easy.  Here you go:

http://www.nytimes.com/newsgraphics/2013/11/28/fourth-downs/post.html

See the chart half way down 4th and 10 at the 35 is a go for it.  4th and 4 is a no brainier. 

4th and 10 may be recommended, but seems like it's just barely recommended and I sure as heck wouldn't do it with our passing attack.

As for the 4th and 4, which was really a 4th and 6, there's really not enough extensive data in any research you've linked that shows things such as "What if you have a punter who is a directional wizard?" as someone worded in this thread.

"What if you are playing away at a loud stadium where noise and pressure becomes a factor?"

Math is to be analyzed and put in context, not just read black and white.

[swinesation]

4th and 10 may be recommended, but seems like it's just barely recommended and I sure as heck wouldn't do it with our passing attack.

As for the 4th and 4, which was really a 4th and 6, there's really not enough extensive data in any research you've linked that shows things such as "What if you have a punter who is a directional wizard?" as someone worded in this thread.

"What if you are playing away at a loud stadium where noise and pressure becomes a factor?"

Math is to be analyzed and put in context, not just read black and white.

Wow, dude, he answered your question with a slam dunk. There's no way you're going to accept an answer you don't want to hear. But hey, that's the norm for hogville (and everywhere else on the interwebs).

[BorderPatrol]

There's no way you're going to accept an answer you don't want to hear.

Sounds like you are knowledgable of this tactic.

bp

[OrvilleRedenporker]

I have no issue with the first punt.  The second one is the one I have the problem with.  Actually, my biggest concern of the entire game was the call to run the ball on the 3 and 5 there.  I have less of an issue with the call if it was an audible by BA.  But even on 4th and 7 or 4th and 8, we needed points on that possession.  We had just created a turnover and needed to pick up our defense not put them right back out there.  Possession was much more important at this juncture of the game than field position.  We needed to answer with points in some way, shape or form.

[Peppa Pig]

You could give every Hogville member a million dollars and they would still bitch.

Only one million?

Is this tax free?  If not, is this going to be taxed as income?

Cash or check?  If cash, is it going to be big bills or smaller denominations.  If check, what bank will it be drawn off of?  Because my bank would definitely put a 5 day hold on that and I just don't need that kind of hassle!

[Piggfoot]

nmg

[ricepig]

Only one million?

Is this tax free?  If not, is this going to be taxed as income?

Cash or check?  If cash, is it going to be big bills or smaller denominations.  If check, what bank will it be drawn off of?  Because my bank would definitely put a 5 day hold on that and I just don't need that kind of hassle!

I will be wiring the funds to you from my Nigerian bank account, please forward me your account # and routing number. Many blessings to you on this fine day.

[majp51]

Why miss a 52-yard field goal? And hand the opponent the football in much better field position? If we had Zach Hocker it's a different story.

Right, but the bigger question is why make it punt to FG.

When Auburn was running things right this weekend we could have pinned them at the 1 yard line, and all that would mean is they went 99 yards instead of say 70.

So I get not having any confidence in the FG unit. What I don't get is not trying for any points at all. Shoot if you are going to punt, can we at least line up for a play, try to get the opponent offside and then quick kick it?

[Hogz87]

Wow, dude, he answered your question with a slam dunk. There's no way you're going to accept an answer you don't want to hear. But hey, that's the norm for hogville (and everywhere else on the interwebs).

Not really sure what you're talking about