Score differentials by player in the Georgia game, a defeat by the tune of 81-59...

Waithe 57-65, Hogs outscored 1.1:1
Wade 45-51, 1.1:1
Young 44-52, 1.2:1
Nobles 48-61, 1.3:1
Mickelson 31-43, 1.4:1
Abron 15-22, 1.5:1
Madden 27-44, 1.6:1
Scott 20-39, 2.0:1
Sanchez 8-24, 3.0:1

Arkansas's points scored per minute while the player was on the court:

1.9 Waithe
1.8 Young
1.6 Wade
1.5 Abron, Nobles
1.4 Madden
1.3 Mickelson, Scott
0.7 Sanchez

Arkansas's points allowed per minute while the player was in the lineup:

1.8 Wade
1.9 Mickelson
2.0 Nobles, Sanchez
2.1 Young
2.2 Abron, Madden, Waithe
2.4 Scott

Individual scoring margins in the Tennessee game, a 77-58 defeat...

Scott 34-34, even
Nobles 41-46, Hogs outscored 1.1:1
Mickelson 45-53, 1.2:1
Mitchell 13-17, 1.3:1
Wade 45-62, 1.4:1
Abron 16-24, 1.5:1
Waithe 33-52, 1.6:1
Madden 14-22, 1.6:1
Young 40-68, 1.7:1

Arkansas's points scored per minute while the player was in...

1.6 Scott, Waithe
1.5 Mickelson, Wade, Young
1.4 Nobles
1.3 Abron
1.2 Madden
0.9 Mitchell

Arkansas's points allowed per minute while the player was playing...

1.2 Mitchell
1.5 Nobles
1.6 Scott
1.8 Mickelson, Madden
2.0 Abron, Wade
2.5 Waithe, Young

The lineup when Arkansas fell behind 18-6 was Abron, Waithe, Wade, Young and Nobles. It went to 23-8 with Mickelson, Mitchell, Wade, Young and Madden. Rest of the game, Arkansas trailed 54-50. But also during the rest of the game, the Hogs were outscored 45-32 when Young was on the court.

In these two bad road defeats, where the Razorbacks' defense failed, the players who were on court during the worst of it were Madden and Waithe. Not sure what that means, because I don't believe the numbers speak for themselves in this case.

http://www.arkansassports360.com/29365/jim-harris-razorbacks-have-too-many-questions-to-be-in-2012-national-title-talk

Jim Harris of Arkansas Sports 360, longtime friend of Hogville and yours truly, should-be-friend of anyone who cares about the Razorbacks, wrote a piece about whether the footballers should be seriously considered as contenders in the upcoming season.

I had a few comments on Jim's article, and he suggested I post them.

1)   Knile Davis has a very good chance of returning to peak form. Even if he doesn’t, Arkansas signed some very good recruits, and tailback is a position where good freshmen can help. They got three who are good enough.
2)   Jake Bequette’s leadership looked best in the brief span that Paul Haynes was in charge of the defense. Before that, Jake was an absolutely horrible run defender. Against the wrong type of offense, Bequette was lost.
3)   Calling Tramain Thomas a steady safety would have been apropos in 2010.
4)   Let’s see what the secondary looks like after spring. Haynes wants to have a run-stopper at strong safety. That means Eric Bennett will be the free safety. I can see him replacing Thomas, easy. Improving on him? Let’s hope. But finding the right guy to play strong safety, there’s a challenge.
5)   Why did you feel driven to mention the existence of Darius Winston on this planet? Is he suddenly going to start playing?
6)   I didn’t remember Jerry Franklin and Jerico Nelson for their big-play ability as much as for their ability to make tackles 15 yards downfield.
7)   Biggest difference in the defense we’ll see, I expect, will be the play of the entire defensive line. Amazing what completely changing the reads + junking Willy’s complex crap did in the Cotton Bowl.
8 )   I am more concerned about the passing game than anything else on this football team. Not worrying about the defense. The big question is whether anybody is good enough to get open against Alabama and LSU, and if so, are they big enough to avoid getting brutalized the way Adams and Wright were. Just watch, both guys will measure out at the Combine at 5-9, 175. Going bigger at receiver is great if anybody can get open.
9)   Everytime I see the term DGB, my thought is DHB. Darrius Heyward-Bey. Did you realize he had 64 catches in 2011? Three years isn’t too long to wait, is it? Think of how long the Raiders have been waiting for McFadden to pay off. Anyway, I’m thinking it might have taken a while for DGB to pay off, given the level of his competition in high school.
10)   If I were to bet on one freshman receiver making a mark, it would be Keon Hatcher from Owasso. Nice player who isn’t obsessed with track or hoop in the offseason. Already a hoss. Big hands. He had 100 catches, 1,600 yards, 21 touchdowns last season. Unreal. The team revolved around him to a degree you rarely see. Kinda like DGB.
11)   Will Tyler Wilson make the transition to actually being allowed to call audibles, instead of having the whole team look to the sideline for adjustments?

Two-point field goal percentages in Arkansas's road games this season so far...

Arkansas 29%, UConn 56%
Arkansas 42%, Oklahoma 53%
Arkansas 43%, Mississippi 58%
Arkansas 43%, Kentucky 64%
Arkansas 46%, Alabama 66%
Arkansas 45%, LSU 49%
Arkansas 38%, Georgia 57%
Arkansas 48%, Tennessee 63%

One wondered what Mike Anderson could do with a bunch of offense-first players recruited by John Pelphrey, who almost never thought about defense in recruiting. Many of the baskets surrendered by the Razorbacks on the road were wide-open layups by guards. The slight-of-Hogs also have been brutalized by good low post players.

Three-point field goal shooting percentages in those road games...

Arkansas 36%, UConn 63%
Arkansas 26%, Oklahoma 50%
Arkansas 32%, Mississippi 0%
Arkansas 33%, Kentucky 27%
Arkansas 35%, Alabama 13%
Arkansas 23%, LSU 15%
Arkansas 36%, Georgia 45%
Arkansas 25%, Tennessee 48%

Perimeter defense has not been a consistent problem, but at times it has been terrible. In games against opponents that don't score much from outside, Arkansas failed to capitalize on the opening.

Field goal scoring differentials on the road...

UConn: Arkansas was outscored 46-32 from 2-pt range, had a 24-15 edge on 3-pointers
OU: Outscored 36-26 inside, 24-21 from outside
Miss: Outscored 52-36 inside, won 18-0 from outside
UK: Outscored 58-36 inside, won 15-9 outside
Bama: Outscored 46-36 inside, outscored the Tide 18-6 from long range
LSU: Outscored 44-40 inside, topped 'em just 9-6 on treys
Georgia: Outscored 42-18 inside, tied 27-27 from the perimeter
Tenn: Won the inside scoring 42-34, but outscored 33-9 from outside the arc

Tennessee scored on Arkansas even more easily than Kentucky did, which says volumes about how little the Razorbacks accomplished on defense in the first half of this game.

Missed 2-point field goal attempts by game:

Arkansas 39, UConn 18
Arkansas 18, Oklahoma 16
Arkansas 24, Ole Miss 19
Arkansas 24, Kentucky 16
Arkansas 21, Alabama 12
Arkansas 24, LSU 23
Georgia 16, Arkansas 15
Arkansas 23, Tennessee 10

When the Hogs are missing more than 20 inside shots per game + opponents in the teens, Arkansas would have to dominate offensive rebounding just to maintain enough possessions to stay even.

Missed 3-point field goal attempts by game...

Arkansas 14, UConn 3
Arkansas 20, OU 8
Arkansas 13, Ole Miss 7
Arkansas 10, Kentucky 8
Alabama 13, Arkansas 11
LSU 11, Arkansas 10
Arkansas 16, Georgia 11
Tennessee 12, Arkansas 9

Put them all together, total missed field goal attempts...

Arkansas 53, UConn 21 (+32)
Arkansas 38, OU 24 (+14)
Arkansas 37, Ole Miss 26 (+11)
Arkansas 34, Kentucky 24 (+10)
Arkansas 32, Alabama 25 (+7)
Arkansas 34, LSU 34 (even)
Arkansas 31, Georgia 27 (+4)
Arkansas 32, Tennessee 22 (+10)

This breakdown makes the LSU, Georgia and Bama games look like wasted opportunities. LSU won by 6. Alabama won by 6. Georgia won by 22. Twenty-two?

Turnovers in road games...

UConn 15, Arkansas 12
OU 17, Arkansas 13
Ole Miss 23, Arkansas 13
Kentucky 12, Arkansas 11
Alabama 17, Arkansas 16
Arkansas 19, LSU 16
Georgia 11, Arkansas 8
Arkansas 18, Tennessee 14

The Razorbacks managed a strong turnover margin in one road game, at Oxford. The rest of the time, their pressure defense has accomplished little while allowing torrents of easy baskets.

Arkansas ranks first in the SEC, conference games only, in 3-point field goal % defense, 29%. Much of that's due to horrible shooting in five games by Ole Miss, Bama and LSU, which don't shoot well against anyone.

But the Hogs are a distant last in SEC league play when it comes to 2-point field goal % defense, allowing an embarrassing 56% -- including 59% on the road. It's like Rotnei Clarke's freshman and sophomore years all over again.

Opponents' missed 2-point shots per SEC game:

24.0 Kentucky
22.9 Vanderbilt
21.5 Ole Miss
21.2 Mississippi State
21.2 Tennessee
20.3 Alabama
20.3 LSU
19.4 Florida
18.9 Auburn
16.5 Arkansas
15.8 South Carolina
14.4 Georgia

Opponents' missed 3-point shots per SEC game:

14.4 Ole Miss
13.4 Auburn
13.1 Vanderbilt
12.3 Arkansas
12.2 Georgia
11.5 Alabama
11.5 Kentucky
10.9 LSU
10.9 Tennessee
10.7 Mississippi State
10.7 South Carolina
10.0 Florida

2-point field goal % defense in SEC games:

39.7% Kentucky
42.5% Tennessee
42.8% Vanderbilt
44.2% Ole Miss
44.5% Auburn
45.2% Alabama
46.5% Florida
48.3% Mississippi State
48.4% LSU
51.8% South Carolina
52.0% Georgia
55.9% Arkansas

3-point field goal % defense, SEC games:

28.9% Arkansas
29.8% Alabama
30.7% Vanderbilt
31.3% Georgia
31.7% Kentucky
32.6% Tennessee
33.3% LSU
34.2% Ole Miss
34.4% Auburn
39.6% Florida
40.1% Mississippi State
40.4% South Carolina

The top three teams in 3-point baskets are Florida, Vanderbilt and Mississippi State. Arkansas with its great perimeter defense at Bud Walton Arena might end up with three wins over those teams.

Offense: 2-point field goal percentage, SEC games only

52.5% Kentucky
50.8% Alabama
50.2% Florida
49.1% Mississippi State
48.7% Vanderbilt
46.9% Ole Miss
46.7% Arkansas
45.5% LSU
45.3% Tennessee
43.3% South Carolina
41.8% Auburn
40.4% Georgia

3-point field goal shooting % in SEC games:

41.7% Vanderbilt
38.8% Kentucky
38.7% Mississippi State
36.1% Tennessee
35.4% Arkansas
35.4% Florida
32.5% Ole Miss
32.2% Georgia
30.3% South Carolina
28.9% Auburn
28.5% LSU
27.1% Alabama

All this makes the Georgia game look like a real oddball.

Finally...

In SEC games, Arkansas has a defensive rebounding percentage of 63%, 11th in the league. The Hogs' offensive rebounding percentage is 27.5%, dead last.

To get only a +3.3 turnover margin out of this (for so-called pressure defense sacrifices rebounding) is wholly inadequate.

With far too little muscle and height, no skilled back-to-the-basket player, very ordinary outside shooting, and few strong man-to-man defenders, the Razorbacks have road problems that are pretty easy to understand.

I dug up some statistics to portray where the Arkansas basketball teams rate among their peers on several stylistic and skill measures.

3-point field goal percentage

% of teams in women's Division I shooting:
>40% -- 1%
>35% -- 13%
<30% -- 35%
Arkansas's 3-pt %: 27.5% (well below national average)

% of teams in men's Division I shooting:
>40% -- 6%
>35% -- 50%
<30% -- 3%
Arkansas's 3-pt %: 34.9% (in line with national average)

Free throw percentage

% of women's teams shooting:
>80% -- 1%
>75% -- 8%
>70% -- 37%
<65% -- 23%
Arkansas's FT %: 64.9% (well below national average)

% of men's teams shooting:
>80%: 1 out of 338
>75%: 6%
>70%: 40%
<65%: 21%
Arkansas's FT %: 68.4% (near national average)

Rebounding margin

% of women's teams:
>+10: 3%
>+5: 15%
<0: 49%
Arkansas: +4.8, well above national average

% of men's teams:
>+10: 1%
>+5: 14%
<0: 44%
Arkansas: -2.4, well below national average

Turnovers per game

% of women's teams:
<15: 11%
>20: 15%
Arkansas: 15, much better than national average

% of men's teams:
<15: 74%
>20: 0% (no team averaging more than 19)
Arkansas: 13, modestly better than national average

Turnover margin

% of women's teams:
>+7: 3%
>+3: 16%
<0: 48%
Arkansas: +4.4, far better than national average

% of men's teams:
>+7: 1 out of 338 teams
>+3: 9%
<0: 42%
Arkansas: +4.8, far better than national average

Both Arkansas teams excel at producing strongly positive turnover margins. Both are probably a few shooters away from being elite. The men could stand to watch how the women manage to rebound and force turnovers too.

I have been trying to understand what Bobby Petrino has done that Houston Nutt couldn't, and a review of recruiting does not explain a lot.

Arkansas' roster by class, as it will look entering spring practice (ex-walk-ons, and remember the freshmen don't show up till August):

OL -- 1 senior, 3 juniors, 3 sophomores, 3 redshirt freshmen, 2 true freshmen

Nominally, numbers are divided well between guards and tackles, but the Razorbacks need some of the tackles to develop so that the level of competition improves. Failure to sign another tackle was a surprise.

TE -- 1 senior, 1 junior, 0 sophomores, 2 redshirt freshmen, 2 true freshmen

Petrino has shuffled a number of players through the tight end depth chart in search of depth, which remains elusive. The loss of the late Garrett Uekman was devastating. Two freshmen were added, including one who will be in spring practice.

WR -- 1 senior, 4 juniors, 2 sophomores, 1 redshirt freshman, 3 true freshmen

Arkansas tried to sign a huge class of receivers because the past three classes did not bring in many sure things. Recruiting results prompted more questions than answers.

TB/FB -- 3 seniors, 1 junior, 0 sophomores, 1 redshirt freshman, 3 true freshmen

The Hogs could be without their top three tailbacks after 2012, which made this a critical need in the latest recruiting class. The 2013 backfield will be all freshmen and sophomores.

QB -- 1 senior, 1 junior, 0 sophomores, 1 redshirt freshman, 0 new signees

Like receiver, quarterback has been a remarkably difficult position for Arkansas under Petrino to recruit. This is nothing new to Razorback football, as the QB depth charts have been threadbare for decades. The presence of a coach's son on the roster, with another possibly coming next year, might be a recruiting obstacle. It's also a big windfall.

DE -- 2 seniors, 2 juniors, 1 sophomore, 2 redshirt freshmen, 4 true freshmen

Mass recruiting at a position with seven returnees suggests a lack of success in previous recruiting. But some of these players are expected to grow out of the position.

DT -- 3 seniors, 3 juniors, 0 sophomores, 1 redshirt freshman, 1 true freshman

The late get of a player who had been destined for Alabama was a boon. A couple of the 10 ends might wind up here.

LB -- 4 seniors, 1 junior, 2 sophomores, 2 redshirt freshmen, 3 true freshmen

Eager to see the quality of the redshirts, and the new freshmen are intriguing. Two senior starters are a good foundation.

CB -- 1 senior, 1 junior, 1 sophomore, 2 redshirt freshmen, 3 true freshmen

The corner positions will see intense competition for playing time. Probably one of the true frosh will get a shot at joining the rotation. Cornerback will be a featured position on the Arkansas roster in the future.

S -- 0 seniors, 1 junior, 2 sophomores, 2 redshirt freshmen, 1 true freshman

Recruiting added nobody who will be ready to play in 2012. I suspect Haynes will try to peel somebody off the wide receiver roster.

Special teams -- 1 senior, 1 junior

Nothing going on here. Need to find another punter and kicker.

Class numbers:

18 seniors, 19 juniors, 11 sophomores, 17 redshirt freshmen, 22 freshman signees = 87

Which means two underclassmen will go bye-bye after spring practices.

As far as recruiting goes, Petrino has not done anything that topped Nutt's performance by a significant margin. The likelihood of Petrino recruits to crap out has been virtually the same as Nutt managed. Quality and depth remain precariously thin at vital positions such as left offensive tackle, quarterback, and safety. This year's crop of newcomers will aid what had been little depth at tailback, tight end, linebacker, and cornerback.

What Petrino has accomplished thus far, despite ordinary recruiting results and frequent staff turnover, has been built on the fundamental reconstruction of the offensive system. No longer does the U of A carry permanent limitations of an offense that would never be attractive to passers and receivers. That leaves a great deal of room for improvement in the football program.

Hiring Petrino the way Arkansas did -- prying him out of an NFL head coaching job in December -- had a cost. The controversy made it hard for Petrino to hire a staff of assistants. Petrino has been cleaning that wound ever since. The turnover and the need to make changes show up in the depth chart.

But look at the most recent additions:

Steve Caldwell -- longtime ends coach at Tennessee.
Kevin Peoples -- Dline coach at Arkansas State.
Paul Haynes -- secondary coach/coordinator at Ohio State, NFL experience.
Taver Johnson -- cornerbacks coach at Ohio State, NFL experience.

Petrino moved to upgrade the recruiting ability of his defensive staff while also finding assistants with a track record of sending players to the pros.

The way the 2012 recruiting class closed, Arkansas added high-class talent many of the positions where they had struggled in the past.

A lingering exception is at quarterback. As far as top threes go, the Hogs are in great shape with senior Tyler Wilson, junior Brandon Mitchell, and redshirt freshman Brandon Allen. A lot of pressure rests on Allen's shoulders for the long-term success of the Razorbacks. Recruits could understandably fear that Bobby Allen's son would have a leg up on the QB position. What if he got hurt? The Petrinos are going to have to do a fantastic selling job to get another high-potential name on the QB depth chart. Or just get Austin Allen and go with it.

Summary thoughts:

Arkansas desperately needed to bring in some SEC-class offensive tackles, and Petrino should re-evaluate his recruiting strategy.

The receiver crop was less than expected, giving a reprieve to possibly the entire list of returnees.

Sure are going to be a bunch of defensive ends 'round here, hmm. Which probably means there won't be.

You really don't want to have to cram a bunch of defensive tackles into one recruiting class, given that they are so hard to get in any season. Signing one in 2012, converting another from end before long, lessens the urgency in 2013.

The running game will be loaded with talent, and I'd sure like to see a lot more Kiero Small.

For the fifth straight year, Arkansas's secondary is going to begin a season looking significantly different than it began the previous one. Two returning starters make for a good start, though.

Sure is a lot of flux for a team that's supposed to be a contender. Petrino will have to do a magnificent coaching job to make 2012 "the" year.

But if 2012 isn't "the" year, I wouldn't be worried about 2013. Arkansas won 10+ games in consecutive seasons, built on a lot of erratic recruiting, and recruiting might be starting to change.

With 11 players for now in next year's sophomore class vs. 18 seniors, Arkansas has room to add some junior college players in 2013.

Arkansas is on track to have slightly under 25% of its scholarship players in 2012 being homegrown. It's a major disadvantage to get so little talent at the low cost of in-state recruiting. Our coaches had to work incredibly hard to come up with 20 out-of-state signees in 2012, 24 in 2011. That's 22% more than Alabama over the same span. And more than a third of the Tide's out-of-staters came from closely bordering states (Georgia, Mississippi, Tennessee).